Thursday Forecast

60 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)
The final 5 days of September will continue the up and down temperature but mainly dry weather pattern as the only disturbances come in the form of weak fronts passing by this evening and Saturday night, with high pressure in control otherwise.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine this morning. Clouding up this afternoon with showers arriving west to east late-day. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers departing west to east early. Clearing thereafter. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few rain showers possible. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to N overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)
Upper high pressure surges into the Northeast again briefly to start October with more above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather, but a round of showers/thunderstorms later October 2 may be followed by a push of much cooler air around October 3-4 then moderation again by the end of the period as the overall pattern still has not changed much.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)
Still somewhat of an up and down temperature pattern and only brief shower threats expected. Canada will be trending colder, not only as it is seasonally what happens but the pattern will support colder air there. This will be watched but so far not seeing solid signs of big pattern changes.

60 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    We NEED that killing frost. Yet another EEE death yesterday.
    BRING on the COLD! The sooner, the better.

    1. We sure do. And yet there is a vaccine that was created in the mid 1980s that we think is too expensive to test.

      1. Good morning, and thanks, TK!

        I heard Rob Carolan say this morning that our EEE outbreak is the worst since the 1950s. He also said that there are no immediate signs of a killing frost/freeze.

        1. I remember that EEE outbreak. As children
          playing outside, we were always afraid that we
          might catch the “Sleeping Sickness” as it was called back then. Some sleep for some, the eternal rest. Very sad.

          1. Indeed. Middleborough lost a 9-year old boy in 2006 to EEE and one of my current students lost his dad just a couple of months ago as a result of the disease.
            Middleborough always seems to be at Ground Zero of the EEE outbreak.

            1. So sorry to hear.
              My Sister In Law has a place on a lake
              in Lakeville and there were many times
              that we would turn down an invitation
              due to the threat of EEE.

          2. I recall my mom being terrified. And yes, sleeping sickness is what she called it too. I remember the trucks coming around to spray.

    2. I recently read one of the main reasons for the outbreak is MA is, especially SE MA has one of the largest areas of natural swamp land in the US. The birds that call those areas their natural habitat are the source and the mosquitoes carry. The population of birds has a new cycle and has zero immunity.

  6. Thanks TK.

    SPC has added a marginal risk of severe weather over SNE today. I agree with the move. Very strong forcing with this system moving through. Wind fields aloft are screaming fast. A lack of moisture and instability will limit the overall threat. However, a band of showers, probably with very little lightning, could be capable of locally damaging wind gusts this evening. Best chance looks to be over CT/RI where slightly more instability should exist.

    1. It explains why we are still green and water is pretty full. I did notice the other day that West River in Uxbridge is lower. I have not driven by the lakes in Sutton for several days.

        1. I listen to ZLX in the morning and Kevin Karlson said that Spirit and Zeppelin appeared together in the early days. Page stole the riffs and medley. Pretty obvious, I’d say.

          1. Agree.
            I mostly listen to WERS on the way in…
            While sometimes flipping over to WZLZ or WXRV the “River”. 🙂

  10. In the course of human history, the mosquito has caused hundreds of millions of human deaths worldwide, malaria being the major disease with others such as Dengue fever being significant contributors to human fatalities. Roughly 700,000 deaths still occur every year from mosquito-borne diseases. EEE and West Nile virus are dangerous, rare diseases. That is, they impact relatively few humans. But, the threat is real. This article explains how the mosquito is our apex predator:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/27/opinion/sunday/mosquitoes-malaria-zika-history.html

    1. Horrifying read. Disgusting little shits! Stomp em all out!

      Was bitten twice while in Marshfield last month. First time I have
      been bitten in years and years, even while fishing.

  11. Nice slug of rain heading this way. Will it be like that when it gets to the coast?
    Who knows, usually not. We shall see.

  12. Its interesting looking at the 500 mb flow on today’s 12z EURO.

    Most of that cooling after October 3rd comes from a high bridging to our north in SE Canada. The surface flow around it drives cool air into New England from the north and northeast.

    But at 500 mb, there’s really no projected trof anymore. The SE ridge hangs strong, maybe retrogrades a bit into the Ohio Valley. That ridge in the southeast is going to be stubborn. Holds the 20C, 850 mb isotherm down there right thru day 10 now.

  15. Agree with WxW on the best instability and risk for damaging wind gusts. No “outbreak”. Just a few instances where it may occur. Lightning will be the vast exception.

    Cooler tomorrow, warmer Saturday, cooler Sunday, warming trend Mon-Wed next week but no 90. We may get to the lower 80s Wednesday. Looks like a shot of near to below normal temperatures to follow that. The upper pattern may show a ridge coming back, but the surface pattern grabs air from Canada with a chilly source region and drives it south southwestward from the Maritime Provinces to New England.,

        1. It will be a relatively dry air mass, so probably not much more than what we saw last time we had that set-up with some ocean-effect cloudiness. It’s not the type of air mass that the low levels saturate.

          We are going to have a pretty decent foliage season I believe. The current dry spell should not have had a chance to stress trees out very much.

          1. Take about 6 off of that.

            Eric & Harvey were forecasting a reasonable # for that day last night. I still feel the same way. It’s not going to head for 90.

  17. Torrential rain and wind on the soccer field in Coventry CT. It’s been pouring buckets for 30 min now. Can’t believe they are playing through this.

  18. Ours was torrential but smaller drops if that makes sense. Wind was crazy. It didn’t last as long as Marks. Even shorter time, I can’t believe anyone was playing in it

    A whopping 0.04

  19. 0.71” of rain in the last 90 minutes and still pouring…

    And we have secured yet another month of above average precipitation…. 3.70” on September.

  20. Well I guess I learned that pretty much nothing short of lightning stops a middle school soccer game. It was a complete wind driven deluge the entire second half. Kids were drenched and freezing. I was holding my umbrella sideways to try and stay dry. Kept dry from the waste up but even my legs and feet got soaked. Fun times. At least they won and the coach gave them tomorrow off from practice!

    1. My son’s team played (and won) a championship game in such conditions. 😉 It was kind of fun. 😉

      1. It was fun watching it come in on the radar and being out in it for the first 5-10 minutes. After 40 minutes of it though, it got old real quick 🙂

        1. I coached a youth soccer game in the first rainbands of Hurricane Irene in 2011. We made it into the second half until the visibility got so bad because of the downpours the ref couldn’t see the play anymore and it was called.

      2. Daughter showed in pour rain more times than I can count. Always fun managing a horse in mud footing. I agree with Mark..fun watching arrive…..not so fun when it sticks around

  21. U.S. got absolutely hammered by England in the rugby world cup, 45-7. It’s being played in rain-soaked and windy Japan. They’ve been dealing with lots of rain in recent weeks, from typhoons and run-of-the-mill Pacific lows. I think that kind of weather favors the English and Irish.

    The U.S. does terribly on the international rugby stage. You’d think that America could at least compete a bit with many of the athletes on the U.S. squad having played both football and rugby. Alas. I think some of it has to do with the almost continuous nature of rugby. It’s a real grind with very few breaks. Also, no time-outs or two minute `warnings’ (I remember asking my father many years ago when I was a child why the word “warning,” and he replied “they’re warning you that more ads are on the way”).

  23. I feel your pain mark, that was last season’s soccer matches for my son, cold and rainy for most of the matches. I think the parents on the sideline have it worse because at least the kids are running around keeping their body temps up, we are just standing on the sidelines freezing. Nice to come away with a Win though!!!
    Btw .38” in Sturbridge from this system. Some wind but not too bad.

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