Friday Forecast

62 Comments

6:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Low pressure offshore will be close enough to impact the region into early Saturday before pulling away. The most “widespread” rain in areas previously kept dry will occur today and this evening. By Saturday, as the low is on its way out the wind shifts more to the north with slight improvement in the weather, but still early rain shower risks and lots of clouds during the day. By Sunday, we’re into a westerly air flow with fair and milder weather, which will last through Columbus Day Monday, except for a quick-moving disturbance that will sneak through Sunday night with a risk of a passing rain shower. High pressure will control the weather Tuesday, another nice day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, most numerous southeastern MA/RI. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas. TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening, tapering to scattered rain showers overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible morning. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)
The trough spoken about for the middle of the 6-10 day period on yesterday’s update will be moving along and likely produce its wet weather threat October 16 before moving east and leaving the region in mainly dry weather for the remainder of the period, with a brief shot of cool air followed by a warm-up as a high pressure ridge builds over the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)
Eastward shift of features this period should bring a progressive trough eastward, some unsettled weather at times and a cooling trend. Not likely to have a long stretch of wet weather, just not easy to time when the threat may be this far in advance.

62 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. I’d say at best 50/50. HRRR has been ok with this and it has a band of moisture in the region around that time. Always a chance it could be just far enough one direction or another to be in a drier slot. But 50/50 is as optimistic as I can get.

  10. Your right Tom this looks like it’s trying to become a tropical system, sort of a hybrid at the moment. If you look at this mornings satellite it seems to me that along with the uptick in convection around the center there is also some decent outflow, combine that with sitting stationary over the Gulf Stream as TK mentioned, could it become a warm core tropical storm? My question is if that happens would The broader circulation of this large nor- Easter tighten towards the center creating less of a wind maker for those of us further away from the storm?

    1. A transition to tropical should, over time, tighten the wind field closer to the center.

      However, because of the strong high to the north, the pressure gradient btwn the 2 might keep the wind field expansive to the north of the low pressure.

      1. Tom – both Pete and Eric said this has a set up very similar to the perfect storm. I want to be very careful to say that I am both paraphrasing so my interpretation could easily be misleading. They both also said in no way is it the perfect storm. Just a similar setup.

        As an aside I cannot find where it was mentioned. I think it was in their comment section but it is not important. Eric did say this today

        Eric Fisher
        @ericfisher
        ·
        1h
        You could probably name our nor’easter as a subtropical storm this morning. Convection fired up around the center with an eye feature popping

        TK – PLEASE TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF

        2. Thank you Vicki. I am, actually with some live music therapy. I am typing this from the B train of the Green Line on my way to a Sara Bareilles concert.

  12. Tom & South, from NHC

    Special outlook issued to update discussion for the system southeast
    of New England.

    1. UPDATED: Early morning visible satellite imagery indicates that
    shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to become better
    organized near the center of a low pressure system located about 200
    miles south-southeast of Martha’s Vineyard. If this trend continues,
    advisories will likely be issued for this system as a subtropical
    storm later this morning. Upper-level winds are expected to increase
    over the system during the weekend while the low weakens and moves
    away from the northeastern United States. This low is already
    producing storm-force winds, and is expected to continue meandering
    off the coast through tonight, producing strong winds, coastal
    flooding, heavy rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the
    mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coasts. Additional
    information on this system can be found in local products and High
    Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

        1. No updates. They are all headed to MD for Mac’s sister’s celebration of life. I am unable to attend because of an ongoing, but not serious health concern that is just now improving after too many months. It was one of the hardest decisions I’ve made. Two of my kids and their families are there so that makes me smile!

          I will probably get some updates tonight or tomorrow.

  17. From Judah Cohen
    North American #snow cover is getting lots of attention but #Siberian snow cover has been advancing impressively as well so far this month. Currently Eurasian snow cover extent is second highest behind 2014 since 2009.

      1. What ever it is, I got 0.08 inch of it. 🙂

        0.08 inch today
        0.13 yesterday
        0.06 Wednesday

        Storm total to this point: 0.27 inches

        a far cry from the NWS forecast of 4.38 inches or whatever it was.

  24. NBC Boston reported that the widespread damaging wind was coming to an end.

    ….I wasn’t aware that widespread damaging wind was occurring.

  25. According to Eric, no widespread frost until the end of the month.

    EEE threat still there for awhile longer I guess.

  26. I could definitely go on and on about my thoughts on the evolution of this storm, the forecasts, messaging, science issues, etc. The bottom line from my perspective though:

    *Rainfall forecasts for SNE (mainly from NWS and TV mets) were extremely poor, and badly misguided from a perspective of climatology, which should have made clear that 4-8″+ totals were highly unlikely. In addition, even had the higher totals verified over southeast MA, I don’t believe the freshwater impacts would’ve been overly significant. Hi-res and even global models did a terrible job with QPF, and should serve as a strong caution heading into the winter about buying into extreme QPF forecasts, *even when most or all of the models agree on it*.

    *While rainfall forecasts busted, the storm itself was (is) no joke. One look at satellite imagery over the past 24 hours will tell you that we’re lucky this didn’t back in 150 miles further northwest. The increase in wind/wave/surge impacts would’ve been dramatic. This could’ve been worse, and we should be glad for that.

    *The NHC decision to classify the storm as subtropical appears to be the correct one based on satellite imagery and core phase space diagrams. Not that it really matters at all in terms of impacts. As I mentioned the other day, this whole evolution is in some ways (not all) a discount version of the 1991 Perfect Storm. Looking at the CIPS Analogs over the past couple days, that period (~10/30-11/2 of 1991) has stood out as one of the best matches to the current pattern.

    *Ultimately, when all is said and done, the only significant land impacts from this storm will be coastal flooding and beach erosion, mainly in the mid-Atlantic and particularly along the New Jersey shore, where impacts in that regard have been considerable. One more impactful tide cycle to get through over the next few hours.

    2. I agree with all your points, and especially about the similarity, pattern-wise, with 1991. People hear that and many of the automatically assume a storm of the exact impact and magnitude will occur. While that certainly could be the case to some degree, as you said we were lucky that the evolution and resultant storm location was as it was this time, further offshore. While it would not have matched 1991 it would have been far worse than what ended up happening.

      My forecast was based on the thought that the entire thing would evolve further SE than model forecasts had, but I’d have been ready to hit it a lot harder if I thought we had a different outcome imminent.

      Onto the next challenge!

  27. In south Plymouth camping. Thick rain, but we have a tall canopy and a fire going. Sites are very wet. We’ll get through tonight and enjoy the improving weekend weather.

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