Saturday Forecast

10:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
As we progress through the heart of meteorological autumn, so far we have seen nothing very much out of the ordinary. We’ve had some early cool shots in a September that was dominated by milder weather thanks to a fairly stable pattern that placed a strong ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, but close enough to exert its influence on the Northeast quite often. During the first 10+ days of October we have seen a few changes, along with a “typically atypical” occurrence. I don’t really like to think of the type of storm we have just seen as atypical, because that’s not really the right word. We’ve seen that set-up and slight variations of it many times. It was a storm system cut off from the jet stream. It may be more common to see such occurrences in the spring, but it’s very far from unheard of in the autumn. But more importantly, while the system evolved far enough offshore to have the impacts that I was anticipating, we did dodge a bullet as the system would have had more significant impact being closer to the coast. However, we likely would not have seen the intensification had it been closer to the coast as it was drawing on water from the gulf stream for its partial transition toward a tropical system. In fact, NHC felt the transition was enough to give it a name, Melissa. That would not have happened with a storm center a couple hundred miles closer to the coast, however it would have compensated for that somewhat by tightening up the pressure gradient and causing more wind and resultant impacts. Either way, the storm is now heading away from the area, and we do have lingering effects in the form of plentiful low level moisture with lots of drizzle and areas of fog to start out today. But as the day goes on, we will bring more and more dry air back in from the north and conditions will improve, at least in terms of ending the drizzle/fog. As far as clearing goes, that will be tough to really get all the way to the coast, but interior areas should start to see at least breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Any breaks/sun closer to the coast will be a bonus. The dry air will expand and take over the entire region during tonight and Sunday as we finally get into a much friendlier westerly air flow. But Sunday night, trough will swing rapidly across the region and may produce some passing rain showers, lingering into very early Columbus Day Monday, before fair weather returns for another nice day. Then more changes as we sneak in one more nice day Tuesday under the influence of high pressure, before a quick-moving low pressure system and vigorous associated upper level trough moves in during Wednesday when the weather will go downhill…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle gradually diminishing during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon but breaks of sun developing at least interior areas. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH but gusts 20-30 MPH especially eastern coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers late night. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers eastern areas early morning. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Highs 56-63. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)
After a midweek system departs, look for a windy/chilly October 17 but with dry weather, a breezy/cool October 18 with more dry weather, and then a continuation of dry weather but with a warming trend over the October 19-20 weekend and possibly through October 21 as well as a high pressure ridge slides across the eastern US and pushes the jet stream northward.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)
General west to east flow pattern continues early in the period when a trough from the west should bring rain showers then a shot of much cooler air. Toward the end of the period it becomes far less clear of how the pattern may set-up as there have been subtle signs of some type of system with Gulf of Mexico moisture (rare occurrence lately) making a run at the Southeast and Mid Atlantic and possibly putting itself south of New England. What takes place would depend on the speed of the evolution, but I am not certain this takes place at all. Just something to watch for now. Going to lean toward an overall dry pattern with a moderating trend for the WHW forecast area for now.

8 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. I agree, this was a great write-up.

      And I, for one, am glad that we did dodge a bullet. I love stormy, windy weather for the drama, but not for the damage.

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