Monday Forecast

50 Comments

6:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Today is the first day of a new work week for some, and the last day of a long weekend for others. Whatever kind of day it is for you, other than a brief rain shower threat from the South Coast to the Massachusetts South Shore, weatherwise it will turn out to be quite nice, as the shower-causing disturbance pulls away and high pressure approaches. This high will move overhead Tuesday ensuring another nice day. Things change quickly on Wednesday as a vigorous upper level trough of low pressure and resultant surface storm approach from the west, and with the initial low redeveloping just south of New England and moving right up over southeastern New England Wednesday night, this set-up brings a shot of significant rainfall. But it won’t hang around long, and heaviest part will likely be very short-lived, so while I termed the rainfall significant I am stopping short of terming it beneficial, as far as easing our every-growing deficit. The low will be deepening similar to a winter storm as it moves away Thursday, and while that day may start wet at least in parts of the region, dry air will wrap around the departing storm and enter the region on a strong northwest wind, and the October bluster will be in full force. As is typical for one of these systems, it will expand significantly across eastern Canada and the gradient between that low pressure area and a high pressure area moving in from the Midwest will keep a gusty breeze going right through Friday, a day that will feature dry and cool weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy RI and southeastern MA with early morning rain showers possible, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 44-51. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving southwest to northeast mid to late afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with rain showers likely. Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH early, becoming NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-45 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)
High pressure moves in both surface and aloft and brings fair weather and a warming trend to the region for the October 19-20 weekend. Surface high pressure slides offshore October 21-22 with a stronger southwesterly air flow, warmer than average temperatures, but eventually a risk of rain showers as a cold front approaches, which should pass through by October 23 if current timing is correct, leading to dry and cooler weather at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)
Westerly flow will try to continue its domination of the pattern with a quick moving system bringing milder weather ahead of it and a risk of rain showers October 24 to early October 25 followed by breezy and cooler weather again. The October 26-28 period is uncertain. The leaning is toward dry weather with moderating temperatures but we still have to watch for the potential for low pressure to develop south of the region, something not really seen by medium range guidance at this point. However even if it does occur, does not necessarily mean it would be close enough for impact – just something to watch being so far into the future.

50 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Ch. 7 has rain continuing all day into Thursday as well. I hope your forecast verifies instead.

    As it usually does. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK
    Too bad it is not winter. 12z NAM perfect snow track. I think game four of the ALCS with an 8pm start Wed in the Bronx is not going to happen.

      1. The fact that the Euro has it as well, I would expect some
        rain and wind, just a question of how much rain and how strong the winds are.

    2. No indications from NHC that this would be tropical or subtropical, so
      it looks like a good ole fashion Nor’easter.

      Of course, the NAM could be goosing this in customary fashion,however the Euro actually looks quite similar with the rain and wind, but pressure at
      986mb.

      1. I wouldn’t expect it to be remotely tropical. It’s a synoptic scale cold core redevelopment, like a winter system.

  10. Today and tomorrow great weather.
    I would expect a wind alert of some sort being posted for parts of SNE prior to Wednesday.

  11. I have to say that I think Sutton has the best colors we have seen since we moved here 3.5 years ago. I wonder if it is because the leaves have either been wind and rain blown as was the case last year and/or due to winter moths/gypsy moths.

    Our smaller water areas are shallower now. But we are all still mowing lawns. I spoke to an individual re some tree cutting and bed thinning and she said that for the first summer in a very long time they have had to mow customers every week so are backed up on other jobs. Typically, they would mow maybe every 10 days or so. We have not mowed every week in many years. And we have always ended by now.

  12. Any body have any early ideas about this up coming winter?? I am leaning towards warmer and below avg snow!

      1. Dr. Cohen “appears” to be hinting otherwise, but afaiac, his
        track record isn’t stellar. Even so, looking forward to his
        official Winter forecast.

    1. Euro comes in West of the NAM and as a result the heaviest rain is
      in Western MA, up to 4 inches while Boston comes in at a tad over 1 inch.

      Still some ironing out to be done. Either way, plenty of wind. Should
      be a wild Wednesday night into Thursday AM.

  15. What I think is a slowly correcting trend underway run to run with the NAM, which had been over-estimating rainfall amounts for the midweek system. SAK talked about it too. The models are very likely overdoing this one.

      1. It will be windier behind the storm when the dry air returns.

        But it will under-perform in terms of rainfall. Splitsville for a lot of southeastern New England I believe.

  16. CPC 8-14 outlook has well above normal temps.

    Skeeters will be having a field day for the rest of the month. 🙁

    1. I have not seen one in about 5 weeks around here. Can’t speak for other areas. And I have been out a lot in the evening…

  17. Eric’s tweets can be hit or miss, but this is a good one below. It relates very well to something I mentioned with the last storm, that is, battling against climatology. Last time, it was rainfall totals. This time, it’s pressure/storm intensity. I’m not discounting the idea of a ~970mb low near or over SNE, but it would be completely unprecedented this time of year. Like, not even close to precedented. What does that mean? Climatology strongly argues for a slower phasing of this storm, with the low being weaker at least over SNE and waiting until it’s further north to reach it’s max intensity. That would mean, as TK said, “splitsville” for SNE in terms of rainfall. Not no rain, but less rain than most guidance shows.

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher

    Lowest pressure on record in Boston for the month of October is 982.4mb

    Cause to be wary of any guidance that’s showing crazy deep pressure (950s, 960s). Even getting into the 970s would be unprecedented for the time of year

  18. Thank you, TK!

    Shameful racist abuse spewed at England’s black players during a Euro qualifier in Bulgaria. See link below. Unfortunately, this kind of thing happens very frequently in many European countries. For all the blemishes and deep-seated flaws we have in our country, the fans at U.S. sporting events are a million times better behaved than their European counterparts. Americans attend games en masse compared to Europeans – all 4 major sports; and you can include a 5th sport, soccer, which has reasonable attendance. Truly incredible how many Americans turn up at professional and college games. They’re there to cheer on their team for sure, and also eat and maybe drink a few. But, violence is very rare. Racist chants, very rare. The atmosphere is pleasant, often family-friendly. Often not so in Europe. I know, I’ve been to games there. It can be a very uncomfortable experience.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/49955900

    1. This clip is making the rounds in the industry circles. I’ve become a John Oliver fan in recent years. The clip is quite funny, obviously very tongue in cheek as John usually is. He gets a lot right though in terms of how the industry works and the importance of international cooperation in meteorology. Cooperation between government and private industries is also important.

      There are a lot of things NWS could do better as well. At the top of my list, while Oliver highlights the increased accessibility of the NWS web site in the 2000s, it remains out of date for its era and is also prone to failures especially during high impact events. That needs to improve. But I do believe the NWS provides a great service, and simply looking at it from a taxpayer perspective, there are few government services which provide as much value. There’s a lot that goes on behind the scenes as well (i.e., coordination with emergency management) that is very important also. I don’t think Barry Myers is a good choice to lead the agency. I know we’d come through it, but there are so many better options out there.

      1. Thank you for your perspective, WxW. I just watched the clip. And yes there is truth. However, I can’t pretend to word anything better than you have. Well done

  20. The Taunton Gazette is reporting tonight that a Taunton resident, a man in his 50s, died Friday as a result of EEE.

  21. The oz GFS looks to bring snow to norther new hampshire and had a cold but dry look to it at the end of its run.

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