DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Today is the first day of a new work week for some, and the last day of a long weekend for others. Whatever kind of day it is for you, other than a brief rain shower threat from the South Coast to the Massachusetts South Shore, weatherwise it will turn out to be quite nice, as the shower-causing disturbance pulls away and high pressure approaches. This high will move overhead Tuesday ensuring another nice day. Things change quickly on Wednesday as a vigorous upper level trough of low pressure and resultant surface storm approach from the west, and with the initial low redeveloping just south of New England and moving right up over southeastern New England Wednesday night, this set-up brings a shot of significant rainfall. But it won’t hang around long, and heaviest part will likely be very short-lived, so while I termed the rainfall significant I am stopping short of terming it beneficial, as far as easing our every-growing deficit. The low will be deepening similar to a winter storm as it moves away Thursday, and while that day may start wet at least in parts of the region, dry air will wrap around the departing storm and enter the region on a strong northwest wind, and the October bluster will be in full force. As is typical for one of these systems, it will expand significantly across eastern Canada and the gradient between that low pressure area and a high pressure area moving in from the Midwest will keep a gusty breeze going right through Friday, a day that will feature dry and cool weather.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy RI and southeastern MA with early morning rain showers possible, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 44-51. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving southwest to northeast mid to late afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with rain showers likely. Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH early, becoming NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-45 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)
High pressure moves in both surface and aloft and brings fair weather and a warming trend to the region for the October 19-20 weekend. Surface high pressure slides offshore October 21-22 with a stronger southwesterly air flow, warmer than average temperatures, but eventually a risk of rain showers as a cold front approaches, which should pass through by October 23 if current timing is correct, leading to dry and cooler weather at that time.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)
Westerly flow will try to continue its domination of the pattern with a quick moving system bringing milder weather ahead of it and a risk of rain showers October 24 to early October 25 followed by breezy and cooler weather again. The October 26-28 period is uncertain. The leaning is toward dry weather with moderating temperatures but we still have to watch for the potential for low pressure to develop south of the region, something not really seen by medium range guidance at this point. However even if it does occur, does not necessarily mean it would be close enough for impact – just something to watch being so far into the future.