Tuesday Forecast

67 Comments

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)
High pressure brings fair weather today, even into the first part of Wednesday, and then a vigorous low pressure trough, this time in the jet stream rather than cut off from it, will travel eastward and max out close to New England Wednesday night and early Thursday, with an initial surface low redeveloping pretty much right over southern New England. This will bring wet weather and wind, with the heaviest rainfall and possible thunder being a quick-hitting event for the region, followed by lingering rain showers as the low does a cyclonic loop pretty much right over the region. I feel that models are overdoing both the rainfall amounts and the intensity of the low, however it will be a decent autumn storm system nonetheless. By Friday, we’re back in dry weather but with a gusty breeze and cool air, and after a cold start Saturday, high pressure settling to the south of the region will provide a very nice mid October day to start the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Numerous rain showers early, then scattered to eventually isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-50 MPH, strongest in exposed areas and in higher elevations.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)
High pressure brings fair, mild weather October 20. It will stay mild into the start of next week but a cold front will approach then pass through sometime in the October 22-23 period with rain showers then a switch to cooler weather. Another disturbance may bring a risk of rain showers by the end of the period as a westerly flow dominates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)
Leaning more toward westerly flow domination and less risk of any impact from low pressure to the south from that October 26-28 period I’ve been watching. A storm may still form to the south but there are weaker indications of it being able to come northward if it does. The pattern would support up and down temperatures and limited rain shower risks, but a strong enough westerly flow may allow for a shot of very cool air before the end of the period.

67 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Traffic was brutal this morning as it took me nearly 1/2 hour to travel a mere
    3.4 miles. That’s what I get for leaving 10 minutes later than usual.

    How much rain and how much wind is the question. Time will tell.

    Looks like at least an inch of rain with more possible. wind? We shall see.
    Nam looks pretty windy.

      1. 60ish. Will post a map when the 12Z run is complete.
        The 12Z NAM is NOT backing down. We shall see how
        over cooked it is.

        2. Well I’m having my dumpster picked up as a precaution in regards to the potential winds . It’s full to the top but I was hoping to squeeze a few more things in

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Starting to see an unfortunate trend here – at least unfortunate this early – of weekly storms that have lows just south of New England. Last week, we had one. This week we’ll have another. I do realize that one was trapped if you will and kept spinning for days, while the other will speed on by. Then, it looks like we may have another next week around the same time. If you like snow, it’s really too bad that we’re seeing this in October as opposed to December or January. By then, of course, all the lows will track west of us.

    1. I’d love to see these kind of set ups with Arctic air to the North of us.
      Oh, I guess I can dream. You’re correct, when we do have the cold, any
      storms will pass West of us. Always “seems” to be the way.

      But, it ain’t over till it’s over. One never knows with Winters in New England.

  12. I would think by later this afternoon were going to see some sort of wind alert issued for a good chunk of SNE.

  14. A couple notes…

    Two very different systems don’t really make a trend. Also getting affected by 3 low pressure areas over 3 weeks is actually less active than normal.

    For this next system, it will be potent but very short-lived. Model forecasts have been overdone as usual. The total rainfall for this upcoming system should range generally from 1/2 inch to an inch and a half. Any two engine mounts should be confined to central or western Massachusetts and northern New England. There will also be another core of heavy precipitation offshore.

      1. I just added to that comment because I had a problem with my phone…

        There are zero changes to the early thoughts. I probably won’t change any thinking until 5 weeks from now if necessary.

        1. Thanks. Appreciated.
          So what are you thinking? something like 25 inches
          or so? OR even less? Just curious.
          Thanks again.

          1. Knowing TK’s thinking, I bet that 25 inches will be a bonus due to an end-of-season freak snow event like last time. Oh well. Maybe next winter 2020-21.

  15. To add to my comment yesterday about grass growing season….. I just stopped at a local farmstand. The person checking out prior to be asked how long they expected the corn to be available. The cashier said they are hoping another week and that this is the last round. Last year she said the fall was very wet and windy which I have in my allergy notes. This also kind of bears out TK’s comments re being less active than normal.

    1. Ok, that’s good. To me it means that there is still a small chance that your early thinking could change.

    1. Looking forward to it. Will it under or over achieve??
      I’ll take the under. Wonder what the Vegas odds are?

      2. oh heck – for no other reason than to have someone on the opposite side, I’ll take over. Does that mean Im on Tom’s team?

      3. What’s the baseline ….. about 1 inch of rain and wind gusts to 50 mph ?

        If that’s it, I’ll go for about target for precip and slightly over-achieving near the coastline on wind gusts.

        2. Harvey said 53 mph gusts for boston and norwood and 63 mph on the Cape. That was Harvey. Will be watching at 11. Why the magic 53?? why not 50 or 55? he he

          1. There was never even remotely the chance of snow with this. It’s only October 15 and we’d need exceptionally anomalous conditions for a snow threat this early. Last time that happened was 1979 this far east this early.

  20. Oh what a splendid autumn day, exactly in the middle of the meteorological version of the season. Just a great day. We can expect more of this on the weekend after our midweek interruption. 🙂

    2. Yes, indeed
      I was out in shirt sleeves and when I came in, my wife said it was only 59??
      Sure didn’t feel like it to me.

  22. The wind better be strong because I just called to have my dumpster picked up & that’s going to probably cost six bills I could have held for 3 more weeks

      2. Lol funny . I have it stacked to the top I was worried about blow off . Like I said I could have squeezed a tad more in & have it for 3 more weeks but I’m hearing string winds so off it goes

  23. Uoton, NY nws discussion

    Area Forecast Discussion
    Issued by NWS Upton, NY

    Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
    Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
    — Highlight Changed Discussion —

    000
    FXUS61 KOKX 152012
    AFDOKX

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New York NY
    412 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

    .SYNOPSIS…
    High pressure will continue to retreat farther offshore tonight,
    while a strong frontal system approaches on Wednesday. As the
    front approaches late in the day, a rapidly deepening coastal
    low will form just off the Mid Atlantic coast, tracking near or
    just southeast of Long Island Wednesday night. Low pressure
    continues to move along the New England coast Thursday and
    into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night. Meanwhile, high
    pressure builds to the west. The high moves over the region
    Friday, remaining through the weekend. Another frontal system
    affects the region Sunday night through Tuesday.

    &&

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/…
    An amplifying upper trough will work across the Great Lakes
    tonight, sending a cold front across the Ohio Valley, while
    high pressure continues to retreat offshore across the western
    Atlantic.

    A weak return flow this evening will gradually strengthen
    toward daybreak. There is the possibility of some patchy frost
    across the interior with light winds and clear skies for much of
    the night. Overnight lows will generally be near normal with
    the possible exception of the NYC metro, which may be few
    degrees above normal. Readings will range from the upper 30s
    well north and west, to the lower and mid 50s NYC metro.

    &&

    .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
    Guidance is in good overall agreement with major cyclogenesis
    off the Mid Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon into the
    night. This is in response to an amplifying upper trough
    emerging from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states, phasing
    with a southern branch frontal wave and subtropical moisture.
    Where there is some uncertainty, is with the timing and how
    explosive the initial development is with the low. The 12Z NAM
    continues to be slower and deeper (about 10 mb by 06Z Thu) with
    the resultant low. However, the trend is certainly more in line
    with the other operational models, and not as deep as previous
    runs. This is key for couple of reasons, one for the timing of
    the heavy rain, and the other to determine whether the strong
    easterly flow will coincide with the time of high tide. The
    latter of which raises the issue for potential coastal flooding.
    See Coastal Flood section below for additional details.

    As for the rainfall, the system is loaded with strong upper
    dynamics (negatively tilted upper trough and coupling upper jet
    exit and entrance regions) and strong thermal forcing, with the
    potential for several inches of rainfall. The heaviest rain
    looks to be north and west of the low track, which will
    encompass most of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts at this
    time look average 2 to 3 inches, with the potential for higher
    amounts in banded rain. The one saving grace is that antecedent
    conditions have been dry and main stem rivers will likely be
    able to handle these amounts. Gridded FFG values for NE NJ are 2
    to 2 1/2 inches for 6 hours. Much of this rain occurs in a 6 to
    9 hour window from late afternoon/early evening to just after
    midnight. Thus, a flash flood watch is in effect for NE NJ.
    Elsewhere, there is a lower probability of flash flooding for
    urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas.

    Ahead of the low, a period of E/SE winds 15 to 20 mph with
    gusts up to 30 mph are likely along the coast Wednesday
    afternoon/evening. Then in the wake of low pressure, W/NW winds
    of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph are expected late Wednesday
    night.

    Both highs and lows Wednesday and Wednesday night will be several
    degrees above normal.

    &&

    .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
    High amplitude, and progressive, flow will continue through the
    extended period. One trough with an embedded closed low will be
    exiting the east coast Thursday and Thursday night as a ridge builds
    across the central United States and well into central Canada. This
    ridge moves through the eastern states, and off the coast, Friday
    through Saturday night. Meanwhile a series of shortwaves move into
    the Pacific northwest, with a stronger wave digging a trough
    Saturday night and Sunday. This deep trough will then affect the
    region from Sunday night into Tuesday.

    For Thursday, strong and gusty winds will prevail in the cold
    advection and deep cyclonic flow. Held off on a wind advisory at
    this time as will be the fourth period, with low confidence as
    sustained winds and gusts will be near advisory levels. Also,
    highest winds mostly likely will be across the far eastern zones,
    southeastern Connecticut, into the twin forks of Long Island. This
    is were best mixing, and strongest low level winds will be. The GFS
    had higher winds of 50 to 60 kt 900 to 850 mb, and the ECMWF was in
    the 45 to 50 kt range.

    With high pressure over the area Friday night, winds will decouple
    with nearly clear conditions. This will be ideal radiational cooling
    and inland areas, especially the lower Hudson Valley, will see low
    temperatures in the mid and upper 30s with areas of frost.

    A warm up begins Saturday and continues into early next week. By
    Sunday temperatures will be several degrees anomalously above
    normal. For Sunday through Tuesday went above guidance temperatures.

    There is some uncertainty with the timing of the next system Sunday
    night into Tuesday, with the ECMWF developing a wave along the
    triple point, and the GFS more delayed with only warm advection
    forcing with a warm front developing. Started to bring in
    precipitation Sunday night, more in line with the ECMWF.

    &&

    .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
    High pressure builds offshore tonight into Wednesday.
    Meanwhile, a low pressure system approaches the area from the
    west on Wednesday and moves across the area Wednesday evening
    and Wednesday night.

    VFR through mid morning on Wednesday. CLouds will gradually
    lower and thicken through the day Wednesday, with MVFR/IFR
    conditions around or after 18Z. Rain will move into the area
    after 18z, with some of the rain being heavy at times. Timing of
    MVFR/IFR conditions may be off by an hour or two.

    N-NE between 5-10 kts are beginning to turn towards the SW, and
    should remain SW through the evening. Winds tonight then become
    light, 5 kts or less, and become more southeasterly. Winds increase
    through the day Wednesday with speeds reaching 10-15kt with some
    gusts in to the 20kt range.

    …NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support…

  24. Interesting times ahead in the weather. A potentially historic (in some regards) storm on tomorrow-Thursday. A summer revamp for the weekend and early next week. Then the potential for more theatrics later in the month as the AO/NAO drop. It feels like we’re always dealing with excitement in the weather this time of year though. Really ever since the October snows of 2011 it feels like there’s always a big storm threat or two around this time, and I’m sure it’s been that way for longer. Just a naturally amped up period for the atmosphere.

    1. How I know it’s gone on longer than that, and not just because of the 1991 event, is that when I was a kid it seemed almost a yearly occurrence that my brother would be a mixture of excited because of an October wind/rain storm but also disappointed that the foliage was going to get stripped from the trees early. 😉

      I don’t mind the summer revamp because I’m going to Six Flags Saturday and I have a ton of outdoor plans on Sunday. 🙂

  25. Keeping my #’s lower than NWS. Don’t agree with them, at least in terms of how widespread they want the 2-3″ rains will be. Storm will under-perform in terms of lowest pressure, rainfall, and perhaps even wind, though that will still be the longest-lasting aspect since it will last through Thursday and take its time diminishing through Friday. Some of our more reliable short range models are showing the rainfall split (heaviest to the west and one strip of heavier offshore) so I’m still ok with 0.50 to 1.50 as the general rule with amounts above 1.50 being the exception.

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