Saturday Forecast

36 Comments

9:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)
High pressure centered north of New England provides a nice day today. Low pressure will track northeastward, set to pass northwest of New England late Sunday, but its an occluding low and a new low center will form near or over southern New England Sunday night then doddle just offshore Monday as high pressure rebuilds to the north. This will provide an easterly air flow here, preventing much on the way of clearing. By Wednesday, the same general set-up but in weaker form will be in place, but we should see some improvement during the Tuesday-Wednesday time period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Light rain likely morning. Spotty very light rain first half of afternoon. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east second half of afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Drizzle and areas of fog. Chance of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Area of drizzle and fog. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Patchy fog early. Highs 58-65. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4)
Close call between a gusty southerly breeze, fair weather and mild air and a cloudier, wetter scenario for October 31 depending on the track of low pressure west of New England and associated boundaries. Front passes through during November 1 with rain showers likely. Generally dry but breezy and much cooler November 2-3 weekend. Next wet weather threat comes at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
Watching for a weather system and precipitation threat in the late November 6 to early November 8 time frame.

36 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Wish tomorrow’s Pats game was a 1pm game, not 4pm.

    I’ve always thought poor weather helps the underdog.

    1. I’m glad it’s 4. 😉 We have a big halloween parade in Woburn that steps off at 1. It will finish up where I am about 3:30PM. Pats right after that. Bruins to follow. 🙂

      2. Bruins …. vs the Blues today. I hope they win 10 – 0. Kudos to the Bruins for beginning the season strong. They could have had a psychological excuse to start so-so.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So that precipitation threat 11/6-11/8 “could” possibly include snow for at least
    parts of the area?

    1. Sure. SAK and I were discussing the pattern over Fudruckers before yesterday’s UMass Lowell hockey game vs. BU (which we went to). But don’t get too excited for “a big one” right now.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    I found this amusing – Belichick doesn’t have much faith in weather forecasts: https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2019/10/25/bill-belichick-weatherman-patriots-browns

    I’m going to enjoy this lovely fall day by going a bike ride with several friends. My gut is not cooperating today (GERD/IBS; the usual persistence annoyance I’ve had for many years), but usually on bad days it finds an equilibrium of sorts by mid afternoon when I run or ride my bike. I’m convinced that almost all gut issues have to do with bacterial and acidic imbalances that are very difficult to rectify. I’ve tried everything, to no avail.

    Prediction: Astros win this series in 6. Bregman’s going to break out of his slump. Cole and Verlander will do the rest.

      1. True. I have a feeling, however, that Bill is a nice person to be friends with. He’s probably a great conversationalist, believe it or not. Though I wasn’t happy with the way he left his wife, I believe he’s a good father, friend, advice-giver. And, I think he and Linda are a good match.

      1. Wouldn’t that be something. He should join WHW. We’d get a lot of “it is what it is” posts. You know, after a 30 inch blizzard Bill would say “it is what it is.”

  7. Thanks TK.

    My grass is not even visible it is so submerged in leaves. That is my #1 task for today.

    And #2………. gassing up the snowblower 🙂

    1. Of course we’ll just let it all count even with the bad temps. 😉 The last legit record on that list was 2012.

      1. TK I understand why people are upset with the temperature recording but how are you going to put it out there without the climate change deniers saying oh see look, no climate change here because of them fixing the equipment. I am always worried that the dumb people looking at it as a way to try and legitimize their BS.

        2. This has nothing to do with climate change. It has to do with accuracy of measurement. The issue would be the same if the sensors were all reading too low. If that were the case, how would you put it out there without the non-deniers thinking it was worse than it is? Fair question and I’m interested in your take on it. I agree with Vicki’s reply here.

    1. Somewhere between possibly and probably, because the initial thrust of precipitation should be mostly northwest of your location.

  12. If things don’t change too drastically in the medium range, that parts of the central US are going to get some snow.

    Green Bay, Kansas City ….. etc ….

  13. Two reasons that snow event won’t happen.
    1. GFS and we know how bad that model is.
    2. Farmers’ Almanac predicting in that time period intensifying storm moves east with a heavy dose of rain or snow followed by much colder weather. Always go the opposite of what the Almanac says.

    1. Basically like how that event is not there anymore on the 00z run. This is why I don’t pay attention to surface details on these runs beyond 3 days. They hold little or no practical use. 🙂

      The almanac issue is a different animal: Since predicting day to day weather is difficult to nearly impossible from day 4 to about day 15, and they are trying to do it about a year and a half in advance, you have an equal chance of being somewhere between correct (due to chance) to completely wrong whether you go with the almanac’s forecast or opposite what it says. 😉

        1. Whether they appear on the GFS or not, sooner or later something will happen. Bad medium range models just paint multiple erroneous pictures of a snapshot in time, moreso than a representation of what “may” happen. Maybe close to 50/50, but I still find them fairly useless for much more than entertainment, and more especially around the times of transitional patterns.

          But the fact that’s still October, even peeking as far ahead as mid November on a GFS run, it’s still a tad early, climatologically, for “winter” systems. Anomalies, sure, they can happen, and we may even snag one of those pre-Thanksgiving. We’ll see. 🙂

          BTW I have to email you later, running around with Mom this morning then we have a huge parade (rain or shine) so it’ll probably be a bit later today. 🙂

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