Tuesday Forecast

123 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
Get ready for a temperature crash! But before that, we have some fog, some rain, and a bit of snow to get through. No, not big snow – not even close. But there is one tweak to the forecast today and that has to do with timing and moisture. As the cold front passes today, many areas will mix with and change to snow, and accumulation will be very minor – under 1 inch on grassy surfaces and car tops, and maybe a slushy trace on cemented or paved areas that are cold enough. The change has to do with a surge of moisture coming up behind the front just enough to keep the snow going a little longer as it gets dark over parts of southeastern MA and Cape Cod for a better chance of a coating of snow there, and a little less time for surfaces to dry off tonight as the temperature really falls. So those same areas may see a little more coverage of frozen puddles and black ice heading into Wednesday morning. Anywhere that does experience that will see it dry/sublimate due to very dry air and windy conditions through Wednesday, a day that will feel much more likely January than the middle of November. But things change quickly around here, and even though Thursday will be a very chilly day too, it will begin to moderate a bit with much less wind, and with high pressure slipping off to the east as well, an increase in moisture should lead to a few more clouds than previously indicated. Another minor tweak for this forecast is the removal of the rain shower risk for Friday, leaving just some clouds in as a cold front approaches and passes. That day itself will be milder, but a quick shot of cold air will follow this for Saturday as high pressure moves across the Upper Great Lakes into southeastern Canada.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Rain overspreading the region west to east morning, ending as mix/snow west to east mid afternoon to early evening with minor accumulation (under 1 inch) in some locations, favoring unpaved surfaces. Highs 41-46 I-495 belt northwest of Boston, 47-52 Boston-Providence corridor, 53-58 to the southeast morning and midday, with a sharp drop west to east during the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially north and west of Boston, from west to east during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice on many surfaces that have not dried off or been treated. Lows 15-20 except 20-25 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10, approaching 0 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 except 33-38 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill frequently below 20.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 except 23-28 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
High pressure protects the region with dry weather and a slight temperature moderation to finish off the weekend November 17. The November 18-21 period is a little more tricky as we will have high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south, and there will be a bit of a battle between the two. The weather here can range from fair, to cloudy, to wet. It will be a more moderate temperature pattern so we would not likely have any frozen precipitation to worry about, just rain, but at this point I’m giving the edge to the high pressure area to the north keeping most of the wet weather south. It may not be as successful holding the clouds off, which may also be added to by an air flow off the Atlantic. But it’s early to go into any more detail than that. Just keep in mind the potential scenario which will be fine-tuned.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-25)
A return to a zonal (west to east) flow pattern with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple brief precipitation threats, mainly passing rain showers, depending on the timing of disturbances.

123 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. Actually, still not for all. There will be a lot of folks that get ZIPPO for coatings. In fact, SE MA has a better chance than Metro West.

  5. Thank you TK

    23 degrees at a friends not far from Nashville and a coating of snow.

    35 for a low in south Sutton

    1. Very interesting…I had 43 in Wilkinsonville (about 700 feet higher than you), but as soon as I got down the hill to Market 32, it was 37. I find the Blackstone Valley has some really interesting temperature changes over very short distances. I can remember a few times where it was snowing at my house and raining at the bottom of the hill.

      1. We find the same. We can count on a 2-3 degree drop between south Sutton and the center. Only a few miles. And often it is the difference between ice on trees and roads there and just wet here. Although my neighborhood is elevated.

        If there is wind, We can also count on wind damage on Putnam Hill right by Blackstone Golf Course.

      2. Tim, I got curious about elevation. My house is 367. Although it’s a bit deceiving since the neighborhood is surrounded by a hill. Sutton center is 686. Wilkinson shows at 367 also which is odd. I’m thinking that is the low spot since you said you are in a hill so incorrect for your home . Putnam Hill Rd is 689. Which explains the consistent temp difference and wind. The wind does funnel down through our neighborhood though.

        I used this link. http://elevation.maplogs.com/poi/sutton_ma_usa.62212.html

  6. So Tk should I expect not going home today with now might be costing & ice for work in the city for salting purposes . You know the protocol here . Thanks

  8. I read Dr. Cohen’s blog (well much of it, not all) this morning.
    It is always a really tough read, but he said something about the MJO going
    through phase 8 into 1 in a couple of weeks.

    Why do I always seem to get mixed signals from him.

    It’s like a Met saying: “Well, it’s going to rain, I think, but then again it may snow”

    Anyhow, it will do whatever it wants. I just hate to see gloom and doom
    about the upcoming Winter before it even gets here.

    As big a not job as DT is, for once in his life, I hope he is correct, but I fear he misses
    by several hundred miles and his Miller A storms end up running up the back side
    of the SE ridge and running well West of here. 🙂

  10. Question, if anyone wants to weigh in!

    My dahlia tubers are still in the ground… I usually let them die off after the first frost and dry up a bit before digging them up. Should have dug them this weekend, but wasn’t able to get out there…

    With the next few days of cold, do you think the ground will freeze up beyond the first inch or two, and make it to the tubers? I may be out there in the dark this evening doing some digging…

    Tom

      1. It’s not what I can handle it’s the Hospital’s call we do things by the book here no room for error

          1. Unfortunately the weather is not by the book so I don’t think anyone can definitively say if you will need to stay or not. I suspect the hospital has to err on the side of caution so they would keep workers there to address any ice if needed.

          2. Oh I understand that completely and it is just the reason why that paltry 0.1 inch might require your services.

            Best of luck.

            I was joking when I said can you handle it?

              1. Yep you’ll get to go home.

                One round of treatment on anything that looks like it’s going to freeze up and then sublimation/evaporation should take over.

                The dew point will be dropping to near or sub-zero.

                Even ice goes poof in conditions like that.

    1. Here’s another correlation map. Pretty strong correlation in our area.

      Brian Brettschneider
      @Climatologist49
      Nov 10

      Pearson’s correlation coefficient of Oct-Nov temps and Dec-Feb temps using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (detrended). Orange colors (>+0.2) are positive relationships; i.e., warm Oct-Nov is somewhat correlated to warm Dec-Feb and cold Oct-Nov is somewhat correlated to cold Dec-Feb.

      https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1193696829860302848?s=20

  25. I am in W Locks right now, precip has cut off completely. Just windy and cold and roads are mostly dry. Radar still shows it precipitating but the cold, dry air from the NW is eating up the light precip aloft on the back side of the front.

    No accumulation here.

    1. Done in JP as well. A very light dusting on Roofs and car tops and a bit
      barely discernable on the grassy surfaces,

      Down to 31 here already.

  33. We got a thin coating, both on decks and grass. Some of it is actually blowing off the roof. Visibility improving now.

  34. Kind of a Moo point that it was rain as it ended up being 0.11 inch.

    Oh yeah, I said Moo point on purpose as in “Friends”. You know a Moo point.
    It’s like a cow’s opinion, it doesn’t mean anything. A moo point.

          1. Awesome. We’re in the middle of watching all
            episodes. we’re on season 3, I think. I hadn’t
            seen that, but my wife often watches clips at night and she told me about it. 🙂

            1. No matter how many times I watch, I find myself laughing out loud. It feels good..especially in this day and age.

              Enjoy

  36. 18Z 3Km NAM has a low tonight for Boston of 17. Pretty nippy for November.
    With high tomorrow of 28 SMASHING the all-time record “Low High” for the date,
    which was 36 in 1874. Pretty cool or cold if you wish.

    1. Check that. NOT nose diving at all. Maintaining at 30 Degrees, so I guess
      it will be a slow and steady fall during the night.

  38. As the snow moves offshore and away tonight, other than a risk of a passing Cape Cod snow shower tomorrow and perhaps (remote risk of) a few flurries sometime Friday night / very early Saturday, we are now done with early-season snow threats until at least Thanksgiving the way I see things unfolding.

    1. I agree. We’ve actually skated through this wintry pattern with less snow than I expected. Always tough to line things up just right this time of year though.

    2. Long range EPS and some of the indices though (MJO, PNA, EPO) are looking more favorable as we get into the last week in November.

      We’ll see…

      1. For that matter MJO pretty much in a favorable state the whole second half of the month. GFS and Euro have it moving into Phase 8 later this week, through Phase 1 next week and into Phase 2 thereafter.

  40. Help. Grandson has a question I have no idea of answer for. What kind of mouse takes thousands of little pictures. Thank you

        1. I have no idea either but it makes me feel better than you don’t. He said Mickey Mouse. Maybe he should go with that.

          Thank you VERY much

    1. Pete.

      Deep dish of cold air arrives Friday. Gusts top 40 mph in the afternoon, & even with tons of sun we only muster low 40s. Longer range, a storm is brewing on Tuesday…let the hand-wringing about rain/snow begin.

  44. Seems as if the final surge of energy/moisture to enhance snow in southeastern areas has indeed occurred. So the better risk of a coating to the southeast of Boston is panning out. A little bit to go by the Cape then it’s gone. From here on in it’s sublimation/evaporation time.

  45. Boston is going to break a low maximum temperature record tomorrow that has stood since 1874. That is impressive.

  46. Seems like the main precip moved East before the cold air could change it over here in Sturbridge. There was some very light snow, not even enough to coat the ground. No doubt the cold air has arrived though, we are now down to 25.

  52. Boston never got into the warm air today as expected. Only 43 degrees for the high. And I don’t believe Norwood did either.

    1. The temperature wasn’t forecast to warm up. It was forecast to fall, and that’s exactly what it did. The day was to start out with a contrast in temp from cool NW to mild SE, which it also did.

  54. Great call yesterday TK, on that opportunity for SE Mass to get a period of light snow. That’s exactly what happened down around these parts.

  55. Great call yesterday TK, on that opportunity for SE Mass to get a period of light snow. That’s exactly what happened down around these parts.

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