Thursday Forecast

89 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
The high pressure area that brought a batch of mid winter feeling air here is on its way out and as it starts to warm both at the surface and aloft we’ll see more cloudiness today. The should be a largely precipitation-free process except the risk of some rain showers in east coastal MA and especially Cape Cod tonight. This leads to a milder Friday as a westerly air flow takes over, but a cold front coming through, also generally absent of precipitation, on Friday evening will introduce another blast of colder air for Saturday, although this one will not be to the magnitude of the one just leaving us. Saturday’s chilly blast will come along with a gusty breeze as high pressure builds across southeastern Canada. This high will sit up there on Sunday as low pressure organizes off the Mid Atlantic Coast, a low we’ll have to keep an eye on just beyond this forecast period. However it should already be spreading some high level clouds across the sky…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early sun, then mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW to S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible eastern MA especially Cape Cod. Lows 32-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Additional low pressure offshore through November 20 may result in more unsettled weather, mainly rain at times though a mix possible interior higher elevations. A more westerly flow takes over November 21-23 with a trough passage due around November 22 that may produce some rain and/or snow showers. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
May have to watch for one more system offshore with a precipitation threat around November 25 but not a high confidence forecast. Should be back to westerly flow mid to late period with brief rain/snow shower threats otherwise mostly dry.

89 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Thanks, TK…

    14.5 the low here this morning.
    Pies and turkey in the oven this time two weeks from now!

  5. Thank you TK! Convinced my younger son to wear pants as opposed to shorts yesterday and today. This morning he claims that he is actually colder in pants. Gotta love these kids!

    1. You have me laughing out loud. My 6 year old grand went out having a battle with his mom about wearing a jacket and then of course didn’t want to zip it. I can’t say much because I detest jackets so tend not to set a great example. And his father may still be wearing shorts.

  7. Euro has quite a system for the 21st, of course it would be a RAINORAMA!!!
    Where are these systems when we are enveloped in Arctic Air????????????????

  8. We hit 11 again last night. Seems to be the magical number here. Was 14 when kids got on the bus. And our irrigation system has not been blown out yet. Arghhhhh.

  11. Thank you TK!
    Dipped down to 14.1 last night. During the middle of winter 14 doesn’t seem so bad, but seeing it’s still November and the fall has been average to above average in the temp department so far, this is a bit of a shock to the system.

  12. Well since it is a quiet day, I’ll add my news. I will be retiring as of the first of the year.

    I am excited….a bit unsure since I have worked from the time I was about 14….but I know once I get into the swing of things, it will be an exciting new chapter.

    3. Hi Vicki and Congrats. I retired myself at the end of this past January and like you I started shoveling snow and selling newspapers for cash at age 14. Retirement is a little different.

  13. Thanks TK.

    10 at my house this AM after a low of 13 yesterday. It feels like snow outside with the cloudy skies!

    Looks like two coastal storm threats next week, one around Monday/Tuesday and a second centered around Thursday. The first one is of tropical origin and the strong high to our north retreats as the system moves towards the benchmark. Doesn’t look right now like there will be enough cold air in place for us.

    The second system is a 975mb bomb on the Euro. Overamplified I’m sure and a coastal hugger. It wraps colder air in as it passes us. A more off shore track would make things interesting…if that storm materializes at all.

    The cold air to our north and snow cover and pretty impressive for this time of year. I cold see more cold air being involved that the models indicate. If I recall from past years, the models tend to underestimate the cold in these early season systems in the long range.

    MJO this AM still progged to be in favorable Phase 8 and 1 for at least the next two weeks….

  14. Sue – I can relate to your post above…..I just finally convinced my son to switch to long pants last week after that first cold shot!

    2. LOL Mark, it is a constant battle! He is the one that refuses to wear long sleeves under his football jersey no matter what the temperature may be.

    1. Great info Mark! Thanks

      Will out of our model sites pick up on this and provide output for us?
      OR will we have to find the GRAF site itself. I surely hope that it is
      available publicly and not just private/proprietary.

    2. The system is coming out of the tropics and almost backing in from the warm Atlantic. High is retreating and the back side cold doesn’t get here in time.

      The second and third threats hold out more hope for some cold air getting involved.

  23. Congrats Vicki!!! This will free up more valuable time to spend with your grands, and with family, not to mention not having to adhere to a schedule or deadlines. 🙂

    1. Congratulations Vicki! I’m sure that you will have a wonderful retirement because you have so many interests and passions.

      1. Thank you very much. I think I’ll tackle ancestry. I did a lot in 2007 but it takes so much time I thought it would be a great retirement project.

  25. Long day (good day) with the students…

    Congratulations, Vicki, and to you, Longshot!

    Thanks, TK…

    It’s almost bedtime!!!! 🙂

  27. And just received this text from my younger son: “I’m so hot in pants so I want to wear shorts to the end of year celebration for football”. Yup, same kid who claims that he is actually colder in pants. And 10 more gray hairs just arrived.

  29. Thoughts as of mid afternoon on upcoming weather, and there are no drastic changes here…

    Today we did indeed see more cloudiness. Originally this is the cloudiness I thought would be around tomorrow, but the evolution and progression of things was just faster by 12 to 24 hours from what I was thinking a few days ago, so the relative warming and associated cloudiness is now, not tomorrow, but tomorrow will be rather mild especially in comparison to what we just went through! So enjoy that, despite the fact it will come with a gusty breeze at times. We’re back into the chill Saturday as discussed above, and I still feel that high pressure will be pretty strong to keep us dry for Sunday with just a lot of high cloudiness appearing in the sky.

    Upcoming ocean / coastal storm threats I believe work out like this…
    #1: Monday, close enough for rain to overspread most of the region, maybe some mix interior higher elevations if there is enough cold air, but I’m not seeing that as a big issue.
    #2: Wednesday, but right now this looks like it may end up further southeast than #1, and just bring perhaps some rain to the South Coast / Cape Cod while the rest of us are mostly cloudy and breezy.

    #3: Around Monday November 25…and if one of these systems is going to have snow involved with it somewhere in SNE it would be this one. But don’t go drawing a conclusion that TK is calling for a snowstorm the start of Thanksgiving Week. I’m not. I’m just looking at how the atmospheric set-up could potentially allow flakes somewhere with that system, ASSUMING that it forms, and if it forms assuming it actually impacts this area. The jury has a long time to decide that one.

    If all goes well, my 2019-2020 winter outlook will be posted no later than Sunday November 24.

    1. Excellent, I am glad you changed your tune today and are now calling for a WHITE THANKSGIVING. I just sent this post to the Woburn Patch….they replied they are working up a front page story for the next issue!

  31. Coastal,

    In response to your post above, I drop my skis off at a ski shop near me to be tuned up. Actually just dropped them off yesterday. They have a deal going right now – $19.99 for a tune up (belt grind, wax, and edge sharpening). Can’t beat it for that price and I don’t really have the proper equipment at home to do it anyway.

    1. Thanks Mark,
      I was asking because I pay to have our 5 pairs of skis tuned up each year and was thinking about doing it myself and saving some $$$$. Obviously I would have to learn the entire process and obtain the tools needed. But might be able to save in the long run.

  32. went by a good sized pond in W. Roxbury
    within Boston, and it was completely frozen, end to end, side to side. not sure I have ever seen that in mid November.

    1. of course, I did not check ice thickness, but I’d bet a bunch it would support me as it appeared thick enough.

        1. I’m not so sure about that. Some of the ponds have a little ice on sections of them, but the larger bodies of water are certainly not frozen over. You need to cool the water surface to 39F when it will sink to the bottom, and repeat the process until the entire water is 39F and even at maximum density, at which time, if it remains cold enough, the ice will start to form on the surface.

          This has only happened in some very shallow waters at this point, and it’s temporary.

          1. I find Eric to be a remarkably intelligent person. This would be a remarkably irresponsible thing to say IMO. I do believe, and it is no secret, if anyone posts a comment attributed to another person, it needs to be cited with a link. If no link, don’t post.

            1. I may actually have that forecast on my DVR. I’ll see if it’s the one and how he worded it. He would never say that stuff is frozen in a misleading fashion.

  35. Because I can be anal, I checked my birdbath. It is only partially frozen. There were also a couple of bottles of water on the deck table left from the weekend. The smaller one was frozen solid. This is the larger one. I think you can see ice and water. It is a Back deck with absolutely no sun in that location until 3:00 earliest.

    https://imgur.com/a/lDkQ6NE

  36. I would be very surprised if there is any body of water in SNE right now that is frozen enough to walk on. Even the stuff I saw in northern New England this past weekend was only partially frozen. You need 4” of ice to be able to walk safely on. We haven’t had the consistency or duration of cold this past week to grow ice that thick and so quickly.

        1. ha ha
          4 inches is the general “safe” rule.
          I have skated on ice so thin, that a healthy downward plunge of the butt end of a hockey stick would easily pierce through the ice.

          1. We used to skate and play hockey on a decent sized pond with a maximum depth of only about 4 feet, so the worst thing that would happen would be we’d get wet sometimes at the beginning of the season. And yes, as you might have suspected, I can be a bit of a risk-taker.

            I’ve ice fished on the Charles River and skated on the Charles River as well.

  37. Yawn…strecth…yawn
    Good morning.
    Looking more and more like a healthy dose of Rain on Monday with some models
    starting precip Late Sunday afternoon/early evening Sunday.

    Qpf ranging from about 1/2 inch to 2 inches plus depending upon model choice.

    WHERE oh WHERE is the cold air when you need it???? Ah that is the question
    and WILL it be missing EVERY stinken time there is a significant precipitation event?
    Probably so ALL Winter. 🙂

    1. And here is your GFS Kuchera snow through the wee hours of
      December 1st.

      https://imgur.com/a/shLGnIP

      Look at that healthly blanket of snow covering SNE.

      yeah yeah yeah, I it’s not Winter yet. I know already.
      It is just that we have seen some signifcant WASTED cold, that is all.

      Hope it is NOT a sign of things to come, which it probably is.

      We could still have an overall colder than averager Winter, yet get mostly
      rain out of all precipitation events.

      I am getting discouraged for sure. We’ll see how December looks.

      From my memory banks, it seems like Winter “generally” sets in sometime
      Between 12/5 and 12/15 or so. We shall see.

      1. So far I think November is doing a fairly decent job representing what I think the winter pattern may be largely like, but I don’t think it will be as cold (relative to normal) as a good portion of the first half of November has been. The idea also is for a dominant polar jet and occasional southern stream systems (unlike the endless parade of them last autumn / winter).

  38. From Gray:
    .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
    Active pattern in the cards during the long term period as a
    parade of rather high amplitude short wave troughs eject out of
    the western states and move eastward. The first of which appears
    to affect our weather Monday into Tuesday as one or two southern
    stream troughs move northward after making a turn in the
    southeastern states. The models are in loose agreement with the
    eventual overall picture with chances for mixed precipitation,
    but details like timing and ptype are going to be hard to pin
    down for awhile as the amplitude, track, and interaction of the
    approaching short wave troughs gets better resolved.

    Took an ensemble approach with temps at the SFC and aloft, with
    most weight given to the 00z ECMWF as it has shown good run to
    run consistency. The upshot is that the main chance of steady
    precipitation should be late Monday into Tuesday with a mixed
    bag quite possible. However, this is certainly subject to change
    as ensemble members offer very different takes on timing which
    isn`t all that surprising given the rather complex short wave
    trough configuration. With the aforementioned blend in mind,
    with most weight on the ECMWF, weather grids show a mixed bag of
    precipitation, with freezing rain, sleet, some snow, and rain
    all possible between Monday and Tuesday. The forecast will
    certainly have to be refined to be more specific with with time.

    Thereafter, most members of the 00z model suite continue the
    parade of short wave troughs, which means a potentially stormy
    pattern upcoming with colder than normal temperatures expected.

  39. For hr 192, that’s amazing agreement on both the 00z EURO and GFS for what they do with an approaching clipper.

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