Saturday Forecast

7:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
We are just beyond the mid point of this next-to-last month of 2019 and we’ve been feeling hints of winter, in some cases more than hints, like the sharpness of a couple cold air masses that had their sources in Siberia or near the North Pole. Santa must be in the spirit early! Anyway, another shot of that air is with us now, a little less stinging than the previous one, but nevertheless if you are outside today you’ll feel it, despite the bright but low angle November sunshine that rose in the 6AM hour and will say goodnight before 4:30PM. The high pressure area responsible for this latest batch of cold will not fully cross the region, but bank itself just to the north of here, then slide to the east. It will be strong enough, however, to hold a developing ocean storm south of New England somewhat at bay for a period of time, keeping it dry and at least partially sunny on Sunday as high cloudiness tries to increase across the the region while fighting dry air. A wildcard is whether or not we see any lower level ocean cloudiness come in from the east. This may be the case for some eastern areas of MA and NH and perhaps into RI. With this somewhat uncertain aspect of the forecast even 24 hours in advance I’ll keep simple wording in the details below then expand if needed for tomorrow’s update. Regardless, Sunday will be precipitation-free during the day, and probably for a good deal of the evening until finally later at night the moisture from the south starts to win the battle in more and more of the atmosphere. But this storm, unlike the NAM’s prediction of a close-to-the-coast track, is probably going to end up a little further offshore and we’ll be more on the outskirts of its envelope of moisture rather than right in the thick of it. Somewhat heavier rainfall may get close to or onto Cape Cod and perhaps near the MA eastern coast, but to me this looks largely like a lighter rain event. But what about that freezing rain/sleet that the news said may happen? Yes, it may happen, if we have enough precipitation, over interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH, so that will be something to watch for in the early hours of Monday. In some cases the ground is still too warm to support any freezing of precipitation, but there are exceptions, so it’s just better to be aware of what is possible. Any freezing/frozen stuff there will be short-lived as anything else that falls will be rain, but then the progressive nature of the system will bring it north and we’ll see a wind-down of rainfall. A few back-side patches of light rain/sleet may visit central MA and southern NH into Monday night. In previous updates I’d kept the clouds in tight for Tuesday, but enough dry air may get into the region behind the first system to clear us out at least partially for a while early Tuesday, and if we’re lucky enough it may not even by that bad a day. But what about the next system for Wednesday? Yup. It’ll be there – somewhere – probably too far offshore to have much of an impact other than a gusty northerly wind and a lot of clouds. We likely escape its entire precipitation shield but have enough unstable air over us for a rain or snow shower as temperatures will be borderline as far as precipitation-type goes. If I had to guess one way, odds favor rain showers over snow showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing slightly this afternoon. Wind chill in the 10s this morning, 20s at times this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain arrives south to north overnight. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning through early afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/ice/sleet possible central MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Weather systems should be moving along rather swiftly and we should see a nice day to start the period November 21, a quick-moving frontal system and low pressure area with unsettled weather for at least a portion of November 22 before a shot of chilly air arrives with wind which lasts into November 23 with dry weather. Watching for a passing low pressure system (quicker than previously though) November 24 with a precipitation threat, probably rain, but may stay south. If the pattern is as progressive as I currently think then we see dry weather back for the end of the period, kind-of, as there may be another trough approaching by late November 25. Note: Not super high confidence and this may still change.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Specific timing is iffy but there may be a departing trough with rain/snow showers to start then another system sometime later in the period (November 29?) with a precipitation threat. Looks like a fast-moving weather pattern with no major storminess at this time, and dry weather the vast majority of the time.

54 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks Tk I can handle the cold but my concern is the wind with this morning’s cleanup I’ll have 3 commercial blowers going so we will see . The jobs after are debris removal jobs .

      1. The cleanup could not have gone any better . Myself & my crew got a fall cleanup & 2 debris removal jobs , not a bad day in the field today .

  2. Thank you TK. Heading to my favorite farm in Sutton to watch the Norfolk hunt clubs fox hunt. I’ll wear a jacket today. The same farm was featured in a Lifetime television movie last night. Lots of fun.

    1. I didn’t know fox hunts still existed. Isn’t that somewhat cruel though? I think foxes are kinda cute and they don’t attack humans on sight as far as I know.

        1. Thank you for posting the explanation. It was tons of fun to watch. My horsey daughters girls accompanied me. It was 28 at the top of the hill and the wind was steady. You can see from the couple of pics how high we were. Just a lovely part of Sutton

          https://imgur.com/a/30YHjqz

        2. My oldest has participated in the Norfolk Horse shows several times and schooled horses this past spring for a few who were showing

    2. Enjoy! I’ll be enjoying a little bit of outside time today myself, minor touch up yard work before my son and I lay out the cords tomorrow in advance of the Christmas lights.

  3. Dave Epstein believes that November temps will average below normal and that snowfall this upcoming winter will be normal or thereabouts.

    1. Forget the 3km. It’s even more in error than the 12km.

      Compare the low center position from the 12km NAM between the 06z and 12z runs. This is the beginning of a model correction. It’s also starting to figure out the dry air and subtly slow the onset of rainfall.

  4. Thanks TK !

    I think I saw ch 7’s winter outlook on Facebook.

    If I read the graphic correctly, they predict a trof in the east with some southern stream moisture reaching up into southern New England. I think they are predicting 50 – 60 inches of snow for Boston.

    1. Yeah they are kind of going with the old fashioned winter. I’m not really seeing it, to be honest.

  5. TK – Any chance that the heaviest rain can hold off until after my 5-7 AM commute?

    The tv mets futurecasts have that wall of water pouncing into Boston well before then, if not by 2:00 AM.

  6. 12z GFS is a little more back to earth after a couple of so-so runs.

    I really think a good portion of Thanksgiving Week is going to be dry over a huge portion of the US. That’s excellent news for travel! Hoping nothing changes in that outlook.

  7. What is causing the radar echos up and down the East coast???
    it is clear here, yet radar shows prcip.
    Airplanes dropping little pieces of aluminum foil????

    1. Some kind of something or other. It may just be the cold/dry air interacting with something that is messing up the radar beams at all the sites. I have seen this before.

  8. 12km NAM is starting to lock in. Light precip event for most areas Monday (generally 1/2 inch or less for rainfall). Low track is pretty far offshore.

      1. Generally 0.25-0.75 everywhere would be a good broadbrush but the vast majority I believe will come in at 0.50 or lower. The coastal areas would have the greatest potential at those higher end amounts as it stands now. Either way, not a heavy event.

        May add a bit to those totals Tuesday AM with a lobe of energy coming across the region, kind of a tail or inverted trough being pulled along by the low.

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