Tuesday Forecast

131 Comments

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Here come the final 5 days of November, with Thanksgiving right in the middle of them. So many people are thinking of errands and pre-holiday travel, and today will be a great day for both, at least in terms of weather, which will be fair and mild under high pressure. Things will change Wednesday as low pressure tracks north of the region while maturing and sending an occluding frontal system through the region. This will be good for some rain shower activity as it will be mild. This will not be a major factor in travel – just resulting in less-than-ideal conditions. For Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, this low pressure area will be moving away but rather significant by then, so we’ll catch its departing energy first thing in the morning with a few rain/snow showers around, and feel its wind throughout the day as chilly air arrives. This won’t be anything close to the arctic blast that we experienced last Thanksgiving, however, but if you do plan to travel or be out at football games or running races, keep in mind it will be rather chilly and breezy. If you are a late-night shopper, or just traveling home later at night after a long after-dinner nap, expect it to be cold with a biting breeze, but again not as harsh as one year ago. This chilly, dry, breezy weather will persist through “Black Friday” and into Saturday as well as we’ll be in a northerly flow between low pressure well offshore and a large high pressure area in east central Canada.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers, mainly afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Partly sunny. Brief light rain/snow shower possible early to mid morning. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)
Sprawling low pressure approaches from the west early in the period and while it will be a large system, its track is crucial for how much precipitation and what type it takes occurs December 1 into December 2. There should be rain/snow line involved and we’ll take a closer look at this event in the days ahead. Follow this with drier, colder weather and then a smaller system with a risk of snow/mix showers later December 4 or December 5.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)
A general west to east flow should bring 1 or 2 disturbances across the region with precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures swings should work out to near to slightly below normal for the period.

131 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks so much, TK…
    Good morning!
    Last day of classes (with a football rally at 12:30!!!) before a five-day break!

    TK, would “higher gusts” be around 25 mph for the Thanksgiving morning football game? The football coach asked me what the winds might be as he needs to decide to go with a running or a passing game.

    1. Yes this will be around that time (probably all day). I suggest short pass plays and a running game be the main plan. The other team will probably do the same but at least it should equal things up in that regard.

      1. We used to have a half-day on Wednesday. Too many staff and students were travelling and out of school

    1. He’s currently typing &$^#&$&!&&@! because he thinks the trend may be too far south to give him much of anything. 😉

      1. Can’t you allow me to get up and get to the office?

        6Z GFS is GONE to the South, however, the 0Z Euro is still on board.

        Too early to tell.

        I’ll post the Euro snow map in a bit. Have to take care of a few things, the least of which is to get my mug of coffee so I can wake up!

  6. Thank you TK!

    Captain – nice that you have the day off tomorrow. Silver Lake has early dismissal but I know two boys that would much prefer to have the whole day off.

    2. Sutton has early dismissal tomorrow. I love that some schools are giving Wednesday off also. I always kept my kids home to help cook

  7. My snow contest guesses have been posted on the contest page, but in case you are wondering this is what it says:

    2019-2020 snowfall contest…

    General Edward Lawrence Logan International Airport: 40.0 inches
    JP #%@^&@! Dave’s Place: 50.0 inches
    Mark “The Islanders Fan” Observation Station: 60.0 inches

    1. Thanks TK.
      Don’t you usually post a detailed account of your Winter Outlook?
      Is that coming? or not this year? thanks

    1. Thanks Sue. I watched it last night. I am NOT buying it. We shall see.
      But, if it is just near average, I’ll take it. This 55-65 inches for Boston
      is too high, imho.

      1. I figured you probably did see it but was hoping it might give you a smile and some hope. 🙂 I think about what TK said yesterday and how incredibly hard it must be to try to predict an entire season, especially winter. All we can do is hope that Mother Nature is kind to those of us who enjoy a good snowstorm.

  9. Hello again,

    As promised, here are a couple of Euro maps, surface and snow map.

    https://imgur.com/a/E4gh5yw

    As depicted, there would be considerable rain along the coast, but still an accumulation.

    I, for one, do not believe that this system passes South of the area. We shall see.
    DYING to see the 12Z Euro, but alas, I have to wait. 🙂

  10. Thanks TK
    What a start to meteorological winter in my area if the 0z EURO verifies. To me when a model calls for big snows way out there it often does not materialize. The one exception I could remember the Blizzard of 2013

      1. Although the snowy scenario could happen, the more likely scenario is a slop fest with snow, then rain, then some backend
        snow. UNLESS it passes to the South.

        How’s that for being wishy washy?

  18. Interesting to see the 12z models slowing the departure of the Gulf of Maine low pressure area Thanksgiving morning.

    Perhaps some snow showers in the air in eastern areas Thanksgiving morning?

    When I look at the NAO and AO outlooks today, I see the NAO reach its most negative point before 12/1 and 12/2.

    When I look at the AO, its slowly trending away from neutral AO towards positive AO before 12/1 and 12/2.

    The 12/1, 12/2 scenario seems dependent on blocking to have the initial primary system suppressed under us. I’m not fully sold on this, based on the predicted behavior of the teleconnections.

    I recall Dick Albert with TETT …. Too early to tell …….

  20. Thanks TK, and great write-up on the winter forecast as well. This all makes sense based on everything I have been looking at and reading as well.

    Despite the typical uncertainties with a winter forecast, I am definitely more confident on our chances for snow this winter. Plentiful cold air supply and we have what look to be favorable indices setting up with more frequent +PNA, -NAO and a SST warming event.

    The potential for more Greenland blocking this year is something we haven’t had much of in recent winters and we are seeing the effect it can have now based on what the models are doing with the upcoming Sun-Mon system.

    You bring up an interesting scenario for later winter though where the blocking is too strong and shunts everything south a la 2010. A scenario like that could indeed backload the winter for the mid Atlantic but keep us drier.

    I’ll take my chances though. Getting the cold air in here is big and that’s half the battle. I think we’ll get enough in the way of energy from the subtropical jet and some clipper systems with redevelopment off the mid-Atlantic coast (your Miller B storms) to give us a good winter with above average snow.

    1. Whatever happens with this system, I think the jackpot areas which stay all snow stand a good chance to get a foot or more. And while SNE might not be in that jackpot, good chance it at least starts as snow here and we have our first widespread accumulating snow of the season.

      Not too concerned at all about an OTS solution right now.

  23. OK, here are my “final” snow guesses which I also posted on the Contests page. I nudged them up a bit from my original guess from last week….

    Logan 47.3″
    JP Dave 57.9″
    Mark/Coventry 70.1″

  24. Re: Snow Contest…..

    If you haven’t posted a guess yet or already have early on, feel free to add a guess for Coventry, CT as we will be tracking it as well. I couple facts about my location (not to sway your guesses)….

    – I am in Tolland County in NC/NE CT about 16 miles E/NE of Hartford
    – Elevation of my house is 675′
    – I am typically a good 5-7 degrees colder than Hartford at any give time.

    Snow totals the past several seasons FYI….

    2018-2019: 45″
    2017-2018: 74″
    2016-2017: 66.5″
    2015-2016: 43.9″
    2014-2015: 88.5″
    2013-2014: 65″
    2012-2013: 100″
    2011-2012: 26″
    2010-2011: 82″

  25. I don’t think there is going to be even decent continental air in place ahead of this 12/1, 12/2 precip.

    If it snows inland, I don’t think the column is going to have ratios that create 15 or 20 : 1, but more like 10 or 12 : 1. Going to need a lot of melted precip to get foot plus totals with not a very cold column seen during mid winter.

    2. Our cold air supply is coming from the north/eastern CA due to the strong block. I don’t see any problem with that cold air holding tough initially as the primary dies and the energy transfer to Virginia takes place. Redeveloping coastal storm should lock it in and reinforce/draw down more cold to the N and W of the storm track.

      Track is going to be key. If it’s hugging the coast, most of SNE is going to flip to mix/rain with the warm ocean waters regardless. More offshore = more snow. Initially I think it snows everywhere in either scenario.

    3. I should add I don’t necessarily disagree with your ratios but I do think this system will be capable of producing 1-1.5″ of melted precip where it stays all snow.

  27. Thank TK. I’ve posted my numbers on the Contests page and a bit of reasoning on the winter outlook post (which was excellent!)

    Like JMA, seasonal forecasting is something I consider myself neither especially good at nor especially interested in. My main passion is the bread and butter days 1-7 forecast. Beyond that, I think I’ve gotten better at “sub-seasonal” predictions, i.e. semi-quantitative assessments of likely patterns and anomalies in the 2-4 week ahead period. But beyond that, we’re just not that good to be able to say. I’m certainly not at least. Remember, winter is a long season, and there will be a lot of ups and downs. What happens over the next two weeks is unlikely to make or break any seasonal forecasts.

  28. It’s going to be marginal at best as to whether the balloons are able to fly in NYC on Thursday. At this point, assuming they stick to the established wind safety criteria, I’d say it’s more likely they’re grounded. Those balloons are enormous; there are definitely major safety concerns in a high wind event.

  29. Mark: Your snow totals have been quite impressive. You sorta got skunked in 2015 relatively speaking though (88.5”vs. 110.6” Logan).

    Just curious. What is the average snowfall for Coventry?

    1. Yeah I was on the outer fringes of several of those larger storms in 2015 that crushed Boston.

      I really have no idea what the average snow at my location is as we don’t have an official reporting station in my town. If I average the last 9 years where I have been keeping track, it is 65.7″.

      BDL averages 43″ but I suspect their average over the past 9 years is higher than that. We had some loaded winters in there and really only one true stinker.

      If I had to estimate, I would say I average a good 15″ per year more than Hartford and Boston.

      1. Thanks Mark. Your average is probably either side of 60 inches, give or take. 🙂

        And I bet your school district is good for 1-2 snow days, minimum. 🙂

  30. Dave… I’m assuming you have found my winter outlook by now. 🙂 I posted it just several minutes before this forecast entry.

  31. Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade… if I recall correctly the wind threat last Thanksgiving was being considered more significant than this one, and I believe all but one of the balloons took part last year. I think the wind will underperform forecasts and the balloons will fly

    2. I’m trying to recall what that one was but think you are correct. I hope you are right but They are sure to make the right decision.

    1. to me, its 120 hr panel of today looks similar in low location and intensity to its 144 hr panel of yesterday for both 12z op runs.

  34. Euro scenario looks more reasonable with not excessive amounts of blocking.

    GFS scenario I’d believe if NAO was going to be 2-3 standard deviations negative phase.

    2. AH, that blows!!!!
      BUT, it is 5 1/2 – 6 days out and there is much room for change, however, any change I fear is likely to be W and/or N of course!!

  36. The ECMWF is depicting 48 hours of precip in SNE which is going to over do any snowfall map at this point. Probably adds 2-3” of accumulation to a lot of SNE. I know shocking – the ECMWF is holding onto precip too long…

    Best forecast. Many areas of SNE have the opportunity to see their 1st accumulating snowfall on 12/1-12/2 Just as TK called a week ago.

  38. It’s too early to panic and to get disappointed, but I am not liking the trends at all.
    Each Euro run is slightly more N&W. It will probably end up cutting up the Hudson. 🙂

  40. Just finish reading the complete Tk Winter Outlook.
    Fabul0us, excellently written discussion. Thank You TK.

  41. for our area, I am leaning
    Temperatures Normal to below normal for southern new England and below normal the further north and west you go.
    Precipitation around normal
    Snowfall, above normal north and west. Around Normal east of I95, probably a tad below normal for the coastal cities.
    (active clipper system season) (great lake snowfall above average) 3 storm tracks I feel will be at least some what active. large overarching question is will we see enough interactions of the sub-tropical and polar jet. Release of winter forecast like usual The Friday or Saturday after Thanksgiving.

  45. 18z Gfa is interesting to say the least.
    at least some snow in boston up to 6 inches or so after a slug of rain.

  46. Lovely November evening. No need for heater on deck and salmon and asparagus packet is cooking on grill. Christmas songs playing. Does it get better. So thankful.

  47. Don’t mind snow after rain, which the 18GFS appears to indicate. Do mind rain after snow.

    We’ll see what happens. Getting interesting. Sooner or later Hadi and Arod will join us in the winter fun.

    Today was a gorgeous fall day, or a preview of a spring tease.

    Happy Thanksgiving to all!

  49. This was one of those games were the Bruins were all playing ON and Montreal was just having “one of those nights”. This game was over at the beginning of the 2nd period.

    8-1 final. In Montreal. Ouch night for Canadiens fans! Can’t say I feel too bad. 😉

    1. going to be mostly rain no matter how you slice it. some snow? probably, but more rain than snow &%^%^*&%%^%&^%^&%&^%&^%&^

  56. Updating now. I went for fasting bloodwork shortly after sunrise then couldn’t help treating myself to a breakfast and a short photo shoot at the local pond. 😉

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