Wednesday Forecast

120 Comments

9:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
I’m a bit late with the post this morning so right to it with a quick update. Only minor tweaks for this forecast with everything very similar to yesterday’s update. Mature low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley today and tonight sends an occluded front across the region with a couple bands of rain, timed to move west to east across the region to slow any late-day / evening commute. But hey, it’s not snow right? This moves out overnight as low pressure redevelops in the Gulf of Maine then moves eastward. A lobe of energy on what was the old frontal boundary will swing through southeastern New England during the early to mid morning hours of Thanksgiving Day, producing lots of clouds and possibly a couple passing rain or snow showers. This will not be a major factor for morning road races and football games, but the wind will start to pick up during this time and it will be on the chilly side by then, so keep this in mind if you plan to be outside watching or partaking in any of these events. By the afternoon, drier air will be taking over and sunshine will be more dominant, as will a chilly breeze. These breezy and chilly conditions will persist through Friday and into Saturday as the low to the east becomes a beast and a big high pressure area sits in eastern Canada. This high pressure area will initially do its part to hold off the next low pressure area moving toward the region, but clouds will move in by Sunday, and precipitation by Sunday night, which may start as snow over a good portion of the region with just enough cold air in place. Will fine-tune this as we get closer.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Thickening overcast. Scattered to numerous rain showers mainly central MA and southwestern NH later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with numerous rain showers west to east, probably in a couple bands. Mostly cloudy overnight with isolated rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with passing rain and snow showers morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix (mix/rain South Coast) late day or night. Highs 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Low pressure should pass just south of the region December 2 but close enough to bring enough warm air in both surface and aloft for a mainly rain event (after a possible start as snow the night before). Will still have to monitor for any changes in the storm track. Windy/colder/drier December 3 behind this system. Next low pressure system threatens later December 4 to early December 5 with rain or snow but may be too far offshore for significant impact. Dry, chilly weather follows this.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
General west to east flow. Dry weather should dominate in the December 7-9 time frame with unsettled weather (rain or snow threat) later in the period.

120 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Heading up to Upstate NY for the Thanksgiving later today. It’s looking like we are in for a nasty drive back on Sunday. Likely to be snowing the entire way.

    1. If you are planning on an afternoon drive, I’d say yes – a snowy drive. Your only hope is dry air is stronger and things hold off longer.

      1. Yeah I’m preparing for the worst and getting new tires installed today (badly needed). We may ski up at Gore Saturday so I have no desire to truncate our trip and leave a day early. We’ll just have to take it slow.

  4. The threat for late Sunday / Monday, still 4+ days away…
    If you are looking at media, remember not to take any detail away from it. It’s too early to know exactly how that unfolds. But I do think it will be cold enough initially for a large portion of the region to start as snow Sunday night. If it were a case that precipitation came in quickly enough, it would certainly accumulate before it was too warm to stay snow. That’s as detailed as I can possibly get right now. Nothing solid.

    1. Super deep storm. Those usually max out before they reach land. Many have been stronger or had lower pressure, but the first time one that deep has been recorded in CA. Impressive!

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Your forecast is exactly what many of us thought it would be for Sunday night
    into Monday. NOT blaming you, but what a BUMMER!

    Close enough to bring enough warm air in both surface and aloft for a mainly rain event (after a possible start as snow the night before)

    A couple of thoughts on this:

    1. It’s still Autumn and not Winter. Climatology is against us for any kind of decent snow event.
    2. When is the last time we saw a deep low headed for Manitoba/Saskatchewan EVER
    redevelop in a position South of SNE to give our area Snow??????? There may be an occurrence or 2 under extreme conditions (ie Blocking and really cold Arctic High to our North), but generally speaking one can kiss Snow good-bye in this set up.
    3. Yes, we have been teased by early prognostications from some of the models. So
    what else is new?????? We should have known better OR I should have!!!

    1. More than likely Tk Boston / south will receive a straight cold rain from start to finish . Plenty of time . Happy thanksgiving my friend .

        1. Let’s continue to monitor the Track and see where it’s at on Friday as it is still 4 days away . Ch7 last night was thinking all rain as well ( but saying it was still to early to lock it in .

            1. lol sue no way . I had to take today off so I watched the 10pm news last night on ch7. Happy thanksgiving Sue.

    2. Some of the earlier Euro runs had redevelopment much farther south near Virginia. The secondary storm forming off NJ is too late and no bueno for locking in much cold air. We still are 4 days away though as has been said above…

  11. So there is hope for “underperforming wind” in NYC regarding the parade balloons. You wouldn’t hear this term used, because the focus is always on low pressure, but there may be a little pressure perturbation that essentially is the opposite of a trough line, like a mini ridge line, going around the back side of the departed low, that essentially loosens up the gradient in the NYC area for a few hours during the late morning & midday hours (per NAM’s timing, so I hope it’s right). It’s a difficult feature to pick out just quickly looking at the loop, but a tad bit of analysis of the forecast will reveal it. I know they have to decide sooner, but I think this may be what takes place there.

  13. Three days above 50. Very nice. Four of the thanksgiving dishes made, house cleaned and now time for a hallmark Christmas movie

  15. You all will like this ECMWF run. A general foot of snow north of 495/95 interchange for most of SNE as the main low passes between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket then creates a long north east fetch creating a 54 hour accumulating snow event.

    I will currently be forecasting more likely outcomes for the weather on Pluto.

    I do think most of SNE starts as snow and then changes to a mix far west and rain otherwise.

  18. Wishing you all a wonderful and special Thanksgiving with family and friends!

    Off to announce the early morning football game in Middleborough tomorrow, then dinner with family. Will be checking in here off and on throughout the long weekend about weather conditions for Sunday and Monday. Looking forward to the weather adventures!

    JPD, thanks for sharing the COD website awhile back. I am having a blast with it! I even believe I understand some of it! 🙂

    And, TK, thanks for all of your effort, insight and dedication with this blog!!! It is, indeed, a fun place to hang out each day.

    Enjoy the holiday, and Blessings to us all!

  24. I’d like to wish an early Happy Thanksgiving to you all! Spare a thought for those of us still on the job tomorrow, not just in meteorology but all our essential services; not fun but it’s part of what we do.

    I hope TK is right, but I’m actually less optimistic on the parade balloons today than I was yesterday. I see the feature TK is talking about but it may be too small scale and localized to make a difference. If anything the trend in guidance today was for stronger winds overall, which has yielded an expansion of wind advisories down this way. I’m sure they’ll do all they can to get them in the air but it may not be possible.

      1. In general agreement with TK. Would not be surprised to see many areas even within the I-95 corridor see accumulating snow during the afternoon and through the first part of the overnight. Much of the day Sunday will likely be dry though; snow/mix should hold off until late afternoon or evening in Boston. Not a blockbuster snow event by any means but plenty cold ahead of the storm to support snow/mix to start before a changeover.

          1. WxW:
            Not sure if I want to wish you a quiet day or a busy day tomorrow as I know you love “interesting” weather and you’re excellent at forecasting it!!! 🙂
            Anyway, will be thinking of you and will save a piece of pie!!! 🙂

    2. Wishing you a very happy Thanksgiving, WxW. And always special thoughts for those who will be away from families. Military. First responders. Medical personnel. Transportation crews. Truck drivers. Meteorologists. I am sure I missed naming some, but it does not make me any less grateful.

  25. Harvey’s early snowfall map has Boston in the “snow & mix” zone.

    N/W “mostly snow”
    SE MA “ snow & rain”

    Is this trending colder?

  26. Well after 4 deployments to the Middle East, 3 deployments to Guam, countless trips to Most of Europe and the Far East including Central Pacific I wore the Air Force uniform for the last time today. Retirement! Boy 25 plus years goes by quick! And I would do it all over again. Thank you all for posting and thank you TK for this blog as it helped past the time and kept New England in my mind when on the road. Hope you all have a great and happy Thanksgiving!

    3. Wow, Diamond!
      Congratulations on your retirement and thank you for your service!
      Enjoy your free time!

    7. Thank you so much Diamond for everything you have done . I love the American flag & everything it stands for . God bless America . Thank you very , very much Diamond.

  27. Thank you all for the kind words. It’s been an afternoon of reflections looking back. Was some really great times and amazing experiences! I wasn’t quite ready to do it but the body just couldn’t keep up. Hahaha! Now let’s turn on the snow!!

    1. I just got to the blog for the first time in a bit (been out most of afternoon). A sincere thank you! That doesn’t even seem nearly adequate enough…

      I answered your email in case you didn’t see it yet. It was a little bit on the fly so I apologize for the quick answer. Been a crazy few days, well, few weeks, well, few months, ok, 2019… 😉

      1. Yes I saw your reply thank you. I replied back to the email that you sent it from. Not sure if you saw that one or not

        1. Yes I have it working now.

          I’ve just been checking it sporadically and usually when I’m running by my computer lately. 😉

  32. Diamond your sacrifices and service to this country are very much appreciated!!
    Congrats on your retirement!!
    My oldest son has had an infatuation with plans since he was a toddler, and wants to be a pilot, and is seriously considering going into the Air Force. Two years ago we took a road trip to Dayton Ohio to visit the national Air Force museum, it was an unbelievable experience.

    1. I loved aircraft since age 5 when we went on a trip to Disney. I never wanted to be a pilot so I became a mechanic. It’s a job I enjoy immensely and the gratification you feel when you complete a repair then to see it rotate on the runway going airborne is amazing. Especially when your thousands of miles from home. Check out the museum at Dulles. It’s almost as good as Wright Pat. Thanks for the kind words

      1. I would recommend he seriously considers joining the AF. He can get all his flight hours including multi-engine. He would be far ahead of the pack if he wanted to do airline service later on.

      1. Awesome. I am also. Gods fingernail is my moms moon and I always know she is near. The rest is just beyond special.

  36. Soooo TK. General west to east flow. Dry weather should dominate in the December 7-9 time frame with unsettled weather (rain or snow threat) later in the period.

    Later as in December 9 😉

  38. Message to TK … indoor weather question.

    There was a time many moons ago when fog used to form during Bruins games in the ole garden. Do you know why that used to happen versus today when you don’t see it anymore?

    Thanks, Longshot

    1. I think it had a lot to do with an aging building . There were lots of problems towards the end in the old barn .

      1. Back when the ole garden was “new” hockey playoff games were played during April, not June like it is now. It all started when owners got greedy, as the article stated.

        Thanks Dr. S.

    3. Bad air conditioning system…

      The air was simply more warm and moist than your standard average building. Add a cold ice surface and….

        1. TK’s here updating the blog and watching the parade from Plymouth on Ch 5’s web page with his early morning coffee. 😉

          Heading out to Woburn / Winchester football in a while!

  40. EURO and CMC on board with a “mostly” snow event Boston N&W. Some mix, but
    more snow than not. 🙂 🙂

    Party pooper GFS say NOPE, mostly rain with a touch of snow thrown in.

    NAMs coming into range.

    1. Pete Bouchard explained last night how the ECMWF model in this situation is too cold and forecast too much snow for too long, and that the American Model (GFS) is much more reliable. I thought he did a great job in the brief time he had to explain this to the viewers. Hmm, I think Pete is JMA! (J/K) … The CMC, well, it’s the CMC. I probably wouldn’t use that model for guidance if it were the only model. 😉 Thankfully it isn’t.

      1. Party Pooper…..

        NWS explains as well this morning…

        Given the trend in
        recent model runs to slow the progression of the trough and keep
        the parent low further north for longer, and the relatively
        warm ocean waters this early in the season, am leaning toward a
        mainly interior snow event with this system.

        Well, perhaps the GFS will be correct, but remember a few days ago it wanted to take this system OTS South of us. I do not
        trust the GFS.

        What the NWS stated above makes sense and fits with
        Climo, so We shall see.

        Despite what the EURO snow maps show, the snow forecast
        for Boston is only 4.8 inches total, so clearly that includes
        a lot of mix and perhaps periods of plain rain.

        Can’t wait to see how it plays out.

        1. I believe Harvey chose incorrectly, and the GFS has been handling these systems well in the shorter range.

  41. Awaiting the final word but it looks like the balloons are going to fly, just held a bit lower. I still feel they may luck out with wind gusts staying under the high-end for no fly.

    Blog update nearly done…

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