Saturday Forecast

196 Comments

8:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
On this final day of November, a day which will feature weather similar to the next-to-last day of November (chilly, breezy, and dry), the fine-tuning continues regarding the storm threat that starts off our December. It’s a broad area of low pressure, the center of which will be a redevelopment of a mature / occluded storm system in the Plains, moving eastward and passing just south of New England on a west to east track, but also elongating and occluding itself as it does so due to the nature of the upper level pattern above it. This makes it a longer-duration storm, despite its eastward progression, with precipitation beginning as early as Sunday afternoon and ending as late as Tuesday afternoon. The details of what happens between the start and end window are the puzzle to figure out, and the reasoning for what follows is based on computer models often struggling with precipitation types, low centers, precipitation amounts, and surface temperatures in this “early-season” set-up. So instead of analyzing every piece of data, every model, and reading everybody else’s forecasts to find fault or agreement with them, I’ve resorted to just simple analysis and experience, whatever that’s worth – and I guess we’ll find out what it’s worth in this case. This is how I think it plays out for southeastern New England: Storm’s precip arrives west to east Sunday afternoon and evening as snow most locations, maybe rain or mix Cape Cod and South Coast as surface temperatures will be marginal there. Precipitation intensity picks up rather quickly Sunday evening, still as snow for a good part of the region, and this is when most of our accumulation will take place. Early numbers, maybe a coating South Coast and Cape Cod if it snows long enough, then it goes to rain, a solid coating (1/2 inch or so) up to 2 inches across the bulk of southern and central RI through southeastern MA and right up to Logan before going to rain during the night, 2-4 inches along the I-95 belt including south central MA and eastern CT in general before going to a sleet/ice mix and probably to rain eventually, 4-8 inches for the I-495 belt from its ending near the MA/NH border down to around I-90 and all points west of there before going to sleet/ice mix with potential pockets of plain rain for a while, with greater than 8 inch amounts possible in the highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH where it snows for the longest. Once we get into the day Monday, some drying aloft between the newer low and its older parent low still to the west will likely limit the precipitation somewhat, and any snow over the interior will struggle to accumulate. Monday night as the parent low in its dying stage also passes just to the south of the region, it will turn somewhat colder from northwest to southeast and we should see a switch back to snow, but also a gradual break up of the precipitation area into a more patchy or snow showery nature that will linger into Tuesday morning. Additional snow accumulation is possible from this back-end snow but at this time I don’t think it will amount to all that much. There is just enough uncertainty with this part of the system to keep a close eye on it in case it ends up being a little more organized here. Regardless, whatever is left on the ground will do an early December freeze-up as it gets cold later Tuesday and Tuesday night, along with a gusty wind, but it will also be clearing out at that time. Oh yes, I almost forgot, there will be life after “the storm” too so what will the weather do? Well in a fast-moving pattern we’ll already have another trough approaching on Wednesday so look for some additional cloudiness to arrive and perhaps some snow showers, although it already looks like the main energy with the initial system passes well to the north and a new low evolves too far offshore to have any significant impact.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except rain or mix South Coast, arriving mid to late afternoon west to east. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow I-495 belt from about I-90 northward, snow to mix/rain elsewhere, rain most likely closer to the coastline. See above for snow accumulation info. Lows 28-33 interior, 34-39 coast. Wind NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast. Mix/snow southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain elsewhere, diminishing but turning back to snow further east later in the day. Highs 32-37 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix near the coast and still some rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 26-31 interior, 32-37 coast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with passing snow showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Icy areas on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Low pressure offshore moves away, breezy and chilly December 5 but mainly dry. Trough pushes through later December 6 or early December 7 with a snow shower threat but no major storm, otherwise mainly dry and chilly through December 8 and warming up somewhat end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Passing trough brings rain/snow showers December 10-11. Low pressure system brings snow/rain threat about December 13. Temperatures not too far from normal.

196 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. A hint that the NAM is struggling to resolve the final part of the upcoming system. Just simply look at the difference in how it covers that back-end snow between the 00z run and 06z run. It’s sample forecast point in Middlesex County received 8 inches Monday night from the 00z run, while the 06z gave the same sample point 3 inches. I suspect the 12z will continue the trend of scaling it back to some degree. We’ll know not long from now.

    1. Oh trust me there is a fair chance they are right and I am the one that needs to be enlightened. 😉

      But I can’t agree with their numbers at this point.

  4. I heard that 17 Patriots players listed as questionable due to the flu. I guess the Cowboys got their revenge as they had the flu last week.

    Having said that, are flu shots mandatory for all NFL players and coaches? If not they should be.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK!
    It’s going to be a real close call here in south central Worcester county, between snow and rain or sleet I think. Have a feeling on lower totals here.

    1. One of the shorter range models that handles this type of situation generally well paints a large area of sleet for interior SNE rather early in the event. I do think it may be a tad aggressive but I can’t rule that scenario out.

  6. I hope it’s ok to have some fun and throw out predictions for the storm.

    I’ll go with the 3 locations we have for the contest plus hometown and max amount.

    Logan : 2.6″
    JP : 5.2″
    Mark : 6.7″
    Marshfield : 1.4″
    Max : 10.8″ in some elevated area either in SW NH, around rte 2, or out in the berkshires.

    TK has me nervous about monday night not being too impressive, in which case, my numbers are too high.

  8. Thanks so much, TK…

    Now the first of December was covered with snow
    So was the turnpike from Stockbridge to Boston
    The Berkshires seemed dream-like on account of that frosting
    With ten miles behind me and ten thousand more to go

    Looks like JT’s forecast may pan out this year!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9MncdJ_lOs

    One of my all-time favorite songs!

  9. Enjoy your first winter storm of the season. It might not be all snow but this is early in a season in which I feel you will see plenty of snow chances. Only thing though is that I feel that when I go up I will be bad luck and it will barely snow until I leave in Mid January to go back to school. 😛

    im leaning 0-2 south coast/cape and islands. Southern RI and Southern CT
    2-4 along south and east of I95
    4-8 I95 to 495 and I95 to mass pike including interior valleys
    8 to 12 outside of 495 higher elevations up into NH and VT
    Pockets of 12+ NW Massachusetts into southern VT

  10. I didn’t put it in my discussion above, but I have an inkling that the initial burst of snow may actually be delayed by a couple hours due to drier air to overcome than the guidance thinks. Wonder if the 12z NAM may start to pick up on this.

    I’ll be looking soon. I’m on the final day of decorating for Christmas and also we have a festival in Woburn this afternoon/evening (basically the tree lighting, which is really the lighting of the common).

  11. For those who follow golf, and probably many who do not, very sad news for the golfing community. Tom Watson’s wife passed away from pancreatic cancer. She was 63. Mr. Watson has long been a favorite of mine…humble and kind.

    1. I loosely followed it through the years. T.W. was a favorite of mine from what I did follow. Sad. That is a nasty, unforgiving disease. 🙁

    5. Reading more, she had been declared cancer free at one point and then the cancer reappeared a month later. I can’t imagine.

  13. Trivia Quiz. (Maybe not the best-worded either.)

    What’s the biggest snowstorm ever to start the month of December in Boston?

    A. 6.0 inches
    B. 7.5 inches
    C. 9.5 inches
    D. 11.5 inches

    Answer later today.

    1. what does start the month mean? Exactly Dec 1st? OR Just early in Dec????
      Why can’t they word these quizes properly???? Can’t answer otherwise as it makes a huge difference.

        1. I’m assuming it means the first significant December snow by date since it started the month. It’s a quiz inside a quiz. Quite fun.

  14. Even though the area is getting this snow storm the rest of December honestly looks rather hostile towards any winter storm development for the east coast/New England. This storm is breaking the cold pattern I feel like.

  17. Will that backside produce? I have to think the EURO thinks so as well, given its snowfall projections.

    IF it does, where does that band or 2 set up, intensify and sit for a while as it does the classic pivot, first E to W, then NE to SW, then N to S and finally NW to SE before
    Moving offshore.

    1. Thanks, Scott. I was just reading his and Pete’s. Both measured….no pun. I’m liking twitter more and more

  21. One thing that’s nice about being a couple days out on an event, you don’t have to wait forever on the GFS to see what it’s projecting, especially since it’s every 3 hours per panel.

  23. 12z RGEM aggressive with snow totals for interior MA. This model only goes out 48 and there is still an area of snow to the west of SNE that looks like it wants to pivot into SNE.

  24. I really hope the public, seeing the snow maps, doesn’t think that once the snow starts Sunday evening, it’s going to snow heavily all night and by the time they wake up Monday morning, there’s going to be a lot of snow on the ground.

    And then to boot, Monday may feature a lull with drizzle or not much of anything for a time.

    I guess that’s why I’m so focused on what happens Monday night. I think that’s the whole key on whether projected snowfall totals verify, come close or bust.

    Without part 3 of the system, I’m not too impressed with parts 1 and
    2 as snow producers go.

    1. Maybe I misinterpreted but I got the impression by Dave Epstein that much of Boston’s accumulation will be from part 3.

  25. What are your looking at here to me 1-2 inches front end snow then a mixorama or rainorama depending on location and a switch back to snow. The key to getting those projected snowfall totals to verify is back end snow.

  26. As much as I miss Barry on weekend mornings, I like the way Dave Epstein explains things. I hope he will assume that position once Barry retires for good. I just can’t get into these young tv mets. They seem robotic at times. I can’t really explain it.

    1. Those who excel at explanation, other than the obvious Harvey & Barry, include but are not necessarily limited to Dave Epstein, Petey B., Eric, & Tim Kelly.

  27. I wish the WRF series had a positive snow depth change map and not just a 10:1 snowfall forecast map…

  29. Models are confusing.
    Most of them keep 925, 850 and 700 mb temps well below freezing.
    Yet, a few introduce warming at about the 850mb level.

    Even the ones where the higher levels keep below freezing, still show RAIN.
    Damn boundary layer issues. I posted something on the previous blog from the Euro that I’d like to re-post as it dramatically depicts this boundary layer issue:

    Interesting tid bit from the Euro….

    I checked temperatures for the duration of the event. It is hard to believe in this set up, but the Euro shows 925mb, 850mb and 700mb temperatures ALL remaining below
    freezing from about 30 miles or so South of Boston N&W. In other words the atmosphere above us would support Snow. But alas, it will be raining. Why?

    Can you say Boundary Layer (due to that warm ocean!).

    Look at this surface temperature map from the Euro:

    https://imgur.com/a/UVo8Ma9

    Reply
    Jpdave says:
    November 30, 2019 at 8:01 AM
    Notice the Euro snow kind of lines up with those surface temperatures. Pretty
    cool.

    https://imgur.com/a/d9s2FFw

    1. Could there be a surprise? Say the intensity is strong enough to hold the
      warming at bay? Probably not on immediate coast, but say 5 or 6 miles back?
      That is what I will be watching for. Any way, that is what I hope happens.
      Reality will sink in regardless. 🙂

  30. As we all go back and forth about snowfall amounts and model choices – just remember two plus weeks ago TK identified that on or about 12/2 as the date for the first widespread snowfall in SNE. That is forecast skill and a lot more difficult than say, identifying the period from MLK Day to Presidents’ Day as the most likely period for significant snow…

    1. I recall a few years ago, in July, TK also predicted a snowy december and possible snow on,…….yep, December 9. And guess what happened

    2. That’s badass. Oh and the GFS had this like a week ago. However is plays out on the ground within five miles we can split hairs about but it had the general idea. Pretty cool.

  31. As for the quiz, posted at 9:24 AM, I think it means the first significant snowfall in December. I stated I thought it was poorly worded and I also chose the wrong answer.

    1. Yeah right. How many times has it been in single digits/teens for highs leading up to a major RAIN event? 😉

      I swear, SNE must be the only location in the U.S. that occurs.

  38. At hr 72, 8am Tuesday, there’s still a decent NNE flow at 850 mb along with temps of -2 to -5.

    Euro must think comma head is going to be productive.

    2. I was going to post something related to this.

      I have been watching the Euro on my service, 925, 850, 700 AND 500 mb.
      There is a rather potent E to NE flow at all of these levels with temps BELOW freezing.

      This is clearly something to be watched.

      Also my service has been showing rain with surface temp at 36 with all other levels below freezing. I believe that it would actually be snowing.

      In short, snow totals may be too low near the coast.

      I am really intrigued by this set up. I really want to see how long
      I hold onto to snow here in JP. Will it flip quickly? or hold on?

      Time will tell. We’ll have fun tomorrow.

      Will post my service Euro snow map shortly. It is a little slow coming out.

      2. I think you just hit on a new fun focus. Once it starts, it will be fun to see at our specific locations what it starts as, how long before a change over, and when it changes back.

        As you can see, I am easily amused.

  39. From NWS
    …This as
    the low moves east wrapping colder air around the backside. It`s
    then possible we`ll see another round of heavier snow with good
    dynamic forcing/mesoscale deformation banding setting up, but a
    high degree of uncertainty on where this would set up…

  42. 18z NAM (12km) has slowed the onset of the precipitation slightly, maybe 1 to 2 hours, over the previous run.

        1. Yes! Exactly what I thought when watching that! He’s operating out of his home and (obviously) working his own green screen with the default settings that does not agree with his wild hair lol

      1. He was always one of my favorites. It’s fun when his videos pop up in my subscriptions. For a home operation of his own it’s actually pretty decent!

        1. Yes. Always liked Mark. We had a moment on the phone once in the mid 1980s when he was annoyed that I was the zillionth caller about hail, but we got beyond it. 😉

          1. I just watched that video too. Will see what happens. I think the public is going to get confused with snow, rain and snow again. It will be a mess the next fees days.

    1. Oof rainorama will get people angry if it verifies because people are just looking at higher end numbers as they tend to do and will just grumble even though people have said rain would be a factor.

        1. AND perhaps a lot of snow overnight Monday into Tuesday. Nam still advertising a very potent back end
          to this system.

  45. HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!!

    The NAM just blew a head gasket!! HOLY DOUBLE CRAP BATMAN!!!!

    EUREKA!!!!!!

    Still Snowing at 1 PM on Tuesday and it shows a MAJOR DUMP of snow, even for Boston.

  46. 18Z Kuchera Snow from various outlets…

    Instant Weather Maps

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2019113018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=081

    College of DuPage

    https://imgur.com/a/jRQFNqE

    Pivotal Weather

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019113018/081/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Obviously each site uses their own variation of Kuchera to compute the snow totals.

    I’ll add my F5 service version in a while as it is only out to hour 66. looks big so far.

  47. We need another 24 to 36 hrs of thought and model runs for Monday night.

    May be a back side blitz that is memorable. Thundersnow, etc …… a big swath of pivoting snow and within it, one or 2 of those bands capable of producing those crazy snowfall rates.

  48. The 18Z GFS will bring everything back down to Earth. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    But it was fun just seeing those maps.

    Wait till you see the next one.

  50. NWS snowfall map should update very very soon as I can see the text near it having been updated at 3:42 pm. Based on the text advisories, their snowfall projections may be a bit higher than this mornings map.

  53. And if the backside produces in Boston, it’s going to take some patience.

    After a Monday afternoon lull, I’d estimate rain to reintensify Monday evening and it’s going to take some time to turn to snow in Boston and Marshfield. Perhaps til midnight, sooner to the west and northwest. Accumulating snow at coastline perhaps midnight to early Tuesday morning.

  54. This is my favorite phase of storm tracking. The Day 1-2 anticipation and trying to nail it down. I do like snow, but for me the real fun part is just getting opportunities to actually track and forecast potentially big events. Not to say this will be a big event, it certainly won’t be for everyone (although it will for some at least in the interior!) But one of the things that was a little frustrating about last winter was that it was a very repetitive pattern without even much in the way of remote opportunities for heavy snow for most of SNE and the mid-Atlantic. This storm is already making up for that. Complex, long duration, relatively high QPF… fun 🙂

  56. Can I get the update for Roxbury/ Brookline area for snow projections & timing I just got in from the field I have not seen a thing

        1. Yeah I just scrolled down quickly I just got home from working all day & rushed out to get the tree .

  58. I just saw the 18z euro on fb. forms a deformation band over Boston on tuesday. I have a feeling that part will make snow totals overachieve in eastern New England

    1. I saw on ch 5, whatever model they ran, showed the temp at Boston around 37F Monday evening, then drop to the upper 20s by sunrise Tuesday with the snow in eastern Mass.

      I think the Tuesday morning commute inside 128 is going to be more challenging than the Monday morning commute.

      Outside 495, multiple commutes impacted over 2 days.

      1. for sure tom. boy i wonder if this storm would have rivaled the march 1888 storm in some areas if only it was colder

        1. The one I remember with incredible total precip was in the early 1990s, perhaps Dec 1992. Stalled low south of cape cod. …. at least in Lowell, there was 2-3 inches of rain that transitioned to wet snow, which then accumulated 12-15 inches, at probably 10:1 ratio. It was incredible.

          1. It was 1992.

            Dec 11-13.

            On the 11th, Logan totaled 1.38 inches of rain.
            On the 12th, it measured 4.21 inches melted of which 9.2 inches was snow.

            Insane !

            2. I remember that storm well. It was the first time framingham and frankly any school district had multiple days off from school. That was also the year that I’ve mentioned several times that November had some bitterly cold days. Tons of power outages with that storm

  59. Answer to the poorly worded Trivia Quiz.

    What’s the biggest snowstorm ever to start the month of December in Boston?

    A. 6.0 inches
    B. 7.5 inches
    C. 9.5 inches
    D. 11.5 inches

    The answer is A. I can’t think of what year this was.

  61. The reason I’m bullish on this Monday night/Tuesday morning snow is this 500mb feature passing south of us.

    It’s around 531 dm passing through the mid-Atlantic, deepening further as it passes just south of the south coast to btwn 525-528 dm.

    This reminds me of one of the last events during the Feb snow blitz of 2015. The backlash that occurred with that feature was nasty. It’s the famous Jim Cantore 6 thunder snows in Plymouth.

    The backlash on the event was moderately shown and it significantly overachieved. It had snowed a few inches the afternoon before, the blob of snow moved up to the Maine coast, then the 500 mb feature passed by and as it did, it rotated that band back southwestward, intensified it like crazy with thunderstorms that had snowfall rates
    of 3-4 inches per hour.

  62. EBS bulletin just interrupted the TV here in Amsterdam, NY for the WSW for 12-21″ in the Capital District-Saratoga region. Very jealous that I cannot stay here a bit longer!

    I am underwhelmed by our snow chances back in NE CT. I think a few inches on the up front burst and then a quick change to sleet and freezing rain before tapering off to patchy drizzle. I’m not too optimistic about the snow in Part 2 of the storm in CT. I think if that gets itself going, the heavier banding will be more focused on eastern MA, too little too late for us. We’ll see… I’m interested to see if the 0z NAM holds serve.

  63. Had a great day skiing at Gore Mountain today. Good conditions and beautiful bluebird skies. Had nice views right up to Mt Marcy, the High Peaks, and Mt Mansfield in VT.

    Here’s a couple of shots:

    https://imgur.com/kfc9kIe

    https://imgur.com/0rY3aXz

    The second photo is a shot from near the top of the gondola looking north at Mount Marcy and the High Peaks of the ADK’s.

  64. Tom…You are one of the reasons why I continue to read though I do not always participate. Your meteorological knowledge and innate ability to anticipate is nothing short of impressive. That Monday PM mid atmospheric storm features the most potential in terms of producing significant snows over Boston. I’m not as impressed with the Sunday PM potential though I do believe it is capable of producing a few inches of snow especially 5+ miles away from the coast line . I fear that once snow turns to rain Sunday night followed by a relatively wet Monday morning that the public will allow their guard down. It’s not until early Monday evening through Tuesday where things become quite interesting in southern New England, especially Worcester eastward.

    2. Many thanks Arod !! I’ve learned so much here from everyone. It’s like a free meteorology program to take in and process all that is offered from all the bloggers and of course, TK.

      I’m interested to continue to see what the models show through Monday on this 500 mb feature. I completely agree with your concern about the mid part of the storm and people’s reaction to it.

      Either way, it’s fun to be tracking and throwing out thoughts on winter storms.

    1. There was a 6.0″ snowfall on December 2, 1929. I am guessing that’s the answer to Longshot’s quiz. According to NOWData, there was never a 6.0″ (or greater) snowfall on December 1 in Boston.

  68. Unrelated to weather: really excited to see the sunday night game patriots at houston. Brady has only played 22 regular season games in a dome and his numbers go up when he does. Plus they will likely have the fully active WR depth chart. I feel the past three or four games have been with adverse conditions so tomorrow night we will see where the team is really at.

    1. It’s funny, while the crazy amounts north of Boston have decreased a bit, I think the south shore amounts went up. It looked to me like the 500 mb feature projected to track a bit further south than in previous runs and thus, the simulated radar precip for part 3 looked centered a bit further south on radar.

        1. Soooo from the peanut gallery who struggles to understand the most basic…..looks to me as if this brings snow further south at end

          Or no?

            1. No, not at all Vicki. There are different versions of the NAM. The NAM is different from the 3k NAM. I, to a fault, look at the NAM, but it’s important in this case to consider the scenario shown by the 3k NAM which has much less impact on the backside. It’s a possible outcome for sure.

              1. You are kind. Thank you. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for a nice end to the storm but know I will enjoy whatever it brings as much as I’m enjoying seeing the buildup.

  70. This evening after dinner I brought out my shovel, bag of ice melt, pail and scooper as well as put down newspapers on the front hallway floor. I am ready for the season. 🙂

  71. Comparing the new 00z GFS to the previous 12z GFS, the 00z shows a small increase in the backside part of the storm. Where the 12z didn’t have much snow around Boston for part 3, the 00z looks to have perhaps 2-3 inches from the north shore southwestward into boston’s southwest suburbs for part 3.

  74. I see that the NWS has finally changed their tune.

    After the NAM melt down of yesterday with models calming down, they have taken down the Winter storm watch for eastern areas and hoisted a winter weather advisory.

    https://www.weather.gov/box/

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    409 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

    MAZ007-013>016-011715-
    /O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0006.191201T1600Z-191203T1200Z/
    /O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0024.191201T1600Z-191203T1200Z/
    Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
    Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
    Including the cities of Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood,
    Cambridge, Boston, and Quincy
    409 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
    7 AM EST TUESDAY…

    * WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
    3 to 6 inches near the coast, and 7 to 11 inches farther inland.
    Ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch possible. Winds
    gusting as high as 40 mph.

    * WHERE…Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk
    Counties.

    * WHEN…From 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

    * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
    conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Slow down and use caution while traveling.

    &&

    $$

    even so, their numbers are likely still too high.

    I was temporarily more bullish for snow chances yesterday. Now, not so much. oh well, such is life in SNE.

    Of course, will still monitor as one never knows for sure around these parts, but it
    doesn’t look so good for snow as of now.

  75. Winter Storm Warning for my area. Rooting for the 0z EURO and last two GFS runs to pan out for me.
    I had to share this from eweather who posted this on twitter.
    Last 3 NAMs
    What you’re gonna do w/ a drunken sailor?
    What you’re gonna do w/ a drunken sailor?
    What you’re gonna do w/ a drunken sailor?
    Early in the morning!
    Hooray & up she rises
    Hooray & up she rises
    Earl-eye in the morning!
    Put him on a boat until he’s sober

    1. Euor not really way colder.

      I will say, however, that the Euro still projects 925, 850 and 700 mb temperatures to remain BELOW freezing throughout the event. That leaves everything wide open. 🙂

      Ditto the NAM.Almost the GFS, but 925 makes it just barely above freezing up
      to Boston Briefly. 850 remains below, but freezing just about makes it to Boston.

  77. 15 along with a dew point of 8 in Sterling. I would imagine the precip will take a while to get in here given how dry it is.

  78. NWS still has the same snowfall map from yesterday. NO way Boston gets 7”, even with part 2 early Tuesday. Heck, Boston had near zero chance even yesterday.

  80. 20 in JP with dp 12.
    I see a low cloud deck off to the East and SoutEast with a high overcast slowly moving in.

  82. Can someone please explain the following to me.
    Here are 3 maps from the current 11Z HRRR. One depicts precip type, while the
    other 2 are 925mb and 850 mb temperatures. How is that SLEET showing on the precip type map? I checked 700 mb on another site and those temps are sub freezing as well???

    https://imgur.com/a/kQxiC7L

    Either there is a warm layer in between those somewhere OR what I think is sleet
    is MIXED rain and Snow????????

    I going to find a sounding to see if there is a sneaky warm layer in between those heights.

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