Sunday Forecast

111 Comments

8:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)
A very cold start this morning, but little wind makes is more easily tolerable if you have to be out. Just watch for continued icy areas where several melt/freeze cycles have occurred after recent snow. High pressure sinking to the south of the region will start allowing a warm-up to get underway, subtly, today, but you’ll also notice more cloudiness arriving with time as the atmosphere above warms up too. This is leading to a 2-day “warm-spell”, which means many areas get to 50+ and have periodic rain showers. This will take care of the ground ice issue, at least temporarily, and also reduce the snow pack significantly. But if you have any snow or ice to chip away or move, don’t wait until after the 2 wet and mild days because by Wednesday, a strong cold front will have passed and not only will it be much colder again, we may already be dealing with more snowfall due to a wave of low pressure on the front. If this still looks to be the case with tomorrow’s update I will put snowfall numbers to it. It does not look like a grand amount of snow, but could be significant enough for transportation impact. High pressure should supply dry and cold weather Thursday.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Temperatures steady 33-40 evening, rising into the 40s overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers, some of which may be heavy, favoring southeastern MA. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers likely. Temperatures fall through 40s into 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Areas of black ice likely. Temperatures fall into the 20s. Wind NW-N 15-25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Significant areas of black ice likely. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Unsettled weather is expected later December 13 through December 15 with a couple low pressure areas potentially impacting the region. Uncertainty is in place as to the track and exact impact of these storms, and whether it will be dominated by one system or split between a couple, so at this point the best way to word this is just a risk of rain/ice/snow during this period of time and fine-tune going forward. Mostly dry, cold weather follows but a clipper system may bring a snow or snow shower threat by December 17.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)
Dry, cold weather should start the period. Watching December 20-22 window for a possible more widespread precipitation event.

111 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK

    When I glanced at the weather dashboard as I stumbled by half asleep, I thought the 3 was the wind speed. Guess not. It was up a degree from our low of 2 degrees

      1. Not surprised. I know mine is accurate till the sun hits it then it is Two And a couple tenths degrees high. All wanders near me read the same

  3. We got to -5 here. I was thinking 0 or so, but 9 hours of dead calm conditions, snowpack, 1100 foot Mount Norwottuck 2 miles to the south and us sitting down deep in the valley at about 150 feet just set up perfect cooling conditions.

  5. Quiz

    At just under 46″ of precipitation, about how much wetter than average have we been in Boston this year?

    A. 5%
    B. 11%
    C. 18%
    D. 27%

    Answer later today.

    1. Ugh. There are two numbers there are are significant to me so now I have to think about this.

      I’ll say B 11 percent

      Runner up is C

      Thank you, Longshot.

  9. Thank you TK!
    Just barley made the 0-5 club with a low of 5.4
    As far as the quiz goes I’ll say A, for the same reason as Dr.Stupid.

  10. Good morning, everyone, and thank you so much, TK!

    10.4 was the low here in the Silver City. Warming up nicely though!

    We finally made it! Tonight’s sunset is the earliest of the year!
    4:13:13 pm. Tomorrow’s is one second later!

    Thinking of John Lennon, here’s my selection for your Sunday morning brunch in honor of our earliest sunset. (Can’t believe that this song is 50 years ago !!!):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNqsfFUwhY

    Enjoy the day! Go Pats!

    1. Yup, a general 2-4 inches in the Boston area with more well to the West.
      Getting the feeling that 1-3, 2-4 just about does it for this up coming event,
      however, I find the Bernie statement intriguing. 🙂

  13. From NWS re: Tuesday night into Wednesday AM:

    uesday night…

    Cold front sweeps through Southern New England Tuesday evening and
    early night. After it moves through, indications are that it turns
    parallel to the upper flow just as we move under the right entrance
    region of the upper jet. This should keep the front nearby
    overnight and maintain support for precipitation much of the
    night. With colder air moving in aloft, this may mean a
    changeover to snow with potential of a couple of inches. Cross
    sections show the deep column of moisture dries out by 12Z
    Wednesday, suggesting a diminishing chance of snow by sunrise.

  14. Thank you, TK.

    Grateful for the beautiful weekend. Nice to see the sun and feel the cold.

    As for significant snows this month in coastal SNE, count me as a persistent skeptic. It will snow, but it’ll also rain and mix. I think the latter (rain/mix) will be predominant in SNE. The tracks of low pressure areas appear sub-optimal. I’m not just talking about the next 2 days. After the possibility of some back-end snow on Wednesday, the weekend looks more wet than frozen in terms of precipitation. And after that it looks like there will be timing issues, if you will. Cold will certainly be in the vicinity, but the lows may track too far away for any precipitation of significance or the `wrong’ way (for snow). Regardless, it’ll be a very interesting period to watch.

    John Lennon, 1971 in Central Park, Mind Games: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVYXWVs0Prc

    1. Boston is one of very few places who have about the same # for average precipitation and average snowfall in inches, both at about 44.

  17. Thanks TK.

    6F here in Coventry CT this AM. Pales in comparison to that -5 at JMA’s! Wow.

    Nice to see the models coming into agreement on a general accumulating snowfall for the region on Wed AM. I don’t expect much if any snow to be left on the ground by Tuesday PM so will be good to a least whiten things up again for a bit.

    1. I heard that. Sad news. They have not released the cause, only saying it was “sudden and unexpected”.

    1. Weather: Thickening overcast. Light wind from the south. Temperature at kick off about 35. Temperatures at game’s end, about 38.

      Game: Patriots some #, Chiefs some other #. 😉 Maybe 38-35. 😉

    1. The solution will probably end up closer to the NAM’s. The ICON has been sneaky decent at medium range lately, but nobody’s been paying much attention to it. 😉

      By the way, does anybody even look at the 32km NAM anymore? It’s just a waste of “space” in my opinion.

      1. fwiw, I do. I generally look at that and the 3KM NAM. I hardly
        ever look at the 12KM NAM as it almost always looks like
        the 32KM NAM, or so it seems to me. 🙂

        I also often look at the NAM at Instant Weather maps because
        that site always seems to have it available first and I think
        that is the 32KM NAM.

  29. The models all have accumulating snow for Wed. Looking like a 1-3 2-4 deal at this moment but you never know if there will be any surprises.

  32. Well, I got an answer on my F5 Weather site outage: Here is what they now
    have appearing on their website:

    We had a catastrophic server failure this morning and are working to rebuild the system.
    At this stage the hardware has been installed and operating system installed.
    We are currently working to install the required applications and restore our backups to get the site fully functional again.

    We are upgrading the system with a Raid 1 array to combat this issue from happening in the future.
    Subscribers will be given 2x the amount of downtime added on to their subscription term for the inconvenience.

    I greatly appreciate your patience during this outage and as with everything we do,
    we will learn from this and work to build you a better functioning more reliable service for the future.

  35. MAYBE the answer to today’s quiz.

    At just under 46″ of precipitation, about how much wetter than average have we been in Boston this year?

    A. 5%
    B. 11%
    C. 18%
    D. 27%

    The correct answer is B MAYBE. I think when the answer was shown, it was shown as A but then it was corrected, in real time, to B. For those who selected B, I’ll say you are correct and there will be no recall.

    1. Well I’m going with B…..but then my 41st anniversary with my number 11 is tomorrow sooooooo sometimes angels make changes we don’t expect

  36. Between the Patriots and Bruins, I’ll never make it through the year. They are both driving me crazy.

    1. How are the Bruins driving you crazy? They are 2nd best in the NHL, and have only lost one game at home in regulation. It doesn’t really get any better than that.

      And yeah the Pats have been shaky but their record is pretty darn good, about on par with last year. 🙂

  37. Shameful `refereeing.’ Moronic crew. Seriously. First, way too many flags. Second, whistles before you need to whistle costing the Patriots. Third, an obvious touchdown not ruled a touchdown with a referee standing two feet from Harry. You have to be blind not to see that his feet were always in bounds. Then, there are the incomprehensible football rules that make NO sense. There is no official review of Harry’s touchdown. Why? Because the referee didn’t say he scored a touchdown. Talk about circular reasoning. If there’s a moment when there MUST be a review it’s on those kinds of plays. I’m incensed.

  38. Shameful `refereeing.’ Moronic crew. Seriously. First, way too many flags. Second, whistles before you need to whistle costing the Patriots. Third, an obvious touchdown not ruled a touchdown with a referee standing two feet from Harry. You have to be blind not to see that his feet were always in bounds. Then, there are the incomprehensible football rules that make NO sense. No official review of Harry’s touchdown. Why? Because the referee didn’t say he scored a touchdown. Talk about circular reasoning. If there’s a moment when there MUST be a review it’s on those kinds of plays. I’m incensed.

  40. I’m with you TK. I hardly complain either about refs. But, once again an obvious call (pass interference) was not made. Is there money to be had for this refereeing crew? I mean seriously.

  41. The refs were terrible tonight but it’s blatantly clear KC was the better team. Pats are running out of time to figure it out…

  42. I’m proud of the Pats. They have fight and resiliency in them.

    Cincy’s playing a bit better. Pats need a win next week.

  43. 18z GFS seems to have 2-3 inches for Boston.

    With a much different synoptic set-up, looking at another long, drawn out multi day precip event.

    1. Yes, quite a nice overrunning event. Not much of a low, so wind won’t be strong off the ocean near the coast. Coming in hard between 7 and 10am.

        1. The offense wasn’t really that bad last night, and they did essentially get 14 points taken from them.

          12-4

  47. I don’t see them going 10-6. I think at worst they will be 12-4 with that loss coming to Buffalo. They will beat the Bengals and Dolphins. Now something to keep an eye on if the Chiefs and Patriots have the same record at the end of the season the Patriots will be playing wild card weekend and have to win three games to get to the Super Bowl.

Comments are closed.