Thursday Forecast

44 Comments

6:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Departing low pressure via eastern Canada and high pressure pressing slowly southeastward from central Canada means a cold, windy day for southeastern New England today. Cold will continue through Friday with a little less wind as the pressure gradient loosens up somewhat. The upcoming weather pattern will find us between split jet streams, quite far apart – the polar jet stream near the US / Canada border while the subtropical jet stream is located near the Gulf Coast, the latter having no influence on the weather here, while the former will bring a brief shot at snow showers as it carries a weak disturbance across the region Saturday night. It will then send a cold front toward the region later Monday but with little fanfare as the pattern will be on the quiet side as we count the days down toward Christmas.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0 at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 9-16. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-5 interior valleys, 5-10 elsewhere except 10-15 urban centers. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible. Lows 20-27. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 34-41. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)
High pressure moves down from Canada with fair and seasonable weather December 24. A low pressure area approaches from the west and brings the risk of light snow/mix for December 25 and lingering snow showers into early December 26 as systems will be moving even more quickly than previously expected and this low should pass just south of the region. Beyond this high pressure approaches from the west with dry and chilly weather.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
Next risk of precipitation comes in the December 29-30 window before fair weather arrives for the transition from 2019 to 2020, along with a trend toward colder weather.

44 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Warning: GFS seems to be in trash mode. My theory is the struggle is coming from split jet streams with significant separation. We’re really in the first full winter of this new version, so it’s going to be hard to know for sure.

  6. Thanks TK. Looking at the realfeel this is good ol fashioned tshirt and shorts weather. Meet everyone at the beach!

    1. I’ve been hearing AccuWeather forecasts lately that mention ONLY “Real Feel” and not actual temperatures. I don’t agree with that one bit. But, it’s not my call. 🙂

      BTW, I’m going to the beach Saturday morning to greet the solstice sunrise. 🙂

        1. Interesting, the difference in time for the solstice from the Julian Calendar (Solstice would have been last Friday, December 13) and the Gregorian Calendar.

      2. Real feel seems to mean wind chill most times I’ve observed it. I use it to gauge if the locks on my doors are going to be sticking lol

  9. Just a guess on my part, we might be going into a dry pattern going into spring with dry ground. Could that be a sign above normal temps because of less evaporation of wet ground? Any thoughts?

    1. I would say, as a general rule, that if you go into April with dry ground conditions, that temps would overperform what they should reach. Strong April sun + no leaves is usually a recipe for max energy into heating.

  11. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Prospects for a White Christmas appear rather bleak at the moment.

    Euro calls for light to moderate event Christmas night, which would be a day late and a dollar short. Go figure.

      1. Even though Madison Avenue (ads) and Hollywood (movies) say otherwise, it’s very difficult if not near impossible for a White Christmas around here. What can one do with a lousy 1 in 4 chance? 🙁

        If we could only keep it cold ‘til Christmas Day. Darn SE ridge I bet.

  12. Deep snow, moderate snow, thin snow, patchy snow, or bare ground.

    To me it’s never mattered. Christmas has always felt the same to me, and not just the day. The season. The magic.

    1. As a kid, absolutely YES!!!
      As an adult with young children, a resounding YES.
      As an adult with grown children, NO!!! I Hate Christmas!

      1. Please explain that last statement JPD. I would think once the children are on their own you would love Christmas most of all!

        Of course Christmas is my favorite holiday regardless.

  15. Did I hear TK say the GFS was in trash mode? Today’s 12z run looks nothing like the previous run in the medium to long range. Today it is a bit closer to the Euro and CMC which have a colder look as we get towards the last several days of 2019. Not sure if it is struggling with the blocking in the Atlantic, the split flow or what, but it is seemingly a totally different solution every run.

    The models do seem to be coming together on the chance for a light snow/mix event around the 26th but doesn’t look like it will be here in time for Xmas. The additional opportunities perhaps a few days before and a few days after New Years.

    Checking teleconnections…..appears they get more favorable as we get towards New Years.

    PNA going positive
    NAO negative
    AO negative

    MJO still a wildcard as it may remain neutral through the New Year if the Euro is correct while the GFS has it neutral then heading towards Phase 6 which I would be skeptical of given its lousy performance right now.

    1. Did Logan manage something from the Arctic front yesterday?? I personally only saw a few fleeting flakes.

      Whatever, JPD’s chart will take it certainly. 🙂

  20. Great game. The Bruins always seem to give the Islanders fits but they really had it going tonight. Varlamov probably had his best overall game and best save of the season for the Islanders.

    Two more games between these teams later in the season in NY…should be good ones!

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