Saturday Forecast

60 Comments

5:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 21-25)
Today we say goodbye to autumn and hello to winter, by astronomical definition, although not until after 11PM tonight when the solstice occurs. But we have seen our share of wintry weather in the final days of autumn this December, with below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall. But as winter arrives, we’ll be having a break in what was quite the active weather pattern. It’s not to say there won’t be “weather events”. There are always weather events. Weather is 24/7. But if you are looking for major storminess to impact the region, that won’t be happening for the next 5 days (at least). High pressure dominates the weekend weather and a weak disturbance I was eyeing for a possible delivery of meaningless light snow tonight will keep its feeble precipitation north of the region. After a temperature moderation through Monday, a cold front will drop through the region from north to south Monday night and bring slightly colder air back during Christmas Eve. A weak low pressure area approaching from the west will bring cloudiness for Christmas Day and possibly enough moisture to squeeze a few snowflakes out of the atmosphere. We won’t have a genuine white Christmas for much of the region this year, with just patchy snow cover left by then, although some areas in north central MA and southwestern NH will hold onto their slightly more substantial snow cover, though it will be a crusty type due to melt/freeze cycles, rather than a fresh one. That’s the way it goes here. Some years you have it, many you don’t.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow (mix far south). Highs 32-39. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 26-30)
Colder weather December 26-27 with a clipper system possibly bringing light snow or snow showers most likely early December 27. Next precipitation threat comes later December 29 into December 30.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
Uncertainty in this period with a huge spread in medium range guidance. At this point like the idea of storminess passing to the south early in the period and perhaps a rain/snow event around late January 1 to early January 2, then a fair/cold end to the period.

60 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!

    TK – Does that idea of storminess passing to our south mean…

    WELL south or “just right”?

    1. Well if I have it impacting the region, it’s definitely not “well south”. And I can’t tell “just right” this many days in advance.

  6. Thanks TK!

    As you said, weather is 24/7. Just as we can sometimes “lock in” a stormy pattern, we can also lock in high pressure. Not such a bad thing for those traveling this week. We’ll have plenty more excitement in the months ahead, but for now time to sit back and enjoy a week or two of quiet 🙂

    1. I suppose, but I for one do NOT like like quite stretches of weather in the Winter. In Spring and Summer it fits the bill, but Winters are dull without the action.

      Gimmie some action!

  7. Thanks TK
    I am happy for the quiet stretch of weather coming for Christmas. As much as I love snow I don’t want it to prevent families from getting together for the holiday. After Christmas bring back the snow.

    2. I’ll never forget the Xmas two years ago with the storm left the house at 3am thinking maybe back noontime but that never happened as I got back home at like 8:30 .

      1. 8 inches fell in that one here. Will never forget the thundersnow.

        Nothing like that this year. Maybe a few flakes.

  11. Trivia Quiz.

    Today marks the winter solstice, the start of winter. What is the warmest temperature Boston has ever recorded to start the winter season?
    A. 55
    B. 65
    C. 67
    D. 40

    Answer later today after the P’s & B’s games.

    1. Also the fact that the earths orbit is closer to the sun I only can imagine how much colder we would be if our winter was also further away from the sun

  14. Thank you, TK.

    My mother passed away. Thankfully, her mind was working well until the end. In fact, she was keenly aware of what was going on, also weather-wise. I share with you this brief story of a conversation (effectively the last one) my mother had a week ago with my niece, Rachel. She said, “Grandma, let’s go snowshoeing.” My mother responded by saying, “Rachel, there’s one problem. There’s no snow. It all melted.” She was right. There’s snow in Norwich, Vermont right now. And, there was snow in Norwich, Vermont 10 days ago. But, the rains and mild weather melted it all away. Of course, when my mother said “there’s one problem” everyone expected her to say “I’m incapacitated.” Instead, she mentioned the weather. Does anyone at WHW wonder where I got the weather bug from? Double whammy – both my father and mother.

    5. I’m very sorry for your loss. I know you knew it was happening soon but that doesn’t make losing a loved one any easier. I am glad that you did get to spend some time with her and I hope you will carry many wonderful memories with you. I keep my dad close to me that way.

  15. Ch. 5 now has a “5 + 5” day forecast.

    It’s a 10-day forecast basically. Let us hope more of the tv stations climb aboard. 🙂

    1. * I started this post prior to my knowledge of Joshua’s post regarding the loss of his mother. Had I seen it earlier, I never would have posted the above. Sorry.

      2. No need to worry Philip. I am sure his mother would want us to continue talking about what brings us all here. Joshua knows we are here for him and supporting him in this difficult time.

    2. You never know who planted that idea in Channel 5s mind. I will now always think fondly of Joshuas mom and Joshua every time I see it.

  16. Joshua, my deepest sympathy. Thanks for sharing the beautiful story about your mom.
    My prayers to you and your family.

  18. As far as Ch 5’s 5+5 goes. It’s a cute idea. I don’t think Harvey will like it too much though. He isn’t a fan of a 7-day. He’s said that a 5-day is pushing it. But that’s what’s trending on TV these days. 😉 I don’t have an issue with it personally but I hope that the broadcasters remind the viewers about the lower confidence as we get further out in time.

    1. I have the sense none of them like it. I know of two who definitely don’t. I also hear the major station Mets stress that you can’t count on anything that far out. Now if management would only get a clue

  20. I’m very sorry to hear about your mother Joshua. My thoughts and prayers are with you this holiday season.

  22. CFS is dry much of the rest of the winter. Temperature relax this coming week, get cold early January and may thaw somewhere mid January before going cold again.

    CFS is also on the drier side of average through much of 2020 with nothing out of control for overall temps.

  23. Joshua – Eternal peace to your mother and may your family and friends give you comfort as you move forward.

  24. I tend to think the CFS trend has merit. I have believed for a while the 1st half of December was key to our snowfall total and at the moment I feel even stronger about that sentiment.

    If it is drier than normal on the prolonged average,the CFS could be a bit a cool in the long term.

    FYI – it will snow again this winter ….ha!!

  25. Re channel 5 doing a 5+5 (haven’t seen it yet) – TV stations have to compete against apps. So they have to change the way they operate. Weather apps do a 10 day. It’s obviously basically rip and reads of particular forecast models… But people never pay attention to how wrong the long range can be. The average viewer or app user has the memory of a fish so they will at most hold their apps or tv meteorologists feet to a fire if the forecast within three days is wrong.

    1. I have a FB friend who posts all the time things like: “And who’s ready for another foot of snow on (whatever day)” …which is like 4 or 5 days out.

      Or things like: (Posted at 6AM) “I’m happy that the rain will be ending at 4:45 this afternoon so I can go out and do errands”.

      I’ve explained to this person (and others) about apps and their ability to misinform and mislead, but it isn’t sinking in with most people. They just see it the next day and buy it again. I find myself explaining this less and less often lately. A lot of them default right to blaming people like me (the forecasters) for bad information they receive on apps. It’s not even worth the battle anymore. 😉

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