Tuesday Forecast

85 Comments

7:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
The final day of 2019 has arrived. And as we prepare for the departure of the year, we will see the departure of a messy storm today, as low pressure exits via the Gulf of Maine, precipitation that has become mainly rain across the area after yesterday’s messy mix will exit by late morning, and a drier westerly wind will take over during this afternoon, ushering in 2020 on a drier note tonight and Wednesday. Thursday will be a nice day as high pressure moves across the region, and then we quickly go downhill seeing our first unsettled weather of the New Year by Friday with a warm front crossing the region, and additional unsettled weather Saturday as a cold front approaches. However, this next round of unsettled weather will be only in the form of rain and rain showers as it will be fairly mild.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog through mid morning with rain ending south to north. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny midday and afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Partly cloudy. Patchy black ice overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Partly sunny. Patchy black ice early. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32 evening then temperatures slowly rising. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)
Drier, colder weather returns January 5-6. Next low pressure system likely travels through Great Lakes with unsettled weather favoring mix to rain / rain showers, during the January 7-8 period before windy and colder weather arrives behind this system at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)
More west to east flow and quick changes, with a fair and cold start to the period then unsettled weather and moderating temperatures mid to late period (too early to really get an idea of precipitation types for a system that far into the future).

85 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    JPD – Logan received a Trace of snow (sleet) yesterday. I don’t know if you include trace amounts in your chart but that’s what they got. Did you get measurable amounts of sleet more worthy of adding to your chart?

    1. A trace amount won’t change the total but sleet (and hail, for the record) are both recorded in the “snow” column in official climate records.

    2. Thank you Philip.

      I got 0.2 inches of sleet yesterday in 2 bursts of sleet 0.1 inch each, one morning to Noonish and the other last evening. The problem with accumulation was, well, sleet plus it was too warm. Most of the sleet was at 35 and 36 degrees.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Happy New Year to all at WHW!

    Still can’t be outside for prolonged periods of time as the viral bronchitis/sinusitis lingers (no more fever, and cough is subsiding a bit). But, my usual morning runs have been tabled for now.

  6. Thank you, TK…Hope you’re feeling better real soon, Joshua!
    Thunder sleet!!! Love it! 🙂

    A Happy and Peaceful 2020 to us all!

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Interesting day yesterday.

    Looking down the road, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAHDITY BLAH BLAH!!!

  8. Some final thoughts on the Pats game Sunday.
    There may be many, perhaps all, here that would vehemently disagree with me, but
    I believe the FIX was on.

    My wife and I had a long conversation about this.

    There is no way the PATS are/were that bad. No way. Something was clearly WRONG!!! Not only that, there was complacency on the sidelines with coaching staff and players. Even after the game, BB was acting eerily strange almost like the loss
    was expected. Take it anyway you like, but that is how I see it.

    If you are naive enough to think that there is no such thing, then I would say
    stop burying your head in the sand. It does exist.

    I am sure crap loads of money was at stake Sunday.

    My prediction: The Pats go to the Superbowl as payback for tanking Sunday.

    Ok, rant over. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

    1. It doesn’t matter if anyone agrees or disagrees you have a right to your opinion . I do not think it was fixed I just think the patriots have that many issues this year ( mostly offense ) that they need help . The big reason they have the record they have this year is because the defense has carried the offense all season long with the exception of week # 1. The defense has been the back bone of this team & along with special teams . If the defense struggles like they did against Miami or anyone else your screwed . So going into the playoffs anything can happen but realistically do we think the pats can win out in both KC & Baltimore back to back huge road games I just think Baltimore is unstoppable & they should enjoy it because Jackson cannot keep playing that style or he is going to be crippled. I think a big change with the pats is coming I think Josh is gone & maybe some big names on defense. Brady wants to get paid more ( he’s done the home discount ) & wants more than one year . If you don’t think he will walk think again & if you think Bill would stop him think again . I think Bill has more years left it’s in his blood this is his life & wants to keep doing this and I think he would love to win a super bowl some day with a new QB.

      1. Tennessee will not be a walk in the park they have a very good QB that’s been giving a shot & he has delivered he reminds me of Brady a lot

        1. I will predict that the Patriots offense (and defense) will shine one last time for its loyal fans on Saturday night. They will have no more left in KC though. Game will be a total massacre. Dynasty will be done! Oh well.

        2. I believe they win Saturday and they BEAT KC the next weekend. Baltimore is my concern, but you know what,
          They CAN do it. I think they have it in them. Will be fun to watch whichever way it turns.

          1. I also believe they win Saturday & I do think they can beat KC but I’ll eat these words if I’m wrong Baltimore is unstoppable right now & is going all the way I don’t care who they play . Jackson is a one man wrecking ball

            1. I still believe they win on Saturday BUT not nearly as easily as I thought earlier. The upcoming rain event is now delayed until late Friday which means POURING RAIN all day Saturday into the night (and even until Sunday morning).

              If only this was snow…a cakewalk! Oh well. And I still feel the same about KC. The fish squished everything out of them as it is, unfortunately. Only their second (and last) wind will carry them Saturday.

  9. Thanks TK. I look forward to hearing your weather predictions for 2020 tomorrow.
    It has been a great decade here with this great blog and talking weather. I look forward to more of that next decade.
    What are all of your most memorable weather moments of this decade??? I look forward to reading what you all think. Here are mine.
    Post Christmas Blizzard 2010. This storm kicked off a six week snow blitz which last through February and led to the 2nd snowiest winter on record for BDL with 85.6 inches and the snowiest January on record with 54.3 inches of snow. As a result of all that snow and very little melting roof collapses were happening and snow rakes became a big ticket item at hardware stores.
    The EF 3 Springfield Tornado June 1, 2011. The morning hours had a round of showers and thunderstorms with the warm front. The sun came out and really destabilized the atmosphere. CAPE Values, Lift Index Values, and Helicity Values were high for New England and the stage was set for a severe weather event. This was the first tornado I saw on live television in New England.
    Tropical Storm Irene in late August 2011
    The October Nor’easter October 29, 2011 which caused the greatest amount of power outages in CT history and led to the biggest October snowfall at BDL with 12.3 inches of snow.
    Superstorm Sandy October 29, 2012
    Blizzard of 2013 February 8th-9th. There were some places that received 6 inches of snow in one hour. It was the most snow from one storm I have seen in my life with 30 inches of snow where I am. I will never forget the 8 foot snow bank at the end of my mom and stepdads driveway and seeing people snow blow their streets just to be able to get out
    Boston Snow Blitz late January 2015 which last until early March and resulted in the snowiest winter on record for Boston. I remember TK saying a window for snow would be open from January 24th – March 8th and he was right.
    Overnight Severe Weather Outbreak in February 2016 where there were a lot of wind damage reports across SNE. The lights flickered in my home but I did not lost power.
    Late October 2017 the wind storm event which caused a lot of power outages in SNE.
    May 15, 2018 where 4 Tornadoes happened in CT that day including a MacRoburst in Brookfield. This was the most widespread damage for a severe weather event in CT since the Northeastern Tornado Outbreak of July 10, 1989.

  10. The end of the year and decade are filled with lists. The Top (fill in the blank here) of 2019 and the 2010s. I have been thinking about the important weather events of my life and area in the last decade, wrote them down, researched them a bit and I offer them to you here. They are in no particular order, except for Number One:

    Record rains, flooding and damage (16.83″), March, 2010; Springfield tornado, 2011; Cape Cod tornadoes, 2019; Hurricane Irene, 2011; Superstorm/Hurricane Sandy, 2012; Destructive windstorms: October 29, 2017 and March 2, 2018; 48-week drought from June, 2016-May, 2017, with 52% of Massachusetts in Extreme Drought on September 13, 2016.

    The drought was followed by 70.90″ of precipitation in 2018, the most ever recorded in Taunton.

    Temperature extremes: 103 on July 22, 2011 (the second highest temperature ever recorded in Taunton); -11 on February 14, 2016.

    Number One: The record-breaking snowfall in the Winter, 2014-15. 108.6″ in Boston, most of it falling in less than four-week period starting on January 24. The snowfall was followed by very cold stretches that caused the wood frame in my home to bang and boom. Remember that?

    I’d love to hear your thoughts on the list. What did I miss?

    Happy New Year, WHW!

    2. What about the SNOW BLITZ of a few years ago (2015?) where boston had a record 110 inches for the year. Seems pretty memorable to me. 🙂

        1. Sorry, I read your post, but did not see it.
          I have a very bad habit of doing this. I don’t think I
          am wired correctly. 🙂

  11. I enjoyed reading your list Captain and I would love to read what other people here on the blog think are the biggest weather events of this past decade. Tomorrow I look forward to reading your weather predictions are for 2020.

  12. Mark,

    Do you have any frozen precip accumulation to report for yesterday?
    I would like to update the spreadsheet, if you still want me to include
    Coventry.

    Thanks

  13. This HRRR loop depicts the Snow squalls in NY state that TK mentioned the other day.
    They appear to make it to the Berkshires and then mostly go poof, although some
    showers/snow showers make it to the coast around 1AM tomorrow morning.

    https://imgur.com/a/lLjlVQm

  14. Events that were not mentioned were the snowstorms in March 2018 and 2019. I believe both set records for their perspective dates at Logan and the latter occurred at temps of 35-36F which I thought was amazing with no mixing whatsoever.

  15. Philip I forgot about those March Nor’easters in 2018. I also remembered eastern parts of SNE in March 2013 getting close to a foot of snow from a storm 600 miles offshore.

      1. Sort of, maybe.
        What I do remember was the we had an elongated
        500 MB feature and also at 700 mb and 850 mb that
        provided a very long Easterly fetch of moist air from the
        Atlantic. This feature was also providing lift, thus the snow because it was cold enough.

        Perhaps TK or others could elaborate??

  16. Thanks TK!

    I think you guys have nailed it with the top SNE weather events of the 2010s! The 2015 snow blitz takes the cake for me. We may not see another event like that in our lives.

    We’ve had a lot of great snowstorms this decade. The only one not mentioned by CF or JJ that immediately comes to my mind is January 4, 2018. That storm produced the highest water levels on record at the Boston Harbor tide gauge. While it was a high impact storm, I also look at it as a dodged bullet thanks to its fast forward speed. Had that storm stalled offshore, catastrophic coastal flooding would have occurred, not to mention additional snow and wind impacts.

    Other footnotes for the decade…

    *The Revere, MA tornado in 2014
    *The “tornado blitz” of 2018
    *From a tropical weather perspective, the 2010s will be remembered as a second consecutive decade without a truly high impact storm for most of coastal and eastern SNE. Ironically, both the mid-Atlantic (Sandy) and interior SNE and central/northern New England (Irene) experienced tropical events producing widespread significant damage, but not coastal SNE.
    *On the technology side of things, the launch of the GOES-16 and 17 satellites and the full implementation of dual polarization radar have revolutionized our observing capabilities.
    *And of course, on the climate side, the 2010s were noteworthy for the continued signs of climate change in our region. This is most notable in the form of the continued and ever growing prevalence of warm weather versus cold weather in both means and extremes, and the continued frequency increase of “sunny day floods” along our coastline.

    All in all, IMO it was a great decade for us weather geeks. I certainly feel lucky to have had most of my formal training in meteorology occur during such an exciting decade of weather and with ever improving technology. On to the 2020s we go!

    1. With the MJO as it is (I have no clue what it is) it will be interesting if the 2019-20 winter will have any memorable snow events. Perhaps a “forgettable” 2020 if anything? One of the quietest?? 🙁

  17. GREAT lists JimmyJames and Captain and wonderful additions from others.

    I think you captured the big ones….there were many for sure.

    Personally, The December 9, 2017, snow where we had six inches is a huge highlight. On the 39th anniversary to the day of the one Mac and I had on our wedding night.

    Also, the September 4, 2018, tornado that went through Auburn and part of Sutton but thankfully missed us. We all sat in our basements. We didn’t have a television but JPD and others guided us from WHW. Who needs television when you have such amazing friends.

  18. WxWatcher I had forgotten about the January 4, 2018 storm. Thank you for reminding us. I remember the media calling it a Bomb Cyclone.
    I’m curious what TK would list as his most memorable weather events from this decade. Hopefully he will share his later.

  19. 2011-12 = 9.3” (2nd lowest snowfall total for Logan). There was also Halloween snow as well that postponed trick-or-treat especially interior locations. A most painful winter for snow lovers like most of us here.

    Most snow for October at Logan? = 1.0”

    1936-37 = 9.0” (#1 least snowfall at Logan)

  20. Thank you TK!
    All of the posts with weather events that have occurred in this past decade are spot on. Impactful as all of those events were the one that ranks #1 for me personally is the June 1st 2011 tornado, which touched down in Springfield and dissipated in Southbridge, the next town over from me. The tornado achieve EF4 status and left a wide swath of destruction including three fatalities. Fortunately for me it missed my house by 800 feet. There was a bunch of debris deposited in the woods behind my house including some paper documents I found that were from Brimfield approx 20 miles from me. Weather is such an interesting phenomenon that has always intrigued me, and I can’t wait to see what the next decade brings us.
    TK thank you very much for this blog, being able to share my passion for weather with others is simply invaluable!!
    My most sincere wishes to everyone on the WHW blog for a HAPPY and HEALTHY 2020!!

  21. South Central that tornado you mentioned was on the ground for I believe close to 40 miles which is rare here in New England. The atmosphere was primed that day for a severe weather event with high amounts of instability in CAPE Values, Lift Index Values, and Helicity Values. There was also an elevated mixed layer present that day as well.

  22. JJ you are correct the atmosphere was primed for tornado development, if I’m not mistaken there were multiple other funnels that day and I think 2 other smaller short track tornadoes that day. I would have to go back and do some research on that. Unfortunately I never saw the actual funnel but I did see the debris in the air and distinctly remember the strong inflow into the storm and that the air was extremely cooled.

  23. Go back to earlier that day there was a warm front that came through with showers and storms that morning. Once that warm front passed we were warm sectored and the sun came out only adding to destabilize the atmosphere further. All that was needed was a trigger and the cold front was the trigger and came through during peak heating. Shortly before 1pm that day a large chunk of SNE was placed under a tornado watch.

    1. These forecasts all look like late MARCH and NOT freakin January.
      )(!*@&#*&!@*()#$&(*!@^$&^!$&()^!&)@*(^$*(^)!(*@$^(*)!^@*$

  26. JPDave and all… That March 2013 event was largely due to the upper level pattern, so having a surface low 600 miles offshore mattered very little. There was a perfect moisture fetch and plenty of cold all the while. It’s rare to have something quite that established for that long. But we have seen it, so it’s certainly not unprecedented.

    I’d like to acknowledge all the great posts today and I have read them all! But a special shout-out goes to WxW because I’ve watched you go from young weather enthusiast to still young but impressive professional. You have a gift and you’re learning to use it wisely. Importantly, as you know, accepting the misses and learning from them is just as important as “getting it right”. We’ll never do that all the time. And then there will be those times you feel confident about something and just don’t fully communicate it. I had one of those moments yesterday. This is an excerpt from a conversation with a colleague I had in private chat yesterday morning: “So I’m wondering if when that energy punch comes across CT MA & RI this evening we don’t see elevated convection and even thundersleet. I hesitate to put it on my blog or Facebook because people might think I’m nuts for forecasting it. You know that means it will happen. 😛 ”

    …I’m still kicking myself, but I did get a really cool time-lapse video of sleet covering my windshield during which I caught a flash of lightning. So that was cool. 😉

    1. Thanks TK! That means a lot. I’m definitely looking forward to working on what you talked about over this next decade. I know we all appreciate the work you put into the blog here!

      I feel your pain from yesterday, it’s kinda like mentioning snow in late April or tornadoes in February. Yes, they can happen but it takes a rare setup and if you call for it and it doesn’t happen, you look a little out there 😉

      1. TK…Truer words were never said. WxWeather it has been one of my great honors to have watched your progress.

  27. JPD I didn’t see your post on the Pats until now. Someone on here said they looked beaten from the start. May have been you. I was going to reply that I think there is more to it, but did something uncharacteristic for me. Kept my thoughts to myself.

    I absolutely believe there is more to it than what we saw. Mrs OS and I VERY often think alike on these matters. And we do on this one.

    Also please wish Mrs OS a very happy new year.

  28. Cloud ceiling is about 1,000 ft, that’s what my screen said when we made it below the last deck of clouds. Looks lovely as always, locally 🙂 🙂

    Happy New Year ! We are in the far back of the plane, it may be close to the midnight hour before we get off 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  29. First off, Happy New Year to everyone and their families. This was a tough one, as you all know for me, my Grandpa who I was extremely close passed peacefully around 7 this morning. He was surrounded by his family when he went. We got a call yesterday morning at 4am saying he could go any minute. He was with us till this morning. He was married to my Grammie for 60 years which they celebrated earlier this year, he leaves behind 5 kids, and 9 grand children and an entire town that knows him. From playing in the snow, riding my bike, pretzel holds (IE wrestling when I was much younger), discussing science, teaching me about gardening/plants and playing cards. Saving the picnic tables at the lake for birthday parties. Watching us crazy people sleep over from the couch and much much more. He was one of the few people that said I would make it, he believed I could succeed from the beginning when many did not. He had a great last X-Mas as I have said before. Heaven received a great man this morning.

    3. Matt, what nice memories to share about your grandfather. How wonderful to have had someone in your life like him, someone who really believed in you. Every one of us needs that. So sorry that you lost him today.

    4. Matt really there are no words. I do know there is a very special star in the sky tonight. Love and hugs to you and your entire family.

    6. Matt, I’m very sorry to hear. Sounds like your grandfather was a great man. My condolences to you and your family.

  30. Looking back at my earlier post I have to correct myself, the 6/1/11 tornado was rated an EF 3 not an EF4 my mistake.

  32. Bruins lose yet another shootout.

    If there are shootouts come playoff time, Bruins will be making a very early exit.

  33. Philip no shootouts when the playoffs come. Its five on five overtime hockey and which ever teams scores first wins.

  34. EBS activated here in Amsterdam, NY for a snow squall warning. Impressive squall line about to move in.

    Interestingly, it is not all that cold here right now (about 33) and there is dense ground fog with the light snow cover from last night. Kind of an unusual environment prior to a snow squall.

  35. Dave, regarding your question from earlier, I am still not back home from Upstate NY (we are leaving here tomorrow AM) but a friend back in Coventry said we got a coating (about an 1/8 to a 1/4″) from the thunder sleet storm yesterday, So its not my “official” measurement but best we have to go by 🙂

  38. Extraordinarily foggy New Year’s Eve in the Netherlands. They issued a “code red” which is the strongest warning for drivers. I’m translating the message attached to the code red: “Very dense fog, with visibility down to 10 meters [~ yards].”

    I’ve experienced that in Holland, and it’s truly incredible fog, and very hazardous to drive in. In fact, you’re basically ordered not to drive at all in these conditions. I’ve never experienced fog like that in the U.S.

  39. Thursday night. ABC at 8:00 Alex Trebek and his wife sit down for an interview. I know we have several jeopardy fans here

  40. I am going to DVR that.
    Beginning Next Tuesday 8pm prime time Jeopardy on ABC in a competition of the three greatest Jeopardy Champions of all time Ken Jennings Brad Rutter and James Holzhauer. Which ever player wins two games wins one million dollars. Brad Rutter is my pick to win it. He has not lost to a human being on Jeopardy. When he had his run you can only win five games. His only loss to IBM computer Watson.

Comments are closed.