Wednesday Forecast

63 Comments

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)
Low level moisture will cause patches of clouds and fog early today, but a bubble of high pressure approaching brings drier air and turns the weather quite nice, making today the pick of the week if you seek mild and fair conditions. If you do, enjoy it while you can, because things are about to change in a significant way. Low pressure cuts across central New England tonight and early Thursday, producing a some snow and rain showers (snow showers with minor accumulation southern NH and perhaps far northern MA, rain showers to the south). This will be a minor system, but as it exits, it intensifies while moving away, and will be a cog in a machine that will transport much colder air into the region Thursday night through Friday, as a large high pressure area moves across southeastern Canada. But our active pattern sends another low pressure area in our direction for the weekend, and with cold air in place, this one is going to start as snow for all by late Saturday or Saturday night. The big question with this system is how much warm air moves in aloft, and how quickly, dictating a change to rain. There’s still some uncertainty how quickly and how far north this snow to rain line will end up. At just over 3 days away, the initial call is that light to moderate snowfall accumulations will occur and rain will become involved in most of the region before the precipitation exits around dawn Sunday. This system will move quickly enough to prevent heavy snow accumulation and significant rainfall. Cold air does return as that system exits, so whatever is on the ground is destined to freeze up solid by the end of the weekend…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Patchy clouds/fog early otherwise sunshine dominant. Highs 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH then W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouds return. Snow/mix showers southern NH and far northern MA with scattered coatings of snow. Rain showers to the south. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers morning. Variably cloudy with isolated snow showers afternoon. Highs 40-47 morning. Temperature falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH. Wind chill falling into the 20s.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 30-45 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 mph, gusting over 30 MPH at times. Wind chill often below 10.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH at times. Wind chill often below 0.
SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving evening. Snow turning to rain South Coast to I-90 belt and mixing with sleet/rain to the north overnight. Light to moderate snow accumulation possible. Temperature rising into the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH evening, SE 10-20 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle, areas of fog, and a risk of rain showers early. Variably cloudy with isolated to scattered snow showers afternoon. Highs 38-45 morning. Temperatures falling through the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)
Dry, windy, and very cold January 20. Dry, less wind, very cold January 21. Watching potential ocean storm in the January 22-24 period which should be mostly offshore but may bring the risk of some snow to southeastern areas as temperatures remain below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)
Continued colder than average late January with mainly dry weather January 25-26 weekend and a potential storm threat following that.

63 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Coating to 1/2 inch of snow may occur near and north of the MA/NH border tonight.

    Very very early call on Saturday night: 1-3 inches south of I-90, 3-6 inches I-90 northward.

    1. 8, 1, 2.

      But those are the favored ones. It can snow in any phase of the setup is correct.

  6. Thanks, TK…Good morning, y’all…

    When I was on college radio (91 Rock, WRVU~Nashville), we used to say “It’s difficult running at 33 1/3 rpm when the rest of the world is running at 45 rpm.”

    Boy, time is going by so fast! It’s Wednesday already, almost halfway through January and Christmas morning was three weeks ago today!!!

    2. They have rock in Nashville? Isn’t that the Country Capital of the word?
      I loved the old 45s.

      remember this?

        1. We called ourselves “Nashville’s Rock Alternative” which was really stupid because we played rock during the week.
          It was really eclectic on the weekends, though. If a student or students had a particular genre of music she or he liked, they could have their own show on the weekends.
          We had classical, funk, bluegrass sounds on Saturdays and Sundays!

          1. I played 45s and LPs on the air and, many times, I would forget to switch the speed of the turntable (live!) and I would either have the slow, deep version of the song or the Alvin and the Chipmunks!

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Can’t argue with the early 1-3 South of I-90. Seems very reasonable at this point.|
    Most models seems to paint about 2 inches for the city. Frankly, At this point, I can’t see how they would get any more than that. If anything, less. But, we shall see.

    Current thinking of when it will start in the city?
    I’m afraid our dinner reservations at 7 PM will have to be cancelled. I am game, but
    my wife does not feel like going out in the snow and I understand that.

      1. Thank you sir. She may be very willing to go if no snow
        as we get ready, go out to the car and drive in town. If not snow
        while she exits the car at valet and walk across the street
        to the restaurant, it would be OK. If snowing when we exit
        the restaurant, no big deal as we will have already made it.

        If it starts at 6PM, NO GOOD. Really iffy call right now.
        Not about to cancel just yet, but I am still leaning that way.

        Many thanks for you thoughts.

  11. I may be out to lunch, BUT the 12Z NAM is showing some signs of the cold
    holding on, surface and aloft. Perhaps it erodes very quickly after 7PM Saturday, but
    up to that point it looks very cold.

    Of course that is the NAM at 84 hours, so can’t take too much stock in that.

    I am wondering if Saturday night becomes much more interesting
    than first thought.

  12. Like I said earlier, time has been flyin’, but I meant to post last week, Dave, that I do know your daughter is also a Spanish teacher and how great that is! I know that STEM is a huge focus these days in school and in our world, but I do believe that language acquision and the Humanities are important to.

    I do love it when my students tell me they were able to speak to a Spanish-speaking customer at the local Dunks and make her coffee for her in the target language. I had a former student of mine who spent some time recently in Costa Rica and he told me he went through the San José airport and conducted all of his airport business in Spanish!

    That’s rewarding!!!

    1. That is truly rewarding.

      While my daughter was in High School, she had a part-time job at Woolworth’s
      (No longer in existence today) and there was a Spanish speaking customer
      who could not communicate with anyone. My daughter took care of her and
      every time she came to the store thereafter, she sought out my daughter.

    1. Ticks are very resilient unfortunately. They don’t even need a warm spell but that did not help.

    2. Ticks live year round. You can get them on you mid-winter with a foot of snow on most areas of ground. In the woods, there are still bare spots. I suspect the reason folks are noticing them more is that there isn’t any snow anywhere.

  20. These are some positive signs on the GFS and CFS if you are looking for some more sustained cold and snow chances around here. Need to disrupt the PV to get more cold air down here. We have shots but cant seem to hold onto it. The MJO isn’t helping that though….

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    5h

    As suspected, MJO doesn’t look like it’ll continue to move into the ‘cold phases’ for us of 8-1-2

    Still going to get colder, but MJO won’t be a big driver

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1217435751866040320?s=20

      1. You did indeed but some people on here don’t always believe what you say so backing it up with another source 🙂

  23. Forecast temp ranges for Boston and their daily high temps the last 3 days…

    Monday: Forecast upper 30s to lower 40s. High temp 43 (uncorrected).
    Tuesday: Forecast upper 30s to lower 40s. High temp 42 (uncorrected).
    Today: Forecast lower 50s. High temp 52 (uncorrected).

    One of my weaknesses is short range temps. It always has been. Not the case this time though. 😉 I’ll take it.

    I think they will be lower to middle 40s tomorrow occurring at the typical time, and upper 20s Friday, but that high will occur in the overnight (pre-dawn) hours.

    As of right now I like a 6PM-8PM onset for snow in the city on Saturday and about 3 inches there before it ends as mix or rain. Most of the precipitation, as stated yesterday, will fall before a changeover can occur.

  25. I thought I heard Eric saying 3-6″ this weekend. As is often the case, lower amounts south and east and higher north and west. Then I thought I heard him saying rain at the end. Unfortunately I was cooking at the time.

  26. Eric has generally 3-6” including Boston which seems a bit high to me considering the change to rain towards the end. Harvey has 1-3” and I have no idea about the other stations thoughts.

        2. He’s not smoking anything. He said it was a preliminary map and it may change.

          I actually have Boston on the edge of a 3 to 6 inch area too.

            1. I don’t think Eric was envisioning Boston getting 6 inches. The area was 3-6 inches. He probably thinks Boston will be on the lower side of that. Same thought process I have.

  27. Snowfall map from Eric Fisher
    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1217610213513187336

    Tweets from Eric Fisher
    The next snow chance is late Saturday into Saturday night. Pretty good initial thump of snow but moving very quickly with some rain mixing in. Same thoughts for this one….general 2-6″ from SE to NW.

    If you’re looking for a big snowstorm, the EPS says it’ll have to wait until February. I’m skeptical…end of the month looks kinda interesting. Nothing flashing yet, though.

  28. Thank you, TK.

    Atlantic lows battering Ireland and Britain: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-berkshire-51117465

    I recall these storms well. I had never heard the wind howl as loudly as it did in England – lived there in 1984 – and Holland – lived there from 1980 to ’83 and ’85 to ’95, with the exception of 1984. Granted, the fall and winter there were very drab most of the time, with not much weather happening. Snows were infrequent, and rarely big amounts. Did experience an occasional winter with a period of prolonged cold (2-3 weeks; temps are stuck at -3C during the day and -9C at night, almost no change from day to day because the high pressure area remained stationary) which made the canals freeze over and allowed one to skate from town to town in Holland.

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