Monday Forecast

52 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)
A quiet 5-day period as high pressure approaches today then settles across the region Tuesday through midweek before shifting offshore Friday. We start out with wind and cold today between the approaching high and a departing offshore storm. The northwesterly air flow over the warmer water may bring a few snow showers to outer Cape Cod today. Tranquil weather is expected Tuesday through midweek as high pressure moves overhead. Cloudiness arrives Friday as the high shifts offshore and a warm front moves toward the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds give way to sunshine except additional clouds and a risk of snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior valleys, 10-17 elsewhere. Wind calm.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind S under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)
January 25-26 weekend will likely be impacted by a low pressure area, track uncertain, with a risk of snow/mix/rain. Fair, cold January 27. Clipper type low brings snow shower risk January 28. Fair, cold January 29.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
Watching January 30-February 2 for possible winter storm threat with high pressure in eastern Canada and potential low pressure near or south of New England. Fair, colder to end period.

52 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!

    Next weekend looks interesting once again. Maybe this time it will be a coastal located at the benchmark with an ALL RAIN scenario. I certainly never thought of a Great Lakes cutter with all or mostly snow setup for SNE until now…and “fluffy”snow no less! 🙂

    2. Weatherbug is calling for a 50% chance of rain on Saturday and 60% chance of rain on Sunday and Monday.

  8. Answers to yesterday’s Quizzes.

    1) Rain falling into a very shallow layer of air below 32 degrees at the ground results in …
    A. Sleet
    B. Hail
    C. Rime ice
    D. None of the above

    2) Rain falling into a deep layer of air below 32 degrees results in …

    A. Sleet
    B. Hail
    C. Rime ice
    D. None of the above

    The correct answers are D & A. Everyone was right!

    1. Pretty much! Thank you. 🙂

      Mom has another appointment tomorrow at which time we learn a lot about the time frame & details.

  11. Last year this time many icy sidewalks around Boston for several days, if not an entire week. Iirc heavy snow fell that Saturday night then changed to heavy rain early Sunday morning followed by days of bitter cold with anything that wasn’t shoveled frozen solid. I believe it was a more typical Great Lakes cutter. Thankfully no repeat this year. Even though snow is solid, most sidewalks around the city are free and clear of ice.

  12. GFS : projecting something we see from time to time in the northeast …. enough mild air initially for rain next weekend, but surface feature being captured by decent 500 mb disturbance, holding surface low for a while near the coast, all the while the column cooling, first aloft, then down to the surface for some snow all the way to the coast. Tis plausible.

  14. The euro sort of following suit thru hr 144. Initially too mild in eastern New England, but the 500 mb disturbance is to the west over central pa.

    Let’s see what happens at hr 168.

  15. Well, at hr 168, the 500 mb feature has strengthened and the 850 mb temps have cooled over us.

    Based on the location of the 500mb feature and sfc low, I’d guess there could be some light backlash snow in southern areas and maybe something more further north.

    This is a watcher.

    500 mb features that are strengthening as they pass by can be good snow producers on the backside. Optimally, if the 500 mb feature could end up a bit further south than the 12z projection, we might be in business. And, maybe it will in the coming model runs.

    This reminds me a little of an event we had in December when we were keeping our eyes on part 3, the backlash and location of the comma head and where it would track.

  16. Also, and of course, subject to change, but a tiny 500 mb feature diving SE at hr 216. At the surface, NE flow. I wonder if the euro has a little snow in SE Mass then ?

    The big picture is that the arctic and even very cold air is retreating north of 60N.

    Without it, it still can snow locally, but we need to rely more on dynamics during this time, when true cold air is lacking. Looks like there’s a couple opportunities though.

  17. Thanks, TK…Hope you are doing better.

    Barcelona and Catalunya (Spanish region in the northeast of the country) are having quite a storm. They are in the midst of a three-day storm (“Gloria”) that is bringing strong, sustained winds off the Mediterranean, tidal flooding, rains, and snows in the higher elevations. The storm is expected to intensify and last through the day tomorrow.

    1. We are really one step closer to naming individual clouds aren’t we? Other than tropical systems, this entire thing about naming synoptic events is perplexing. And now each region / country / etc. are coming up with their own lists. Day-by-day weather forecasts and regular updates for regions based on TIME FRAMES will always be better than talking about named storms that are not tropical systems. I admin on a national page on FB with a few people from various countries and they struggle to remember the name of a winter storm before they can describe what happened in it. It’s just not necessary to name these things.

      But to answer your question, I’m doing just fine thanks. 🙂

  19. Three windows…

    January 25-26: Still at the tough call stage. Starting to feel a southern route, snow/mix favored over rain for most areas. Still some risk that the system ends up even further south. A system over southern New England that looks wetter on some model runs will probably end up snowier due to DC (not diet coke, dynamic cooling) but it’s a little early for anything more detailed. Just a general idea of one of the possible scenarios.

    January 31-February 2: Potential winter storm.

    February 4-5: Potential winter storm.

    After that we may go very dry.

      1. I think if the storm gets in here they’ll likely snow. It may end up too far south for significant impact though. Still a long way to go so don’t place your bet just yet. 🙂

  20. Great winter for local and city snow removal budgets. Personally I like winters like the one we are currently experiencing. I work in the funeral business, weather that we are having now makes it much better for the families we serve, slips and falls and all the other hazards.

          1. And you obviously forgot the lesson of 2015 when you were saying the same thing pretty much on this same date… 😉

            No louder lesson about writing winter off early than there was that year. 😛

  22. Don’t worry JpDave.

    Winter will arrive sometime in February and stay through March and early April, making for the usual 5 to 6 months of misery.

    Nov – Jan : the depressing lack of light.

    Feb thru early April : winter cold while the rest of the country starts to warm up.

    Typical New England 🙂 🙂 🙂

  23. Good morning!

    9.5 here on ye ole Oregon Scientific.
    -1 in Orange and in Concord NH; -7 in Keene at 0500.

  24. It’s always nice to know that models are still far more believed than forecasters are. 😉

    At least we know what we’re up against….still…. 😛

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