Saturday Forecast

99 Comments

9:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)
Our pattern recently has to been spread out the storm systems and get longer stretches of quiet weather, and that will be the case for a while. We dealt with some storminess mainly in the form of snow with some rain to the south last weekend, and this weekend we will deal with another passing low pressure area of fairly short duration, but this time all rain as we have mild air in place. We’ll essentially see this event over about a 6 to 10 hour period tonight, but during its peak it will produce a pretty good slug of rain, and even possibly some thunder. So if you have Saturday night plans be ready for rain, but at least you don’t have to plan for snow or ice. This system, which consists of a parent low moving into the Great Lakes and a secondary low which will form near the Delmarva and move right across southern New England, will be out of here quickly Sunday morning, leaving southeastern New England in a drying westerly air flow during the day. However, we won’t see a blast of cold coming in right behind this system as we often do during winter. This time mild air follows it. Somewhat colder air will filter into the region during the first few days of the coming week, helped out a little by a quietly passing cold front on Tuesday and high pressure in eastern Canada. Previously I had snow showers in the forecast for the Tuesday system, but at the moment it appears that will slip through here without enough moisture to work with to produce any snow showers, just some clouds.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy rain mid to late afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, strongest at the coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy through late evening with rain, likely moderate to heavy for a period of time which may also include a thunderstorm. Breaking clouds overnight. Temperature rise slightly to 45-52 evening. Overnight lows 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH evening, W 10-20 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-43. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
High pressure should hold on for day weather the last couple days of January. Watching the February 1-2 weekend for a possible storm system, this one having colder air to work with and a greater risk of having some snow/ice involved. Fair, colder to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Potential stormy periods at the beginning an end of the period, with fair and seasonably cold weather between.

99 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Is the shifting around of the system for 2/1,2/2 just normal model adjustments, OR
    is this system forever lost to us? thanks

  4. Thank you, TK.

    No title? I usually click on last person who posted and scroll up. But all I saw was Philip and JPD on. Please do not take this as my suggestion you add a title. I’m having fun with the something new.

  5. It either showed up as 9519 or blank depending on how you viewed it.

    The title was there, but in an odd glitch, WP erased it as I hit send. It’s fixed.

      1. It got the 9519 from whatever code it uses to name itself. Funny!

        I am feeling well. 🙂 Much better than earlier this week. Thanks 🙂

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I looked up your thoughts and forecasts for this winter. They’ve been darn good. Don’t underestimate your ability. Sure, more persistent warmth in January than you thought, but other than that it’s been really good. And, I think your thoughts on February being mostly cold and dry may well turn out true.

    1. It may be delayed by a couple weeks. We may end up snowier the first half of the month than I’d have thought when I wrote the forecast, but we’ll see. I’m not even sold on that yet.

  10. Watching the current 12z GFS run …..

    I feel like it’s September and I’m watching a northern stream autumn cold front turn a hurricane due east once it passes Hatteras.

          1. Indeed !

            Of course, the specific interactions and surface features are likely to change.

            But the PNA goes positive up to +1 standard deviation and it does appear this is a time period for some sort of western ridge/eastern trof setup.

  12. Euro looks somewhat similar to gfs with a bomb. Just don’t know if it gets intense nearby or once past us and how close its pass is.

      1. Well, my service says 4.1 inches for boston with some rain/mix
        6-9 inches inland. A very fast moved

        Euro courtesy of F5 Weather.

        https://imgur.com/a/0LgFimx
        https://imgur.com/a/rfZn0cM

        Pivotal Weather

        https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012512/204/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

        10:1 snow. Comparing it to Euro, this includes considerable sleet which lowers the actual accumulation. But, worrying about
        a rain/snow/sleet line 7 days in advance is rather futile. 🙂

        https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012512/240/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

      1. Agree. I think there will be a fairly powerful storm. The only
        question will be the final track as to whether it is all snow, rain, rain/mix, sleet/mix or a total miss. Should be a fun week monitoring this, unless or until a lakes cutter becomes the clear
        solution. 🙂

  15. It is not often these storms that show big snows 7 days out or more pan out. The only one in my life I remember is the Blizzard of 2013. I hope this one does pan out.

      1. Sorry, for me it is still Blizzard of 78.
        36 inches of snow filled my street from end to end.
        True, there were no 5 inch per hour rates, but it snowed 24 hours at pretty much 1 1/2 inch per hour the entire time with 75 mph winds in the city. I watched trees bend almost sideways. How they
        didn’t come down, I’ll never know. I actually took a walk to the Dunkin donuts down the center. AMAZING!!!!

      1. Never can have enough maps. 🙂
        You actually posted the surface for a different hour than I did. 🙂

  21. I wasn’t alive for the Blizzard of 78 but if I was from the stories I have heard I would have ranked that first and behind would have been Blizzard of 2013.

    1. First winter in Marshfield we were evacuated as the ocean was right up the street from us flowing down ocean bluff .

  22. For 2/1-2/2, The over/under for Logan is 6 inches of snow and/or sleet.

    Who wants the over and who wants the under. Remember for a rain event or a miss,
    you want to choose the under. 🙂

    The way this Winter is going, let me be the first to choose the UNDER!!!!

    Tally:

    Over: 0
    Under: 1

    3. I think Tommy will be back . But if SF looses because of Jimmy G could be a different story . Jimmy G is actually an interception machine & the team has legitimate concerns when he has the ball .

  29. Neither. Logan will record 6.0” exactly but there will be a swath of 10-14” from Hartford up through Worcester County to the north shore. That’s my official wishcast 🙂

    2. Holy crap! 958mb bomb and basically occludes over Boston.

      Interior areas absolutely crushed and hurricane conditions on the shore.

  33. Way too early to have any confidence about next weekend, but I’m very skeptical of some of the low SLP projections at so far south latitude. Lack of Arctic air nearby will hurt the baroclinic processes. Weaker and warmer would be my very early call, but lots of time to watch.

    1. WX I’m with you we have a pretty decent week ahead & next weekend looks to be in the 40s would you agree . I worked last night 11-7 & it was a very nice night weather wise for this time a year . January is almost a wrap .

      1. Most of this week looks very quiet. High pressure, temperatures above normal. TK’s forecast has this as well. Too early to make a call on anything for next weekend, but it’s at least a period to watch for unsettled weather. At this very early stage I’d favor mostly rain near the coast, but tons of time to watch.

  35. Correction on my wishcast comment above….my official wishcast would be for that run to verify 50-75 miles east. 🙂

    This is obviously overdone but I’d take half of that and be content.

  38. 0.28 here 43F. Winds have been in evidence most of afternoon but not like we have had so far this winter

    2. Yep. Inside runner on the 00z GFS. At still 7 days out, we have a ways to go before we are going to see much run to run consistency.

  46. Very quick update is posted! I didn’t do much with this blog, to be honest. I didn’t change a thing. WxW’s ideas are similar to mine. Although I will say I think the Euro may be completely lost at the moment. GFS has been doing a better job all week.

    See you on the flip!

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