Saturday Forecast

49 Comments

9:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Low pressure passes well southeast of New England today, keeping its precipitation shield offshore. A little upper level energy will trigger a few rain and snow showers today through early Sunday, and a warm front will approach later Sunday, passing through the region Sunday night with a risk of a period of snow/mix, but nothing too significant. The pick of the 5-day period will be Monday with sunshine and mild air for February. After that, things start to head downhill as a frontal boundary stretches across the region, separating that mild air from colder air in Canada. It won’t be arctic cold sitting up there, but mid winter cold, and that type of a set-up always makes for a tricky forecast as to where the boundary will set up, where it may move, and timing of any episodes of precipitation, and of course, precipitation-types. We won’t face too much of that Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but it will be like the opening act to what may be a longer stretch of unsettled weather to come. Anyway the wording for Tuesday and Wednesday will be vague for now, then fine-tuned later.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a few snow showers. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a snow or rain shower early. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow/mix possible. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain possible favoring northern MA / southern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Risk of rain/mix/snow. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
We’ll be near a boundary of mild air to the south and cold air to the north February 6-8 which will be unsettled with periods of snow/mix/rain. Fair, slightly colder weather later in the period as high pressure moves in from the northwest.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Back into unsettled weather with the next round of battle between mild south and cold north.

49 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks Tk . Got into the city around 6am this morning and it feels so good outside today I’m loving it . Left the house at 5 roads were fine they had salted but I’m hearing multiple problems in my area for Black Ice with multiple accidents being reported . Have a great weekend and thanks Tk

          1. Yes. As TK and Wxwatcher have mentioned, there’ll be a boundary near New England mid week with ripples of low pressure riding along it.

            How much of a push the cold air has from the north will decide the placement of an area of snow/sleet and maybe a strip of freezing rain.

            On the particular run, a thick layer of cold enough air exists over us to produce snow.

            I’m sure that will waver north and south over the next 3-4 days.

  7. A friend is visiting her family in Norrköping, Sweden. Crocuses, snowdrops are up and bloomed. Tulip leaves are up about three to four inches .

  8. Another ripple of low pressure follows the initial snowy one, this ripple a bit further north and a milder atmospheric profile, so its northern New England snow.

    Again, I think it will be interesting to see which projects to dominate more in the coming days, the southeast ridge (milder outcome), the northern jet stream (colder outcome).

    2. Bite at your own risk. Odds are you will bite down on a poison pill. Biting would be safety this year when it’s less than 100 miles away on radar headed our way and unavoidable. Until then, a total waste of computing power wherever these model servers live.

      1. Yes, I completely understand. I was just telling my wife about this snow forecast compared with the 7 day temperature forecasts
        from last night’s weather broadcast. Interesting.

        I “might” bite IF the Euro is on board. 🙂

  10. College of DuPage GFS Kuchera snow for the next 10 days. Please note sharp gradient
    of snow accumulation North to South. Wouldn’t take much to move that area North or South. However, my guess is if it moves at all, it would move more to the North.

    https://imgur.com/a/L7b0EU6

  11. Euro at hr 96 looks a bit hopeful for chilly air to flow into New England ahead of approaching low pressure from our southwest.

    Southeast Canada and northern New England look like they have confluence flow at 500 mb, which should help to reinforce Canadian high pressure at the surface.

    Will the euro have a cold enough column at hr 120 in southern New England ……

              1. So, it’s picking up on something frozen falling, whether sleet or snow.

                Alright, we’ll have to see if this trends colder or warmer in the next 72 hrs.

  15. Logan recorded a Trace of snow today. On the other extreme, Boston recorded 10.0” of snow on this date in 1898.

    Amazing how much our climate has changed in a mere 122 years.

    1. But, five years ago we were in the middle of a series of massive snowstorms. Similarly, 9 years ago we were in the midst of a 6-week snow blitz (greatest snow blitz I’ve ever experienced; man, do I miss that winter). One cannot glean anything from the trace of snow we got today compared to what Boston got in 1898. We can’t even glean much from this winter’s mild character thus far.

      I do think that globally there has been a significant warming trend over the past 30 years. This doesn’t mean that Boston can’t experience a cold winter. It has. But, overall the trend line is up with regard to temperature.

    2. You do realize that 4 of the 5 warmest Januaries were in the 1910s and 1930s right? Harvey Leonard addressed this on air the other day, saying what I often do that a pattern like this CANNOT be blindly attributed to climate change. He said “it’s more complex than that”. And he’s right. 100% correct. He did go on to explain that while our influence is there so are many natural cycles. Basically, he’s thinking like a scientist should, because he is one. 🙂

      You can’t take a trace of snow on February 1 and 10 inches of snow on the same date in the late 1800s and use that as an example of how much climate has changed in however many years are between then and now. That’s not how it’s done at all. In fact that’s extremely misleading. How many times could I find a date in 1898 that had no snow and any modern date that had substantial snow. Could I use that to say it’s amazing how much the climate as cooled in the last century. That would be just as incorrect.

      If you want to use snowfall as an example of possible climate shift impact, you’d actually be better at pointing out that overall our snowfall is generally higher since the 1990s. Two of the last 3 decades have been the snowiest on record for the region as a whole. And there were many climate scientists that theorized that a warmer climate would actually lead to an increase in snowfall in the northeastern part of North America. This may very well be proving that theory true. We can’t say just because this winter (so far) is less snowy than average that it’s because of a warmer climate. While a warmer climate may play some role in the overall pattern, this season’s lack of snow is due to the current and fairly persistent weather pattern, just as the snow blitz of 2015 was also mainly a result of a stable (unchanging) pattern that happened to be the perfect set-up for a series of major powder snowstorms. That was also in a warmer climate than we had a century before, yet here it was incredibly cold. That’s where it becomes very important to understand the differences between weather and climate.

      1. Thanks TK! 🙂

        I missed Harvey’s comments regarding this current pattern. Just this morning Dave Epstein mentioned the 1930’s and attributed the Dust Bowl era as a contribution.

        Not so fun fact: Boston had “zero” snowfall in February in the 1930’s. Dave Epstein didn’t mention the specific year as he was probably running out of time. I would be curious as to what year it was though. Maybe our current climate isn’t so unprecedented after all.

        1. There are things that can be classified as unprecedented in the time that we’ve been taking observations. From a lifetime standpoint, that’s a long time, and a big deal. In the long run of history, it’s hardly any time at all. But we’ve seen enough of a jump in “our” history that it should concern us. Again, I’m not an alarmist and I’m never commenting on this in any way connected to politics, just science and observation.

          As I always say, take care of your world. It’s the only one you have. 🙂

            1. I look at it this way. They get a point for finishing in a regulation tie. That’s how it was before they had OT/shoot-out. They still get that point. They just don’t get the extra.

              I think people make too much out of OT and shoot-out losses in the regular season. They benefit the winning team, but they don’t really hurt the “losing” team. The Bruins were the same way last year and they were 1 win away from a Stanley Cup. Those OT losses didn’t cost them anything.

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