Monday Forecast

45 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Well we may as well get the nicest day of the week out of the way, right? A warm front will clear the area this morning and High pressure centered way down near the Gulf Coast and Florida extends its influence northward far enough to bring decent weather to our area today, and then things will change. Then comes the parade of lows. The first approaches Tuesday and departs Wednesday as a fairly weak low pressure wave moving over or even just south of the region, but there will be enough mild air in place that this system’s precipitation will be mainly rain. However cold air coming into the region as it departs may flip it to snow with a small accumulation early Wednesday before we get some clearing in. Hot on its heels comes another low from the southwest and this one will start as snow, with some accumulation during the first part of Thursday, before a messy flip to sleet, freezing rain, and rain occurs as warmer air moves in both aloft and at the surface. And behind this comes yet another, stronger low pressure area that will cross the region by the middle of the day on Friday, with this system bringing mainly rain. But we will have to watch for a flip back to snow on the back side of this one as more cold air arrives. Timing is uncertain for that, and being at the end of the 5-day period we have a few days to fine-tune it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy early to mid morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny early morning. Cloudy thereafter. Light rain likely in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers possible. Clearing afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/ice/rain likely. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Mix/rain likely. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix to snow, ending late. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Active pattern continues. Storm threats around February 9 and again late period with snow/mix favored for the first and any type of precipitation possible for the second threat should it occur. Overall temperatures will still average a little above normal but not by that much.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Mid February continues to also look unsettled with the battle of cold north / mild south and a couple low pressure systems likely impacting the region.

45 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. They seem to mention it every game and always put the camera on his father in the stadiums (they did it in the superbowl) – but then again I watch a LOT of football. lol

      2. Ok, that may be, but I have NEVER seen that before and thus I did not know it until I looked up his age last evening for my wife.

  10. Answers to Trivia Quizzes

    1) What is the average snowfall in Boston for February since 1872?
    A. 11.4″
    B. 13.1″
    C. 15.4″
    D. 17.9″

    2) How many Februaries in Boston have recorded less than an inch of total snow? (I didn’t like this question because it didn’t give a start date. Since 1872?)
    A. 10
    B. 8
    C. 6
    D. 3

    The answers (I think) are B & B. I wasn’t so sure these questions were worded correctly to start with.

    2. The answer to #1 is definitely A (11.4”) as the average snowfall for January is 13.1”.

      As for #2 I will take your word for it Longshot. I totally guessed A since I have no idea otherwise.

  11. Ok, MAJOR shift with the 12Z NAM. Surprise, surprise, Surprise.
    Now there is ONE Model with a SHIFT to the NORTH for Thursday. Now not showing
    ANY snow for most of SNE on Thursday.

    6Z NAM snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020020306/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    12Z NAM SNOW

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020020312/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Ya think there might be a bit of a shift there. This is the change I was worried about. Now let’s see if the other models pick up on this OR if the NAM is on an island????

  13. Euro wants to snow a little on the 12th, but has pretty much lost the 9th.

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020312/084/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    The 9th…blah blah blah

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020312/150/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

    the 12th

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020312/210/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020312/216/sn10_024h.us_ne.png

  15. FWIW Boston’s average January snow is 12.9 inches and its average February snow is 10.9 inches.

      1. It’s the 30, and that’s the one that should be used, according to the Massachusetts State Climatologist.

      1. If so, do you have a link to the one that should be used. I know that several years ago when the link was posted on the contest page that was the one I was advised to use

      2. That link is adequate. They tend to so some rounding with the numbers, but for practical use it’s fine. I got mine straight from the NWS web page. I’m mobile now but I can post that later. 🙂

  16. The consistency of the warmth this winter remains impressive. Widespread 60s in my region today. The pattern we’re in now and for the foreseeable future strongly resembles the wet/warm pattern of last spring and early summer when we had so much flooding and severe weather down here. And it looks like last winter too. The Southeast ridge has more or less been king for well over a year now, with only occasional disruptions.

    1. My friend visiting family in Sweden said they are well ahead of schedule. Flowers, for instance, are two months ahead. But then the Swedes as a whole support standards to improve their country and reverse the damage we have done

  18. Vicki, Most of Europe’s been truly a `blow torch’ all winter. Essentially no frost in Holland at the coast, with only minimal frost (a few nights here and there) inland. That’s been an alarming trend for years now. I do understand why there’s more climate change activism in Europe, given the fact that for the past 20-30 years winters have more or less disappeared in many parts of Western Europe. Flora and fauna have responded by behaving in very unusual ways. Perhaps what’s most alarming is that even when there’s a so-called Scandinavian high steering in an easterly it hardly makes a difference in temperature. Why? Because it just isn’t that cold in Eastern Europe either. By contrast, summers have been exceptionally warm in Western Europe for the past 20 years.

    1. Exactly what my friend and her family have been telling me. Also her friends throughout a good part of Europe. Thanks for the post. Needless to say, they are a bit perplexed by the approach here.

  19. I like a little weaker, warmer, and faster for the upcoming unsettled stretch. And it makes sense. The indices support this kind of pattern still. Transition wants to happen but it’s held at bay until something gives. And that will take place when it’s ready to.

    It’s not like we haven’t seen this before, both to the harsh side and not so harsh side. This time it happens to be the not so harsh side for our area.

  20. New post (reflecting the ideas of above).

    If there was one thing I have been way off on, it’s the inability of the indices to let loose so we can transition to something different than we’ve been in since about late December. Not time yet!

Comments are closed.