Thursday Forecast

92 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
On this date 42 years ago, a historic blizzard was about to get underway. The Blizzard of ’78 is still the storm to which all others are compared to, or fail to measure up to, for many who were around for it. Today, a storm has arrived, and it definitely will not measure up, but make no mistake, it is significant in that it is impacting the morning commute with snow and ice in a good portion of the region, causing delays and some cancellations. Forecast-wise, there are no significant changes with this system, as today we see a transition to rain take place, but freezing rain has been occurring already in areas southwest of Boston, maybe a little more than expected, and while it warms up there, we will see temperatures struggle to get to and above freezing in some sections of north central MA and interior southern NH, so the icing threat will be with those areas after transition to rain for much of the day. There will be a lull in the precipitation as low #1 of 2 goes by, and it should be warm enough in all areas for just rain for a good portion of the precipitation from the second low, which will soak the region especially early Friday, but all the while, colder air will be set to move in from the north once again and we’ll need to watch the surface temperatures for a chance to freezing rain before precipitation attempts to go to sleet and/or snow before ending. But I still feel the steadiest of it should be exiting right around the time it is cold enough to support frozen precipitation again, so any accumulation on the back side should be limited, and many areas may just see a passing shower of sleet or snow instead. More importantly will be the free-up of any standing water or any remaining wet surfaces on Friday night as much colder air arrives. There will be wind so that will provide some aid in the drying process. However if you do plan on being out, use caution. The weekend currently looks dry and cold as high pressure dominates Saturday and a very weak low pressure area passes south of the region, too far south for impact, on Sunday. One change I have to make to today’s forecast is to bring the next system in more quickly, but it currently looks like it will be a low pressure area heading for northern New England or the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday, putting southern New England into milder air with rain showers the most likely type of precipitation we see here. But at 5 days out, there are still time for additional changes, as this pattern of multiple systems and fast movement can play havoc with any forecast.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain transitioning to rain but pockets of freezing rain remaining north central MA and southern NH. Little additional snow/sleet accumulation from here on. Highs 31-36 central MA through southern NH, 37-42 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Pockets of freezing rain still possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures ranging from 32-37 north central MA and southern NH to near 50 Cape Cod. Wind SE 5-15 MPH RI and southeastern MA, variable from E to N up to 10 MPH elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Overcast through early afternoon with rain, possibly freezing rain pockets north central to northeastern MA and southern NH, then precipitation may turn to sleet and/or snow from northwest to southeast before ending. Mostly cloudy remainder of day with a risk of passing showers of sleet/snow Boston area north and west, rain showers then mix/snow showers southeast of Boston. Temperatures remaining in the 30s north central and northeastern MA through southern NH, falling into the 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29 evening, rising back to the 30s overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
A cold front should be moving through early February 11 with rain showers that may end as snow showers. Quick shot of cold follows. Next low pressure approaches later February 12 into February 13 based on current timing with a threat of a variety of precipitation, then a trend to drier weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
A long duration unsettled weather event is possible during this period.

92 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. At 7am, its -35F in Barrow, AK and 75F in Miami, FL.

    Hello arctic contained polar vortex and southeast ridge.

  4. Thanks Tk I’m exhausted . Storm went down in Boston as you advertised but a good hour after 4 it came down decently.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Scrapped 1/4 inch of mostly sleet from my car this morning. I have no clue how
    much may have melted by the time I got out there or how much compression there was,
    But for now, going with 0.25 inch. 🙂

  6. I was on accuweather this morning to check the entended forecast for the Florida Keys and they have released their spring outlook.

    Northeast and Great Lakes : chilly ….

    That will probably verify.

    In fact, it would be downright New England to have a colder March average temp and maybe April as well compared to what we experienced in January and may see again in February.

    Insert JpDave frustration here. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  8. In the previous blog, WxWatcher mentioned the term: “Sting Jet”.
    Frankly, I don’t recall ever hearing that term. Perhaps I have heard it and is buried
    deep within my memory banks. I don’t know.

    In any case, I looked it up. Pretty fascinating. Here is a link:

    https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Sting_Jet

    So do we get one tomorrow? or close to it? or something resembling it?

      1. Thank WxWatcher, not I. I simply latched onto what
        WxWatcher said and did a wee bit of research.

        We learn so much here from each other.

        Compare what we know now compared to the day the blog started.
        Do you think we “may” have just learned a thing or 2?

        THANK YOU TK!!!!

  9. 31 at the house this morning in Coventry CT with a decent glaze on the branches, grass and other cold surfaces. It was all freezing rain and drizzle (no sleet or snow) which didn’t surprise me at all. Fortunately the roads were fine though so kids did not have a delay.

    Dave – before I forget, please mark me down for 0.2″ of snow from that coating we got Friday night (1/31) from the burst of snow that occurred in advance of the storm that passed largely off shore on Saturday. Thx.

    1. Mark, thanks. Did you have a measurable glaze this morning? Like 0.1 inch or so? If so, that counts. If not even that much, then forget it.
      I’ll try to remember when I get home. Have to work 2 extra hours today.

  10. Perhaps TK could create a test for us to take and if we pass we get an honorary “ armchair meteorologist degree” As I too have expanded my atmospheric knowledge reading this blog for years.
    Thank you professor TK , WxWatcher , JMA , SAK and others at WHW University!!

    1. And that PV swirling and spiraling perfectly around the North Pole translates to our winter spiraling right down the toilet bowl 🙂

  16. Should have had a delay in Andover today… A little less than 2 inches on the ground, and sleet at pickup time. Bus was at least 30 minutes late with kids standing out in the sleet. Finally drove my kid, roads a mess, million parents driving their kids so huge traffic mess, then someone plowed into a pole right near the school, took it down across the road so had to close that road in, everyone had to come the other way. Passed another closed road on the way back, with an accident… total mess!

  18. Some support in analog years that this mild winter might sail right on into Spring….

    John Homenuk
    @jhomenuk
    22h

    We can hope. 1990 is an analog that keeps popping up in my research for Spring. Here’s how it unfolded in Feb vs where models are through mid month —>

    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1225115508359475200?s=20

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    21h

    Yeah most of the winters I’ve looked at that were like this wire to wire just kept rolling into spring

  19. On the bright side, 3 out of the 51 Euro ensembles now show the MJO heading into Phase 8 in a few weeks 🙂

    Grasping at very thin straws….

  20. Thanks TK! Good discussion above on the winds tomorrow. “Sting jet” is one of those terms that’s a little bit taboo to use, because you can quickly get into some (probably unnecessarily) technical discussions/debates about whether it is actually a sting jet in the most classic sense of the term.

    From what I’m seeing, nothing’s changed since last night, and if anything the low projections are even stronger now. It is going to absolutely *howl* out there for a time tomorrow.

      1. In my research, I did see a very technical discussion of
        what is a TRUE sting jet vs what may imitate it, but not
        be a sting jet in the true definition of it.

        But in this case, no matter what it is labeled, the winds
        will be strong? no?

  24. Same exact here Vicki. We had a 2 hour delay, however it was changed last minute to a full cancelation. The high school here is a regional high school and some of the attending towns are small with hilly narrow back roads, and they doing so with small highway departments that have their hands full trying to treat the miles of roads in time for school.

  26. From Ryan Hanrahan for Friday
    Exceptionally low barometric pressure tomorrow (in fact the European model is forecasting a record for the month of February) with the potential for damaging winds on the backside of the low.

  27. JPD: When you get a chance, can you post your snowfall chart? Always curious as to how much you personally received compared to Logan. After running some errands in Brookline, it appeared that a decent amount fell, relatively speaking of course.

  28. Snow graph updating for this morning and also for the .2 inches Mark received on 1/31.
    I used 0.25 for JP when it was likely a tad more due to compression and some melting
    as I measured at 7:45 AM. 🙂 Close enough, although I am tempted to use Logan’s 0.3

    https://imgur.com/a/pyBe7wh

  29. 18Z NAM winds gusts for tomorrow

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2020020618&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=027

    18Z HRRR wind gusts

    https://imgur.com/a/67S83cC

    Ummm that is 60 knots OR 69 mph!!!!

    WxWatcher said the winds would howl! I guess so.

    NAM and GFS show much less in the way of wind. Still windy for sure, but
    more in the rang of 40-50 mph and not pushing 70.

    Is the HRRR onto something here? And better equipped to handle this situation????

  30. I would be surprised if there are *not* a couple of hurricane force wind gusts somewhere in the coastal Northeast US tomorrow associated with this storm. Most likely the Cape and Islands where a High Wind Warning is up now.

  31. Thank you, TK.

    And Tom, thank you for sharing the outlook – chilly spring – which will verify for sure. March will be colder than January. I know I’m going out on a limb. But, I’ve had that feeling for weeks now. Of course, this will be upsetting to all the ducklings that hatch early this year.

  32. Thanks, TK…

    Do you think that the winds will be at their peak at school dismissal (2-4 pm) tomorrow?

    Could this be a repeat of the windstorm of March 2, 2018?

  33. Storm is progged to be bombing out at 970mb when crossing CT and 965mb by the time it gets to coastal Maine. That is equivalent central pressure to a CAT 2 hurricane and bordering on CAT 3 by the time it gets up towards Maine.

    The wind is going to roar for sure. Should be some raging blizzard conditions by tomorrow PM in the White Mtns and western ME as well!

  34. 12z Euro and previous runs of the GFS and CMC have been toying with the idea of a weak coastal storm forming to our south later Tuesday into early Wed. and throwing some snow into SNE. Something to watch….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020020612&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro has a second snow event next Thursday (good thump of snow actually) while the GFS has us cold and dry with the system passing to our south.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020020612&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Both models are actually quite cold by end of next week. Euro has it down to 7 in Boston at Day 10…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct&rh=2020020612&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    We’ll see on that…I have been leery about the models trying to bring in the snow and cold in the 7-10 day range….

  35. I am hoping we get some of the white stuff here before next week is out.
    I am curious how the wind situation pans out for tomorrow.

  36. Go figure, 3 days ago my anemometer stopped working. I have a feeling it’s the internal reed switch inside the anemometer. Unfortunately it’s too high up to access, I had a friend years ago come up with a 40 foot ladder to install on the peak of the gable end of my house. I’ve got to get that taken care of ASAP. 🙁

    1. Oh ugh. I’d be tempted to climb up myself. Fortunately, better judgement tends to prevail……well, sometimes. But again, ugh ugh.

  37. Tomorrow’s wind event is likely to be impressive. I did not hit this hard in today’s forecast because I had some reservations on low track etc. Well now I don’t. 35-45 MPH gusts should be common everywhere. 45-55 MPH gusts will probably occur almost everywhere several times (except protected valleys). 55-65 MPH gusts are going to occur a handful of times in the typical exposed and elevated areas. 65-75 MPH peak wind gusts is my bet but in areas most known for such gusts in this situation.

    1. Thank you, TK. Not sure you saw the question above re timing. I’m concerned about buses on the way home and of course the commute

    1. Is this New England’s 2nd bomb cyclone this cold season, being storms that have dropped below 970mb and dropped more than 24 mb in 24 hrs …. Was there one this past autumn ??

  39. From Eric Fisher
    Some guidance suggests wind gusts may reach 70mph on the South Coast late tomorrow. It’s really going to rip.

      2. I assumed and should have asked if that applies even in this way. I know winds won’t be anywhere near as strong but it seems we have limbs down in this area even at the lower 40 mph ish winds

        1. If the NAM is correct, then it may not be too windy up through late morning. That time period will depend on what areas warm sector. Any area that doesn’t will be stable and have not too much wind. Any area that does warm sector will probably have some wind, but not extremely strong.

          All areas will see the wind pick up come early afternoon. I like TK’s description above from late this afternoon, early this evening.

    1. Sure is. I spoke to Macs cousins in Charlotte. The tornado was north of their home but they still had winds and hail

  41. Looks like a Katahdin special coming up. Epic storm in Maine.

    Btw, 2 weeks ago the models indicated a major storm would be brewing.

    1. Friends in Maine have shared the reports they are seeing. Rain has seemed to be the focus. None have mentioned excessive wind. Makes me curious

  42. I’m worried we (the meteorological community) are behind the 8 ball on the winds tomorrow. This could be bad. One of those situations where you hope that a) the event underperforms and b) that enough has been done to get the word out on relatively short notice.

    I do feel compelled to throw out a “highest gust” guess for tomorrow. I’ll say 85mph… somewhere in southeast New England. Again, that’s the very highest. For more representative numbers, I think TK has covered it well above.

    1. That concern I had about the cold air draining down to the south a bit is coming true this evening. Right at 32 here in Woburn, borderline freezing now.

  43. Good morning…

    34.3 right now, cloudy and damp.

    The latest HRRR gives Taunton a 56 mph gust at 2 pm. The school dismissal and commute home should be interesting!

    1. The High Wind Warning appears to have been expanded up to include all of Plymouth County and more of southern Bristol County.

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