DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
On this date 42 years ago, a historic blizzard was about to get underway. The Blizzard of ’78 is still the storm to which all others are compared to, or fail to measure up to, for many who were around for it. Today, a storm has arrived, and it definitely will not measure up, but make no mistake, it is significant in that it is impacting the morning commute with snow and ice in a good portion of the region, causing delays and some cancellations. Forecast-wise, there are no significant changes with this system, as today we see a transition to rain take place, but freezing rain has been occurring already in areas southwest of Boston, maybe a little more than expected, and while it warms up there, we will see temperatures struggle to get to and above freezing in some sections of north central MA and interior southern NH, so the icing threat will be with those areas after transition to rain for much of the day. There will be a lull in the precipitation as low #1 of 2 goes by, and it should be warm enough in all areas for just rain for a good portion of the precipitation from the second low, which will soak the region especially early Friday, but all the while, colder air will be set to move in from the north once again and we’ll need to watch the surface temperatures for a chance to freezing rain before precipitation attempts to go to sleet and/or snow before ending. But I still feel the steadiest of it should be exiting right around the time it is cold enough to support frozen precipitation again, so any accumulation on the back side should be limited, and many areas may just see a passing shower of sleet or snow instead. More importantly will be the free-up of any standing water or any remaining wet surfaces on Friday night as much colder air arrives. There will be wind so that will provide some aid in the drying process. However if you do plan on being out, use caution. The weekend currently looks dry and cold as high pressure dominates Saturday and a very weak low pressure area passes south of the region, too far south for impact, on Sunday. One change I have to make to today’s forecast is to bring the next system in more quickly, but it currently looks like it will be a low pressure area heading for northern New England or the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday, putting southern New England into milder air with rain showers the most likely type of precipitation we see here. But at 5 days out, there are still time for additional changes, as this pattern of multiple systems and fast movement can play havoc with any forecast.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain transitioning to rain but pockets of freezing rain remaining north central MA and southern NH. Little additional snow/sleet accumulation from here on. Highs 31-36 central MA through southern NH, 37-42 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Pockets of freezing rain still possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures ranging from 32-37 north central MA and southern NH to near 50 Cape Cod. Wind SE 5-15 MPH RI and southeastern MA, variable from E to N up to 10 MPH elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Overcast through early afternoon with rain, possibly freezing rain pockets north central to northeastern MA and southern NH, then precipitation may turn to sleet and/or snow from northwest to southeast before ending. Mostly cloudy remainder of day with a risk of passing showers of sleet/snow Boston area north and west, rain showers then mix/snow showers southeast of Boston. Temperatures remaining in the 30s north central and northeastern MA through southern NH, falling into the 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29 evening, rising back to the 30s overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
A cold front should be moving through early February 11 with rain showers that may end as snow showers. Quick shot of cold follows. Next low pressure approaches later February 12 into February 13 based on current timing with a threat of a variety of precipitation, then a trend to drier weather later in the period.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
A long duration unsettled weather event is possible during this period.