Friday Forecast

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
A lot will go on today in the weather department. We start the day with very little wind, just a northerly drift of air in interior areas and a variable breeze nearer the coastline, an overcast with areas of fog, and ribbons of rainfall, some pockets of freezing rain over interior areas where surface temperatures have slipped back below freezing. And big changes take place like a chaotic crowd of kindergarten kids running around at recess as the 2nd in a 1-2 low pressure punch comes by. This low is going to first cause the region to warm up, especially southern and eastern areas, although the colder interior areas will eventually warm to above freezing and alleviate the icy issue. Our precipitation from this passing 2nd low will produce its heaviest rain over Cape Cod and keep an area of heavy sleet and snow far to the north (big snow in some mountains and across the Canadian border). As the elongated low center starts to tighten up as it meets perfect conditions for rapid strengthening just as it is crossing southeastern New England during the day today, one more batch of rain showers may occur, and a couple of those may be heavy and even contain hail and thunder (though that will be the exception not the rule). The big story will become the wind as this system gets just beyond the region. First, a westerly wind will be felt increasing rapidly near the South Coast, and then as the low center departs a northwesterly wind will erupt across the region, strongest over eastern and southern areas where gusts above 40 MPH are likely, gust above 50 MPH are very possible, and gusts above 60 MPH are not out of the question. This will last several hours into this evening before the wind starts to scale back gradually, though this diminishment will take much of the day Saturday to complete itself. And Saturday will feel pretty cold as the temperatures, which plunges to the 20s tonight, struggles to get back to freezing, with a gusty breeze to add to that – something we have not seen too much of during the course of this winter so fair. Sunday’s weather while more tranquil will still be cold, and a weak area of low pressure will travel south of the region tossing a shield of high cloudiness across the sky to filter the sun. By Monday, another low heads from the Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence Valley, and a morning warm frontal passage may yield brief snow/sleet/rain for some areas before we are in the warm sector with a rain shower risk and milder air. The cold front trailing from the low will cross the region Monday night and a wave of low pressure traveling along it should stay south of the region Tuesday, but may be close enough to bring some rain to the South Coast.
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and periods of rain morning, with pockets of freezing rain north central MA and interior southern NH. Breaking clouds with a few rain showers, possibly briefly heavy with a slight risk of thunder and hail through mid afternoon, then a sun/cloud mix later in the day. Highs 38-43 southwestern NH and north central MA, 44-49 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH coastal areas and N under 10 MPH interior morning, becoming W then NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH except 25-35 MPH South Coast during this afternoon, with late-day gusts above 40-55 MPH and possibly 55-65 MPH, with higher elevations and some South Coast areas seeing isolated higher gusts still.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, strongest in eastern areas, diminishing somewhat overnight. Wind chill near 0 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 22-29 evening, rising back to the 30s overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/sleet/snow possible favoring northern areas early, then a chance of rain showers mainly in the afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers evening. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain South Coast. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Active pattern and near the border of cold north and mild south so any types of precipitation may occur, with current timing bringing threats through the region late February 12 into February 13, and again by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Similar pattern with episodes of unsettled weather and variable temperatures.

This entry was posted in Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

111 Responses to Friday Forecast

  1. WeatherWiz says:

    Safe to assume the first half of February will be the whole month at this point? By that I mean the dry conditions that were pushed out a few weeks may not materialize?

  2. South shore Kid says:

    Thanks Tk

  3. Scott77 says:

    Thanks TK

  4. Sue says:

    Thank you TK!

    Happy Friday to all,

  5. JpDave says:

    Good morning and thank you TK.
    Persistent fairly heavy drizzle falling in the City.
    Temp about 36.

    Hrrr has backed off to max wind gust for Boston of 39 knots or about 44 mph.
    Nams even lower, nearing 40 mph.

    Not that this wouldn’t be windy, but not the alarming gusts these models were
    showing last night.

    What’s up with that? The low tracking farther South and thus strongest winds
    pushed more to the SE?

    • Tom says:

      Perhaps its reflective of the cooler, stable airmass hanging a bit further south and east than anticipated by yesterday’s models.

      Certainly, to mix the 75 to 80 kt low level jet to the surface, that has a chance to happen where temps rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

  6. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

  7. Tom says:

    Per 9 am obs:

    Lancaster PA : 28.89 inches of mercury which equates to 978 mb

    Reported weather : Squall, west wind at 43, gusting to 58

    Notable squall line down by DC and Baltimore. Wonder if that holds together and clips us midday?

    • WxWatcher says:

      That particular feature will probably not be much of a factor for SNE. Your winds will be more synoptically driven. That line has been impressive though. It looks like Leesburg, VA (northwest of DC) took a direct hit from a tornado associated with that line earlier.

  8. WxWatcher says:

    Thanks TK.

    Watch the temperatures. Where it stays cool and stable, the wind will not mix down, but where you get that burst of warmth, damaging winds are likely. It does seem like the low track has shifted southeast a bit, which is good at least in terms of limiting the geographic area under the greatest wind threat. Metro Boston may miss out on the worst, though it will be close. Southeast MA still looks like fair game for extremely strong winds. It’s all moving through down here now; keep an eye on our observations (like that one Tom posted from Lancaster) for an idea of what is heading your way. Odds are far southeast New England will experience worse than whatever we do.

  9. Tom says:

    Central NY State, most obs reporting heavy snow.

    Dark green banding on the radar, with temps in the mid 20s.

    My guess is that is 2-4 inch rates per hour.

    • Joshua says:

      I gently weep. It’s nice to imagine, though.

      I’m headed to Philadelphia by train, and then with siblings to my mother’s grave in central Pennsylvania. The tiny village my mother was from may have some snow from this system. It’s in the hills and they tend to have much more snow than Philadelphia.

      • Vicki says:

        Safe travels, Joshua. A very bittersweet trip. I’m glad you will be with your siblings. Hugs to you all.

  10. Vicki says:

    Thank you, TK. May I assume that lower wind expectations on coast means lower here also?

  11. Tom says:

    Dover, Delaware :

    Wind SW at 43, gusting to 59

  12. Philip says:

    Is it looking less likely that the warm front even makes it to Boston at all?

  13. Captain Fantastic says:

    I very quick look at the latest HRRR and it seems to me that Middleborough and Plymouth are in the shading (it’s hard for me to see) that is up to 60 knots which is 69 mph at 3 pm. Here come my students back from lunch!

  14. Mark says:

    Thanks TK.

    Drizzle and occasional light rain here in Manchester CT. 40F. Winds are dead calm.

    Pressure at BDL as of 10:50AM is 28.94 in (980.1 mb)

  15. Mark says:

    Binghamton, NY reporting Heavy Snow, Thunderstorm, Blowing Snow and Freezing Fog with 23F temp at the latest observation.

  16. Mark says:

    Utica, NY live webcams….

    https://www.cnyhomepage.com/weather/eyenet/

    WHITEOUT!

  17. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Today will be yet another example of why forecasting is far more than reading model info…

    • Oceanair says:

      And yet another example of why I love our New England weather – we’re getting everything today! Wish I could be outside…

  18. Tom says:

    Warm sector slowly proceeding north, where it has, its breezy !

    New Bedford : S wind at 29, gusting to 45

  19. Tom says:

    I forget if its Teterboro, NY or NJ … regardless, its the lowest pressure at noon I could find.

    28.78 inches or 973 mb

  20. Captain Fantastic says:

    Winds really picked up suddenly here in Middleboro in the last 30 minutes.

  21. Mark says:

    Winds still dead calm here in northern CT.

    Pressure at BDL down to 28.76 in (974.1 mb) as of 10 min ago….

  22. Mark says:

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    2h

    An intense severe weather outbreak around DC this morning with damaging winds and tornadoes was exceptionally poorly forecast. Here’s the SPC outlook just a few hours before. These low CAPE/high shear events are notoriously difficult to forecast – we have to get better.

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1225804161238913024?s=20

  23. Mark says:

    Highest wind gust so far 55mph on MV…

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    1h

    Some gusts so far…should add about 20mph this afternoon

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1225827561831305216?s=20

  24. Mark says:

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    3h

    Now that the #PolarVortex (PV) has weakened back to normal GFS is predicting that the PV will once again strengthen pulling all the cold air in the stratosphere into the Arctic. At this rate the Final Warming won’t happen until July! RIP #winter 2019/20.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1225786741493321732?s=20

  25. JpDave says:

    Just broke out into partial sunshine and the temperature jumped to 46 (so far).
    Hmmm, wonder if this means we get the wind here. Latest 18z hrrr says 44 knots or
    50.6 mph.

  26. Mark says:

    Meanwhile, on the South Pole, warmest temperature in recorded history reported on Antarctica….

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/february-2020-temperature-record-antarctica-fa

  27. South Central says:

    Temp has gone up 5 degrees here in about 15 min. Warm sector coming through now. Just bottomed out pressure wise @ 28.660” which correlates to 970.53 millibars, that’s a cat 2 hurricane.

  28. Mark says:

    WOW at the warm frontal passage at TF Green Airport….

    11:50 AM – 40 degrees and calm wind
    12:50 AM – 57 degrees (broke record high) and wind gusting to 52 mph

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1225847302079832064?s=20

  29. Mark says:

    Sun just broke out here in Manchester CT. Now getting very windy.

  30. JpDave says:

    Tight wind gradient. 19Z hrrr at 3PM

    https://imgur.com/a/sUrtHzU

  31. JpDave says:

    There was virtually no wind here and then BAM!!
    Peak wind gust recently at Logan was 50 mph, so it is here!!

    Temp has risen to 53. Pressure at 970.4 mb, beginning to rise ever so slightly.

  32. JimmyJames says:

    Snow flakes missing in with the rain where I am.

  33. South shore Kid says:

    Trees & power outages have already started on the south shore . Multiple reports of downed trees .

  34. Vicki says:

    Power out in south sutton

  35. SClarke says:

    Wow! I was just outside getting some firewood, and the conditions were beautiful. There were huge snow flakes falling, the trees were coated with ice, and the sun was just breaking through. It was an amazing few minutes before the snow ended.

  36. JpDave says:

    Logan gusted to 53 mph. The lights blinked here in JP.

  37. JpDave says:

    Temp back down to 47 here.

  38. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Wind event unfolding as expected. And I’d like to thank WxWatcher for this excellent explanation of this yesterday. I’ve been very busy between working and getting things done for mom before her treatment that I have kind of short-changed the blog a bit.

    I just left one of my banks and told the teller to expect to be hearing stronger wind gusts by 4PM. Right on time. It’s really picking up here in Woburn now.

  39. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Regarding J.C.’s tweet about the PV: That’s all well and good but the AO is not the only driving force in winter, so to say RIP winter 2019/2020 even here on February 7 is far too soon.

    • Philip says:

      I can understand why he’s probably very disappointed since he always forecasts such high snow totals every year. “Conservative” is certainly not in his weather DNA, so to speak.

  40. JpDave says:

    down to 41 here

  41. Mark says:

    Wind blown snow now in Coventry CT, down to the mid 30s

  42. Philip says:

    Full moon rising in the east and still light out. :-)

    If only our mornings would start showing some early light. :-(

  43. WxWatcher says:

    Highest gust confirmed by NWS Boston so far is 77mph. I do see several unconfirmed ones above that, with the highest being a 95mph gust near P-town, but not sure of the reliability of the instrument. A very impressive event. Power outages are piling up unfortunately.

    • South shore Kid says:

      Wx I know this goes all night thanks to the awesome information from you & Tk I’m in pembroke south of Boston if not familiar. We are having multiple issues down here for my general info give me a timeframe for at least the damaging wind to stop

      • WxWatcher says:

        The worst of the wind has passed now. It’ll stay breezy (30-40mph) for another few hours and diminish further later on tonight. The vast majority of the damage has already been done. From here on it would just be any trees damaged earlier coming down.

  44. South Central says:

    Thank god there are no leaves on the trees or this could be much worse.

  45. Retrac says:

    The wind knocking ice off the trees. OMG is legit brutal. Actually the correct term would be launching chunks of ice.

  46. retrac says:

    Boy is New Brunswick going to get a quick ass kicking from this. It’s just not our winter.

  47. Vicki says:

    Our trampoline flew across two yards. Thank God it didn’t injure people or property.

    Power still out :)

    • Mark says:

      Wow, I hope it is still salvageable! Glad that no one got hurt and happy to hear you finally lost power!

      • Vicki says:

        Mark your last comment made me smile.

        Power is back but it was just fun.

        I’m not sure if it is destroyed. SIL and daughter carried back here but it is upside down. Not sure if nets survived

  48. Mark says:

    Here in northern CT, for a 970 mb bomb passing overhead, it was a rather benign storm. We had light rain, drizzle and calm winds the first half of the day. Winds were akin to a run of the mill nor’easter for a few hours in the PM. Wildest part was around 5 when we had a burst of wind blown snow and it was blizzard like for a little while. RI and E MA by far took the brunt of this one.

  49. South Central says:

    Enjoy the unplugging of all the modern conveniences Vicki. !! :)

    • Vicki says:

      I did. I had my new Bluetooth sonos playing music and all lights out. And of course a Manhattan. But power is back :(

  50. Vicki says:

    My daughter posted our trampoline flying across yards and ch 7 wants to use it

  51. Tom says:

    https://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/fd/rb.html

    Soon to be landfalling hurricane in NW Australia.

  52. Philip says:

    Wow. I just noticed this morning that Logan tied a record high temp of 56 (1925, 1878) yesterday.

    • JpDave says:

      fake temperature.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      A quick analysis of high temp profiles in the area says that yesterday’s high temp at Logan was probably 54 at most.

      • JpDave says:

        I topped out at 53 here in JP.

        • Philip says:

          I keep forgetting the bad thermometer at Logan. Still goes into the books anyway, unfortunately.

          • Woods Hill Weather says:

            Yes it does. It’s like standing and watching a barn burn and not being able to do anything about it.

            I think the most disappointing thing of all was finding out they feel error of up to 5 degrees is acceptable. I cannot even imagine remotely agreeing that this is acceptable. It’s not.

  53. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post!