DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
A lot will go on today in the weather department. We start the day with very little wind, just a northerly drift of air in interior areas and a variable breeze nearer the coastline, an overcast with areas of fog, and ribbons of rainfall, some pockets of freezing rain over interior areas where surface temperatures have slipped back below freezing. And big changes take place like a chaotic crowd of kindergarten kids running around at recess as the 2nd in a 1-2 low pressure punch comes by. This low is going to first cause the region to warm up, especially southern and eastern areas, although the colder interior areas will eventually warm to above freezing and alleviate the icy issue. Our precipitation from this passing 2nd low will produce its heaviest rain over Cape Cod and keep an area of heavy sleet and snow far to the north (big snow in some mountains and across the Canadian border). As the elongated low center starts to tighten up as it meets perfect conditions for rapid strengthening just as it is crossing southeastern New England during the day today, one more batch of rain showers may occur, and a couple of those may be heavy and even contain hail and thunder (though that will be the exception not the rule). The big story will become the wind as this system gets just beyond the region. First, a westerly wind will be felt increasing rapidly near the South Coast, and then as the low center departs a northwesterly wind will erupt across the region, strongest over eastern and southern areas where gusts above 40 MPH are likely, gust above 50 MPH are very possible, and gusts above 60 MPH are not out of the question. This will last several hours into this evening before the wind starts to scale back gradually, though this diminishment will take much of the day Saturday to complete itself. And Saturday will feel pretty cold as the temperatures, which plunges to the 20s tonight, struggles to get back to freezing, with a gusty breeze to add to that – something we have not seen too much of during the course of this winter so fair. Sunday’s weather while more tranquil will still be cold, and a weak area of low pressure will travel south of the region tossing a shield of high cloudiness across the sky to filter the sun. By Monday, another low heads from the Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence Valley, and a morning warm frontal passage may yield brief snow/sleet/rain for some areas before we are in the warm sector with a rain shower risk and milder air. The cold front trailing from the low will cross the region Monday night and a wave of low pressure traveling along it should stay south of the region Tuesday, but may be close enough to bring some rain to the South Coast.
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and periods of rain morning, with pockets of freezing rain north central MA and interior southern NH. Breaking clouds with a few rain showers, possibly briefly heavy with a slight risk of thunder and hail through mid afternoon, then a sun/cloud mix later in the day. Highs 38-43 southwestern NH and north central MA, 44-49 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH coastal areas and N under 10 MPH interior morning, becoming W then NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH except 25-35 MPH South Coast during this afternoon, with late-day gusts above 40-55 MPH and possibly 55-65 MPH, with higher elevations and some South Coast areas seeing isolated higher gusts still.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, strongest in eastern areas, diminishing somewhat overnight. Wind chill near 0 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 22-29 evening, rising back to the 30s overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/sleet/snow possible favoring northern areas early, then a chance of rain showers mainly in the afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers evening. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain South Coast. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Active pattern and near the border of cold north and mild south so any types of precipitation may occur, with current timing bringing threats through the region late February 12 into February 13, and again by the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Similar pattern with episodes of unsettled weather and variable temperatures.