Friday Forecast

111 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
A lot will go on today in the weather department. We start the day with very little wind, just a northerly drift of air in interior areas and a variable breeze nearer the coastline, an overcast with areas of fog, and ribbons of rainfall, some pockets of freezing rain over interior areas where surface temperatures have slipped back below freezing. And big changes take place like a chaotic crowd of kindergarten kids running around at recess as the 2nd in a 1-2 low pressure punch comes by. This low is going to first cause the region to warm up, especially southern and eastern areas, although the colder interior areas will eventually warm to above freezing and alleviate the icy issue. Our precipitation from this passing 2nd low will produce its heaviest rain over Cape Cod and keep an area of heavy sleet and snow far to the north (big snow in some mountains and across the Canadian border). As the elongated low center starts to tighten up as it meets perfect conditions for rapid strengthening just as it is crossing southeastern New England during the day today, one more batch of rain showers may occur, and a couple of those may be heavy and even contain hail and thunder (though that will be the exception not the rule). The big story will become the wind as this system gets just beyond the region. First, a westerly wind will be felt increasing rapidly near the South Coast, and then as the low center departs a northwesterly wind will erupt across the region, strongest over eastern and southern areas where gusts above 40 MPH are likely, gust above 50 MPH are very possible, and gusts above 60 MPH are not out of the question. This will last several hours into this evening before the wind starts to scale back gradually, though this diminishment will take much of the day Saturday to complete itself. And Saturday will feel pretty cold as the temperatures, which plunges to the 20s tonight, struggles to get back to freezing, with a gusty breeze to add to that – something we have not seen too much of during the course of this winter so fair. Sunday’s weather while more tranquil will still be cold, and a weak area of low pressure will travel south of the region tossing a shield of high cloudiness across the sky to filter the sun. By Monday, another low heads from the Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence Valley, and a morning warm frontal passage may yield brief snow/sleet/rain for some areas before we are in the warm sector with a rain shower risk and milder air. The cold front trailing from the low will cross the region Monday night and a wave of low pressure traveling along it should stay south of the region Tuesday, but may be close enough to bring some rain to the South Coast.
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and periods of rain morning, with pockets of freezing rain north central MA and interior southern NH. Breaking clouds with a few rain showers, possibly briefly heavy with a slight risk of thunder and hail through mid afternoon, then a sun/cloud mix later in the day. Highs 38-43 southwestern NH and north central MA, 44-49 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH coastal areas and N under 10 MPH interior morning, becoming W then NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH except 25-35 MPH South Coast during this afternoon, with late-day gusts above 40-55 MPH and possibly 55-65 MPH, with higher elevations and some South Coast areas seeing isolated higher gusts still.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, strongest in eastern areas, diminishing somewhat overnight. Wind chill near 0 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 22-29 evening, rising back to the 30s overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/sleet/snow possible favoring northern areas early, then a chance of rain showers mainly in the afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers evening. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain South Coast. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Active pattern and near the border of cold north and mild south so any types of precipitation may occur, with current timing bringing threats through the region late February 12 into February 13, and again by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Similar pattern with episodes of unsettled weather and variable temperatures.

111 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Safe to assume the first half of February will be the whole month at this point? By that I mean the dry conditions that were pushed out a few weeks may not materialize?

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Persistent fairly heavy drizzle falling in the City.
    Temp about 36.

    Hrrr has backed off to max wind gust for Boston of 39 knots or about 44 mph.
    Nams even lower, nearing 40 mph.

    Not that this wouldn’t be windy, but not the alarming gusts these models were
    showing last night.

    What’s up with that? The low tracking farther South and thus strongest winds
    pushed more to the SE?

    1. Perhaps its reflective of the cooler, stable airmass hanging a bit further south and east than anticipated by yesterday’s models.

      Certainly, to mix the 75 to 80 kt low level jet to the surface, that has a chance to happen where temps rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

  7. Per 9 am obs:

    Lancaster PA : 28.89 inches of mercury which equates to 978 mb

    Reported weather : Squall, west wind at 43, gusting to 58

    Notable squall line down by DC and Baltimore. Wonder if that holds together and clips us midday?

    1. That particular feature will probably not be much of a factor for SNE. Your winds will be more synoptically driven. That line has been impressive though. It looks like Leesburg, VA (northwest of DC) took a direct hit from a tornado associated with that line earlier.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Watch the temperatures. Where it stays cool and stable, the wind will not mix down, but where you get that burst of warmth, damaging winds are likely. It does seem like the low track has shifted southeast a bit, which is good at least in terms of limiting the geographic area under the greatest wind threat. Metro Boston may miss out on the worst, though it will be close. Southeast MA still looks like fair game for extremely strong winds. It’s all moving through down here now; keep an eye on our observations (like that one Tom posted from Lancaster) for an idea of what is heading your way. Odds are far southeast New England will experience worse than whatever we do.

    2. Thanks WxWatcher.
      Good to know that you confirmed by suspicion as to why the models
      backed off on the winds for Boston Metro area.

  10. Central NY State, most obs reporting heavy snow.

    Dark green banding on the radar, with temps in the mid 20s.

    My guess is that is 2-4 inch rates per hour.

    1. I gently weep. It’s nice to imagine, though.

      I’m headed to Philadelphia by train, and then with siblings to my mother’s grave in central Pennsylvania. The tiny village my mother was from may have some snow from this system. It’s in the hills and they tend to have much more snow than Philadelphia.

      1. Safe travels, Joshua. A very bittersweet trip. Iā€™m glad you will be with your siblings. Hugs to you all.

  14. I very quick look at the latest HRRR and it seems to me that Middleborough and Plymouth are in the shading (it’s hard for me to see) that is up to 60 knots which is 69 mph at 3 pm. Here come my students back from lunch!

  15. Thanks TK.

    Drizzle and occasional light rain here in Manchester CT. 40F. Winds are dead calm.

    Pressure at BDL as of 10:50AM is 28.94 in (980.1 mb)

  16. Binghamton, NY reporting Heavy Snow, Thunderstorm, Blowing Snow and Freezing Fog with 23F temp at the latest observation.

    1. And yet another example of why I love our New England weather – we’re getting everything today! Wish I could be outside…

  20. I forget if its Teterboro, NY or NJ … regardless, its the lowest pressure at noon I could find.

    28.78 inches or 973 mb

  28. Just broke out into partial sunshine and the temperature jumped to 46 (so far).
    Hmmm, wonder if this means we get the wind here. Latest 18z hrrr says 44 knots or
    50.6 mph.

  30. Temp has gone up 5 degrees here in about 15 min. Warm sector coming through now. Just bottomed out pressure wise @ 28.660ā€ which correlates to 970.53 millibars, thatā€™s a cat 2 hurricane.

  36. There was virtually no wind here and then BAM!!
    Peak wind gust recently at Logan was 50 mph, so it is here!!

    Temp has risen to 53. Pressure at 970.4 mb, beginning to rise ever so slightly.

  38. Trees & power outages have already started on the south shore . Multiple reports of downed trees .

  40. Wow! I was just outside getting some firewood, and the conditions were beautiful. There were huge snow flakes falling, the trees were coated with ice, and the sun was just breaking through. It was an amazing few minutes before the snow ended.

  43. Wind event unfolding as expected. And I’d like to thank WxWatcher for this excellent explanation of this yesterday. I’ve been very busy between working and getting things done for mom before her treatment that I have kind of short-changed the blog a bit.

    I just left one of my banks and told the teller to expect to be hearing stronger wind gusts by 4PM. Right on time. It’s really picking up here in Woburn now.

  44. Regarding J.C.’s tweet about the PV: That’s all well and good but the AO is not the only driving force in winter, so to say RIP winter 2019/2020 even here on February 7 is far too soon.

    1. I can understand why heā€™s probably very disappointed since he always forecasts such high snow totals every year. ā€œConservativeā€ is certainly not in his weather DNA, so to speak.

  47. Full moon rising in the east and still light out. šŸ™‚

    If only our mornings would start showing some early light. šŸ™

  48. Highest gust confirmed by NWS Boston so far is 77mph. I do see several unconfirmed ones above that, with the highest being a 95mph gust near P-town, but not sure of the reliability of the instrument. A very impressive event. Power outages are piling up unfortunately.

    1. Wx I know this goes all night thanks to the awesome information from you & Tk Iā€™m in pembroke south of Boston if not familiar. We are having multiple issues down here for my general info give me a timeframe for at least the damaging wind to stop

      1. The worst of the wind has passed now. Itā€™ll stay breezy (30-40mph) for another few hours and diminish further later on tonight. The vast majority of the damage has already been done. From here on it would just be any trees damaged earlier coming down.

  50. The wind knocking ice off the trees. OMG is legit brutal. Actually the correct term would be launching chunks of ice.

  52. Our trampoline flew across two yards. Thank God it didnā€™t injure people or property.

    Power still out šŸ™‚

    1. Wow, I hope it is still salvageable! Glad that no one got hurt and happy to hear you finally lost power!

      1. Mark your last comment made me smile.

        Power is back but it was just fun.

        Iā€™m not sure if it is destroyed. SIL and daughter carried back here but it is upside down. Not sure if nets survived

  53. Here in northern CT, for a 970 mb bomb passing overhead, it was a rather benign storm. We had light rain, drizzle and calm winds the first half of the day. Winds were akin to a run of the mill norā€™easter for a few hours in the PM. Wildest part was around 5 when we had a burst of wind blown snow and it was blizzard like for a little while. RI and E MA by far took the brunt of this one.

      3. Yes the Euro has been on and off showing a threat that day as well. Not going to get excited unless it is still there inside 4 days!

    1. I did. I had my new Bluetooth sonos playing music and all lights out. And of course a Manhattan. But power is back šŸ™

            1. I didnā€™t. We had lost power by then and I was meeting another grand at her bus in Uxbridge. We didnā€™t see it. Two men in neighborhood got it and turned upside down. Daughter had no clue until they came to door. The video is from the ring camera

    2. A quick analysis of high temp profiles in the area says that yesterday’s high temp at Logan was probably 54 at most.

          1. Yes it does. It’s like standing and watching a barn burn and not being able to do anything about it.

            I think the most disappointing thing of all was finding out they feel error of up to 5 degrees is acceptable. I cannot even imagine remotely agreeing that this is acceptable. It’s not.

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