Saturday Forecast

9:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
High pressure will be the dominant player this weekend, which will be cold and dry for the most part. But each day will have a possible yet minor exception. First, we’re still in the pressure gradient this morning between the approaching high and departing low that impacted the region yesterday, and there will be just enough low level moisture to pop some cumulus clouds and a remote risk that one of them may grow just enough to produce an isolated snow flurry today, mainly north of Boston, but the risk is tiny and fleeting. And on Sunday, the fragmented remains of what was originally being watched for a possible snowstorm will bring some cloudiness into the region and a remote risk of a few stray snowflakes, this time favoring areas south and west of Boston. Despite the weekend break we’re not out of the woods for weather action, and before this 5 day period is up we’ll have a low pressure area travel eastward but pass north of here later Monday, dragging a warm front / cold front combo through, with a risk of some interior snow/sleet and coastal rain from the warm front in the early hours of Monday, with rain showers from the cold front during the day Monday as we get a shot of milder air post warm front / pre cold front. The cold front will settle just to the south of the region Tuesday at which time a wave of low pressure will be moving eastward along it, passing just south of New England. This won’t be a strong storm until it gets well beyond this area but it may spread a shield of rain/mix into parts of southern New England for several hours Tuesday. A little slower evolution and it may end up as a complete miss. So there will be a tad bit of fine-tuning to do with that one. High pressure moves in with dry and chilly weather for Tuesday night into Wednesday, but we may already be seeing a rapid advance of cloudiness during Wednesday ahead of the next weather system…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Remote risk of a brief snow flurry north of Boston. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts this morning, diminishing this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Remote risk of a touch of light snow south and west of Boston afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Remote risk of a touch of light snow south of Boston evening. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a period of snow/sleet interior, rain coast early, then occasional rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, then SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers early. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain/mix especially South Coast. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Active pattern with a couple of opportunities for significant winter weather events mainly early and again later in the period. Not sure how these play out yet but we’ll be in that battle zone between building cold to the north and continued mild weather to the south. There is quite a bit of potential for extended unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
One or two more opportunities here for messy winter weather but far too early for details.

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78 Responses to Saturday Forecast

  1. Woods Hill Weather says:

    CPC trends colder in 6-10 / 8-14.

  2. North says:

    Thanks TK.

  3. Captain Fantastic says:

    Thanks, TK!

  4. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Between midnight & 1 a.m. this morning I was traveling east along Route 2 from Acton to Woburn and had occasional light snow showers along the way, including here when I got home, but it was not heavy enough to show on the ground.

  5. South shore Kid says:

    Thanks Tk power just restored & it was out since 4:30 yesterday . Thankfully the damaging winds did not last all night because the short time it was here it caused a lot of issues down here with trees down and lines down although it remained breezy throughout the night it was not what it was late afternoon. Great job to Tk & Wx.

  6. Philip says:

    The 6-10/8-14 May be colder but the SE ridge still strong as ever. Probably just messy events ahead (at best) as opposed to all/mostly snow events.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      That depends. A SE ridge does not automatically mean everything we have here will be mix. I can pick out a couple opportunities for fairly widespread snow events if things line up.

  7. Sue says:

    Thanks TK. Still without power in Halifax.

  8. Mark says:

    Thanks TK.

    Had a light dusting of snow here as well when we got this am.

    The mountains of northern VT really piled up the snow between these two storm systems and some follow up upslope snows. 21” of new snow at Stowe in the last 3 days.

  9. Oceanair says:

    Thanks, TK.

  10. Mark says:

    The models are in fairly good agreement this AM on the winter storm threat for Thursday. 12z GFS and ICON have the system passing to our south with an all snow event for most. If those runs verified, advisory to warning criteria snows, esp south of the Pike.

    00z Euro has the storm as well but has it cutting to our west with snow to mix to rain.

  11. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

  12. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks TK
    This day in the weather history the Blizzard of 2013 was getting started. The biggest snowstorm of my life with 30 inches. There was a band of snow that produced 6 inches of snow in an hour for eastern parts of CT. Truly a remarkable storm and I will never forget the 8 foot snow bank at the end of my mom and stepdad’s driveway and seeing people snow blow their streets to get out.

  13. Mark says:

    The is the scene in northern GA this AM (as most of us in SNE look out at our mostly brown lawns)….

    https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1226166189124136960?s=21

  14. Mark says:

    Crazy video of the CAT 1 hurricane force winds coming on shore yesterday in Newport RI. Ironic that skies were sunny at the time!

    https://twitter.com/nbc10_mark/status/1225947294127837185?s=21

  15. JpDave says:

    Good morning and thank you TK.

    Just came in from being out. Beautiful out. Feels warm, until that wind cuts through to the bones. brrrr

    I’ll believe Thursday when I see it. Can’t take another disappointment.

  16. Philip says:

    TK – Were those 2016 blizzard conditions a textbook example of a Norlun?

  17. Tom says:

    Euro still looking like a warm mid week solution.

    Given persistence and likely convection to be involved when the system is southwest of us, a stronger SE ridge with an inland track, I think, should probably receive more weight as an outcome, than a colder system.

  18. JpDave says:

    As Tom was alluding to, the Euro CUTS the Thursday system through the Eastern
    Lakes.

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020812/120/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    When you’re going bad, you’re going bad! Trend is your friend. I’d be shocked
    if this ends up an all/mostly snow event. I suppose there is still enough time for
    things to change. We’ll see.

  19. JpDave says:

    I guess this shows the battle ground between the SE ridge and Cold Canadian Air.

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020020812/240/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

  20. Longshot says:

    Trivia Quiz.
    What is the average number of days Boston stays below freezing each winter?

    A. 15
    B. 21
    C. 26
    D. 30

    Answer later today.

  21. JimmyJames says:

    B

  22. Longshot says:

    The B’s 0-0 after 1st versus Arizona, BUT B’s committed a major so Arizona will be on the power play for 4 min 40 seconds at start of the 2nd.

  23. Longshot says:

    My B’s. … 4-2 and as always a slow start but looking like champs in the later periods.

  24. retrac says:

    18Z GFS, the whole of the U.S. looks mild. Even Canada not that cold. Something to watch

  25. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Today’s update will be closer to 10 or a bit after…

  26. JpDave says:

    We had a coyote in our yard last evening! Yup, right here in JP, which is Boston.
    Who would have ever thought that?????

    • Vicki says:

      Cool. Did you get a pic or was it too dark.

      • Philip says:

        In Dorchester I’ve had skunks, raccoons and a turkey. I’ve always feared if I ever ran into a coyote since I always leave for work by 6:00AM and the streets are still relatively deserted and VERY dark. No way I could ever outrun one.

        If they are now in JP, my neighborhood won’t be far behind.

        • JpDave says:

          I think you are correct. In fact, they may already be there and just haven’t run into one yet. I’d be on the lookout for sure. Carry a golf club with you, a 5 or 6 iron should do the trick.

        • Vicki says:

          Ours ignore us. You don’t want to startle one. I have our lights set to go on before SIL leaves. A good number are not pure coyotes. We have more Coywolves and coydogs. We used to have one in framingham that sat in our neighbors driveway around school bus arrival time.

          One caveat is that this is mating season. They can be a bit more aggressive. On the whole it is very rare for a coyote to attack a human.

      • JpDave says:

        Nope. Sorry.

    • South shore Kid says:

      There all over the city . You know what’s around work really bad is rabbits

  27. Philip says:

    If we only had a nice, deep snowpack like we should have this time of year, these creatures would be burying themselves underground where they belong.

  28. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Re: Animals.
    Yup. We’re pushing them out of their spaces and right into our back yards. And if it’s a “problem”, it’s one of our own creation, so we’ll have to learn to live with them because they are certainly learning to live with us. 😉

    Updating now… :)

  29. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post!