Saturday Forecast

78 Comments

9:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
High pressure will be the dominant player this weekend, which will be cold and dry for the most part. But each day will have a possible yet minor exception. First, we’re still in the pressure gradient this morning between the approaching high and departing low that impacted the region yesterday, and there will be just enough low level moisture to pop some cumulus clouds and a remote risk that one of them may grow just enough to produce an isolated snow flurry today, mainly north of Boston, but the risk is tiny and fleeting. And on Sunday, the fragmented remains of what was originally being watched for a possible snowstorm will bring some cloudiness into the region and a remote risk of a few stray snowflakes, this time favoring areas south and west of Boston. Despite the weekend break we’re not out of the woods for weather action, and before this 5 day period is up we’ll have a low pressure area travel eastward but pass north of here later Monday, dragging a warm front / cold front combo through, with a risk of some interior snow/sleet and coastal rain from the warm front in the early hours of Monday, with rain showers from the cold front during the day Monday as we get a shot of milder air post warm front / pre cold front. The cold front will settle just to the south of the region Tuesday at which time a wave of low pressure will be moving eastward along it, passing just south of New England. This won’t be a strong storm until it gets well beyond this area but it may spread a shield of rain/mix into parts of southern New England for several hours Tuesday. A little slower evolution and it may end up as a complete miss. So there will be a tad bit of fine-tuning to do with that one. High pressure moves in with dry and chilly weather for Tuesday night into Wednesday, but we may already be seeing a rapid advance of cloudiness during Wednesday ahead of the next weather system…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Remote risk of a brief snow flurry north of Boston. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts this morning, diminishing this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Remote risk of a touch of light snow south and west of Boston afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Remote risk of a touch of light snow south of Boston evening. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a period of snow/sleet interior, rain coast early, then occasional rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, then SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers early. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain/mix especially South Coast. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Active pattern with a couple of opportunities for significant winter weather events mainly early and again later in the period. Not sure how these play out yet but we’ll be in that battle zone between building cold to the north and continued mild weather to the south. There is quite a bit of potential for extended unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
One or two more opportunities here for messy winter weather but far too early for details.

78 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  4. Between midnight & 1 a.m. this morning I was traveling east along Route 2 from Acton to Woburn and had occasional light snow showers along the way, including here when I got home, but it was not heavy enough to show on the ground.

  5. Thanks Tk power just restored & it was out since 4:30 yesterday . Thankfully the damaging winds did not last all night because the short time it was here it caused a lot of issues down here with trees down and lines down although it remained breezy throughout the night it was not what it was late afternoon. Great job to Tk & Wx.

    1. This is a tough event for power outages because there are so many individual lines taken down by tree limbs, etc. that it takes a long time for them to get them all back up. Glad you’re back online and at least we didn’t get nailed with a big time arctic blast. Chilly enough but it could have been worse for those without power. Hopefully the rest of those affected are back up by today.

      1. And a lot of folks don’t get it ( not here ) during these storms the Elecritc Conpany can only do so much the buckets cannot go up during high winds it is is a safety regulation.

      1. It still would have been confined mainly to areas south of Boston. Most of the wind gusts to the north were only marginal for taking trees down. But it would have been more widespread down there, yes.

  6. The 6-10/8-14 May be colder but the SE ridge still strong as ever. Probably just messy events ahead (at best) as opposed to all/mostly snow events.

    1. That depends. A SE ridge does not automatically mean everything we have here will be mix. I can pick out a couple opportunities for fairly widespread snow events if things line up.

    3. Hope it’s back soon sue I know Parts of pembroke still out . We got luck down here that damaging wind did not go all night .

  8. Thanks TK.

    Had a light dusting of snow here as well when we got this am.

    The mountains of northern VT really piled up the snow between these two storm systems and some follow up upslope snows. 21” of new snow at Stowe in the last 3 days.

  10. The models are in fairly good agreement this AM on the winter storm threat for Thursday. 12z GFS and ICON have the system passing to our south with an all snow event for most. If those runs verified, advisory to warning criteria snows, esp south of the Pike.

    00z Euro has the storm as well but has it cutting to our west with snow to mix to rain.

  13. Thanks TK
    This day in the weather history the Blizzard of 2013 was getting started. The biggest snowstorm of my life with 30 inches. There was a band of snow that produced 6 inches of snow in an hour for eastern parts of CT. Truly a remarkable storm and I will never forget the 8 foot snow bank at the end of my mom and stepdad’s driveway and seeing people snow blow their streets to get out.

    3. On this date in 2016 we also had blizzard conditions in eastern MA from a storm a few hundred miles offshore with a huge circulation.

  16. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Just came in from being out. Beautiful out. Feels warm, until that wind cuts through to the bones. brrrr

    I’ll believe Thursday when I see it. Can’t take another disappointment.

  19. Euro still looking like a warm mid week solution.

    Given persistence and likely convection to be involved when the system is southwest of us, a stronger SE ridge with an inland track, I think, should probably receive more weight as an outcome, than a colder system.

    1. The 500 mb heights on the SE ridge have been impressive.

      The EURO at 120 hrs projects 591 dm over the Bahamas, 591 dm !!!!!!

    2. Let’s hope it’s even a little stronger when it cuts too. No CAD here please. Push that warm air right up. If it’s not our winter then I root for mild rain versus sleet and ice thank you.

  23. Trivia Quiz.
    What is the average number of days Boston stays below freezing each winter?

    A. 15
    B. 21
    C. 26
    D. 30

    Answer later today.

  25. The B’s 0-0 after 1st versus Arizona, BUT B’s committed a major so Arizona will be on the power play for 4 min 40 seconds at start of the 2nd.

  30. We had a coyote in our yard last evening! Yup, right here in JP, which is Boston.
    Who would have ever thought that?????

      1. In Dorchester I’ve had skunks, raccoons and a turkey. I’ve always feared if I ever ran into a coyote since I always leave for work by 6:00AM and the streets are still relatively deserted and VERY dark. No way I could ever outrun one.

        If they are now in JP, my neighborhood won’t be far behind.

        1. I think you are correct. In fact, they may already be there and just haven’t run into one yet. I’d be on the lookout for sure. Carry a golf club with you, a 5 or 6 iron should do the trick.

        2. Ours ignore us. You don’t want to startle one. I have our lights set to go on before SIL leaves. A good number are not pure coyotes. We have more Coywolves and coydogs. We used to have one in framingham that sat in our neighbors driveway around school bus arrival time.

          One caveat is that this is mating season. They can be a bit more aggressive. On the whole it is very rare for a coyote to attack a human.

  31. If we only had a nice, deep snowpack like we should have this time of year, these creatures would be burying themselves underground where they belong.

  32. Re: Animals.
    Yup. We’re pushing them out of their spaces and right into our back yards. And if it’s a “problem”, it’s one of our own creation, so we’ll have to learn to live with them because they are certainly learning to live with us. 😉

    Updating now… 🙂

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