Sunday Forecast

80 Comments

11:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Late update today so quick and to the point. A weakening system approaches today and may cause a touch of light snow mostly west and north of Boston, but city flakes can’t be ruled out either. Then a low pressure area will fly down the St. Lawrence Valley then cut across northern Maine Monday, and its warm front will bring some rain and snow to the region Monday morning followed by its cold front and a few rain showers Monday afternoon. This cold front comes to a halt just after passing by and a wave of low pressure will run along it. It’s a close call whether this passes just too far south or close enough to bring its precipitation shield into southeastern New England, but right now I’m leaning toward the “bring it in” scenario, although the air should be mild enough for rain, and not snow. That departs and we get a high pressure area bringing slightly colder air in for Wednesday, setting the stage for the next low to come along Thursday, with marginal temperatures, and the precipitation type question to be answered as we get closer to the event.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a touch of light snow. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Remote risk of a touch of light snow south of Boston evening. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a period of snow/sleet interior, rain coast early, then rain tapering off from west to east in the morning. A few rain showers possible from northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, SW 5-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH mid morning into afternoon, shifting to NW later.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain southern NH and northern MA. Rain likely elsewhere. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 20-27. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast with rain/mix/snow (details to be determined later). Highs 32-39. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Dry and seasonably cold weather February 14-15. Watching the remainder of the period for an unsettled weather threat with any type of precipitation possible.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
One or two more opportunities here for messy winter weather but far too early for details.

80 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. No prob Bob! (yes I know your name isn’t Bob…it’s a quote from “Bob The Builder”). 😉

      1. Well, thanks for trying. Seriously, I am getting ready for SPRING!
        Not sure Thursday does the job, although there may be some
        front end snow. We’ll see I guess.

  3. I noticed yesterday that this was the only media source that mentioned light snow flurries in the forecast, when nobody else did, no tv, no radio, not even national weather service. I was traveling around the Mass NH border and saw flurries a few times, not sure if it happened in Boston or not, just wanted to say nice job!!

    1. Well, hello Pizza. Forgive me if I am incorrect…I’m old….but are you new to the WHW family. If so, it is great to have you post here. If not, it is wonderful to see your comments.

      And as to your comment. We have been flurrying in South Sutton on and off for a bit. Nice to see!!

      1. longtime lurker, first time poster, but I have known TK for a long time. Yes we have more flakes flying where I am now, nothing heavy.

  4. Good morning and Thank you, TK!!! Please say hi to your mom. Enjoy your Sunday morning errands with her 🙂

  5. Thanks TK!

    It figures that the “wet” scenario holds for tomorrow morning. If it was cold enough for snow that front would be halfway to Bermuda by sunrise. 😉

    A stalled front with cold over us…we can only dream. 🙂

    1. We’ve missed more events that would have been rain this season than ones that would have been snow. 🙂

  6. Answer to yesterday’s quiz.
    What is the average number of days Boston stays below freezing each winter?

    A. 15
    B. 21
    C. 26
    D. 30

    The correct answer is B.

    1. I was surprised at the correct answer. I guessed A – 15 as I couldn’t comprehend
      that Logan would have that many days on average. Oh well. Thanks.

  7. Regarding JPD’s coyote sighting, I hardly think the city of Boston as “encroaching” as it hasn’t been their territory for at least a couple centuries I would imagine. This is 2020 not 1820.

    1. The problem is that the pop is increasing and the areas that are better suited already have coyotes or been developed on reducing there habitat. Also many animals have started to not care that humans are around. Otherwise shy animals have over come fear and their pickyness

      1. Exactly Matt and if areas around Boston keep over developing, the animals have to go somewhere. They don’t have maps that tell them the best direction.

  8. Today’s Trivia Quizzes

    1. On this date in 2013 and 2015, the exact same amount of snow fell in Boston. How much was it?
    A. 10.3″
    B. 12.6″
    C. 14.8″
    D. 21.4″

    2. Today marks the anniversary of the coldest day ever recorded in Boston. What was the high/low combination? (This probably occurred in the pre-Logan days.)
    A. 3/-18
    B. 5/-13
    C. 6/=12
    D. 8/-11

    Answers later today.

    1. C and A

      As always, thanks for these quizzes, Longshot!!!

      Thanks for the blog and your hard work, TK!!!

  12. Thanks TK.

    Obviously not a good winter for Northeast snow lovers, especially since early December. No indications of that changing any time soon. But if you’re in that camp be thankful you don’t live down here… Philadelphia sitting at a cool 0.3” of snow on the season so far 🙂

  13. Some winter are duds and this one is a dud. We have gone a long stretch since our last dud winter of 11-12.

  14. Winter’s flailing and flopping around with no purpose or bite.

    Flowers are appearing on lawns in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Birds are very noisy. Stick a fork in it. Sure, there may be a few cold days and maybe some gloppy snow, but winter’s finished and it never got off the ground.

    1. As I stated, there is more cold available soon. Not deep arctic cold, but cold. CPC is colder for the Northeast in recent outlooks and I agree.

  17. Thanks TK!
    This winter reminds me alot of the 2001 – 2002 season. I remember that winter vividly as my wife and I built our house in that time period. I started clearing trees from my lot April of 2001 and continued clearing all through the winter into 2002 with no snow storms to speak of, in fact I can remember cutting trees in my tee shirt January 2002. I’ve never wanted a season with no snow except for that year and I got my wish, as it allowed me to start building ahead of schedule. Ironically the biggest storm we got was in April of 02 the week we were supposed to pour the foundation, we had a 6” storm that week.

    1. 15.1” iirc for Logan that season and a VERY COLD Patriots Victory Parade! I should know as I was there. SB XXXVI? 🙂

  18. B’s losing 2-1 against Wings in the 3rd.

    Hello TK. Thanks for the update. I am requesting a special order from you … one snow storm in the 6-10″ range; prefer light and fluffy; and mid-week if possible. 🙂

    1. Haha we’ll see. Even if that thing ends up snow, we’ll need a lot of help for fluff…..

    1. They’re ready almost everywhere in most of SNE, and will sprout within a month. There just isn’t any persistent severe frost on the way. I think `spring’ will be 4-6 weeks early.

  20. Elsewhere on the net (not here) I’ve had to remind several people of the 2011-2012 winter. This is not the “worst winter ever” for snow lovers for most of the region. These people are also too young to have been around for winters like 1979-1980, 1980-1981, 1985-1986, etc. 😉

    2. Other than being aware of lack of snow north of us impacting ski areas, I don’t notice less snowy winters. Winter is colder, crisper, breathe deep air to me. I love snow, so if we get a storm p, to me it is a bonus. Only one I remember is 2011-2012 because we rented in Humarock for a month in winter for the first time. I had hoped for a storm then. We had a bit of shovelable snow, but that was it.

      On the other hand, we had an ocean as angry as I’ve seen while there. Water was higher than it had ever been And the owners have had the house in the family since the 40s. Sadly, it has continued to get higher every year now.

  21. Boston’s Least Snowiest

    1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 9.3” = 2011-12
    3. 10.3” = 1972-73
    4. 12.7” = 1979-80
    5. 14.9” = 1994-95
    5. 14.9” = 2019-20** (to date)
    6. 15.1” = 2001-02
    7. 15.5” = 1988-89
    8. 17.1” = 2006-07
    9. 17.5” = 1900-01
    10. 18.1” = 1985-86

  23. This winter isn’t nearly as bad as 2011-2012. After the freak late October snowstorm that year, I had 16″ the remainder of the winter. It was pretty much a warm and dry winter everywhere, including NNE. Not nearly as active a pattern as what we are seeing this year and we weren’t even getting “chances” at snow events. Nor did we see much of anything in December that year.

    That winter the ski areas weren’t even getting anything and were hurting badly for snow. It was so warm they couldn’t even make it much of the time. Killington was shuttling people between base lodges because they couldn’t make enough snow to keep the connecting trails open. As of today, most ski areas in NNE are 80-100% open.

  24. 12z Euro advertising 3 cutters in the next 10 days….the first Wed night/Thursday, second around Monday 2/17 and the third around Tues/Wed 2/18-19. All three would be brief snow/mix to rain in SNE and mostly heavy snow in NNE. While it stinks for us, its a great pattern for the ski areas of NNE. I would take it as we are heading up to Sugarloaf ME for a long weekend on 2/20.

    12z Euro run total snow….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020020912&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full

    12z GFS generally agrees with the threat periods and outcomes though it has a colder solution still for this week’s storm and the rain/snow line is farther southeast.

    1. This is the big difference between this winter and that of 2011-2012. We were not seeing areas just to the north of us cash in like this.

  25. The western ski areas of CO and Utah have gotten crushed the past few days. 30″ of snow in 24 hours at Breckenridge closed the upper half of the mountain for avalanche protocol.

    Snowbird, UT also closed on Friday. Check out this wild video of an avalanche coming down right next to the baselodge and into the parking lot! Must have sucked to be parked there!

    https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1225880308148580353?s=20

        1. I hear you but if this were a football season, the team would be at 3-5 and so making the playoffs would be a silly bet forget a deep run. Sure we’ll get some snow but nothing noteworthy is where I’d place a bet if I had to.

          1. You never know…things usually start to get more “blocky” in March as we head towards Spring so we may get into some “less hostile” conditions. I’m not betting on it but wouldn’t discount it either.

    1. I know around here Boston / south sure not looking like any snow storms this week right through Sunday of the holiday weekend.

      1. Pure snowstorm no but Boston area is still in the running for some up front accumulating snow at the start of the Wed/Thurs system. GFS more bullish on that than the Euro right now.

  29. Happy Birthday to the NWS!!
    One of the oldest federal agencies in our country celebrates It’s 150th birthday today. To think of the many people who have contributed their knowledge and life’s work to make that agency what it is today. Thank you and congratulations!!!

  30. And I know it was already mentioned here, but Boston has over 12 inches more snow to date this winter than last winter, when they were at 2.2 inches through February 9. I realize it was not the same everywhere, and it was snowier as you went northwestward last winter. It’s just the nature of the beast. The variety of winters is what New England is all about.

  31. TK, agree on the variety of winters as being a characteristic of the season in SNE. And, for snow it’s been meager, but not the worst of the lot. I don’t measure a winter’s intensity by the snowfall. Frankly, I don’t care whether it snows as much as whether it’s persistently cold, at least for while, to freeze up the ponds and lakes. My measure of a winter’s being, its ontological essence, is temperature and sustained cold. We’ve had practically no sustained cold. With the exception of 2011-2012 (which was colder in January than this January), I’ve never experienced a winter as lacking in cold. The more I think about 2011-2012 the more I recall that there was ice on the lagoon and it lasted several weeks. The thin ice this year has lasted all of about 4 days in a row, 3 times this winter.

    Storm Ciara wreaked havoc across Northern Europe, with 60-80mph winds over a very large swath of territory. This plane had trouble landing at Heathrow and aborted the landing after touching down (that’s happened to me twice in my lifetime and has had a permanently traumatic effect on my willingness to fly).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-london-51438230/storm-ciara-plane-struggles-to-land-in-strong-winds-at-heathrow-airport

  32. True about the thermometer, and I’m sure there are others out there in other states that are miscalibrated, but with that debacle aside I can’t help but think of the many short fused warnings that have been issued over the years all over the country that have saved countless lives.

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