DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
As we head into mid February, the large scale pattern will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, while we have an active jet stream sending low pressure systems in the battle zone between southeastern warmth and building colder air in Canada. Much of the winter we’ve had the arctic air bottled up far to the north, with the result being a very mild pattern since around the solstice (after colder weather before that). But some of that air will be released in small pieces and help build more cold to our north, intensifying the battle between the air masses. We’ll see 3 unsettled days as a result of this battle during the next 5 days: Monday, Tuesday, Thursday. Monday’s unsettled weather will be mainly the first half of the day and mainly in the form of rain, Tuesday’s will be mainly midday and afternoon and again mainly in the form of rain (which may start as a brief mix to the north), and Thursday’s, starting late Wednesday night, will begin as snow and probably transition to rain for most areas, though it may be little more of a struggle to get it to turn over to rain in southern NH as colder air that arrives Wednesday may be a little more stubborn. But what about Friday? Bundle up. It’s going to be pretty cold to end the week.
TODAY: Cloudy through midday with rain (possible mix higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH) ending west to east early afternoon. Breaking clouds and just a risk of an additional rain shower thereafter. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, SW 5-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH mid morning into afternoon, shifting to NW later.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain southern NH and northern MA, rain likely elsewhere, mainly late morning to mid afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Snow arriving pre-dawn, mixing with or changing to rain South Coast. Lows 20-27. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast with rain South Coast, snow to rain most areas but may remain mixed southwestern NH. Highs 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Rapid freeze-up of any standing water / wet surfaces. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Fair, cold February 15. Quick warm-up February 16 with late-day rain showers as low pressure tracks north of this area. Fair, colder weather returns February 17 into February 18 and the next system brings a chance of rain/mix/snow later February 18 or February 19.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Fair, seasonably cold early period. Watching February 22-24 for potential winter storm threat.