Thursday Forecast

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
A storm system passing through the region today started as rain/mix coast that went over to snow eastern coastal areas and rain southern coastal areas before that rain/snow line progressed northward to the MA/NH border in the pre-dawn, and while some southern NH areas are still seeing flakes now the transition will be completed shortly and we’re looking at rain for all, which ends west to east by later today. Any standing water or slush will freeze solid overnight as a shot of modified arctic air arrives and will be with us for a couple of days. Moderating temperatures will occur the middle and end of what is a 3-day weekend for many, with only a few snow showers Sunday as a weak front passes through the region.
TODAY: Overcast with rain except some lingering sleet/snow into mid morning southern NH with little additional accumulation expected there.
Highs 36-43. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts especially coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Rapid freeze-up of any standing water / wet surfaces. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20 evening, rising overnight. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Current indications are for a minor system passing through later February 18 into early February 19 with no major impact, with rain/mix showers favored. Fair weather follows for a couple days with the next unsettled weather threat coming at the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Still low confidence here as we may have to watch energy from 2 branches of jet stream energy for potential interaction. Will give this late February period another look tomorrow but for now will only say there are 1 or 2 storm threats in here.

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53 Responses to Thursday Forecast

  1. North says:

    Thanks TK.

  2. Scott77 says:

    Thanks TK

  3. WeatherWiz says:

    Inch or less here…moved it before the big freeze late tomorrow.

  4. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

    If it had done anything frozen here at the very beginning, there was no trace of it at 6am.

    Overnight low in Miami last night, 77F. Key West, 78F. Average low: 62F.

    Persistent, super-southeast ridge.

  5. Vicki says:

    Thank you, TK

    Lovely morning. White everywhere except paved areas. Mother Nature painted a picture and then cleaned up afterwards so shoveling wasn’t necessary

  6. JpDave says:

    Good morning and thank you TK.

    All went pretty much as expected. I measured about 3/8 inch around 8AM, but accounting for some compression/melting I am counting 0.5 inch as my accumulation.

    FWIW, the GFS has ZIPPO snow through the end of month.

  7. JpDave says:

    I saw what “appeared” to be coyote prints in the snow this morning.

    • Vicki says:

      cool….you need a Ring Camera 😉

    • JpDave says:

      There are no loose dogs in the neighborhood (that I am aware. Lease law in the city) and most especially in the wee hours of the morning, So I am assuming it was the coyote, but obviously I cannot be certain of that. Interesting that
      there were rabbit tracks close by??? May be coincidental at different times
      as the coyote tracks did not appear to indicate that the animal was running.

  8. Mark says:

    Thanks TK.

    Actually looked like winter this am! About 1” of snow in Coventry CT accounting for some compression before the changeover to rain.

  9. Sue says:

    Thank you TK!

  10. Philip says:

    0.2” at Logan, now 15.1” to date

    1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 9.3” = 2011-12
    3. 10.3” = 1972-73
    4. 12.7” = 1979-80
    5. 14.9” = 1994-95
    6. 15.1” = 2019-20*
    6. 15.1” = 2001-02
    7. 15.5” = 1988-89
    8. 17.1” = 2006-07
    9. 17.5” = 1900-01
    10. 18.1” = 1985-86

  11. Joshua says:

    Thank you, TK.

    Seymour Island, Antarctica measured the highest temperature on record (20.75C; 69.35F – it was in fact the first time any place on Antarctica had gone above 20C). January was the warmest on record, worldwide.

    The Dutch are planning to build two mammoth dams to completely enclose the North Sea and protect an estimated 25 million Europeans from the consequences of rising sea levels as a result of global warming. It’s real, folks, and it’s impacting people in a big way.

    • Vicki says:

      Oh my. Thanks, Joshua!

      • Joshua says:

        The Dutch are very good at this sort of thing. They’ve been waging a perpetual battle against the sea for centuries. But, this will be a daunting and necessary task that’ll cost a fortune.

  12. WeatherWiz says:

    In Andover for work and snowing at the moment.

  13. JpDave says:

    I updated the snow chart based on today’s posts. If there are changes, please post the change and I will edit the chart. thank you.

    https://imgur.com/a/JFXAAQX

  14. Philip says:

    If Logan can eke out 3.1” between now and April (or May) then they can at least keep out of the top 10 Least Snowiest.

  15. WxWatcher says:

    Thanks TK.

    It was confirmed by NOAA today that January 2020 was Earth’s warmest January on record, and the third most anomalously warm month of any month on record. A stunning achievement in the midst on ENSO neutral conditions. It was also the 421st consecutive month of temperatures above the 20th century average globally. While the positive AO has helped Arctic sea ice build a little more than in some recent years, it remains solidly below average.

    https://www.noaa.gov/news/january-2020-was-earth-s-hottest-january-on-record

    A serious question going forward: is there ever a case where it would be feasible to forecast below average temperatures in a seasonal (3 month) forecast? Sure it can happen, but the odds are increasingly astronomical. What would you have to see to be confident enough to forecast it months in advance? I can see calling for a below average 2-4 week period reasonably far in advance. But in terms of a true seasonal forecast, it’s basically too easy at this point. We already know the answer. Now it’s more a question of magnitude than direction. The better question now for a seasonal forecast is “how far above average will we be?”

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      No doubt the super positive AO had a lot to do with that.

      • Vicki says:

        No doubt the mess we have created by polluting our land, water and air had a lot more to do with it than anything.

      • Cat966g says:

        Thinks its all man causing warming ? Or a combination of natural variability and man? Also think going forward we will less snow in the future ?

        • Vicki says:

          Could be some of each. We simply need to stop wondering and clean up our mess. Again. To the generations after me….I am ashamed

        • Woods Hill Weather says:

          It’s definitely a combination, but while people wonder and argue about it things just get dirtier. It’s cleanup time! And then maintaining would be very wise. Whatever is natural is going to do what it’s going to do. Whatever we can control, we should be doing without a second thought…

    • Vicki says:

      All I can say is I’m ashamed.

  16. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Rain/sleet mix Reading to Woburn last hour, ending as drizzle. The snow almost made it back here – just to my northeast (Andover / Ipswich / etc).

  17. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Didn’t think the stupid broom thing from the other day could be topped today, but now it’s the asteroid that “could” kill millions. Yup, it could, if it were going to be about 3.6 million miles closer when it goes by. Fun stuff.

    Of more immediate and actual concern is the icy ground that forms rather quickly tonight. I don’t think we dry out as much as previous events, because the wind will be slower to pick up and the temp will be adequately cold enough before that happens. So caution is going to be warranted if traveling about tonight, as I will be.

    Have a good evening!

  18. Philip says:

    I “thought” I heard Eric say that this winter 2019-20 could be the warmest winter on record around here? If so, this “climate change” is getting scary now.

  19. Philip says:

    Would it be too premature to declare the 2019-20 “snow” season over for SNE? Especially for southeastern New England? :-(

  20. Joshua says:

    Certainly premature to declare snow season over in SNE at this juncture, but time is ticking away. It’ll get cold the next 2 days, but a return to blah is coming and that blah will once again be persistent. I do think this winter has a chance of being the mildest on record, especially if I see that the long-range is mostly blah (lots of 40s, lots of gray, and lots of nights that don’t get below 30F). I’ve worn my winter coat 5 days this entire winter. I get by day after day after day with my leather jacket with no real lining or padding. I can tell you that this is highly unusual.

    As for global warming, I’m with TK. It’s not either/or. It’s a combination of a natural cycle AND human impact (greenhouse effect; in some ways similar to the urban effect on temperatures – cities tend to be warmer than surrounding suburbs). While the U.S. shares in the blame, it’s important to include the emerging economies China and India as bearing responsibility as well. I don’t begrudge them their rapid development. But, with the industrial development (in which governments regulate and measure environmental externalities) there’s also tremendous growth in car ownership. The automobile is great in many ways, but when you add tens of millions of vehicles every few years you’re bound to cause environmental issues.

    • SClarke says:

      I like the idea that we are experiencing “persistent blah.” I wonder how far back the blah records go and where this winter stands so far in the ranking of blahiest winters!

  21. coastal says:

    The GFS offers no hope for snow for the rest of meteorological winter.

  22. Tom says:

    Dark cloud line pushing through Marshfield. Looks like something you’d see during summer.

  23. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Around midnight I experienced a mix of snow sleet & rain in shower form along Route 2 from near Acton to near Lexington.

  24. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post!