Friday Forecast

60 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
In comes rare (for this winter) blast of cold air today into Saturday, but without really strong wind and with the sun angle as it is in mid February we won’t feel the sting that we’d feel with more wind, or earlier in the season. Still though, it will be quite cold in comparison to a good part of the winter-to-date. We quickly moderate Sunday and early next week with a weak front producing only the slightest risk of a passing snow flurry Sunday. High pressure brings fair weather for Presidents Day Monday. Low pressure tracks north of the region Tuesday with a warm front / cold front combo bringing the next chance of precipitation, probably a minor mix with the warm front and rain showers with the cold front.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-5 most interior areas, 6-11 most urban and coastal areas. Wind diminishing to calm.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20 evening, rising overnight. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Early sun the clouding over with a period of rain/sleet/snow possible midday then a chance of rain showers following that. Highs 42-49. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Windy, dry, seasonably chilly February 19, then fair and milder February 20-21 as high pressure slips to the south of the region. Potential for unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Still low confidence here as we may have to watch energy from 2 branches of jet stream energy for potential interaction. Can’t rule out a couple storm potentials.

60 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

      1. Thanks, Sue and Vicki!!!!
        Another 90 minutes with students (they leave at 11:30) and then we have a PD day till 2:20, then

        WOO-HOO!

        Tom, have a blast in the Keys and safe travels, amigo!

    1. No worries, it’s just a naturally occurring cycle. 200 years of spewing crap
      into the atmosphere has NOTHING to do with it.

    2. If the warming is man made. Which i am not saying it isn’t. The planet has warmed so fast. How do we know the damage has not already been done. How do we know we can even do anything about it now? The effects we are seeing now could have been cause a 100 years ago and we are just at the culmination now. Also i think the us does a pretty good job at controlling green house gas. Countries like china, Indonesia and other countries with an emerging economy’s are the greatest contributors. If the don’t get on board its useless. And from everything i read the Paris climate treaty was not going to do much to curb those countries emissions.

      1. I believe in the end the earth will cool itself in its own time. Man can only do so much, if anything realistically.

      2. At the moment I think the US is largest producer of greenhouse gases per capita and second largest over all.

        But it isn’t just Greenhouse gases. We …the United States…..do a horrific job limiting pollution. Our waters are all full of PCBs and mercury for a start. We have just reduced regs in dumping coal waste in water. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47165522

  9. Thanks, TK…

    February 14, 2016…the coldest day in Taunton since NWS-BOX opened in 1996 and the coldest night of the 2010s: -11
    February 14, 2015…the start of the fourth of four majors snows in about three weeks…

    Happy Friday, Valentine’s Day and February School Break!!!!

        2. There was some rumbling on the town site yesterday because Sutton has a full week this year rather than just Monday and Tuesday as it did in the past few years. I must be a dinosaur. I always looked forward to vacations as much as my kids. I love having the extra time to spend with them.

    2. Just think after this one just one more break till summer break . I really believe these good winters make the winter seem like it goes by faster .

  10. Must have had some road icing this am in Sutton. A town truck went by earlier. I could not tell if he was carrying sand or salt. Our roads were clear but I figured there had been icing somewhere so he was checking all roads. Sure enough, when I was just out and about with daughter, there were several signs in the typically colder sections of town of both what is now slush and salting !

    1. We started the day in the high 20s but our temps are now down to the lower to mid 20s. Did some little birdie tell us this would be the case 😉

  11. Vicki, why did Sutton up until now have February vacation only on Mondays and Tuesdays? Was it to make up for snow days?

    1. It was that way when we moved here. Not sure the reasoning but suspect to move the end day up. Not a wise move. I’ve said before framingham tried it years ago. The teachers all said feb vacation was needed to break illnesses. And they were right. Framingham reinstated.

  12. it may be cold today/tomorrow, but
    it still does not seem like Winter to me.
    Wonderous Wimporama Winter….

  13. Models look BRUTAL to month’s end.
    Will there be a surprise? Suppose there always could be, but I highly doubt it. Time will tell.

  14. Another gem from Tomer Burg today… too funny not to share:

    Tomer Burg @burgwx

    Warm fronts are red
    Cold fronts are blue
    This winter is dead
    No snow for you

  15. So back when I issued my winter forecast I was worried about January & February being drastically wrong. They were (January) and have been so far (February). But I also mentioned 2 major wild cards along the way (AO & MJO). They have combined to royally screw me, in terms of long range forecast verification after December. But that’s where my minor disappointment ends. I don’t care if we have low snow, mild weather, etc. And for personal reasons (mom’s health) it’s been a very welcome pattern. One things I guess that is going to work out is that turn to dry weather for later in the month. Next week other than a relatively minor system Tuesday looks very quiet, and that may last a while beyond that too. However down the road there are still some signs that the indices that worked against a snowlover’s good winter may actually start to head into areas more favorable for it, and that makes me wonder… I joked about bookend storms (like 1981-1982). Wouldn’t it be funny……………………………………

    1. Of course, just when we’re all ready for Spring, WHAM!!!
      Wouldn’t be surprised. But honestly, would much rather have it now, rather than
      in March or worse, April.

    3. I may have said this the other day. I thought it when I read your comment about the weather and your moms health. I remember 2015 and the difficulty with Macs February appointments in Boston. Everyone wanted snow. And I understood and appreciated that. But with so much else going on, it just made it more difficult mentally. So I sure understand your reasons.

      1. Yes, but those were big storms. We did NOT have a biggie this
        past December. Perhaps we’ll bookend little guys.

        1. Depends on where you were for the December one this year. A lot of places north and west of Boston had between 12 and 24 inches, so for the region it at least partially counts.

  17. I do wonder if March may be a stormy month for parts of the Eastern Seaboard. Stormy doesn’t have to mean snowy, and I’m certainly not high on confidence for that prediction. But I think I’m seeing some of the same things TK is seeing.

    February looked foggy to me until the very end of January when it became apparent it would be another blowtorch. So maybe in a week or so March will come into better view.

  18. TK, hope your Mom is doing allright.

    Today was a gem. Can’t take that away. I wish this would last for at least a month. Alas. Winter just didn’t have any staying power or punch this year. Oh well.

    I’m not a fan of snows in late winter, nor cold and raw in April. But, of course, we may see some of that. Don’t we always?

    Vicki is right about pollution. There’s still too much of it. We’re also emitting too many pollutants, disposing of too much plastic (overconsumption of everything is rampant at the moment), not recycling or not recycling properly. Leadership is missing in this regard. This is not a political statement, or certainly not one with a conservative or liberal bent. Going back to Nixon – yes, I said Nixon – we’ve had a long line of presidents who recognized the pivotal role that government can play in protecting the environment. Moreover, by reminding us that “we ought to be prudent stewards of this earth” (George W. Bush), “use less energy or use it more efficiently” (Carter), we’re at least made aware of the issue. Messaging matters. Same applies to climate change. It’s not a conservative or liberal issue. Somehow in this country it’s been made out to be a liberal issue, which is absolutely mind-boggling. Try telling that to arch conservative Boris Johnson, or the conservative Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte. They’ll literally tell you that it’s poppycock and ostrich-like behavior to politicize this issue. Johnson talks about climate change all of the time, as does Rutte, as do virtually all European leaders, on the right, in the middle, or on the left. Messaging matters. Letting people know that there’s a problem that needs to be addressed matters. Letting people know that the status quo is not healthy for the environment, for our earth, and for future generations matters.

    4. I think the message gets Lost is because there Is so much hysteria behind. Like Quotes “the world is coming to an end”, “Climate change is causing infertility” when statements like this are made, people tune it out. We need a message thats reasonable and not so hyperbolic. !

  19. Hmmm at 15 already it might be a tad chilly sitting outside later. But it’s dry and that is more important

    1. It’s even 18 here in JP. My low for the Winter is 12, occurring once each in
      December and January. I have a feeling by early tomorrow AM, we drop
      below that, likely below 10.

      Dew point is -2

    1. Yup, one of the strongest, but likely not the strongest. Fits a pattern of mild atmosphere & oceans during just-after peak AMO and strong positive AO. Water temps are above average. The storms that are benignly going by here are blowing up out there this season. Fits the pattern perfectly.

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