Monday Forecast

68 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
High pressure brings fair weather today, the final day of a 3-day weekend for many. The only unsettled day of this 5-day period will be Tuesday as low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes down the St. Lawrence Valley, with southeastern New England obviously on the warmer side of the system. While it will be cold enough for some mix/snow at the start, mild air will quickly make sure most of this is a rain event. Look for a blustery, chilly day Wednesday between the departing low and approaching high pressure. That high will bring fair but cold weather for Thursday and Friday.
TODAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding over early. Snow/mix arriving midday, changing to rain quickly south to north, ending west to east later in the day. Highs 35-42 southwestern NH and north central MA and 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a few rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
High pressure sinks to the south of the region with fair weather and moderating temperatures during the February 22-23 weekend. Potential for some unsettled weather during the February 24-26 period with rain favored over snow.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 2)
Turning colder. Watching for a potential storm system, snow/mix favored over rain, in the late February 27-28 time period. Drier weather follows that.

68 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  7. Answer to yesterday’s Trivia Quiz.

    Trivia Quiz.

    Boston has recorded 3.6″ of snow so far this [calendar] year. That’s the fifth lowest total through February 15th. Which year and amount was the lowest.

    A. 0.0″ in 1936
    B. 0.7″ in 1980
    C. 2.2″ in 1989
    D. 2.6″ in 2011

    The correct answer is B.

        1. Nah, that threat always depended on some sort of coastal redevelopment. They are going to keep trying to cut west. Need a little blocking/-NAO to try and curtail that and wedge some cold air in here. Some indications we might have a shot at that coming up soon but I remain skeptical as well.

    3. Also wouldn’t overlook next Tuesday 2/25. GFS and Euro have trended north with that storm threat and the precip shield on the 12z GFS now gets into SNE (albeit in a marginally cold air mass as has been the case all winter)…

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020021712&fh=120

      00z Euro actually has this developing into a stronger, more compact system off the mid Atlantic coast but it stays just south of us.

      1. He didn’t say snowstorm per se. The ensemble mean he posted would indicate a track west of us and likely a large rain event for the eastern seaboard.

  12. Tom, I hope you are not getting pooped on while laying out at the beach!

    NWS Key West
    @NWSKeyWest
    6h

    Key West radar has had a busy night, but not because of weather! The most impressive display of migratory birds so far this year occurred overnight. This product shows biological targets in green/yellow flying north over the Keys. Showers/rain are depicted in darker blues.

    https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1229366520234594306?s=20

  14. Dave, you are in rare form today!

    Here’s another one for you….

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    21h

    Last night’s GFS ensembles finally suggesting some cracks in the #Arctic’s impenetrable wall of low pressure. Can it be enough to bring some wintry (#cold and #snow) weather to the US and/or Europe right before “the clock strikes midnight” on #winter 2019/20?

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1229141851413704704?s=20

    2. Rae form? Nah, I’m just sick of this pattern and this Winter We’re having.
      BRING ON SPRING and end this nightmare once and for all.

  15. 84 sweaty degrees at Lion Country Safari…thankfully I’m not missing any eventful winter weather this week…fingers crossed for some winter shenanigans late Feb/early March before I head to Israel 3/15

  17. Great Googly Moogly !!!!

    The desperation to see winter weather hints is almost embarrassing, but people
    who make their money on weather know this is a way to keep people on the line.

    I just can’t do it anymore.

    Cohen is a snow lover and frankly his wants and biases have corrupted 4 of his last 5 winter forecasts. Let it go and be the outstanding scientist he most definitely is.

    It has turned a bit cooler with about half the days in a 10-12 day period dating back to Valentine’s Day, below normal, with an average temp adjusted up by a couple of days that will be well above normal.

    It will snow again this winter and yes it will snow in the areas most people live, but any real sustained change to winter is not happening. Besides any winter pattern late feb into early April is alway moderated by climatology.

  19. Thanks JMA for being the voice of reason. “Any real sustained change to winter is not happening.” Bingo. From that perspective at least, winter is over. Yes there will probably be a little more snow and you can never rule out a freak late season biggie. But the prevailing pattern remains as locked in as ever. I again point to the AO and MJO, and I expect there will be a lot of research interest in the months ahead as to how those two indices combined to effectively cancel winter in much of the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere this year.

  20. In defense of the Twitter posts above from the NWS Boston and Judah Cohen (and most others I have seen lately from the “Twitterologists”), none are heralding a “sustained change to winter”. Most are looking at indices and long range guidance for windows of opportunity where the current pattern may relax for a time to set the stage for some wintery weather. I don’t see anything wrong with that. TK has mentioned this possibility as well several times.

    It’s hard not to remain skeptical given the persistence of the pattern but also not prudent to discount the possibility of something happening. Climatologically, it can snow for another 45-60 days most places in SNE and it almost definitely will.

    Personally I’ll keep watching the models and teleconnections until the chance is effectively zero. Not close to there yet 🙂

  22. Tick tock , tick tock spring is not that far away . Wait it has actually felt like spring all Winter lol .

    2. If these are the temps after the solstice, I can absolutely guarantee that there would be more complaints on WHW than there currently are. Multiply by 100 perhaps

  27. Winter’s been a big disappointment around here, although I have enjoyed the last 4 days.

    The Northern polar region is quite cold, and this has been sustained for several months. That is good news for ice accretion. Obviously, it won’t happen overnight, or in one season, but it’s something to keep an eye on. For a change, Northern Greenland (places like Thule) has been trending this winter to normal and below normal in terms of temperature. Even Nuuk, the capital, has been normal to below normal. Of course, we all know about the epic snows in coastal Newfoundland, the beneficiary no doubt of sustained cold to the north.

  28. Euro Weeklies say BRRRRR…

    But I agree with JMA. BRR in March is not the same as BRR in January. That sun angle makes a huge difference. And it doesn’t mean all of March will be cold either. We’ll basically see a little more cold (relative to average) than we have seen during the actual winter. It may remind you of the pattern we had in November and the first half of December.

    1. Even blind squirrels find an acorn sometimes. If March verifies as colder and snowier than normal I’ll have managed to pull off my one and only accurate prediction in a very long time.

      By the way, TK, did you work on the shipping forecasts for the North Sea, Irish Sea, and North Atlantic in the early 1990s? You may have seen my note in which I mentioned listening to the shipping forecasts intently during that time period.

    2. That EPO forecast I posted above I’m sure has something to do with the colder outlook. Best the Euro weeklies have looked in awhile…

  30. Thanks Mark for the tweet showing the migrating birds on the key west, FL radar. Pretty cool !!

    Climatologically, the keys are warm in February. 76F by day/63F by night.

    Those numbers are being blown away, with low 80s by day and low to mid 70s by night. 3 more to come, so the birds must think it’s late March to early April. It’s insanely warm down here, even by extreme South Florida Standards. The escessive heat budget, available to the atmosphere, has to be having an impact on the overall pattern.

    1. I rode those buses in Belmont from the early 50s. Watertown and Belmont lines intersected where Belmont St and Mt Auburn street meet by the star market and Mt Auburn Cemetery. Awesome share Joshua. Thank you

    2. Thanks Joshua! And don’t forget those “Gray Ghost” cars. I remember those as well. 🙂

      I wish today’s Green Line would bring back 3-car rush hour service. It was standard back then.

  32. 00z Euro delivers a major snowstorm for next Thursday 2/27:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020021800&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Snowmap with 10-12″+ most areas…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020021800&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full

    It even has the Tuesday 2/25 system as a benchmark coastal storm but the NW flank of the system is mostly devoid of precip.

    Something to keep an eye on…

  34. Per Mark’s comment, Euro looking interesting for late next week, but I expect the track will only change say 25 times between now and then. 🙂

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