Wednesday Forecast

42 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
A blustery chill arrives today between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure. That high deliver a decent cold shot, rare for this winter, Thursday and Friday, and then it will sink to the south over the weekend at which time it will warm back up once again…
TODAY: Clouds in eastern MA and RI depart early, then sun dominates with a few passing clouds. Highs 40-47 morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Two potential storm systems could impact the region during this 5 day period, the first with rain favored in the February 24-25 time frame and the second with mix/snow favored in the February 27-28 time frame. Temperatures trending colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 29-MARCH 4)
Overall temperature trend is for somewhat colder, but not extreme. Have to watch a couple low pressure systems but this far out have no feel on how they may or may not impact the region. Further investigation needed…

42 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. The model forecasts down here from about 48 hrs out can’t grasp the magnitude of the warmth (sound familiar?).

    For example, a general 82F to 84F was the 48 hr prediction for today. Yesterday, it bumped up to 84F to 86F, and now this morning, on the Miami NWS webpage, it’s a general 86F to 88F prediction for today for a good part of the southern third of the Peninsula.

    Morning overnight lows from last night, Miami : 75F, Key West : 78F.

  5. If no one minds, I am re-posted something very interesting that JMA posted on the previous blog earlier this morning:

    JMA says:
    February 19, 2020 at 6:37 AM
    Well it is the 6z beyond 200 hours….

    00z and 12z stay there for now.

    My thoughts remain the same. Extended dry periods, more frequent occurrences of colder than average days. Trend after early March will be a return similar to January and February pattern and not an extended return to winter.

    As for the time period around the 27th. At this point I like the colder solutions, but weaker and progressive.

    Reply
    JMA says:
    February 19, 2020 at 6:40 AM
    *after early March, a return to the predominant pattern of January and February 2020, further modified by climatology.

    1. Other guidance is gradually coming into line with that as well. I mentioned it briefly on the last blog, and assuming the higher end solutions verify which was my inclination yesterday, it will serve as another great example of meteorology over models as much of the non-US based guidance has been butchering the handling of that system. This could be their “big one.”

  7. Thanks TK.

    The AO may hit record positive territory in the next couple of days, which break the all time record set…. a couple weeks ago. So you can see there’s not a 1:1 correlation between the AO and our local temperatures since we’ll have some below average, though not frigid, air in the next couple days. But in terms of duration, you’ll basically never get sustained cold with the AO like this.

    I do agree we have to watch about a 10-15 day window from around 2/25-3/5 for storminess, though I really don’t see much support for it in the teleconnection forecasts, which have been far more useful than the actual surface forecasts all winter for medium range thoughts. Don’t be surprised if things trend “less interesting” over that period versus current guidance. Going deeper into March, I agree with JMA that the prevailing pattern will probably try to return.

    2. Ocean temperatures from Maine to New York city have been above 40° excluding near shore waters all winter.

  13. And the 12Z Euro looks interesting for the 27th, although as depicted a crap load of sleet and/or mix.

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020021912/198/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    Although, I don’t really get that.

    925 mb temps

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020021912/198/925th.us_ne.png

    850 mb temps

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020021912/198/850th.us_ne.png

    700 mb temps

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020021912/198/700th.us_ne.png

    surface temps

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020021912/198/sfct.us_ne.png

      1. 35 degree plus surface temps in valley and urban locations and its daytime in late February. Models not so good with the finer features this far out and especially during seasonal transition time
        frames.

        1. Many thanks. Makes sense. I guess we’ll know more as we get closer. My gut and many many years of observing
          SNE weather, says given the conditions depicted, it
          would, indeed, be snowing, albeit nice and wet.

          When I was in high school, I remember a major snow storm with surface temperatures at 35 and 36 degrees
          as outrageous as that sounds. I specifically remember
          Don Kent pointing out how unusual it was and he showed on his map that Brockton was reporting
          moderate or heavy (can’t remember which) snow
          with a temperature of 36. So, it can happen for sure.

          I was in Millis at the time and it was perhaps 34 there, maybe even 35. I was out and about in the snow and all seemed perfectly normal. Oh well. 🙂

          We shall see.

      1. No downsides that I can tell. Moving to a “tiered” flash flood warning system will be a bit of a challenge for NWS forecasters to get accustomed to, but I think most people would agree WEA’s for flash flood warnings have been excessive in the past, and that for “ordinary” flash floods your vulnerability is much more a matter of exact location than anything else. Now you’ll only be WEA-alerted for the most serious floods.

        Increased number of characters and Spanish language capability are certainly good changes.

    2. Not sure I’ve ever seen a map or actual even that looked like that. Lol. Yet more wasted computing power. I wonder how much energy is wasted annually just on crap like that. Guess I shouldn’t feel bad tossing a soda can now and again.

  17. I have been wandering back in time on the blog and reading some various blog posts from notable events and patterns, and since I was thinking about the 2015 pattern I decided to go back into January when we had been having a fairly benign winter as the new year was getting underway, and I came upon this which was the first hint of a coming pattern change. The post is from January 9 2015… JP Dave’s (Old Salty’s) reply to my post is classic. Would we expect anything different? 😉

    Here it is…

    Woods Hill Weather says:
    January 9, 2015 at 4:37 PM

    Ok! Forecast worked out well today, timing, snow amounts, and the clearing, which for some reason the NWS did not go for. They kept it mostly cloudy into tonight. I’ve never been too sure where they come up with their sky condition forecasts because they are not good at all the majority of the time.

    Cold night! Cold weekend but not as cold as the first Arctic shot. This is not a surprise as the second shot was known to be less potent. But we will still feel the chill through the weekend. Cold Pats game! But we also know it could be much worse.

    I think next week will be “milder” but not overly warm. Current feeling is that we’ll have to watch for lots of cloudiness but not so much storminess. That said, there will be a shot at something late Monday, but it looks minor and biased toward the South Coast. But 3 days off so will monitor.

    I also don’t see anything after that materializing into a snowstorm threat for SNE through the rest of next week and carrying forward into the week after that. Pattern change around January 24/25, then we start talking about snow threats for 6 weeks.

    Old Salty says:
    January 9, 2015 at 4:40 PM

    Now You’re talking!!!

    And your forecast was spot on for today.

  18. Was pondering yesterday as to whether or not there were any ski areas
    in Africa. Yes, I am out there for sure. 🙂

    Well, funny thing, there are.

    This is a list of ski areas and resorts in Africa.

    Despite the general perception that Africa is too warm for snow, there are several ski areas that exist across the continent.

    Algeria
    Chréa
    Tikjda

    Lesotho
    Afriski

    Morocco
    Ifrane
    Mischliffen
    Oukaimeden

    South Africa
    Tiffindell

    Here is a little video of the largest resort, Oukaimeden, in the Atlas mountains of Morocco.

    https://youtu.be/5nTVpvrmk24

    Elevation info
    2610 m – 3268 m (Difference 658 m)
    base: 8,563 feet
    summit: 10,723 feet
    Vertical drop: 2,159 feet

    South Africa’s ski resort, Tiffindell Ski Resort

    Vertical 180 m (590 ft)
    Top elevation 2,900 m (9,500 ft) [1]
    Base elevation 2,720 m (8,924 ft) [1]

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