Saturday Forecast

9:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)
Much like last weekend, in comes some Canadian chill, a breezy Saturday, and a more tranquil Sunday as the cold air becomes established from high pressure that takes up residence in southeastern Canada. This high is going to play a role in our next unsettled weather event as well, which will arrive Monday and peak Monday night as low pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast and passes south of New England. This set-up is one that will allow snow to occur in a fairly significant portion of the region for at least several hours, resulting in accumulation, with the greatest threat of this being away from the coastal areas. Eventually warm enough air should be able to change things to rain for most locations before it all ends. I’m not convinced that the entire region changes to rain, however, and that and other little details will still be worked out over the next 2 days leading up to the event. But wait there’s more. There was a suggestion the other day that a follow-up storm would occur around Wednesday, and this looks to be the case. It may take a very similar track but with a slightly milder atmosphere, so the rain/snow ratio would be tipped more in favor of the rain, however at day 5 there are still questions to be answered with that system as well.
TODAY: Limited sun into late morning southeastern MA and RI, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix develops early then changes to rain but may remain snow/mix for longer away from coastal locations. Preliminary snowfall accumulation expectation: Coating-2 inches southeast of the I-95 belt, 2-4 inches I-95 belt and I-495 belt south of I-90, 4-6 inches I-495 belt north of I-90. Lows 28-35 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with mix/rain/drizzle/fog possible early, then breaking clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, except some mix/snow possible interior areas. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)
A weaker storm system comes through later March 26 and March 27, a milder set-up with rain showers being the likely result. Another low pressure system brings the threat of rain/mix to the region sometime during the March 28-29 weekend. Drier weather arrives late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
Dry final day of March, unsettled start to April is the current indication.

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76 Responses to Saturday Forecast

  1. Woods Hill Weather says:

    C.A.D. being under-forecast by models, IMO, which is why I am a little colder for now than the NWS is. Not by much though. Only a couple degrees difference means measurable snow right into the city.

  2. Vicki says:

    Thank you, TK.

  3. Vicki says:

    We lost another great talent. Godspeed, Kenny Rogers.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo

  4. Philip says:

    Thanks TK!

    Now where does Logan fit in?

    Coating – 2”/ 2-4”?

    Bottom line, the high is in a lousy position to say the least.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      It’s not in a great position, but as I said, C.A.D. is underforecast in this situation. I’d consider Boston to be in C-2 at this point. A couple degrees either way and this shifts either southeast or northwest.

  5. Joshua says:

    Thank you, TK.

    As Vicki pointed out we lost another great talent in Kenny Rogers. 81 is too young.

  6. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Ch 5 had this interview up on their story about Kenny’s passing. I enjoyed it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mxIUTI86Zk

  7. Vicki says:

    JPD. I saw your post about friends in Oakland. Macs brother not far from there in Moraga. Both are our age and were sheltering before the order since they are in business of hospital disaster management. It is also in part and with thanks to Mac’s brother that we started taking steps to prepare early. Their oldest works in a hospital in the town hit hardest first.

  8. Oceanair says:

    Thank you TK.

  9. Philip says:

    C.A.D. rarely if ever works along the coastal plain.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      That is quite incorrect, especially for this time of year.

      • Philip says:

        Interesting. We will see then.

        I always think of C.A.D. mostly as a deep interior valley occurrence.

        • Woods Hill Weather says:

          Well, you’re partially correct. But that’s just more due to the fact that the cold air being dense is trapped in the interior valleys easily. If we have onshore winds and the coast warms up, these winds have trouble getting inland and even if they do that, they stay above the dense cold air in the valleys. So you have the right concept. But if you have high pressure to the north or northeast with a cold enough air mass, and the gradient wind is not too strong, you can hold the coastal areas pretty chilly as well, especially when the water is near or close to its coldest. We’re just coming off the coldest temps. Granted they were above normal, but the air mass and the air aloft (for a while) will compensate for that somewhat. That’s why I cannot rule out accumulation right into the city until I see how this is evolving inside 36 hours.

          • Philip says:

            I suppose with the high where it will be, probably no chance of a further south track, huh?

            • Woods Hill Weather says:

              Well, there’s always a chance. That high may be misplaced on some of these models. All it’s going to take is for that center to be 50 or 100 miles further NW and it changes the game. And I’m talking about the center of the high. Subtle changes in the medium scale can have significant impacts on the smaller scale. This will be one of those times.

  10. Joshua says:

    Philip, you are correct about life expectancy. In fact, KR exceeded expectations, if you will. This chart shows how relatively poorly the U.S. does in terms of life expectancy. I do a lot of public health work, so I’m heavily involved in this stuff. Notice the difference between men and women – everywhere: https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/

  11. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

  12. Vicki says:

    Dolly Parton tribute to Kenny….scroll down a bit for the video

    https://people.com/country/dolly-parton-tribute-kenny-rogers/

  13. South shore Kid says:

    Mass DPH 112 new positive cases since yesterday . Next week the daily post will at least double if not triple

  14. Tom says:

    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png

    Bit of an eastward shift vs this morning’s map

  15. South shore Kid says:

    I apologize if my post regarding the inmate testing positive in the prison I meant no harm I was just assuming folks saw it on there phone or tv . I’m just going to get back to weather as that’s probably better . Today was nice working outside and I guess we hand some snow coming ( can’t say I like that but happy for you all that love the snow . I saw everyone out walking today with the bright sun

    • South shore Kid says:

      That is impressive

    • alisonarod says:

      I’d be interested in knowing what the sensitivity of the test is. That is the percentage of sick patients that actually test positive vs the number of sick patients that test falsely negative. Point of care tests have their advantages such as the relatively low cost to run as well as the quick turn around time. However, such tests also come with disadvantages, namely the low sensitivity. For example, the rapid flu test is approximately 60% sensitive which means that 60 out of 100 patients that are ill will test positive. This equates false negatives at a rate of 40%. A negative test does not mean the patient is not infected with COVID. In fact, patients who are symptomatic but test negative should still self quarantine.

      • Vicki says:

        Excellent comment and my thought also. Quick strep are the same and have been since my kids were young. I used to insist on full culture. Now it is automatic

        Glad you are here arod

        • alisonarod says:

          You’re absolutely right. Interestingly, the rates of complications from strep including kidney failure and rheumatic fever have dropped significantly. For this reason, the CDC no longer recommends sending off a culture in the setting of negative rapid strep tests over the age of 17 since studies show that strep resolves without treatment. However, I still always send off a culture.

          • Vicki says:

            Good for you. Pediatricians for my grands do also. For one grand in particular and for my son even now the rapid test has had false negatives more than once

  16. JimmyJames says:

    This is good news especially a time when we need good news.

  17. JimmyJames says:

    Could that area northwest of me in Upstate NY shift a little bit to the southeast for me. This might be the last flakes we see until later this year.

  18. Tom says:

    Marshfield police sent out to town about an hour ago of a first person to test positive in town.

  19. Aidan says:

    The number was wrong in Barnstable county 14 so far

  20. Tom says:

    We have a snowy 00z Nam run

  21. Mark says:

    00z NAM Kuchera Snow….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020032200&fh=78&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc&m=nam

    It definitely brought the heavier totals further south and east from the 18z run I posted earlier.

  22. Mel says:

    I’m a big snow guy, but the last thing cities and towns need right now is costly snow removal and cleanup. :(

  23. JpDave says:

    6Z NAM Kuchera Snow

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020032206/051/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6Z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2020032206/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Probably a little more realistic than the regular NAM

    FWIW, GFS has ZERO Snow. All rain in SNE

  24. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post!

  25. JpDave says:

    re: Food another supplies home delivery

    Here is a little service that our daughter turned us onto.

    It is called shipt Website: https://shop.shipt.com/

    It is $8.95 per month when one does an annual subscription.

    In my area, here are the stores that will deliver:

    Sur La Table
    Petco
    Roche Bros.
    Target
    CVS
    Star Market
    Shaw’s

    For some of this, it may be worth a look.