Monday Forecast

156 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)
3 low pressure systems will impact the region during the next 5 days. The first one arrives later today and tonight and there is not much change to the previous forecast. There will be cold enough air for several inches of snow favoring higher elevations of interior locations, but some snow will occur closer to Boston as well, while southeastern MA and RI end up receiving mainly rain from the system. Its cause will be a low pressure system exiting the Mid Atlantic and passing just south of New England. The pressure gradient between it and high pressure in eastern Canada will get the wind going pretty decently, with gusts in the 40-50 MPH range from the east over Cape Cod tonight. But this thing will be moving steadily away on Tuesday, which will show some improvement, but probably not complete clearing. The next low will approach on Wednesday, a day that likely starts dry but ends rather wet. We’ll have to see how much cold air is around for some interior higher elevation mix/snow but most of the region looks like it will receive rain from this system. Will monitor for changes. Another break on Thursday, but by Friday the next low pressure area approaches, the center of this one destined to pass north of the region, allowing the system to be accompanied by a little bit of a warm up and rain showers.
TODAY: Clouds allow periods of dimmed sunshine for a while before thickening up. Late-day snow develops except rain South Coast of RI & MA to South Shore of MA. Highs 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain South Coast RI & MA and South Shore MA with snow elsewhere evening, changing to rain southeast to northwest before tapering off overnight. Snow accumulation before changeover: coating to 2 inches Boston-Providence corridor including I-95 belt and I-495 belt south of I-90, 2-4 inches I-495 belt north of I-90 including Merrimack Valley and southeastern NH as well as southern Worcester County and through northwestern RI and eastern CT, 4-6 inches northern Worcester County to southwestern NH with isolated greater-than-6 inch amounts possible in highest elevations. Lows 31-38 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH Cape Cod / Islands.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start, then partial sun developing. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Afternoon rain arriving, some mix higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain evening, ending overnight. Temperatures rising to 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Some precipitation, probably rain, for a portion of the March 28-29 weekend as another in a series of low pressure areas moves through. Briefly drier to end March then the next storm threat arrives April 1.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)
Current indications continue for a tendency for high pressure in eastern Canada and a series of low pressure waves passing south of or over southern New England. This would be a cool and unsettled set-up.

156 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Thanks TK!

      Storm not quite far south enough. Wouldn’t have taken too many more miles though I imagine for widespread snow around here.

      1. Actually a little further south and lighter intensity would have been mix/rain.

        Meteorology… Not mid Winter atmosphere.

  3. Tk, what do you think about the HRRR? Seems to be a little more robust than
    other models for snow. Thanks

  5. Just received a text from the City of Boston highlighted the age breakdown
    of coronavirus cases in Massachusetts. Kind of dispells the notion that it
    only affects the elderly!!!!

    https://imgur.com/a/1rkrKug

    Note: Largest age category is 40-49.

    1. There was a misunderstanding there where the mortality rate is higher among the elderly that people were starting to translate as people that are not elderly don’t get it.

      The numbers that they have there are right.

      Those people are more likely to fully recover but that doesn’t stop them from carrying it and transmitting it to somebody who can’t recover.

      I think that has been the greatest public misunderstanding in this entire thing so far.

      2. Sadly, yes.

        Btw, it does NOT mean a younger person cannot get a severe
        life-threatening case either, because they certainly can.

        1. Yes, read on CNN that surgeon general says in US, younger people seeing higher incidences of severe symptoms compared to younger people in other countries.

      1. The total population is 6,902,149. The median age is 39.5 years. There are 5,025,804 people 18 years or older.

        The population is distributed as follows:

        Under 5 years: 5.2%
        5-9 years: 5.4%
        10-14 years: 5.7%
        15-19 years: 6.6%
        20-24 years: 7.1%
        25-34 years: 14.3%
        35-44 years: 12.2%
        45-54 years: 13.4%
        55-59 years: 7.1%
        60-64 years: 6.5%
        65-74 years: 9.5%
        75-84 years: 4.7%
        Over 85 years: 2.2%

  8. The storm for tonight the short range high res models are showing moderate to heavy snowfall all the way to i95. (interior NE mass) highest area of uncertainty which always fascinates me

    1. Good for you Jimmy! It may very well be your last for the season. 🙂

      Although is your area due for a bit more (few inches?) this evening before the changeover?

  12. From Ryan Hanrahan
    We’re watching for a heavy thump of snow later today – especially late this afternoon. While the hills are most at risk for a few inches I can’t rule out a quick 1″-2″ in lower elevations.

  14. Yet another fire on the Hampton Beach strip.

    I don’t know exact location yet. Hampton and Seabrook FD at scene.

  15. Is Baker closing non essential businesses like what Lamont is doing in CT? When I am reading urging it doesn’t sound like he is closing non essential businesses.

    1. He make it more clear in his answers to questions. He said to close nonessential businesses is not a request, it is an order

      1. Unfortunately even though the RMV doesn’t appear on this essential list – I believe I will have to go in and we are still staying open in a limited capacity.

  22. Quick question, why do we have tests of the Emergency Broadcast system? Never heard go off thankfully but why is it there and why do we get the tests. Is federally focused and off a terror attack/ nuke …. Just wondering ????

    1. I presume your assumptions are correct. Possible if there were some sort
      of catastrophic earthquake affect a large area. Impending strike by meteor
      or comet etc. Just my guesses.

  24. I am in on pretty good snow right now. Coating on the grass. I am enjoying what could be the last time I see snow until later this year.

  27. The good part this time of year with the snow falling during the daylight hours it won’t stick to the pavement unless it really comes down hard.

  29. HEAVY Snow now in Coventry, CT. Everything is covered except the driveway and road which are still wet. Temp 32F.

    It had been snowing lightly since 9AM but was not accumulating. Really has picked up now.

  32. Looking at the radar this is the first time I had dark blue over me since December. The dark blue indicating burst of heavier snowfall.

    1. Interestingly enough I was thinking about their loved ones trying desperately to get tested when I heard this morning that Harvey Weinstein was diagnosed with the virus and is now in isolation. Likely no waiting, etc.

  40. First flakes flying in Boston (well JP anyway) AND it started right as snow, not rain.
    Temp 39.

  45. For a snowier outcome, it is helpful that a majority of this lead precip is quickly moderate to heavy. Had it ramped up slower, it would be playing out a bit differently.

    1. Could this be the Spring surprise we always knew “could” happen?
      Ah, probably not. Just a tease with an inch or 2, then RAIN!
      But one can dream.

  47. Really coming down here at the moment, sticking to everything and now starting to accumulate on the pavement due to the intensity. About 2” on the grass and deck.

  51. 38 degrees and still snowing decently, but until that temperature drops to
    the 35 degree range or so, there will be no accumulation.

    Looks BEAUTIFUL though.

  53. Everything mostly on track, maybe 1-2 hours ahead of schedule time-wise.

    I’m leaning toward the upper half of my snow ranges in all areas, but otherwise the forecast remains the same as originally posted on the last 3 blogs.

    1. Remember areas to the SW have already had some of their accumulation, so
      those amounts will not show on this map.

    2. Nice shot. Looks like you are very close to flipping to Rain. See what you can do to keep it away!

    1. KEEP the WAA away!!!
      Well allow enough to keep the snow going, but not enough to transition to
      RAIN!

  61. Out here in Amherst about 1″ on grassy and the typically cold surfaces. Otherwise bare ground or a slushy coating. Snow moderately and 32 degrees.

  62. Plow just went by and cleared the slush off the road. Wasn’t expecting to hear that sound again this year!

    Unfortunately we have flipped to light rain here now…33F.

  64. Snow falling hard in Boston, deep blue radar but not sticking on ANY surface. Typical spring snow. Oh well. 🙂

    1. Give it a bit. Just started sticking here and I’m 12 miles NW. We need the combo of falling darkness and heavier snowfall. Both are underway. Even though sunset is not for 2 hours & change, the angle is low enough that the radiation is pretty much a done deal for today.

    1. We started to accumulate about 90 minutes into the snowfall and I’ve at 0.2 very quickly as of 4:44PM.

        1. Closer to 2 than coating. I wouldn’t worry about moving it. Everything melts on its own tomorrow.

      2. I think they’ll be ok. Road temps above freezing and it’s not going to go down any more. Boston is in the process of changing to rain now so that should take care of it very soon.

  70. Mother Nature giving us a consolation prize today for a dud of a winter if you love the snow.

        1. 1.79. But that is liquid my station is recording and not snow measurement. But we have had steady rain for a bit

    1. That bright banding on the radar. Heavy precip enough to cool the column. Seeing lots of posts on Facebook about heavy snow in northern mass.

  82. About .75 inches of heavy wet snow before rain. Pissed rain last night. 2.20 inches worth!
    Wow!

    1. Logan only a Trace. I am fairly confident my neighborhood received measurable snow though. Rooftops, cartops, branches and grasses were completely covered before the changeover. Not to mention my front steps.

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