Monday Forecast

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)
3 low pressure systems will impact the region during the next 5 days. The first one arrives later today and tonight and there is not much change to the previous forecast. There will be cold enough air for several inches of snow favoring higher elevations of interior locations, but some snow will occur closer to Boston as well, while southeastern MA and RI end up receiving mainly rain from the system. Its cause will be a low pressure system exiting the Mid Atlantic and passing just south of New England. The pressure gradient between it and high pressure in eastern Canada will get the wind going pretty decently, with gusts in the 40-50 MPH range from the east over Cape Cod tonight. But this thing will be moving steadily away on Tuesday, which will show some improvement, but probably not complete clearing. The next low will approach on Wednesday, a day that likely starts dry but ends rather wet. We’ll have to see how much cold air is around for some interior higher elevation mix/snow but most of the region looks like it will receive rain from this system. Will monitor for changes. Another break on Thursday, but by Friday the next low pressure area approaches, the center of this one destined to pass north of the region, allowing the system to be accompanied by a little bit of a warm up and rain showers.
TODAY: Clouds allow periods of dimmed sunshine for a while before thickening up. Late-day snow develops except rain South Coast of RI & MA to South Shore of MA. Highs 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain South Coast RI & MA and South Shore MA with snow elsewhere evening, changing to rain southeast to northwest before tapering off overnight. Snow accumulation before changeover: coating to 2 inches Boston-Providence corridor including I-95 belt and I-495 belt south of I-90, 2-4 inches I-495 belt north of I-90 including Merrimack Valley and southeastern NH as well as southern Worcester County and through northwestern RI and eastern CT, 4-6 inches northern Worcester County to southwestern NH with isolated greater-than-6 inch amounts possible in highest elevations. Lows 31-38 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH Cape Cod / Islands.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start, then partial sun developing. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Afternoon rain arriving, some mix higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain evening, ending overnight. Temperatures rising to 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Some precipitation, probably rain, for a portion of the March 28-29 weekend as another in a series of low pressure areas moves through. Briefly drier to end March then the next storm threat arrives April 1.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)
Current indications continue for a tendency for high pressure in eastern Canada and a series of low pressure waves passing south of or over southern New England. This would be a cool and unsettled set-up.

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156 Responses to Monday Forecast

    • Philip says:

      Thanks TK!

      Storm not quite far south enough. Wouldn’t have taken too many more miles though I imagine for widespread snow around here.

      • Woods Hill Weather says:

        Actually a little further south and lighter intensity would have been mix/rain.

        Meteorology… Not mid Winter atmosphere.

  1. JpDave says:

    Good morning and thank you TK.

  2. JpDave says:

    Tk, what do you think about the HRRR? Seems to be a little more robust than
    other models for snow. Thanks

  3. JpDave says:

    Just received a text from the City of Boston highlighted the age breakdown
    of coronavirus cases in Massachusetts. Kind of dispells the notion that it
    only affects the elderly!!!!

    https://imgur.com/a/1rkrKug

    Note: Largest age category is 40-49.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      There was a misunderstanding there where the mortality rate is higher among the elderly that people were starting to translate as people that are not elderly don’t get it.

      The numbers that they have there are right.

      Those people are more likely to fully recover but that doesn’t stop them from carrying it and transmitting it to somebody who can’t recover.

      I think that has been the greatest public misunderstanding in this entire thing so far.

      • Vicki says:

        Id sure agree with you, TK.

      • JpDave says:

        Sadly, yes.

        Btw, it does NOT mean a younger person cannot get a severe
        life-threatening case either, because they certainly can.

        • Tom says:

          Yes, read on CNN that surgeon general says in US, younger people seeing higher incidences of severe symptoms compared to younger people in other countries.

        • Woods Hill Weather says:

          Exactly. There is no room for complacency.

    • coastal says:

      What is the population of each age group?

      • JpDave says:

        The total population is 6,902,149. The median age is 39.5 years. There are 5,025,804 people 18 years or older.

        The population is distributed as follows:

        Under 5 years: 5.2%
        5-9 years: 5.4%
        10-14 years: 5.7%
        15-19 years: 6.6%
        20-24 years: 7.1%
        25-34 years: 14.3%
        35-44 years: 12.2%
        45-54 years: 13.4%
        55-59 years: 7.1%
        60-64 years: 6.5%
        65-74 years: 9.5%
        75-84 years: 4.7%
        Over 85 years: 2.2%

  4. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

  5. Vicki says:

    Good writeup, SAK.

    Thank you, TK.

    Sounds like a fun type, very little nuisance storm.

  6. matt says:

    The storm for tonight the short range high res models are showing moderate to heavy snowfall all the way to i95. (interior NE mass) highest area of uncertainty which always fascinates me

  7. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks TK
    Woke up to it snowing and have a coating on the grass, car, and roof.

    • Philip says:

      Good for you Jimmy! It may very well be your last for the season. :-)

      Although is your area due for a bit more (few inches?) this evening before the changeover?

  8. JimmyJames says:

    From Ryan Hanrahan
    We’re watching for a heavy thump of snow later today – especially late this afternoon. While the hills are most at risk for a few inches I can’t rule out a quick 1″-2″ in lower elevations.

  9. Vicki says:

    Baker talking. Stay at home in MA ordered. Thank God he smartened up.

  10. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Yet another fire on the Hampton Beach strip.

    I don’t know exact location yet. Hampton and Seabrook FD at scene.

  11. JimmyJames says:

    Is Baker closing non essential businesses like what Lamont is doing in CT? When I am reading urging it doesn’t sound like he is closing non essential businesses.

  12. Dr. Stupid says:

    Here is a list they put out of essential operations: https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-essential-services/download

  13. WeatherWiz says:

    TK, what’s a snow predication for Windham NH? Thanks!

  14. Retrac says:

    Just started snowing here. So much for my no snow in March Worcester call.

  15. Aidan says:

    Quick question, why do we have tests of the Emergency Broadcast system? Never heard go off thankfully but why is it there and why do we get the tests. Is federally focused and off a terror attack/ nuke …. Just wondering ????

    • JpDave says:

      I presume your assumptions are correct. Possible if there were some sort
      of catastrophic earthquake affect a large area. Impending strike by meteor
      or comet etc. Just my guesses.

    • Mark says:

      EBS got activated here in CT a couple times last year with tornado warnings.

  16. JpDave says:

    Looks like Mark should be getting in pretty good right about now.

  17. JimmyJames says:

    I am in on pretty good snow right now. Coating on the grass. I am enjoying what could be the last time I see snow until later this year.

  18. JimmyJames says:

    HREF ensembles thanks to Ryan Hanrahan posting this on his twitter page.
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1242119061552668674

  19. JpDave says:

    15Z back up

    https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020032315/016/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    that was kuchera. look at 10:1

    https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020032315/016/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    which means the HRRR wants it to snow a lot, but just not accumulate that well.

  20. JimmyJames says:

    The good part this time of year with the snow falling during the daylight hours it won’t stick to the pavement unless it really comes down hard.

  21. Vicki says:

    Seeing a few snowflakes on and off in south Sutton

  22. Mark says:

    HEAVY Snow now in Coventry, CT. Everything is covered except the driveway and road which are still wet. Temp 32F.

    It had been snowing lightly since 9AM but was not accumulating. Really has picked up now.

  23. JimmyJames says:

    Updated snow map from Ryan Hanrahan. Mark looks like both of us are in the 1-3 inch area but I would not be surprised to see us closer to the three if the snow can continue like this for a few more hours before the switch to rain.
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1242130262533824513

  24. Dr. Stupid says:

    Snow maps from around the dial https://i.imgur.com/3yGL4cj.jpg

  25. JimmyJames says:

    Looking at the radar this is the first time I had dark blue over me since December. The dark blue indicating burst of heavier snowfall.

  26. JimmyJames says:

    The snow is sticking to the pavement where I am as the intensity has picked up.

  27. Vicki says:

    Aiden, JPD, Longshot. How are your family members doing?

    I hope I didn’t miss anyone.

    • Philip says:

      Interestingly enough I was thinking about their loved ones trying desperately to get tested when I heard this morning that Harvey Weinstein was diagnosed with the virus and is now in isolation. Likely no waiting, etc.

  28. Mark says:

    Winter wonderland here!

    1.5″ so far and continued heavy snow. Sticking to everything…

  29. Vicki says:

    A request from Pope Francis. Makes great sense to me.

    https://imgur.com/a/jYs6DBo

  30. JpDave says:

    High resolution models waivering back and forth with amounts of snow.

  31. JimmyJames says:

    12z EURO with the 10:1. I be more interested to see if JpDave posts the 12z EURO.
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2020032312&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  32. JpDave says:

    First flakes flying in Boston (well JP anyway) AND it started right as snow, not rain.
    Temp 39.

  33. Tom says:

    Mixed snow and rain here in Marshfield.

  34. JpDave says:

    Snow ramped right up here. Snowing pretty decently now, bordering on moderate snow
    already.

  35. Vicki says:

    Fairly solid coating here. Just lovely

  36. Vicki says:

    Friend in York, ME, said beaches are closed. How sad that people force this

  37. Tom says:

    For a snowier outcome, it is helpful that a majority of this lead precip is quickly moderate to heavy. Had it ramped up slower, it would be playing out a bit differently.

  38. JpDave says:

    17Z HRRR keeping the on again off again pattern with every other run.

    This is backed off yet again.

    https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020032317/018/snku_acc.us_ne.png

  39. South Central says:

    Really coming down here at the moment, sticking to everything and now starting to accumulate on the pavement due to the intensity. About 2” on the grass and deck.

  40. JpDave says:

    This is the 18Z map depiction for 3PM.
    WRONG!!!!

    https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020032318/001/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

    so, it could be WRONG on the snow amounts as well.

  41. JimmyJames says:

    Just measured 2.5 inches and now the snow transitioning to light rain.

  42. JimmyJames says:

    I will take it. The last time it snowed this hard where I am was in early December.

  43. JpDave says:

    38 degrees and still snowing decently, but until that temperature drops to
    the 35 degree range or so, there will be no accumulation.

    Looks BEAUTIFUL though.

  44. Longshot says:

    Very light snow in Swampscott.

  45. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Everything mostly on track, maybe 1-2 hours ahead of schedule time-wise.

    I’m leaning toward the upper half of my snow ranges in all areas, but otherwise the forecast remains the same as originally posted on the last 3 blogs.

  46. Mark says:

    3″ here in Coventry CT and still snowing moderately. Temp holding at 32F.

    Beautiful scene outside. Just took this shot….

    https://imgur.com/EbBxvcx

  47. JpDave says:

    RadarScope display showing a reasonable approximation of the rain/snow line.

    https://imgur.com/a/qvepzNy

    • JpDave says:

      KEEP the WAA away!!!
      Well allow enough to keep the snow going, but not enough to transition to
      RAIN!

  48. JpDave says:

    Distribution of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Massachusetts as of 4PM yesterday.

    https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-as-of-march-22-2020/download

  49. JpDave says:

    Down to 35. I expect grass to start getting covered now.

  50. JpDave says:

    Slush forming o roof tops, cars and grass.

  51. JMA says:

    Out here in Amherst about 1″ on grassy and the typically cold surfaces. Otherwise bare ground or a slushy coating. Snow moderately and 32 degrees.

  52. Mark says:

    Plow just went by and cleared the slush off the road. Wasn’t expecting to hear that sound again this year!

    Unfortunately we have flipped to light rain here now…33F.

  53. Mark says:

    Snow totals thus far from the NWS:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    Accidental left the caps lock on when I submitted my report. Oops!

  54. Philip says:

    Snow falling hard in Boston, deep blue radar but not sticking on ANY surface. Typical spring snow. Oh well. :-)

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      Give it a bit. Just started sticking here and I’m 12 miles NW. We need the combo of falling darkness and heavier snowfall. Both are underway. Even though sunset is not for 2 hours & change, the angle is low enough that the radiation is pretty much a done deal for today.

  55. JpDave says:

    snow coating grass, roof tops and car tops.

  56. JpDave says:

    wow! Snowing like hell. All white now.

  57. Philip says:

    TK – You were spot on as usual. C.A.D. for the coastal plain as well! :-)

  58. Vicki says:

    On all surfaces here including road. We have about 1.5.

  59. JpDave says:

    I am impressed. Have not seen it snow this hard on quite some time!!

    • South shore Kid says:

      Old salty is the city salting or it’s not needed . I was out today .

      • JpDave says:

        dint know

      • Woods Hill Weather says:

        I think they’ll be ok. Road temps above freezing and it’s not going to go down any more. Boston is in the process of changing to rain now so that should take care of it very soon.

  60. JimmyJames says:

    Mother Nature giving us a consolation prize today for a dud of a winter if you love the snow.

  61. Vicki says:

    Trump talking

  62. Retrac says:

    Looks like maybe 3” here so far.

  63. Retrac says:

    Sleet now. Looks like 3” will do it.

  64. Vicki says:

    Sleet and rain here also. Roads and walks cleared themselves

  65. North says:

    Thanks TK. I have about .75 of rain here so far.

  66. South shore Kid says:

    Absolutely been pouring in pembroke for some time

  67. Vicki says:

    https://twitter.com/BreakngNewsPhtg/status/1242254868838060038

    Sutton. Right near the one we had a couple of weeks ago …according to a mutual weather friend

  68. Tom says:

    Bright red radar echos along the Mass Pike now.

  69. North says:

    Closing in on an inch here.

  70. Tjammer says:

    Crazy heavy snow right now in Andover…. after some rain. About 3”

    • Tom says:

      That bright banding on the radar. Heavy precip enough to cool the column. Seeing lots of posts on Facebook about heavy snow in northern mass.

  71. Hadi says:

    Just pouring rain here. The winter they never wanted to produce in Boston.

  72. JpDave says:

    About .75 inches of heavy wet snow before rain. Pissed rain last night. 2.20 inches worth!
    Wow!

    • Philip says:

      Logan only a Trace. I am fairly confident my neighborhood received measurable snow though. Rooftops, cartops, branches and grasses were completely covered before the changeover. Not to mention my front steps.

  73. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post…