Tuesday Forecast

95 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)
Last night’s storm behaved pretty much as expected with most snow falling over interior locations north and west of Boston, some snow elsewhere then mainly rain, some of it heavy, which made a nice dent in the significant precipitation deficit we had for early 2020. Today we get a break between low pressure systems as one departs and the other starts to take shape to our southwest. That one impacts the region tomorrow in a slightly less cold atmosphere, and also tracking a little further south and a little weaker, so this one will be more of a rain event and not as heavy, the bulk of it occurring late day and evening. The next one will be weaker still, and tracking north of the region, with a few rain showers favoring early Friday. And the low pressure parade continues with the next threat over the coming weekend.
TODAY: Cloudy start, then partial sun developing. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Afternoon rain favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Any rain ending. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers morning. Highs 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
Low pressure brings a chance of rain March 29. High pressure brings drier weather March 30-31. Next low pressure system brings threat of rain later April 1 into April 2. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)
Cooler/drier April 3-4. Precipitation threat with low pressure in vicinity April 5-7.

95 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    Logan recorded a Trace. Snowfall to date remains at 15.1”.

    TK – Is snow on the table for April 5-7 or we done?

  2. According to Ch. 7 news last night, the coronavirus can also produce symptoms of lack of taste and/or smell. Anyone else heard of that?

        1. This might be a positive since it could be an early indicator or even an indicator for those who are not ever symptomatic. IF people listen and so far the fact too many are not is the scariest part to me.

          1. What the hell good does that do if one cannot
            get a GD test!!

            Ya think they would relax the testing requirement to include those with sudden loss of smell?

            The way things are going, I think not.

            This country should be ashamed the way
            this thing has been handled.

            NOT lashing out at you, just expressing my frustration.

            In all probability my son had this damn virus and
            the ****ers would NOT test him! His doc prescribed a Z-PACK for pneumonia due to his shortness of breath and tightness in the chest symptoms, which by the way has really helped. Which makes me believe all the
            more that he had/has it. Unless all are tested later, we’ll Never know for sure.

            If someone with symptoms can’t get tested, how
            many asymptomatic people are roaming around out there?????

            End of rant (for now, likely more in the coming days)

          2. Dave – I fully understand your frustration. I cannot believe your son has not been tested. I did read somewhere that you can tell from a blood test if you have had it. BUT and it is a big BUT, I am not positive that is accurate.

            It is really good to hear the Zpak is helping. I think what would really help is if the president stood in front of the camera, stopped posturing and actually told us the truth. Baker is doing better both with plans and with keeping his temper in check. And I get the confusion. This is all new. But just tell the truth.

            I was thinking if one of the symptoms is lack of taste and smell early on that it might help people who cannot be tested decide to self quarantine. And I absolutely agree that the testing needs to be relaxed to include these folks.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Consistent with how infectious diseases spread the epicenter of Covid-19 shifted from China to Italy, and now it’s shifting to Spain , with the U.S. next on its trajectory. Spanish deaths are soaring. It may be worse there than Italy. Time will tell. Italy’s still bad, but I predict steady decreases in deaths and cases over the next few days as the lockdown bears fruit. I do NOT think the U.S. will be impacted as badly as Italy or Spain (better hospital care in U.S., less contagion per capital if you will, less densely populated), but we must remain vigilant. Look for a shift in U.S. epicenter from NYC to parts of California over the coming week. NY has its act together on testing and overall preparedness. California does NOT (partly the federal government’s fault). This means underreporting of cases in that state.

    There’s also underreporting of Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. due to the continuing testing problems. I don’t think it’s a huge problem, but it certainly exists as many patients who died of pneumonia have not been tested for the presence of coronavirus.

    2. I am not so sure the NY problem doesn’t move Eastward throughout
      Massachusetts. Clearly our testing is sub-par and there are probably
      thousands of infected persons walking the streets here. Watch for that.

    3. Death rate in Italy, now 9.5%
      In Spain it is 6.7%

      Of course this is #deaths/# confirmed cases

      If one wants to calculate death rate by total infected persons, it would be
      much much lower.

  12. According to Sunday’s Boston Herald, paramedics across this state soon will be able to go directly to people’s homes and perform coronavirus tests. EMTs would insert swabs into the nose of a would-be patient. The first training course for EMT supervisors were held last Saturday in Dedham.

  13. I’ll confirm this with what my son says . He works for Foxboro Fire who is fire/ paramedic . That will tie them up big time for more serious calls and I realize saying serious over what we are going through is strange to say but I think you all know what I mean

    1. First…..and most important……please thank you son. I say prayers for your brother and will add your son.

      I don’t know how the house to house is set up to work. I would hope that one person is designated. And do worry about exposing our first responders more than they are already exposed. They need to be able to remain healthy to do their jobs.

      1. Thank you very much . You are too sweet .Prayers for you and your family also. My brother is doing much better but still very weak . He will be fine

  14. The heights of corona virus will go from East and West coasts inwards. The Epicenter by country is in Europe. By USA state its California and NY. china closed down pretty much about 2ish months. They are starting to open things up. So I think we have at least 2 more months of this crap. May is going to be very bad but by July we could see our ability to start getting things back to some what normal at least closer to the coasts.

  15. Thanks, TK…
    Hope everyone is staying well. Praying for Aidan, Longshot and everyone.

    Nice rainfall last night! 1.38 in the bucket, the most precipitation since November 24.

    How’s Mom doing, TK?
    Dave, how about Mrs. OS?

  17. U.S. now at 49,257, with over 30 states still to report today.

    My second homeland – Holland (only 17 million inhabitants) – is severely affected. 63 more deaths today, 850 new cases, death rate close to 5%, ICUs almost maxed out across the country. Holland hasn’t peaked yet, according to public health officials.

    I’m puzzled why the story below isn’t front and center in the news reporting. So many people, including politicians and even some academics, are saying this is an old person’s disease. It’s not only an old person’s disease. The numbers of young people in ICUs in Europe and the U.S. is very high – approaching 50%. Most of the young do survive. But, ICU means this is quite severe for some young people.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-big-difference-between-europe-and-china-says-us-infectious-disease-expert-fauci-2020-03-22?mod=bnbh

    1. This is really bad news.
      A few reasons for exceleration, imho:
      1. LACK of testing
      2. People just NOT heeding the stay at home request
      3. People going to stores when they are sick
      4. this new thing where one can be asymptomatic with lack of smell and taste
      walking around all over
      5. This may be a bit of a stretch, but I wonder if grocery/food delivery staff are working sick and people are being infected from handling their new food
      coming into the house???

      Where will it end.

      Cuomo the other day said he expected 80% of New York citizens to become
      infected.

      1. i been washing everything that has been touched by other people, and have put my sneakers in a garbage bag at the door of my apartment

        1. We just spent a bunch of time cleaning some more things.
          We’re going to run out of Clorox wipes, but we
          have a Lysol cleaner, lysol spray and about a gallon
          of bleach available.

  20. My thoughts and agnostic prayers for all at WHW who’ve been affected by Covid-19.

    Also, JP Dave, you had indeed discussed the news I posted on the virus impacting younger patients. My apologies for the duplication.

    I posted an article on Germany the outlier, for anyone interested. As an analyst I had to assume a neutral stance. You all know I’m a little skeptical about the numbers. But, I couldn’t insert that into an analysis piece.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/03/23/germany-an-outlier-with-very-low-coronavirus-case-fatality-rate-and-minimal-number-of-patients-in-critical-condition/#6a24bcc43a0e

      1. btw, you write extremely well. great job.

        here you don’t have to be neutral. So what do you think the real reason is? Do you think Germany is hiding the true number
        of deaths? Or is something really going on there that makes
        that huge difference?

  21. Trump now wants the country up and running by Easter. As much as I don’t like the restrictions I believe they could prevent a bigger problem. If you open the country up to soon things could get worse. I am not a medical expert just my opinion.

    1. im thinking June at some point we will see thing going back to normal at least for areas around the coastal areas.

      1. I agree, I despite the man in almost every way and this virus has just proven it more. My reasoning for the June period is because of the size of our country and the 2 months its taken for China to start opening places back up

  22. I know multiple states have cancelled the rest of the school year and I think your going to see more states do the same. Here in CT Governor Lamont in a radio interview this morning say public schools would likely be closed for the rest of the year. Yesterday Lamont said the earliest schools could go back is April 20th.

  23. Anxiously awaiting the new numbers for Massachusetts. Should be out around
    4 PM or a little after.

  24. My sports prediction: NBA, NHL, MLB seasons cancelled and NFL Training Camps delayed starts. With Summer Olympics postponed how do you justify these other sports resuming in any form?

  26. Good afternoon all…

    Philip… As for your sports predictions. I do think that MLB will try to play a partial season. As for the “winter” sports, we’ll see. I’m 50/50. Tokyo 2020 becoming Tokyo 2021 is the right move for everyone involved. And as for your question about April 5-7: I am not ruling out early April snow yet. I’ll be watching the pattern, but we may reload for another shot of snow before we flip things back to the other pattern.

    Captain…Mom’s taking 3 days off (this is her 2nd day off), resuming Thursday. Doing excellently. Just a little discomfort and the doctor said a short break was the best thing. Very encouraged otherwise.

  27. Not that the CFS has been stellar, but the latest trends are dry for every remaining month of 2020 except September & December. And while it doesn’t necessarily reflect in the 2m temp forecast, the upper pattern indicates a warm mid spring, a seasonable late spring, a typically warm summer, and a trend from warm toward colder (with respect to average) from September through December.

    1. I think Trump took it down!!!!!
      This was the scariest video on coronavirus you’ll ever see. Very factual from a board certified general Surgeon.

        1. I just figured out why I couldn’t see it. I was still connected to work via a VPN and work did allow me
          to connect. I just disconnected and I can see it fine.

          The question is, did you watch the whole thing?

  32. It’s been novel and interesting watching many of Boston’s TV meteorologists “working from home”. Pete was especially funny last night when he was referencing that it was time to eat dinner. We need some interjections of humor in all of this. He’s definitely good for it.

    Kevin L. on ch 25 has a green screen at home. Pretty damn cool.

      1. The young forecaster at 10 pm on NBC-10/NECN has his forecasts and maps projected on his interior walls of his living room! 🙂

  33. Thanks TK and great to hear your Mom is doing well.

    Here is a final snowmap with observed totals for SNE from the NWS. Overall a good snow forecast by TK and the map the NWS put out was pretty good too…

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1242395357041942529/photo/1

    Total observed snow for all of the Northeast with a good swath of 6-12″ across eastern Upstate NY, VT, NH, and ME…

    https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1242522800264445952?s=20

    Dave – if you didn’t catch my post from yesterday, I ended up with 3.0″ in Coventry which brings me to just shy of 27″ on the season. I have officially surpassed my total from the crap winter of 2011-2012 (just barely).

    1. Yes, I got it. I have been so busy, I have a couple of events to add to
      the spreadsheet. We are literally in survival mode here.

  34. Yesterday was the one year anniversary of what Ryan Hanrahan called “Tolland County’s Private Snowstorm”. I received 6.5″ of snow while 6 miles away to our west in Manchester there was nothing. It was an upslope/convergence driven snow event. One of the most freak snow events I have experienced, second only to the Oct 4, 1987 snowstorm in Upstate NY…

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1242164208344518663?s=20

    1. Remember that well. As I recall, you posted your experience on this blog.

      Also, thanks for posting the snow totals in NY state. I believe you hail from update NY. They’ve actually had a healthy amount of snow this winter. A friend in Albany mentioned this to me. My sister in Vermont has had a nice amount, too. Hopefully, next year we in SNE will get our fill. I think we deserve it. Not that mother nature really cares about what we deserve.

      Mark, are you close to Union, CT, where the Travelers Bookstore is (was)? I used to love going there.

      2. Yes, I am from Amsterdam, NY originally (25 miles NW of Albany). We were just up there this past weekend visiting my mother and brought her some toilet paper that she was almost completely out of and couldn’t find at the stores up there! Got some fresh air and did a nice hike in the southern Adirondacks while we were there as well. There was actually a fair amount of snow still on the trail near the top. This was before the storm yesterday. She texted me yesterday that they received 6.5″

        I am not too far from Union, maybe 20 minutes SW of there off of I-84. Union is right on the MA line near Sturbridge. Havent been to that bookstore before!

        1. Thanks.

          Don’t know if the bookstore exists. It was a cafe/bookstore combination. Mostly comfort food, and you’d get a free book with your meal. Mind you, the books were used, but in good shape.

          Love upstate NY. Know the Albany area well, including towns like Kinderhook to the south and Bolton’s Landing to the north (foothills of Adirondacks). Also know the Amsterdam, NY region. Nice that you were able to visit your Mom there this past weekend.

  35. Final tally for the day on U.S. new cases and deaths. All states have now reported. It’s 11,074, or about 1,000 more new cases than yesterday; 222 new deaths; 1,175 in critical condition. There’s good and bad news. I’ve already given the bad news: Continued growth (spread). The good news is the growth is not exponential. It’s close, but it doesn’t appear exponential. We must remain vigilant, however, as we’re clearly in a very difficult phase.

    Spain is definitely catching up to Italy if you look at growth rate. Tomorrow it will easily surpass China in terms of deaths, and I believe Spain may be on its way to vying for the worst epicenter soon. Very sad news. The authorities there have not handled the crisis well, or instituted a proper lockdown. There is good news in Italy if you analyze the disaggregated data (as I just did). There’s significant contraction, which means more concentration of new cases in a small number of regions (with certain places no longer reporting new cases). I believe we’ll see steady declines in new cases by this weekend as their lockdown is being more systematically enforced.

    1. Approx. 54,900 total cases in the US and 780 deaths as of today. A death rate of 1.4% which seems to be holding steady or slowly declining. Fortunately much less than the original WHO estimates and pretty likely in actuality, it is less than 1% if you factor in all the people who are probably have CV in a mild form and never get tested.

      Of those cases in the US, its pretty incredible that nearly half of them are in NY and most in the NYC area. If you look outside of NY, the rest of the country has fared pretty well so far with about 30,000 cases. Sounds like a big number but it’s easy to lose sight that the population of this country is about 327,000,000. You are still looking at less than two tenths of a percent of the population effected.

      Granted these numbers are still going to go up for awhile longer with more being tested, but as you say, the growth is far from exponential and with much of the country on a semi-lock down now, we should hopefully be approaching the peak of that curve in the next week or two in most areas.

  36. A couple shots from our hike on Hadley Mountain in NW Saratoga County on Saturday. First shot is looking SW at Sacandaga Lake and the second is looking north towards Gore Mountain. You can see a couple of the snow covered ski trails on the southeast side of the mountain.

    https://imgur.com/RVM8OOC

    https://imgur.com/vAs1w8q

    With everything else pretty much closed, it was a nice diversion to get out of the house into the fresh air and do some hiking in the woods. Highly recommend it if you have some nice trails in your area. Hoping to get back out Saturday as long as the wet weather holds off.

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