Monday Forecast

79 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
A blocking pattern (high pressure eastern Canada, upper level low pressure over the US Northeast, will remain in place, keeping us in a cool and unsettled regime. There are no significant changes to yesterday’s discussion so just going to update the forecast below.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog this morning. Scattered rain showers, favoring mid to late afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered rain or snow showers overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered rain or snow showers favoring early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly afternoon and favoring eastern coastal areas. Highs 43-50. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain evening, favoring eastern coastal areas. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)
Blocking weakens briefly then reloads. It lets things shuffle a bit with dry, cool weather then a brief warm up April 4-5 before cool/unsettled weather chances increase again mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)
Leaning toward cooler than average but drier than average weather overall for this 5-day period with a strong enough blocking pattern to keep a lot of the storminess to the south and east of the region.

79 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Pretty exciting at your house. Happy no damage from the strike. Must have been
    extremely loud. I can’t imagine.

  3. Just found out that the wife of one of my co-workers has covid-19 and is hospitalized. She is young, only in her 30s. So far he and his 2 children are symptom free. I knew it was just a matter of time before someone in my office would be affected by this. It starts to get closer and closer to home for all of us As we have already seen right here on the blog.

      1. I’m sorry to hear about your co-worker’s wife.

        There is more good news to report on Covid-19, however, though I am a little skeptical about the Sunday data effect. Worldwide new cases fell sharply. Growth factor is now 0.89. 3rd straight day in which it decreased. Will this be a trend or just a blip? Big question. In Europe, where lockdowns have been in full force for 3 weeks, it appears to be a trend, as Spain and other countries are reporting declines in new cases. Still 5,100 new cases, but that’s lower than it was. I’m more skeptical about U.S. numbers. Very curious to see what Monday delivers in terms of data.

        1. Thank you.

          ON the other, I agree. Given that it was Sunday and the numbers looked a bit funky, I reserve judgement. I sincerely hope it is a downward trend, but I fear it was
          merely a blip.

          These charts show it, but the death chart more dramatically shows it.

          https://imgur.com/a/iACpBwP

          1. Dave I really think it was because of the day being Sunday. We will know at 4 today but I suspect very high numbers today ( hope not

        2. I just saw on the tv news this morning that the UK is under lockdown (for up to 6 months, if necessary) and will be re-evaluated every few weeks if I understand correctly. I wonder if it’s only a matter of time this nation will have to do the same?

  4. Keeping my fingers crossed to a (final?) coating to greet me tomorrow morning. Too bad the blocking has come 1-2 months too late. Oh well. 🙂

  10. Thanks TK
    From Ryan Hanrahan on those thunderstorms last night
    Just caught this – last night’s weather balloon launch from Long Island had 2,100 j/kg of elevated CAPE and 60 kts of effective shear. Even though we were super stable near the ground plenty of instability and wind shear aloft for storms and hail (some near golf ball size in MA).

  14. From NBC 4 Washington. I wonder if other states will follow.
    A stay at home order is issued for Virginians by @GovernorVA
    effective today, following similar action in Maryland. Residents should not leave their homes unless it’s for essential purposes. The order is place until June 10, 2020.

  15. If I was the governor of Virginia I would reassess the situation at the end of April instead of coming out saying you have to stay in your homes until June 10th.

  16. A slug on rain heading Eastward and getting close. Surface temp 42, 850 mb temps
    below freezing now as are even the 925 mb temps. Hmmmm
    If it comes down hard enough, would not surprise me to see snow mixed in
    sooner rather than later.

    2. Whoa. I jumped even knowing it was coming. Is this in addition the pole next to your noise or were both hit same time. And talk about a true old fashioned thunder storm.

      BTW you have an email 🙂

      1. Well initially I thought it was the pole outside that got struck but the main bolt did hit my house.

        I am no longer sure of the locations of any secondary bolts but I do know that my next door neighbors lost a cable box and a couple of other electronics.

    1. Indeed, yet still fewer infected cases than seen Saturday. Also, though 12 states have yet to report, the total daily number of new infected cases in the US projects to be no worse than yesterday and certainly fewer than the day prior. That represents a flattening of the curve albeit an extremely small sample size. Admittedly, not a great day as it pertains to the number of fatalities with a handful of states yet to report.

  19. To mask or not to mask? That is my question.

    I see practically everyone in public wearing one now. Are these healthy, sick, not sure or all of the above? At the beginning of all this, it was recommended that healthy people NOT wear masks. Has that changed?

    At present, I am healthy.

  21. CNN Reporting new one day record with 486 U.S. deaths reported today. Total deaths nearing 3,000.

    1. This is utterly inaccurate. The US experienced more than 500 case fatalities two days ago.

  22. Thanks, TK…

    That was one impressive thunderstorm last night at your home, TK.

    I reread your forecast from yesterday morning and you did mention thunderstorms.
    Well done again, fearless leader.

    I am remembering the major flooding 10 years ago today. On March 29-30, 2010, we had exactly 7″ of rain and March, 2010 measured 16.83, the most in Taunton history and that includes August, 1955.

    I spent most of the morning using “Zoom” with my students, checking in with their well-being and videochatting with them. It was good seeing them again.

    The MIAA just announced that they still plan on trying to get a high school spring sports schedule in for 2020. The first day of games will be May 11 and post-season tournaments will end on June 28.

  24. Very raw today. Really feels like an early spring day in coastal SNE.

    Hope everyone is well. Aidan, hope all is well with you and your family.

    CNN’s reporting on today being the highest death toll from Covid-19 is inaccurate. Can’t entirely blame them as our reporting of data is so darn slipshod and ramshackle. Can’t we just have one repository at CDC to whom all states must report at a certain time (no later, no sooner)? That way we’d all have consistent data. Every day is a jigsaw puzzle for me to figure out new cases and new deaths over a consistent 24 hour period. In any case, the highest daily death toll in the U.S. was Saturday, with, I believe 525. Today’s probably won’t get there but will likely exceed 475. Unfortunately, as I disaggregate the data I get a little discouraged by the strong possibility that data from states like Michigan (where a major outbreak is already underway), Tennessee (testing has hardly been implemented there; more testing will be available Wednesday at the earliest), Louisiana and Florida are underreporting cases, but also deaths.

    Also, we in the U.S. are just not taking shutdowns or lockdowns seriously enough. We’re just going to prolong the agony by doing this: https://twitter.com/JoshuaPCohen1/status/1244735048370266112/photo/1

    The good news comes from most of Europe today as the continent (with the exception of France and Spain; situation there continues to be bleak) has gone just past peak. For example, still very bad in Italy in terms of deaths, but new cases are clearly diminishing.

  27. Joshua – thank you for your thoughtful, accurate, educated and experienced writing on the Covid-19 pandemic. It is go to reading for me on a daily basis.

  29. Sadly, we’ve reached a new high for deaths from Covid-19, 565, and the tally hasn’t stopped for this evening. It is also likely new cases exceed 20,000 for the first time. As we’re all aware this disease does not just affect the elderly and immune-compromised. One of the groups hit – among the dying and dead in this country and worldwide – are relatively young medical professionals. The theory is that they’re exposed to significant viral load on the frontlines. They’re our nation’s heroes, similar to the firefighters, policemen, and first responders on September 11th, 2001. This is obviously a different situation. Nevertheless, the medical professionals doing their job are displaying courage and bravery.

  30. One final note for the day, the nation needs to wake up and take responsibility. We’re not taking this seriously enough. I want the U.S. to be number one in many areas, but not Covid-19. If we want to have our freedoms back and be on a good path towards recovery we’ve got to really shut it down in April, nationwide. Not only were people in NYC acting foolishly by congregating near the warship, also farmers’ markets in California were filled with relatively large crowds yesterday, among which this one. https://twitter.com/DBelardoMD/status/1244624277187497984

    Shelter in place orders are meaningless if the governor in California allows this to happen. Same in New York City.

    1. Beyond belief.

      We need this nationally. And I believe not only can the President do this but many governors want him to. I could give a darn about infringement on personal rights to move about freely. The self centered folks who are not listening are infringing on my right to live and that of all of us who are abiding by requests.

      I need to read this again to completely digest but it is interesting

      https://www.heritage.org/the-constitution/commentary/constitutional-guide-emergency-powers

  31. The way there talking 100,000 – 200, 000 deaths in the U.S. is a best case scenario IF people do what there suppose to be doing and not gathering in large groups as we saw in NYC and at that farmers’ market in California which Joshua posted a picture from twitter.

  32. Clearly not the best day for the US as it pertains to new cases and COVID related deaths though I do see some encouraging signs that I did not see until now. Unfortunately, however, I am also noticing an increase in foot traffic as well as car volume on the roads since the shelter in place order was issued by our governor. It would appear that some Massachusetts residents are struggling with short term memory loss and think that it is acceptable and safe to venture out. For this reason, I think it’s important that Governor Baker continue to reinforce the necessity to isolate and quarantine. In fact, as I have always asserted, it may take a marshal law oriented national shut down to completely curb the spread of this virus as far too many folks fail to address this pandemic seriously unless it affects their own lives adversely. And let’s remember, this virus does not age discriminate. Stay safe everyone.

  33. I spoke to A cousin of Macs tonight. Brilliant woman in her own right. She explained something I’d tried to figure out. I had the sense the lack of food in the grocery stores was more than hoarding

    She had talked to some experts in the food field nationwide. Food delivery has changed drastically. And many are scrambling trying to figure how to adapt to the change. Prior food went to grocery stores and restaurants.

    Americans are approaching meals differently. Those who worked and got breakfast and lunch out are now getting at home. Those who are out are now eating in far and away more than ever……nationally. But grocery stores are not prepared for this added demand

    Just food foe thought. No pun intended.

      1. Thank you Scott. I suspect hoarding is part but the above and also having to stock up for weeks rather than a week.

    2. Additional food for thought (but only one food for thought per reader lol) – staggered schedules due to a smaller workforce (some opting to stay home, some sick, some scheduled differently to distance coworkers, etc) makes for less deliveries, less stocking – some places I know of don’t have as many butchers on duty and thus less meat is getting cut to order. There are many variables to this people don’t even fully grasp because it’s all happening so fast.

      1. More words of wisdom. And it all adds up. Not just hoarding. Although, My youngest said she prefers word preparing….The national all at one time

        Great thoughts, Dr

      1. 🙂

        Sleep well and please Mr and Mrs Arod. Be safe and know we are all more thankful than words can express for all you and every single person working tirelessly to keep us safe and without tools you need to keep you safe.

  36. Wow, the 00z NAM soaks eastern Mass later Thursday into Fri morning with rain from retrograding low pressure.

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