75 replies on “C-19 Chat Post – April 6 2020”

  1. I am still wondering about the intersection of C-19 and the weather. As is known, the heat and sunshine have contributed to help defeat other corona viruses. I remain hopeful but scientists seem reluctant to give the definitive word on this. I think the reluctance is that maybe no one can really be sure about a new virus. IT may also be true that cooler weather helps the virus to spread.

    Another note I have read is that since there are less commercial flights, we might be getting less accurate forecasts. The idea is that commercial flights send weather data to satellites and then on to models and now we are just plain getting less data.

    Not sure about either of the above.

    1. I hear that but both FL and especially CA have warmer weather so it gave me pause. I sure hope summer weather helps though. I did not think of the commercial flights and weather.

    2. Regarding c-19 and warm weather – we will see. Transmission in open air environments is diminished, that much I’ve seen in some reports. And UV light definitely helps kill it. Vitamin D helps with the immune system response. So I can only hope it diminishes it. The downside? Complacency. We will almost certainly experience another surge when flu season starts back up.

  2. As for my daily morning commute on the bus, passengers have been quite few and far between but this particular bus I was on was packed to capacity with standing room only like it was pre-virus. Suffice to say, as soon as I arrived at work, I sent an email complaint to the MBTA regarding SOCIAL DISTANCING. I hope this was an anomaly in that a previous trip was missed due to a driver no-show, etc. I strongly suggested that more buses be available during morning commutes. There are still a lot of us out there that are “essential” and are not healthcare workers.

  3. Thank you for the link JJ. Also, Dr. I fell asleep before I could listen to your link last night so I will tonight.

    On the topic of how so many are thinking of ways to help the younger crowd during all of this, Sutton PD has asked folks whose children have birthdays to let them know and they will drive by.

  4. I don’t know about anyone else, but I have concern for the British PM’s health and outcome. For him to be sent to the hospital, it can’t be good.

      1. When any Heads of State gets sick, that is very disconcerting. One would think that he/she is closely monitored at all times over the course of a day. It’s not like they need to venture into public areas like the rest of us. I would be very curious as to how he caught it.

  5. NY Governor saying the rate of deaths the past two days has been effectively flat for two days.

    1. That’s good, though so far the deaths report from the state today far exceeds yesterday’s total, and there’s another batch to report at the end of the day. I do believe NY is peaking, or even past peak. Still, a lot of death and a lot more new cases to contend with. Even with diminishing numbers of new cases NY would still be dealing with tens of thousands of new cases over the next few weeks. Look at Italy. The country’s been in peak and past-peak mode for 2-3 weeks, and is still suffering from 650 deaths today as well as 3,600 new cases. Improvement, yes. But, there’s a long way to go.

      Very curious about the NJ numbers today.

      European numbers show choppy improvement (still concerned about France – numbers of new cases jumped by 3,000 today and deaths by 350; could therefore be `Sunday’ effect). Some of the smaller countries like Sweden and Belgium are also problematic. Sweden is one of the few countries that did not implement a lockdown. It may be paying the price for that now.

      I think the economies will be back to 80% of normal by this fall, but not before then. Even if things go well and we have diminishing new cases and deaths we’ll need to in the single digits in every state with contact tracing in place before life can return to normalcy.

      For anyone who’s interested I wrote a piece about wearing medical scrubs in public. I’ve never been a fan of this practice. It’s also something uniquely American, as it’s just “not done” overseas. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/04/05/wearing-medical-scrubs-in-public-in-the-age-of-coronavirus/#17dadd283fa8

  6. Soooo JJ and all golf and Masters fans. This would be when we are watching. I still have some trouble watching without Mac but see clips.

    Masters officials have rescheduled until November 9-15. If I can see through the tears, I’ll add November 11 is The Date Mac got bus angel wings. So, I will be watching with him this year.

  7. Vicki the only major not being played this year due to COVID19 is the Open Championship. The PGA Championship will take place in August, The U.S. Open in September and the Masters as you said will be played in November. The final of the three playoff events The Tour Championship final round will be on Labor Day and The Ryder Cup dates have not changed. Speaking of golf there was talk of a Tiger Woods Phil Mickelson rematch with money for COVID19. It needs PGA Tour approval. There is even talk of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning playing with Tiger and Phil. The hope is for this to take place in May.

  8. Some good news from NJ.
    Governor Phil Murphy said the curve is “beginning to flatten” thanks to the current social distancing, as the state is seeing a decline in the growth rate of new cases from 24% day-over-day on March 30 to roughly 12% Monday.
    He says the best case scenario is 86,000 cases in the state with a peak of new cases in about a week-and-a-half to peak on April 19. If current practices continue, the governor says NJ can get through the peak with the hospital beds that they are preparing.

  9. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved into an intensive care unit because of worsening #coronavirus symptoms.

  10. Dr. S: Agree completely with the complacency concern. It’s going to be great when this thing starts to wane, but just letting all guard down at once is going to be a mistake where it happens. We’ll have to peek very very slowly out of the storm cellar to see if the storm is really passed enough. Eventually we’ll get there, but still must be ready for a secondary surge around autumn.

    Vicki: I thought of you today when a friend had posted about this normally being Masters week. I am glad they were able to reschedule it.

  11. I don’t see how anyone could not be extremely encouraged by the numbers coming out of the US for yesterday and today, not to mention continued improvement in most of Europe. The curve is flattening, and the measures we have taken are the reason.

    I do think we need to start thinking now (proactively!) about a re-opening plan. It’s not going to be everything all at once, and of course right now it’s still too early for anything. But April 30 will be here before you know it. Most indications seem to be that it won’t be necessary to maintain all of the present restrictions much beyond then, if beyond then at all. Some things (i.e. schools, indoor sporting events) likely will need to be delayed further than others (i.e. restaurants, non-essential retail). We should have an idea in advance of the best way to get things rolling again.

    1. I’m worried a lot about how we react to flattening the curve. I hope the approach is whatever the scientists say. I’ve heard too much, “we have to get back soon”, etc. There’s the right balance for that, of course, I just don’t know if it’s going to be struck. And, I just worry about the 2nd bounce in late spring if we jump start too fast and if that happens, that will be an absolute unnecessary event.

    2. I would want unbiased scientists to give the all clear. Doing anything too early would result in new flare ups and the possibility of making things worse next season. I think we all want to get back to normal, There are 2 enemies: 1) Covid-19, and 2) ourselves. Normal would be nice.

      1. Definitely agree with you both, hopefully it’s scientists making the call. My concern is just as waiting too long to take action hurt our response, a poorly planned return to normal could similarly hurt our recovery. The top priority definitely has to be preventing a second wave.

        1. Every comment makes sense. My fear is darn near as much longshots #2 as his #1. I would bet that those now not taking this seriously would head back to normal when getting s whiff that we might do that. Down the road means nothing as we have seen in long term weather forecasts. And I believe there are folks on the fringe of wanting to get to what they consider normal and might be swept in the wave. A pandemic has three waves …….we just don’t know what wave is coming.

          Further, the president is not allowing his experts to talk; and as a result I am worried who will give the all clear. The focus cannot be based on anything other than the health and safety of the American people. It cannot be based on economy. That will return. Lives will not.

          1. You exhibit far more reason than our president, that’s for sure. Money will drive his decision.

  12. As far as professional sports goes I don’t see fans in the stands by August September like President Trump wants to see. I will be very happy to see a live sporting event as it will provide an escape. Even when the U.S. is on the decline I would not relax the social distancing.

      1. Increased by 1,337, I think it was something like 1,420 on Friday.

        Maybe, just maybe the containment measures are having a positive effect on slowing this down, But I’d like to see the downward trend continue all week. Let us hope it does just that.

        I’d still like to see far more wide-spread testing as well.

        1. I think canceling the St. Patty’s day parade and effectively shutting down Boston may prevent a catastrophic health crisis.

  13. Monday backlash, again. France new cases jump 3,000, and deaths to 830 (jump of around 300). Spain and Italy are improving. But, gosh, when 650 die each day in each country and you’re still seeing thousands of new cases it’s still a very difficult situation which I don’t see resolving any time soon. I see choppy improvement in other places in Europe. But, nothing that sticks out and says – “this is going well.”

    The U.S. is in a worse predicament case-wise than Europe. Within 10 days the U.S. will have a total number of cases that exceeds Europe and the U.K. And with deaths of well over 1,000 a day the U.S. will soon overtake Italy for the top spot. Unfortunately, with so many cases we’re going to see tens of thousands of more deaths in all likelihood. The good news is the case fatality rate continues to be our saving grace.

    Consider this ominous statistic from Britain where >50% of those who enter the ICU or critical care with Covid-19 die: file:///C:/Users/joshu/Downloads/ICNARC%20COVID-19%20report%202020-04-04.pdf

    The published numbers in the U.S. are between 36% and 48%. Not great, but better.

    I’m slightly optimistic about the NYC area as well as NJ. But I’m concerned about hotspots elsewhere in the country, places that only currently have <1,000 cases but have seen large increases in recent days. Houston is one area, parts of Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Georgia.

  14. Even if an area is going down in cases and deaths you still need to keep your foot on the gas pedal and maintain the social distancing. I think baby steps is the best way to get back to normalcy otherwise I fear another spike will happen.

    1. I’m not buying the numbers . Between now & the next 3 weeks is going to be something like we haven’t seen . I still think the Governor needs to do more he absolutely knows how bad it is very likely to get as we’re not escaping it

        1. Well sure Vicki I can give you more explanation. Shut the city down more lock it down because what’s coming ahead just sucks I do not even want to think about it .

          1. Fair enough ….that is Walsh though. He has asked all to wear masks and has a 9-6 curfew. It won’t stop until the president shuts down the country. Far too many governors are putting politics before the folks they took an oath to protect.

            1. The president already said multiple times he is leaving shutting down up to each Governor. But the president should stop being a wimp

  15. Baker cautioned more times that I could count to NOT using one SMALL point of information as a barometer. He was referencing numbers. I understand the need to look for positives. But basing anything on a minuscule part of the entire picture never works. We have absolutely nothing to base COVIDs process with on

    Of all groups we know that from weather.

    1. So true.

      And JJ, yes, baby steps. I’m hopeful we’ll have some normalcy this fall.

      My thoughts are with Prime Minister Boris Johnson this evening as he faces an uphill battle in intensive care.

  16. This graph is definitely promising. Most countries flattening the curve and beginning to see the start of it in the US and UK….

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    · 2h
    NEW: Mon 6 April update of coronavirus trajectories

    Daily new deaths:
    • US has averaged 1,000 deaths per day over the last week
    • Daily deaths in Italy & Spain peaked around 23-24 days after lockdown
    • Suggests UK could peak in 7-10 days

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1247243903855661061?s=20

    1. Yes and I was just looking at US deaths.

      4/4 1330
      4/5 1165
      4/6 599 (so far today as of about 7PM)

      Now that is an improvement to say the least. Let’s see if it holds for tomorrow.

      1. They do look promising. Prayers continue. Baker suggested not following each day but watching a week which makes sense. We know not to look at the market daily.

      2. JPDave. The 4/6 death toll of 599 that you refer to is for NY only. There have been over 1,200 deaths thus far today in the US.

        1. Horrible ARod. Still folks out there my friend who have no idea about this peak & what’s to come I just do not get it . The Warmer days are bringing out the groups

    1. It sure did. I was happy to see my portfolio yesterday fairly close to start of this. It isn’t at start of year but it is positive and what more can I ask for. I didn’t check today nor will I. I’m following the dont jump on every day with this also

  17. Re Boris Johnson: I hope he beats it. He was one of the world leaders being foolish about it at the start bragging about shaking hands with covid-19 patients when the science was fully out there about contact with people. https://youtu.be/n3NAx3tsy-k I shudder to think of the amount of people whose lives he risked by being so cavalier at that point. Not even just his own.

  18. Good news on the stock market, as many of us have our retirement there. I think the market is anticipating a slow recovery soon. There’s certainly hope for that.

    But, on today’s U.S. new deaths they’re over 1,200 and counting, not 599. I think I saw someone say 599. New cases will likely approach 29,000 or 30,000 for the day. We’re not close to beating this thing, unfortunately, especially given that testing in many states is still difficult to obtain, or protocols prevent people from testing. This understandable given the need to triage.

  19. Testing is still very restrictive. The current CDC AND WHO guidelines permit testing for patients in the following categories:

    1) Healthcare workers with symptoms
    2) First responders with symptoms
    3) Critical Infrastructure workers with symptoms
    4) Over 65 with symptoms
    5) Have underlying health conditions with symptoms

    Everyone else with symptoms is excluded. Also, all asymptomatic patients who report a close contact with a confirmed case of COVID and/or recent travel to areas with high rates of transmission are also excluded.

    1. Well that is exactly why we just can’t pay attention to one minute data point. If Washington would stop dicking around with our supplies….but then it made it clear it will not. So hard not to admire the way Baker is working around the roadblock and doing it with grace

      1. Agree. It would be reckless to draw long term conclusions based on a few data points. It should also be noted that testing supplies are scarce in many healthcare facilities, so some folks who meet the criteria set forth by the CDC aren’t even afforded a test. Finally, let’s not forget the length of time it takes to receive test results. The numbers you are seeing today on TV represent the number of infected people 10-14 days ago. The true number of confirmed cases today won’t be realized until mid April at the earliest. If I was a fly on the wall, I bet I’d learn that there were millions of infected people in the US. The only good news is that the true death rate is much lower than advertised.

        1. Thank you arod …all of that makes absolute sense to me

          We will get through this…if everyone does what they should and stays home. It is truly that simple

          One of the memes that has resonated is the one that simply says

          Next time you say you are bored at home, remember there is a healthcare worker with a pit in his stomach getting ready to go to work.

          How hard is it to show respect for those who are literally putting our health, mail, safety, food supply, etc ahead of their own safety.

          1. My friend got it & it took like 5 days to get results . By the time he found out he was positive he was being discharged home

  20. Arod, thanks for your input.

    I’m a bit perplexed at today’s media reports, quite frankly. Europe is `improving’ but slowly and choppily (is that a word?). France had its worse daily death toll (833) by far today, along with a big jump in new cases. Italy and Spain, while improved, still have many thousands of new cases every day as well as ~700 new deaths in each country every 24 hours. The U.S. situation still looks pretty bleak, folks, with the exception of the west coast (which looks quite good at this point, thank goodness). I’m really sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I want to be positive. But, I think we have to be realistic in our expectations.

  21. Dr S. The fox was fun but the interpretative sp? Dance darn near has me rolling off the couch laughing

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