48 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – April 26 2020”

  1. USA will likely surpass 1,000,000 cases tomorrow and the world will
    surpass 3,000,000 cases today.

    1. I have commented on the same a few times, but what I think what is often overlooked is that the USA has had 33% of the world’s cases, but only represents 4% of the world’s population. How did this happen?

  2. Longshot’s question is a good one. I’ve said on this blog before I believe the U.S. will ultimately wind up with more than 50% of the developed world’s confirmed cases, and 40% of the developed world’s deaths.

    We responded late and in a fragmented way. Whether it’s testing, isolation, or contact tracing. Or travel restrictions. Consider that after the so-called ban on Chinese travel 400,000 traveled to and from China! Also, we’ve allowed an estimated 20 to 30 times more passengers to fly than Europe. The federal system prevented us from doing a New Zealand style lockdown, or even Portugal. I’ve been watching Portuguese news. The country’s lockdown is draconian. More so than Italy or Spain. You cannot leave your home or do anything outside without government permission (paperwork signed off by government officials). Roadblocks are everywhere, on highways and secondary roads stopping cars, sidewalks stopping pedestrians, bike paths stopping bicyclists. It’s worked in Portugal. The country is doing MUCH better than Spain and is about to lift restrictions as cases dwindle. New Zealand’s lockdown has been similarly harsh. It too is lifting restrictions and will come out of this in much better shape than we.

    There’s a paradox: The more you restrict freedoms for a brief period of time of 4-6 weeks the earlier your can successfully restore a high degree of freedom, open up the economy and really get back on your feet.

    But, we Americans really wouldn’t tolerate that extent of government intrusion. The U.S. is not ideally suited to tackle a pandemic. I say that with all due respect to our constitution and federal system. We value freedom and individuality more than others do. We don’t ever do anything systematically in a countrywide fashion. We leave most power in the hands of local authorities, each with their own preferences and protocols. We have a population that generally doesn’t (fully) trust government.

    So, here we are. As I mentioned last week I believe we’ve entered the de factor herd immunity phase. Not full-blown herd immunity. Sort of herd immunity light. The government won’t tell us that this is the approach. But, the regions that are reopening are clearly in herd immunity mode. There will be momentum to reopen the entire country. Sooner than it should. And with tremendous levels of deaths. I think 100k is a gross underestimate at this point. It may approach 350k-400k by February next year – deaths by thousands of cuts (average of ~1k daily between now and February, with a dip this summer and an increase in the fall).

    1. I agree. The hand writing is on the wall. Herd immunity, for what it is worth, is the PLAN. No doubt about it. The question is: Is there immunity and if so, how long does it last? There are serious questions about that.

      I fear this is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better.

    1. So, from what I can gather (my Portuguese is limited) you apply for what one could call a day pass or visa to leave the house. You do this online and you specify the reason for you needing to leave the house, use your car, etc … I believe you’re allowed 3 of these a week. The kind of pass you get depends on the purpose of your leaving the house (eg, groceries, for example). The pass is sent to you by email and you can print it or have it on your phone. I do wonder what people do if they don’t have internet. I guess you can apply by mail, too. But then it takes a few days.

      If you’re an essential worker you’re obviously exempt from this.

      It’s very strict. You’re not allowed outside to take a walk unless there’s a purpose for that walk. Jogging is not a legitimate purpose, for example.

      In Portugal they’re now relaxing the latter rule and allowing children outside with their parents or guardians to “get some fresh air.”

      I must say I find these rules too draconian. They’re like the ones established in China.

      However, in Portugal they’ve generally worked.

      1. Thanks Joshua.

        I wonder if one can put an order online for groceries and have it delivered to home like JPD does here. Do the Portuguese have such a service?

  3. A friend from Belmont posted this re 1918 pandemic. He said I may share.

    I decided to look at the deaths in the City of Newton during the 1918-1919 pandemic. The first death was on September 18, 1918. The last was on March 28, 1919. Only 7 deaths occurred from February to March. The chart notes the ages of those that were at risk. 90 of the 229 people died at the hospital. I expect that people died at home as it was common for Physicians to treat at a residence. Or perhaps the cost hospital care exceeded people’s means.The others died at home. One person was from Pittsburgh and seven were from an abutting town.

    As an aside, an early childhood memory was my Mom putting out the Irish linen hand towels for the Doctor to dry his hands on. That was the only time I saw the Irish linen hand towels.

    The primary and secondary causes of death were either influenza or broncho pneumonia. One physician noted the primary as “Natural Causes – probably Influenza”.The secondary was bronco pneumonia. During my other projects the cause of death being “probably” was not unusual. While perusing the Newton death records I saw a death record for someone who died of a gunshot wound. The death record noted that the Judge had done an inquest and would give his decision if it was suicide or homicide if needed. There was no further cause of death noted.

    There were several instances where more than one family member died.

    As a comparison, the population of Newton was about 50% of present day.

    My source of the data was from the Records of Deaths for the City of Newton…. https://www.familysearch.org/en/

    https://imgur.com/a/8MlpKRZ

    1. Thanks Vicki. Interesting how the virus hit the “20 and 30-somethings” the hardest. Also note how very few lived into their 70s back in those days.

  4. Teaching in the “New Normal”…

    We are waiting for Phase IV from the DESE now that we’re out for the rest of the school year.

    Still cannot teach anything new. With new directives, hopefully can introduce new topics starting next week.

    The third marking period (which should have ended April 7) will close this Friday, May 1. The letter grades will be based on work from January 28-March 12. The work from March 13-June 18 will be complete/incomplete and the final grades will be pass/fail.

    Good news for our senior son, David, and our family: Senior week has been rescheduled for the last week of July (including the prom) with the graduation ceremony rescheduled for Saturday morning, August 1.

    It might be a long shot, but let’s hope he can have his senior week!

    How about you, Tom, and your daughter, JPD? How’s Distance Teaching going?

    1. I will be surprised if there’s a senior week. As it is a lot of seniors going to college may have to do part or all of their first semester online! I can’t begin to imagine… Though at the very least there are colleges that are entirely online based so there is a path for it.

      1. You’re right, Dr. S. I’ll bet we’ll start hearing about colleges that have closed campuses until at least January very soon..

        I know at my college alma mater, they are planning on having two graduation ceremonies next May, one for 2021 and one for the Class of 2020 with all of the festivities that they missed this spring

        At least for my son’s high school Class of 2020, they are giving it a second try and not completely abandoning Senior Week.

    2. Interesting. I thought my girls said their schools are starting new subjects this week. I suspect that I heard incorrectly . My oldest is on school committee in her town and suddenly DESE has become a very familiar word.

      1. I have a Zoom meeting with my department tomorrow evening.

        From what I understand, the reason I/we are not able to teach new material is the students who are on IEPs are not able to have aides with them nor have their accommodations successfully met.

        One of the ideas being tossed around at my school is that, if we’re able to go back to school in August, it that we will have a remedial session for about six weeks. For example, the students who have me right now in Spanish I would continue to have me from September 1 to about mid-October. They would get the “important stuff” they missed this spring so they can get through the material in Spanish II.
        Therefore, instead of semester being 90 days each, they would be shortened to about 75 days each. I am guessing the teachers who had seniors this spring would have the incoming freshmen and remediate late eighth grade.

        1. Interesting. Not sure how they will work around August vacations. As of now, I’m not seeing our vacation happening. But then the thought of several hundred kids all in a cafeteria gives me chills. I also thought both of my grands with IEPs we’re meeting with the teachers. Ii is clear that I need to pay more attention.

          1. We are scheduled to start the new school year at the end of August because Labor Day is so late this year. I am assuming (if we go back in the fall at all) that next year’s calendar hasn’t changed at all.

            Everytime the DESE and the governor change the phases of teaching and learning (this will be our fourth phase since this all started), our local teacher’s union and the school committee enter into a new Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with the updated staff expectations.

  5. Philip, I do think Portugal has online services. Probably don’t use them as much as we do, but still.

    From what I gather public transportation is still running in Portugal.

    By the way, thus far, the numbers today look awesome worldwide. If only every day were Sunday. The trend in Europe is positive, no matter what. Consistent declines in cases and deaths. Today’s sharp decreases are overdone. Nevertheless, Europe is well on its way to reopening in stages.

    1. The bottom line is we’re progressing close to what would be expected. I think there were a lot of unreasonable expectations, many of them just because of the unknowns and lack of having dealt with this in any recent time to this magnitude. I hope Europe is responsible in its reopening strategy. Slowly, constant assessment, slow-down or pull back if needed. Eventually they will get there. Eventually we all will get there.

    2. Thanks Joshua. It’s probably been mentioned here a gazillion times, but why the inaccurate #’s on weekends?

  6. I am sharing this as an informative piece, and one representation of how we are currently viewed from outside here. It was written by one, but after reading it I am very sure it represents the feelings of many. I present it not as a political commentary on my part, but just an look at how others are looking at us. You may agree. You may disagree. I’m going to keep my thoughts on it to myself.

    Also just a reminder to all that I have opened this section up so we can all share information, discuss, and yes, opine. Just remember to keep our criticisms reasonable and readable by all. There are a lot of people watching, not commenting. Apply the same reasoning, despite the sensitivity of the subject matter, to how we would talk about weather media. For example, there are plenty of times I saw a forecast on TV and I wanted to say that “so-and-so is being an idiot” and in some cases I have done that, which is not really the way I want to convey things here. I’ve learned to monitor my own responses to things, and to express disagreement with a style or an opinion in as civil a fashion as possible. And yes I try to do the same with our politicians as well. I know we all have opinions on them as people and politicians. Just remember for the sake of discussion that we can express our disagreement with someone’s actions in as civil a way as possible. And as always I ask that discussions containing differing opinions among blog members are also met with the same type of civility. I would like to keep this section of the blog going for as long as we feel it is necessary. It will be a while yet, for sure…

    Here is the article. Again, this is not an editorial on my part, just a sharing of this article, which is the opinion of its writer.

    _______________________________________

    From the Irish Times by Fintan O’Toole

    US president Donald Trump has claimed he was being sarcastic and testing the media when he raised the idea that injecting disinfectant or irradiating the body with ultraviolet light might kill coronavirus.
    Over more than two centuries, the United States has stirred a very wide range of feelings in the rest of the world: love and hatred, fear and hope, envy and contempt, awe and anger. But there is one emotion that has never been directed towards the US until now: pity.
    However bad things are for most other rich democracies, it is hard not to feel sorry for Americans. Most of them did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016. Yet they are locked down with a malignant narcissist who, instead of protecting his people from Covid-19, has amplified its lethality. The country Trump promised to make great again has never in its history seemed so pitiful.
    Will American prestige ever recover from this shameful episode? The US went into the coronavirus crisis with immense advantages: precious weeks of warning about what was coming, the world’s best concentration of medical and scientific expertise, effectively limitless financial resources, a military complex with stunning logistical capacity and most of the world’s leading technology corporations. Yet it managed to make itself the global epicentre of the pandemic.
    As the American writer George Packer puts it in the current edition of the Atlantic, “The United States reacted … like Pakistan or Belarus – like a country with shoddy infrastructure and a dysfunctional government whose leaders were too corrupt or stupid to head off mass suffering.”
    It is one thing to be powerless in the face of a natural disaster, quite another to watch vast power being squandered in real time – wilfully, malevolently, vindictively. It is one thing for governments to fail (as, in one degree or another, most governments did), quite another to watch a ruler and his supporters actively spread a deadly virus. Trump, his party and Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News became vectors of the pestilence.
    The grotesque spectacle of the president openly inciting people (some of them armed) to take to the streets to oppose the restrictions that save lives is the manifestation of a political death wish. What are supposed to be daily briefings on the crisis, demonstrative of national unity in the face of a shared challenge, have been used by Trump merely to sow confusion and division. They provide a recurring horror show in which all the neuroses that haunt the American psyche dance naked on live TV. If the plague is a test, its ruling political nexus ensured that the US would fail it at a terrible cost in human lives. In the process, the idea of the US as the world’s leading nation – an idea that has shaped the past century – has all but evaporated. Who, other than the Trump impersonator Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, is now looking to the US as the exemplar of anything other than what not to do? How many people in Düsseldorf or Dublin are wishing they lived in Detroit or Dallas?
    It is hard to remember now but, even in 2017, when Trump took office, the conventional wisdom in the US was that the Republican Party and the broader framework of US political institutions would prevent him from doing too much damage. This was always a delusion, but the pandemic has exposed it in the most savage ways.

    Abject surrender
    What used to be called mainstream conservatism has not absorbed Trump – he has absorbed it. Almost the entire right-wing half of American politics has surrendered abjectly to him. It has sacrificed on the altar of wanton stupidity the most basic ideas of responsibility, care and even safety.
    Thus, even at the very end of March, 15 Republican governors had failed to order people to stay at home or to close non-essential businesses. In Alabama, for example, it was not until April 3rd that governor Kay Ivey finally issued a stay-at-home order.
    In Florida, the state with the highest concentration of elderly people with underlying conditions, governor Ron DeSantis, a Trump mini-me, kept the beach resorts open to students travelling from all over the US for spring break parties. Even on April 1st, when he issued restrictions, DeSantis exempted religious services and “recreational activities”.
    There is, as the demonstrations in US cities show, plenty of political mileage in denying the reality of the pandemic
    Georgia governor Brian Kemp, when he finally issued a stay-at-home order on April 1st, explained: “We didn’t know that [the virus can be spread by people without symptoms] until the last 24 hours.”
    This is not mere ignorance – it is deliberate and homicidal stupidity. There is, as the demonstrations this week in US cities have shown, plenty of political mileage in denying the reality of the pandemic. It is fuelled by Fox News and far-right internet sites, and it reaps for these politicians millions of dollars in donations, mostly (in an ugly irony) from older people who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus.
    It draws on a concoction of conspiracy theories, hatred of science, paranoia about the “deep state” and religious providentialism (God will protect the good folks) that is now very deeply infused in the mindset of the American right.
    Trump embodies and enacts this mindset, but he did not invent it. The US response to the coronavirus crisis has been paralysed by a contradiction that the Republicans have inserted into the heart of US democracy. On the one hand, they want to control all the levers of governmental power. On the other they have created a popular base by playing on the notion that government is innately evil and must not be trusted.
    The contradiction was made manifest in two of Trump’s statements on the pandemic: on the one hand that he has “total authority”, and on the other that “I don’t take responsibility at all”. Caught between authoritarian and anarchic impulses, he is incapable of coherence.

    Fertile ground
    But this is not just Donald Trump. The crisis has shown definitively that Trump’s presidency is not an aberration. It has grown on soil long prepared to receive it. The monstrous blossoming of misrule has structure and purpose and strategy behind it.
    There are very powerful interests who demand “freedom” in order to do as they like with the environment, society and the economy. They have infused a very large part of American culture with the belief that “freedom” is literally more important than life. My freedom to own assault weapons trumps your right not to get shot at school. Now, my freedom to go to the barber (“I Need a Haircut” read one banner this week in St Paul, Minnesota) trumps your need to avoid infection.
    Usually when this kind of outlandish idiocy is displaying itself, there is the comforting thought that, if things were really serious, it would all stop. People would sober up. Instead, a large part of the US has hit the bottle even harder.
    And the president, his party and their media allies keep supplying the drinks. There has been no moment of truth, no shock of realisation that the antics have to end. No one of any substance on the US right has stepped in to say: get a grip, people are dying here.
    If he is re-elected, toxicity will have become the lifeblood of American politics
    That is the mark of how deep the trouble is for the US – it is not just that Trump has treated the crisis merely as a way to feed tribal hatreds but that this behaviour has become normalised. When the freak show is live on TV every evening, and the star is boasting about his ratings, it is not really a freak show any more. For a very large and solid bloc of Americans, it is reality.
    And this will get worse before it gets better. Trump has at least eight more months in power. In his inaugural address in 2017, he evoked “American carnage” and promised to make it stop. But now that the real carnage has arrived, he is revelling in it. He is in his element.
    As things get worse, he will pump more hatred and falsehood, more death-wish defiance of reason and decency, into the groundwater. If a new administration succeeds him in 2021, it will have to clean up the toxic dump he leaves behind. If he is re-elected, toxicity will have become the lifeblood of American politics.
    Either way, it will be a long time before the rest of the world can imagine America being great again.

    ___________________________

        1. Very sobering to say the least. We as a nation have been reduced to a total embarrassment in just two short months.

  7. Our Son just picked us up a few items from a local store:

    We got a doz eggs and 1/2 gallon of milk.
    plus a package of chicken breasts and 2 steaks plus a package of bacon.

    I appreciate having these items so much.

    Ran out of wipes. Just made a batch from bleach. Placed in a spray bottle for use.
    Presto Magico, All set. And I have a box of wipes in quarantine ready in a couple of days.

    1. Kind of feels like gearing up for war in some respects. In a way we are – a war against germs!

  8. Regarding my very first post above, I bet our governor will have a similar date. I certainly can’t picture him ending it on the current one.

    1. I think all along he’s been reminding us he’d assess it and do it in a stair step fashion. It’s the only way you can do it responsibly when you have so many unknowns. The correlations to weather forecasting in this situation are so plentiful that it’s helping me understand (and in some cases predict) the situation.

      1. I so agree and have used weather as an example here and elsewhere. It is eerily similar. Am so happy he is our governor.

    1. The weekend numbers always look a little whacky to me. I just want these numbers to go down … not that I’m different than anyone else.

        1. Just incomplete data. Not as reliable. Think of Saturday & Sunday like 06z and 18z runs of the old models. 😉

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