77 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – April 28 2020”

  1. The article that was posted from mass general is now being talked about on the news so it’s out there . Baker will start by adding another 4 weeks to the extension . As far as sunny days & warm temps more towns coming out with fines down here it’s Cohasset. Walsh is clearly getting ticked off & he will fine if folks don’t listen . I would not dismiss this being talked about when he extends his order this week ( does anybody think he won’t I don’t think he has a choice ) Tom you can’t even go to the beach up Hampton beach it’s being watched and in Salisbury the cottages can’t have there water turned on

    1. Thanks, John.

      Walsh is worried. He sees the very high positivity rates in certain neighborhoods of Boston and knows what that means. This is a fragile plateau.

      I’m very surprised by some of the decisions being made in a number of states with respect to reopening. I think that one of the last things to reopen should be a movie theater or bowling alley. Any enclosed space like that with no natural air circulating other than AC is problematic.

    2. I frankly think every individual who does not comply should be fined at several hundred for first offense and double that for every offense after. Monies should go to all of those on the front lines making pitiful salaries. The ones in too many cases that have been categorized as being “hamburg flippers” so do not really deserve to earn a living wage are now the ones we depend on.

      I’m not in a good place this morning. The few town FB pages I am part of have turned ugly…..just because folks are asked to wear a mask. When I was growing up, I was taught we did things for ourselves yes but always at the same time for the greater good.

      I know I am repeating but I really think it needs to be repeated. As we watched the Japanese share water with each other selflessly after the tsunami, Mac commented that in this country that would be a struggle. He cited the energy crisis and the mess at gas station lines. My heavens….just a simple mask has become abhorrent to some.

      And I do understand many are struggling financially. Two of my three children and family are among that group. One SIL has a small business. The other is starting a small business. My heart aches for the children who are graduating from high school and from different grades to another school. It breaks for the children whose only safe place is school. Our best leaders recognize this and are trying to find solutions.

      But deliberately and selfishly ignoring rules will only extend this suffering. And worse, it will endanger all of those who can’t afford the luxury of sitting on their couches and have to be out and about for work or research or to hold the hands of and comfort those who are ill.

      Rant over…..I hope.

      1. Not a rant, Vicki, you expressed it well.

        You also mentioned the Japanese tsunami. I marveled at how the Japanese came together after that calamity. Remarkable selflessness.

        Also, I did see what you posted last night, what John was referring to.

      2. Excellent.
        No matter what kind of ugliness is out there, trust me there
        is more good and kindness. I would just like to see more of it.

        1. Thank you both. JPD I have to remember that these folks are not majority and FB surely doesn’t represent majority

  2. Massachusetts remains 3rd in the country in # cases and 4th in # deaths. Not exactly a distinguished position to be in. The 3 top states are:

    NY
    NJ
    MA

    Interesting. My guess it is due to the number of international flights
    coming into Kennedy and Logan with Perhaps some to Philly and Newark?
    A shit load of passengers deplaned from seriously affected countries in Europe, not
    to mention China earlier on.

    If flights from China and Europe were banned at the outset, we wouldn’t be in
    this position.

    1. I agree and also that conference at the start of this added but I think more for reasons you gave. Although, CA had 150,000 arrive at its airports in January alone from Asia.

    1. Agree with the 18th, BUT I suspect that when it opens it will be in a very, very limited way. Also Charlie did not rule out or even address another extension. I imagine he’ll get questions from reporters on this very subject.

      1. Agree and agree. I don’t believe may 18 is the final date either. He is saying it will be phased. I continue to be impressed with his process. And it is so welcome to listen to a man/leaded who gives confidence.

    1. The CVS thing may not be price gouging since they are reportedly paying over $1 per mask. But it’s probably not smart business and leaves themselves open to ridicule. That’s too bad as according to MA and RI they have been doing a great job helping, etc during all of this.

      1. Technically, price gouging is legal in Massachusetts. The only exception is petroleum products and that was due to the energy/oil crisis of the 1970’s.

  3. Kind of surprised he only went until the 18th leaving folks hanging with the holiday weekend . I think he should have done 4 weeks

      1. Surprised by this. Hawaii was a state I thought could open up sooner so long as travel restrictions continued to apply to and from the islands.

    1. I am fine with the two weeks for several reasons. But hard to second guess when we have only a small clue of the information at his disposal. The order can be extended so that basically we are shut until he says we are not…..just my opinion.

    2. 2 at a time. This is like weather forecasting. You don’t go out too far, neither extending nor ending. I completely agree with his 2 week extension with the possibility, and perhaps probability that it will be extended. But wait for the data to confirm it. Don’t play expert when you’re not an expert, and that’s exactly what Baker is doing. He’s doing his job while the health experts are being left to do theirs. Bravo Baker!

        1. He had expressed previously that each of these dates were not necessarily final and that he’d update based on the situation as it goes along. It may be too soon to open up, but it’s also too soon to really know when. Two-week increments is the smartest way to do this. No “let’s open now” or even no “we can’t open until July”. We don’t know that yet.

          1. I’m just shocked I thought he would have cornered Memorial Day weekend . I guess he still can

            1. I get it and you are right that he still can. He has done everything right so far. I am just happy to have confidence in a leader when it has not existed for almost four years

            2. I’m not shocked at all. There is no reason to jump ahead 4 weeks when 2 weeks is working just fine. Stair-stepping works best when the stairs are generally the same size. 🙂

  4. Very good news from NY. Steady decline in cases and deaths. Steadier than Italy.

    Same can’t be said for New Jersey. Still way too inconsistent, as are many states.

    Overall, today’s numbers so far not looking as good as the past 2 days. Keep an eye on Tennessee, Georgia, Indiana, and Wisconsin.

    Trump’s 70k deaths prediction yesterday was not a good move politically. I thought the task force did a reasonable job a month ago when they said 100k-240k would be the likely scenario. Then, for some reason, they got carried away with changing model predictions, latching on to the 60k and now 70k. It’s better to stick with the original number, in my view, and not raise expectations.

  5. MA numbers aren’t in yet as well as a number of other states.

    Somehow the weekend counts don’t seem to straighten out until Tuesday.

    1. Basically what I figured. Shows we are at the very least on the plateau, when you take into account the increased number of tests. And to me this solidifies my believe that Gov. Baker did the right thing today by extending another 2 weeks. People can disagree, but this guy is doing it right.

      1. I have no problem with the 2 weeks. It is likely to be longer,
        but no harm in hoping for better numbers such that things
        can gradually open up, but I suspect there will be yet
        another extension. Let us hope there doesn’t need to be.

      2. Agree.

        Don’t like the Massachusetts numbers. Still high positivity rate. Still a lot of deaths.

        But, as a whole the nation is testing more. It’s a slow process, but we’re getting there. Positivity rate for the nation is around 11.5%. Not great, but much better than a couple of weeks ago. Also, today will likely mark the 3rd straight day with numbers of new cases nationwide under 26k. Still a lot of new daily cases, but we’re slowly trending in the right direction nationwide. Granted, NY is contributing mightily to the downward trend.

        What has to worry policymakers, though, is that NY is no longer an outsized epicenter and yet the nation is still adding many new cases and deaths on a daily basis. NY is contributing 10-15% of new cases and 15% of deaths. Just 10 days ago the numbers were ~30% and ~40% respectively. Yet, we’re still nearly at the same plateau in terms of new cases and deaths. Perhaps a 5-8% downward shift in the 5-day moving average for cases and deaths, but no more than that. This means multiple – dozens – hotspots in the nation are accounting for the vast majority of new cases and deaths. Problematic, as you don’t have only 2 or 3 places to focus on.

  6. Sooo our new veggie garden is in progress. Unfortunately, they apparently had to blast rock for the houses foundation. Hence radon meter in garage. We now know what they did with the rock pieces. It has taken most of the day to sink four posts two feet.

    We would have a fence post digging party but that seems to be off the table. 🙁

  7. Again that mass general article is making for a lot of talk today , just saying . By the computer the scientists said opening before Memorial Day weekend by July 4th the outbreak will be worse . If it gets worse the shutdown would be here for awhile .

    1. I think it’s getting more attention than it needs. Why? Because how do you test a new weather model? You run it for a while, a long period of time, and observe it, because it’s going to have biases and faults. Does this continue to be analogous to weather forecasting? Absolutely. I definitely don’t fault them at all for making this, but using it to make solid decisions is questionable. The method we are using now, short-term reanalyses, is going to serve us better than anything else we can do.

      1. I agree. My gut tells me that the info is relatively accurate. We know from other countries that opening too soon backfires. We know we are not ready. But this is a model and as you wisely said models are just that. Coupled with the advisory team and bakers measured approach to date, it is a good guide.

        I absolutely positively agree with your last sentence.

        1. I do feel it probably is reasonably accurate as well. I suppose we are getting a real life trial now. We will see.

  8. I liked Gov Baker’s 2 week extension today.

    It was warranted and I like the slow and steady approach.

    We’ll look at the data the next 10 t0 12 days, see how the virus behaves and perhaps somewhere around Wed, May 13th, it will be time again to make a decision for the next 2 weeks from May 18th to June 1st.

    1. Agree. I suspect you have given the reason for two weeks. I’m betting it will be extended but slow and steady as they say.

      1. There’s a ways to go in Mass.

        I was discouraged to see the positivity rate at nearly 20% today.

        This seems to be plateaued in the range of 16 to 20%. It was at 30%, and was slowly dropping, but now has leveled off.

        This positivity rate has to drop much more and the cases as well, unless your suddenly testing 50,000 people.

        We’ll see ………..

  9. Keith – did some research. I was able to find out some CVS’s had it priced at 2.99 and most had them priced at 1.99. These are reportedly what they look like https://imgur.com/a/oIuZvIA

    Some stores had a two mask limit – some five – some no limit at all. Crazy world we live in. L

    1. Yikes…those are really cheap looking (that’s what 13 years in Health Care does to you)….so I’d have to say @ $2.99 each I would only buy them as a last resort. I remember a few years ago when IV solutions were almost non existent partly due to Hurricane Maria doing a number of manufacturing facilities in Puerto Rico. Health care operations had a real difficult time unless say you had a Braun pump in which you were on an allocation from Braun.

  10. I was thinking today how we are seeing a sort of visual representation of herd immunity happening. A lot of people are wearing masks and making sure to sanitize everything. LThose are the people who got “vaccinated”. Then you have the people who wear a mask but kind of half heartedly and maybe complacency is starting to set in and they aren’t being as diligent as a month ago with hand washing. They’re the ones with some “vaccinations” and a few are out of date. Then you have the people who don’t wear masks and who think this is all a hoax or that enough is enough already and we should open up and whatever happens happens. Those are the “antivaxxers.” Communities that force mask wearing or you get fined are like the schools that force vaccinations. The more people that wear masks the more protected the non mask wearers are. So a sort of herd immunity.

    As you can tell I didn’t get much sleep last night. lmao

    1. I just lost a very long reply. Probably a good thing for you to not have to read it.

      Sleep is a rare commodity these days and you used your lack of it for a good cause. Great comment.

  11. If people want an idea of the future of what we may see in the terms of a reopening… look no further than rhode island. This page they set up is likely how we will see our reopening go: https://www.reopeningri.com/

    Very interesting and informative.

    1. Darn. Wow. Thorough. How many other ways can I say it. THANK YOU for sharing. I’d ask why our president can’t do this but we know the answer.

  12. Another thing I think we could see other states consider and indeed adopt – starting the school year in late july or early august. This would allow in person schooling for a while before any potential additional curve. Here’s california’s governor newsom https://youtu.be/I13LjghS058

    1. I asked about that but teachers’ are not under contract in summer and everything would have to be rewritten and agreed too.

      1. At least that is what a couple of school committee folks told me. Maybe our teachers can comment

        1. They are under contract I believe . You won’t seen schools in session here in mass in July or August. Anything that went down this year with school I’m pretty sure it was all excused . I know private schools won’t go back & the Boston teaches Union is strong .

      2. One thinks there could be some concessions made… like if any schools agree to start early they can end early. Or have a longer break during any uptick in cases rather than having to do as much telework.

        1. Agree.

          Not impossible but some issues I can think of…

          Many schools have their calendar year out. I do believe it would require a rewrite of contract. But you also have vacations planned. If school can return, vacations may also be able to go as planned. Those kids then lose more time.

          If we have a hot August? But most of all mgh simulation has July 20. Earliest. August is close and kids as a test case doesn’t sit well with me

          A positive is if…and still if….warm weather breaks this, it could be a good time to start. Just too far away to tell

          As an aside Labor Day is late so schools all start later than normal

          1. I figure California likely has a lot of the same hurdles to consider especially hot weather — this is probably with the governor isn’t so sure they can start early. But if one governor is essentially thinking out loud in a way to gauge parents and teachers interest moving forward, other governors are probably going to take note and see the general reaction.

          2. Additional thought: some parents might be particularly keen on this idea as they will be returning to work with a fuller schedule. For parents who have been out of a job or who have been using a lot of time – an earlier start to the school year would likely make it easier for the economy to recover during the warmer months. Just ruminating out loud.

            1. It all makes sense. Lots to think about in uncharted waters. In the end the most important considerations is the safety of our children and coupled with that our teachers.

  13. A “Meatless May” ahead. Expect grocery shelves wiped out of all meat products very soon. Start hoarding and stock up! 🙁

    I also wonder if fresh fruits and vegetables will be next? Will toilet paper shelves be the least of our concerns before long?

    1. Meatless isn’t so bad. I mentioned that gardein beefless scramble is really good with taco seasoning and taco sauce. Also good with sloppy joe mix and might be good for other recipes that involve scrambled hamburger. Better on cholesterol, too. And I’m someone who HATES the taste of vegan foods but this worked well for me. Branch out as best you can if there are meat shortages! Visit local farms if you’re hard up as they might have a supply.

    2. It’s definitely not time to hoard anything.

      The food supply won’t be running out either. Just another overblown take by some media on something we will be able to handle with some work and patience.

  14. Wow, this site has all Trump haters. I have followed your excellent weather experts for many years and have enjoyed it immensely, especially in the winter months when a snow storm was imminent or even just a possibility. My favorite is JP Dave. I have a great laugh when the forecast calls for a big snowstorm but it goes west of us or out to sea. The one sided opinions and comments I see all the time on all the cable stations except Fox News. I don’t agree with many comments made by Trump but he has done a lot of good things. The media is a joke. Can you imagine Biden handling this situation. He can’t even complete a sentence. That’s my rant!

Comments are closed.