DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)
Canadian high pressure will be in control the next few days as it sinks southward across the northeastern US. The transition that takes place in this pattern will be mainly with shifts in wind direction. Today, with the center of the high to the north of the area, it’s a cool northeast wind, which may bring in low clouds from the ocean at times. At the same time the decaying storm system to our southwest will still be trying to send some higher level cloudiness in as well, so it won’t be perfectly sunny all day. The wind will be much lighter Wednesday as the high parks itself overhead. This will be a sunnier day and while inland areas warm up, as this warming takes place closer to the coast a natural sea breeze will kick in, cooling those areas back. Thursday, the high center starts to sink a little more to the south and the gradient wind, while light, will be more from the south, allowing further warming. Still, coastal areas where a wind with a southerly component travels over water will be cooler. By Friday, the center of the high will finally be to the south of New England, and a more westerly wind means that most of the region warms up nicely, but still there are exceptions where even a west wind blows over water before reaching the land, but these are quite limited to places such as outer Cape Cod, west-facing shores of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, and a place like Nahant, for example. These will be your coolest areas on Friday. A peek at the beginning of the weekend shows that a new high will be located in eastern Canada and that the high to the south will have weakened and replaced by a weak low pressure area – the remains of the low currently over the east central US. The high to the north may drive a back-door cold front down the from eastern Canada via Maine and cool the entire area down. What about Arthur? Yup. It’s out there, off the US Southeast Coast, and will be moving away and weakening as it tracks east and eventually southeast, possibly bringing some showery weather to Bermuda the next few days. Buh-bye!
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, with higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-40 interior, 40-45 coastal areas and Boston. Wind NE 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 except cooling back to the 50s coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)
Not a very high confidence forecast on the middle and end of the Memorial Day Weekend Sunday (May 24), which may be cloudy as low pressure to the south, while not strong, tries to press northward while high pressure to the north holds it off. Does rain make it into part of the area? Probably not, but I say that with hesitation because its spring in New England, and model performance, which normally suffers as you go out in time, suffers even more as we continue to lack some data input with fewer planes still in the sky during the pandemic. My current thought-out scenario would allow the high to eventually win out, slide southeastward, and warm the area up somewhat for Memorial Day (May 25). After this, a weakening frontal system from the northwest and a little more south to southwesterly air flow ahead of it would increase the shower chances heading through the middle of next week. I am certain this forecast will need a lot of fine-tuning.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)
As little confidence as I have for the 6-10 day period, I have even less for this one, so I will say that taking a look at the overall pattern leads me to believe both temperatures and precipitation will be near to slightly below average.