Tuesday Forecast

44 Comments

7:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Canadian high pressure will be in control the next few days as it sinks southward across the northeastern US. The transition that takes place in this pattern will be mainly with shifts in wind direction. Today, with the center of the high to the north of the area, it’s a cool northeast wind, which may bring in low clouds from the ocean at times. At the same time the decaying storm system to our southwest will still be trying to send some higher level cloudiness in as well, so it won’t be perfectly sunny all day. The wind will be much lighter Wednesday as the high parks itself overhead. This will be a sunnier day and while inland areas warm up, as this warming takes place closer to the coast a natural sea breeze will kick in, cooling those areas back. Thursday, the high center starts to sink a little more to the south and the gradient wind, while light, will be more from the south, allowing further warming. Still, coastal areas where a wind with a southerly component travels over water will be cooler. By Friday, the center of the high will finally be to the south of New England, and a more westerly wind means that most of the region warms up nicely, but still there are exceptions where even a west wind blows over water before reaching the land, but these are quite limited to places such as outer Cape Cod, west-facing shores of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, and a place like Nahant, for example. These will be your coolest areas on Friday. A peek at the beginning of the weekend shows that a new high will be located in eastern Canada and that the high to the south will have weakened and replaced by a weak low pressure area – the remains of the low currently over the east central US. The high to the north may drive a back-door cold front down the from eastern Canada via Maine and cool the entire area down. What about Arthur? Yup. It’s out there, off the US Southeast Coast, and will be moving away and weakening as it tracks east and eventually southeast, possibly bringing some showery weather to Bermuda the next few days. Buh-bye!

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, with higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-40 interior, 40-45 coastal areas and Boston. Wind NE 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 except cooling back to the 50s coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Not a very high confidence forecast on the middle and end of the Memorial Day Weekend Sunday (May 24), which may be cloudy as low pressure to the south, while not strong, tries to press northward while high pressure to the north holds it off. Does rain make it into part of the area? Probably not, but I say that with hesitation because its spring in New England, and model performance, which normally suffers as you go out in time, suffers even more as we continue to lack some data input with fewer planes still in the sky during the pandemic. My current thought-out scenario would allow the high to eventually win out, slide southeastward, and warm the area up somewhat for Memorial Day (May 25). After this, a weakening frontal system from the northwest and a little more south to southwesterly air flow ahead of it would increase the shower chances heading through the middle of next week. I am certain this forecast will need a lot of fine-tuning.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)

As little confidence as I have for the 6-10 day period, I have even less for this one, so I will say that taking a look at the overall pattern leads me to believe both temperatures and precipitation will be near to slightly below average.

44 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Even though it was coolish yesterday, we still managed to top out at 63 here in JP.
    Not sure what the airport had?

      1. I am cautiously optimistic! More so than if what these models were showing was flipped. That said, neither model has been hitting it out of the park lately so I would take it with a grain of salt.

  11. Killington live webcam. Still a tremendous amount of snow left on Superstar….

    https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain?season=winter

    Killington just announced their golf course will open Saturday and mountain biking first weekend in June but unfortunately have pulled the plug on skiing.

    On a peak day at Superstar in May, the trail can attract 1,000 people as it is typically the only option left in the East to ski at this point aside from Tuckerman’s Ravine (which is also closed to skiers). Hence their thinking.

      1. A LOT!

        This was a photo I took on the Superstar lift on March 7 which was the last day I skied this year. They were pounding it with snow as temps held in the 20’s all day. The base on the trail at that time I would estimate was at least 25 FEET….

        https://imgur.com/ft5SlR3

        If you click on the magnifying glass and enlarge the picture, you can see the skiers on top of the snow mound in comparison to the level of ground below the lift. That’s an enormous amount of snow.

        And it’s held up well with the cool April and May we have had, some natural snow, and few people skiing on it.

  12. Winds are howling out of the east here today. Constant gusts of 35-40 mph, which is leading to some tree damage with everything fully leafed out. My power has flickered a couple times. We’re smack in between the big H over you guys in SNE, Arthur to our southeast and the cutoff to our southwest. Incredibly dry for an east wind also. RH values where I am (about 40 miles inland) are around 30%, and it’s even lower a little further west.

    Speaking of winds, here’s some storm survey results from NWS Boston from the severe weather event the other day – a couple instances of 90 to 100 mph straight line winds.

    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202005191726-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

    1. We have been getting some decent wind gusts here in CT today as well so can only imagine what it is like down there.

    1. Thanks JJ. Very scary whether straight line or tornado I think this is What TK believed all along.

    2. Thanks Jimmy! This clears it up. Was driving through Groton the day after and saw the tree damage. Wasn’t sure if a tornado had gone through. We are in Pepperell but on Hollis side. It got windy but not nearly like that area saw!

  14. 90 -100 mph whether it is from a tornado or straight line winds is going to leave a mark where it happens.

    2. This could be one of those seasons where the # of storms is above normal and the pattern to bring them to the East Coast is not there very often.

  17. I’ll be getting a new laptop (which I use far more often than my phone for the blog) this evening. I have quite the task ahead of me catching up on emails and cleaning up bookmarks and organizing saved things & files. I like that kind of stuff though. 🙂

    Let’s hope the transition is smooth. Not long after I get up to speed on the new machine, I am going to update some things related to WordPress and then very likely make a change to the cosmetics of the blog. I tried this before, and was met with much resistance, but they have quite the variety available now and I want to find something that looks new while retaining the overall feel of the current blog layout. I have always wanted to do this! It’s time. Shooting for a June 1 roll-out of the new design once I choose it. 🙂

    1. Nice! Change is good and unless a someone is paying for this blog, other than you, the choice is yours to make. Looking forward to it!

      1. I’m excited about it. I think there will be a trial of the different types and then maybe we’ll see if there’s a preference before I decide. All I know is that the current version is going byebyes.

  20. Hi all! Only have admin access on my phone for several hours so update was done from there. Laptop only my “WBZ Blog” identity for a bit. There is a new weather post up…

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