Wednesday May 27 2020 Forecast

33 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

The evolution of weather changes due to the position of high pressure continues, and today will be the warmest day of the stretch for many areas, along with lots of sun. But wait, you woke up early this morning and it was cloudy over Cape Ann and in most areas south of the I-90 (Mass Pike)! Yes, that lingering marine layer of air responsible from the low clouds at times since Sunday night. That will be gone in a matter of a couple hours as the sun burns it off. Yesterday, the predominant wind direction, while not strong, was from the southeast, keeping all coastal areas significantly cooler than inland locations. Today, the wind direction will be southwesterly, and that allows east-facing coastal areas to warm up as well, while south-facing and the limited west-facing shores (outer Cape Cod, for example), still are cooled by air passing over water first. You know the drill by now, right? Onward we go and we’ll see increasing moisture starting tonight in the form of cloudiness, which will be dominant both Thursday and Friday, as the air flow becomes a little more straight southerly. A shower threat will exist both Thursday night and Friday, but this early in the season a southerly wind limits thunderstorm chances without stronger additional dynamics, and I think any thunderstorm threat on Friday is now minimal unless you are well inland and near hilly terrain, and there are enough breaks of sunshine to help cook up stronger showers that could build enough. Something to watch. But we’ll also have a slower-moving cold front, which will not likely pass through the region until Saturday morning. The lack of lift on Friday from this feature will also limit thunderstorm chances, but the slower movement of the front will keep shower chances going into at least a portion of Saturday before improvement ensues. High pressure will move in for a stellar Sunday to end the month of May.

TODAY: Early low clouds/fog Cape Ann and mostly south of I-90, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast with coolest over Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. More humid. Highs 77-84 except 69-74 South Coast with coolest over Cape Cod. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 73-80 except 66-73 South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring morning and midday hours. Gradually lowering humidity. Highs 68-75. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

For several days now I’ve been eyeing a turn back to cooler weather for early June. This will take place as we see a bit of a blocking pattern and an anomalous cool upper level and surface pattern evolve, first with a dry cold front passing by June 1 and then low pressure forming and doing a loop offshore by June 2 helping to pull the initial shot of cool air into the region. We’ll have to watch that offshore low for its position, because sometimes these things can migrate far enough west to bring at least cloudiness and possibly wet weather to this area but for now thinking it stays mostly offshore and just serves as a driver of cool air. The behavior of that feature will impact the timing of what comes after, but based on current expected occurrences thinking that we get briefly fair and milder weather June 3 then some unsettled weather and a renewed push of cool air for June 4-5. Probably some adjustment will be needed for details.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Overall pattern continues to look cooler and drier than average but at least one threat of showers/thunderstorms should occur.

33 thoughts on “Wednesday May 27 2020 Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I went to look at the satellite this morning and was caught by the big blob of clouds off of the southeast Coast.

    Then, I looked at the Charleston radar loop and there was a pretty good rotation in the radar and the obs had N and NW winds on the south side of SC.

    And, went to the NHC page and we have Tropical Storm Bertha making landfall this morning on the SC coast.

    Folks, I wonder if the atmosphere is giving early indications of the upcoming tropical season.

    1. Looks as if Bertha went over Mt. Pleasant. A couple of bouts of rough weather down there in the past week or so.

  3. Thank you and good morning, TK.

    I was definitely up early. That doesn’t seem to happen any more. 🙂 So missed any fog.

  5. We have not seen Shotime in a while, but I’m sending happy birthday wishes in hopes the day is special.

  6. Thanks TK
    Let’s hope that cooler than normal temperature forecast holds for early June. As long as the sun is out I don’t care that it is cooler than normal.

  7. Thanks, TK…

    Another fine morning!

    I know it’s a long way off, but, with each run of the GFS lately, there seems to be a tropical system coming north out of the Bay of Campeche around June 6.

    I am a novice at all of this, but, am I right?

  9. Logan’s wind is more South than South West, which should keep the temperature
    in check. Currently 79, while Burlington VT and Montreal are at 86.

    1. Now Logan’s South wind has a little Easterly component to it.
      If it stays like this, Logan will not exceed low 80s.

  10. Bertha is the second named storm of the year that was not completely tropical.

    No surprise.

  11. To your point, Captain, the 12z GFS continues a signal for some tropical activity in emerging out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico. We’ll see.

    Up here, maybe the coolest surge comes early next week. Otherwise, seems to be plenty of days with 850 temps of 6C to 10C, so that looks very pleasant to me, right around average. Mixed in there, are some 850 mb temps of 12C or a bit higher, so some warm days too. Nothing that looks uncomfortably hot or annoyingly chilly.

  13. I had an “Aunt Bertha” and she lived to be 97. She was in relatively good health for her age in body and mind. Her death was sudden prior to a brief illness in 1997.

    She lived through the 1918 pandemic and did get the influenza virus as a teen.

  14. Montreal currently at 95 and Massena NY at 93
    While Burlington VT is 91

    Logan sits at 82 with SOUTH wind. THANK YOU South Wind!!!!

      1. One of my long time friends & colleagues says this pattern is very upside down with heat north and cool south. He lives in the northern Mid Atlantic and it’s not been warm there really at all yet.

        1. To his point… 81 here in southern NJ. Another great day! The Canadians can keep their 90s haha.

  15. I would be curious if there has ever been a winter with a seasonal snowfall greater in SNE than NNE.

  17. Thank you, TK.

    Well, I did it. I ran 7 miles at midday just to experience the higher temps and humidity. I have to get used to it. And … did not go so well. I feel sick. No, it’s not Covid-19. But, even today’s tame temps and humidity do a number on my body. Oh well, ~100 days until fall. And this year I’m going to mark them on my calendar. I’m not wishing time away. I will occasionally enjoy some summer moments. But, I really look forward to seeing my daughter in London. Come hell or high water, I’m flying there in October. Plus, the air will be dry again. I’ll feel human.

    1. we probably won’t get any good idea on what will happen with that tropical feature until next week. Models have had it go from hitting the Mexican coast, to hitting any where along the gulf coast, to hitting Cuba/Jamaica and the Bahamas.

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