Saturday Forecast

8:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 4-8)
The very large and strong ocean storm that brought wind, rain, and some coastal flooding over the last couple days is now pulling away, having completed its cyclonic loop offshore southeast of New England. This means there will be slight improvement in the weather this weekend. Enough dry air should work in from the north today to break up the clouds to allow at least partial sun for some of the region. By Sunday will be enjoying a milder land breeze, but lots of clouds will still be around as a trough and weak front approach from the west. This front may deliver a few rain showers Sunday night before moving offshore and opening the door for an area of high pressure with fair and milder weather for Monday. A back-door cold front may slip down the coast from Maine into southern New England Tuesday to chill the region down somewhat, and this may set up a chilly and wet Wednesday as a wave of low pressure comings along from the west.
TODAY: Cloudy start with area of drizzle especially South Shore to South Coast of MA. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny midday on. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially near coastal areas through midday.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55 occurring in the morning or midday, then cooler. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 9-13)
Tricky forecast with timing and boundaries. Here’s my best shot. Warm front passes and puts us briefly into breezy and warmer conditions April 9 but the day may start chilly and damp and end with rain showers as a cold front approaches. Dry, windy, cooler April 10-11. Will have to watch for a wave of low pressure with chilly and unsettled weather April 12 and/or 13. This system may be occurring with cold enough air around for some mixing with frozen precipitation, but it’s a long way off so will monitor trends.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 14-18)
Overall pattern looks cooler than average. Best chance of unsettled weather comes in the April 15-17 window.

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C-19 Chat Post – April 4 2020

This is the first of daily COVID-19 posts for the purpose of the discussion of the ongoing pandemic. The only rules for these posts are basically the same as the weather posts. While it’s inevitable that the actions of politicians will have to be part of the discussion, as they are charged with the job of getting us through this (federal, state, and local), please remember to choose your words wisely. It is ok to disagree with an action by an elected official, but don’t resort to name-calling and especially vulgarity because that won’t help anybody. As always, if you disagree with someone else commenting, a discussion is fine so long as it is kept civil. No shaming. No name calling. No threats of any kind. If you feel you can’t be civil with somebody, then refrain from communicating with them. It’s that simple. Aside of a few reminders, this will be the only time that I spell out those rules in grand detail. I trust that we can all follow them. This section was created to help you all discuss the situation. Your participation in it is strictly voluntary, and there will be a weather post available to chat weather if you do not wish to take part in the COVID-19 discussion. How long these posts will continue daily will be determined by the situation going forward, and will be something I will evaluate in the future. It will not be a permanent feature of the blog, but rather will be temporary until we don’t really need it. In the mean time, use it wisely and I hope it helps!

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Friday Forecast

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 3-7)
A quick update here. Not many changes. A very large ocean storm which would have had major impact on the region had it been closer in its loop will have just moderate impact with wind and rain, including coastal rough surf, until early Saturday before it pulls away and the weekend gradually improves. A weakening front will cross the region in the early hours of Monday, fairly unnoticed. The trend after a chilly Friday-Saturday will be for a moderation in temperature through Monday before we knock it back a little bit on Tuesday as the air flow may become onshore again with a disturbance passing to the south and high pressure shifting its center to the north.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts all areas which may reach or exceed 30 MPH inland and easily exceed 40 MPH coast with some gusts in the 45-55 MPH range.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain possible. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain early morning, mainly south of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 8-12)
West to east flow in the weather pattern but broad low pressure crossing the region may bring a rain shower risk for the first couple days of the period. Temperatures near to above normal through mid period then cooler late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 13-17)
A cooler pattern for this period with the potential for a storm to impact the region with rain or even mix around April 13 before a drier trend arrives.

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Thursday Forecast

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)
A large ocean storm southeast of New England will do a broad cyclonic loop and send lobes of moisture into southeastern New England with periods of rain and breezy to windy conditions through Friday, before things start to transition back to a more west-to-east flowing pattern over the weekend and early next week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 41-48. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 37-44. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain.. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)
West to east flow in the weather pattern but broad low pressure crossing the region may bring a rain shower risk for a few days mainly early to mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)
Trending cooler again, need to watch storm track to determine impact ranging from just rain showers to a steadier rain/mix situation developing especially early to mid period.

Posted in Weather | 95 Comments

Wednesday Forecast

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)
April arrives with a blocking pattern still in place. This pattern takes low pressure passing south of the region today and forces it to do a broad anticyclonic loop east of New England Thursday and Friday, which means lobes of moisture from it will back into the region Thursday into Friday with wet weather. Any rainfall is beneficial as it goes to lessening the deficit we have, reducing brush fire danger, and cutting down early-season pollen. Things will start to move the more traditional west-to-east way again when we get to the weekend, which will be dry, starting chilly then warming up slightly as a small area of high pressure moves across the region then offshore. A weak frontal boundary moving in from the west by Sunday night may trigger a rain shower.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible early. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, gradually diminishing west to east later in the day. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a rain shower evening. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)
A little more west to east movement may continue in the pattern with milder conditions overall and some unsettled weather mainly the middle 3 days of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)
Low confidence again but still leaning a little more away from blocking and a milder more progressive pattern at this time.

Posted in Weather | 93 Comments

Tuesday Forecast

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A blocking pattern will continue as we end March and begin April. First it allows some drier weather the next couple days. Next it will force low pressure initially south of the region as it move eastward, then capturing it and causing a large loop in its track, bringing wet weather back for a time later Thursday to early Friday. Dry weather will be back for the remainder of Friday to Saturday as the low pulls away.
TODAY: Partly sunny. A rain or snow shower near the South Coast early. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly afternoon and favoring eastern coastal areas. Highs 43-50. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)
Milder April 5, a late-day rain shower possible. Cooler thereafter with additional unsettled weather possible April 6-8 then dry weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)
Not high confidence but blocking may weaken. This would be a mostly dry pattern with a couple brief and minor unsettled weather events, starting cool then moderating.

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Monday Forecast

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
A blocking pattern (high pressure eastern Canada, upper level low pressure over the US Northeast, will remain in place, keeping us in a cool and unsettled regime. There are no significant changes to yesterday’s discussion so just going to update the forecast below.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog this morning. Scattered rain showers, favoring mid to late afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered rain or snow showers overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered rain or snow showers favoring early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly afternoon and favoring eastern coastal areas. Highs 43-50. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain evening, favoring eastern coastal areas. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)
Blocking weakens briefly then reloads. It lets things shuffle a bit with dry, cool weather then a brief warm up April 4-5 before cool/unsettled weather chances increase again mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)
Leaning toward cooler than average but drier than average weather overall for this 5-day period with a strong enough blocking pattern to keep a lot of the storminess to the south and east of the region.

Posted in Weather | 79 Comments

Sunday Forecast

8:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
An early spring blocking pattern will keep our pattern cool and unsettled during this 5-day period, as is quite evident today – a wet and cool day. Upper level low pressure will traverse the region Monday into Tuesday but slow down as high pressure builds over eastern Canada. Another surface low will travel eastward and pass south of the region on by Wednesday but will be captured by the upper low and do a loop out over the ocean to the east of New England, probably enough to throw some wet weather back into the region sometime Thursday.
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH, strongest along the coast with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening. Rain showers likely overnight. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 38-45. Wind E 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, favoring mid to late afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered rain or snow showers overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered rain or snow showers favoring the morning. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 43-50. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)
Blocking pattern temporarily weakens with a cooler, drier northwesterly flow April 3-4 followed by moderating temperatures April 5 before the block strengthens and cooler and unsettled weather chances increase again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)
Leaning toward cooler than average but drier than average weather overall for this 5-day period with a strong enough blocking pattern to keep a lot of the storminess to the south and east of the region.

Posted in Weather | 175 Comments

Saturday Forecast

10:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Over the next several days, after this morning’s sunny start, any sun we see will be a bonus, as we head into an unsettled weather pattern. This start as broad low pressure moves into the Great Lakes but its warm front extending eastward from it, south of New England, never quite makes it through, and is the focus for a new low to form, which will pass just south of the region Sunday evening, keeping us on the chilly side of this system, but enough instability aloft may trigger some elevated convection and result in a few thundestorms. This system will produce a fair amount of needed rainfall. We’ve been quite dry in 2020 to date and a recent event along with this event will eliminate some of that deficit. Once the rain-producing part of this system has departed offshore, we’ll be stuck under upper level low pressure for the days following. Earlier it looked like another broad low would approach on April 1, but today I’m leaning a little more toward the upper low being more dominant and actually deflecting the moisture from that storm to the south, while keeping our area unsettled with lots of clouds and precipitation of a showery nature, and I say precipitation because some of those showers may end up in the form of snow once we get to Tuesday morning, as marginally cold enough air will be in place.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 50-57, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives late evening and overnight southwest to northeast. Lows 37-44. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH, strongest along the coast with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening. Rain showers likely overnight. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 38-45. Wind E 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, favoring late morning and afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered rain or snow showers overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered rain or snow showers favoring the morning. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)
Overall pattern features a block in the atmosphere, high pressure eastern Canada and low pressure northeastern US, which is a cooler than average and unsettled pattern. Details to be worked out as the days draw closer.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)
May be tough to shake the pattern in place for a while, which is typical of springtime, but also guidance does not do a great job all the time so the forecast here is low confidence, leaning toward cooler than average and somewhat unsettled.

Posted in Weather | 79 Comments

Friday Forecast

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)
Down the home stretch of March we come, a month that weather-wise was more like a lamb than a lion, although we’ll get a little bit of the lion’s roar before it’s over. But first, as a small storm system passes south of the region early today, many locations start with some grey sky, and even some wet weather near the South Coast, but sun will return and the breeze will pick up, though it will be milder than yesterday for most because it will be a land breeze and not a breeze off the chilly ocean like we had yesterday. The weekend starts off nice with sun giving way to clouds on Saturday, then takes a turn as low pressure heads through the Great Lakes then redevelops on its warm front just south of New England during Sunday. With high pressure holding on in eastern Canada, this set-up is cool and wet for southeastern New England, so get ready for a chilly/wet Sunday. Monday will remain somewhat unsettled as what was the original low from this system will have to come across the region as a weakening trough of low pressure (not an atypical occurrence for a low that was detoured by Canadian high pressure). By Tuesday, a bubble of this high will extended down and end the month of March on a dry but cool note, though how much sun wet see that day remains to be seen.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start including areas of rain near the South Coast, then sun returning northwest to southeast. Highs 50-57 Cape Cod, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/rain possible overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coastal areas.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering to showers/drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)
Broad low pressure approaches and may impact the region April 1 into April 2 but its level of impact is uncertain. High pressure in eastern Canada may be strong enough to force a lot of it south of New England. If it is close enough for impact there may be some mix/snow involved for a portion of the time. Drier weather and on the cool side April 3-4, followed by a warm-up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)
A return to near to below normal temperatures with unsettled weather favoring the early to mid portion of this period.

Posted in Weather | 106 Comments