DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Discussion…

A little bonus sunshine to start your Friday in much of the WHW forecast area as a batch of drier air came in during the pre-dawn hours to obliterate the fog and low clouds. But stratocumulus clouds are already making a comeback from west to east and they will likely dominate the sky a good portion of the day with abundant low level moisture to sustain them. Nevertheless, we’re in a fairly mild air mass, so it will be a comfortable day by late November standards. A weak cold front will cross the region from west to east on Saturday, with some additional cloudiness, although I am leaning away from any rain shower threat. This front will bring slightly cooler air into the region through Sunday, which itself will be a nice day as high pressure moves across the region. And then things get a little more fun for the last day of November (Monday) and first of December (Tuesday). A more amplified upper level pattern puts a deeper trough of low pressure into the eastern US and in response a fairly impressive surface storm system will get going, and track into the Great Lakes. That track puts our area on the mild side of the storm and we can expect a decent shot of rain and wind later Monday as a result. We’ll get into some drying by Tuesday as the cold front trailing that low pushes offshore, but plenty of upper level energy means that we’ll have additional rain shower chances Tuesday.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening clouds. Numerous rain showers arrive west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of addition rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Low pressure in eastern Canada sends a trough through the Northeast and may trigger a few rain and/or snow showers as it turns colder Decmeber 2. High pressure passing south of the region brings fair, cool, breezy weaher December 3 and dry, seasonably cool and more tranquil weather December 4. December 5-6 weekend – starts fair and chilly, ends with rain/mix/snow threat as we’ll have to watch low pressure approaching from the southwest. Too early to know the track and details of this potential system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Indications of some blocking in the pattern which could result in near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation, including wintry weather chances, during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – November 27 2020

COMMENTARY

Nobody needs to be reminded what the last 10 months have been like. Regardless of your point of view and set of beliefs on the many issues that impact us daily, we all have one paramount commonality. We are all human beings, capable of understanding and compassion, and we should exercise that to the best of our ability every day, for every day is a gift and an opportunity for you to make what you can out of. I realize for some, for many in fact, there are things out of our control – health and other issues, life circumstances, etc. This is where I sincerely hope we have at least a friend and/or loved one we can count on, who will be there for us, knowing we’d be there for them if and when needed. Nobody is going to magically fix a health issue, something going wrong in somebody’s life, or make disease disappear. If only we could… What we can do is only the best we can do: support one another, make choices, some of which will be mistakes. Learn from the mistakes, grow with the successes, share what is good with those around you, and if we all do the same, we’d be spreading something that everybody would benefit from. It’s time to put aside differences, turn our backs on hatred, and try to be thankful for what we have. It’s not always an easy thing to do, but we have to try. Wherever you find yourselves today, I hope you have the happiest Thanksgiving that you can possibly have. And I thank all of you for supporting this blog, which is nearing its tenth anniversary. Where does the time go? Take care, friends. Be safe. Peace.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Discussion…

Shifting gears now, onto the weather, and an active pattern sends yet another storm system into our region for the holiday. The down-side is that it makes local travel and “outdoor dining” for the holiday much less pleasant, and the up-side is that we get another good dose of rain to contribute to reducing our long-term precipitation deficit. There’s enough instability in the atmosphere that as an occluding frontal system passes through, we’ll have rounds of showers, some heavy, that may include thunder. In 2017 we had thundersnow on Christmas and we may have thunder for Thanksgiving today. All that’s left is a good old fashioned Halloween thunderstorm, right? Maybe next year… 😉 Today, our greatest chance of thunder will be south of Boston as that area is in the warmest and most unstable air. As was suspected, the warm air has had trouble pushing too far to the north, with the boundary having even slipped back to the south again late yesterday. This “cold air damming” set-up is rather common around here, especially in the colder season from later autumn through mid spring, and is something that a lot of computer guidance will have trouble with, often under-predicting its influence. Thankfully, the surface temperatures on the cold side of the boundary over interior northern MA and southern NH sit above freezing, so we’re not seeing any icing issues, just cold, raw, wet weather. Closer to the coast of MA down through RI we’ve seen the milder air move in with a little more ease, and temperatures as of 8 a.m. range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. We won’t see too much more rise in these areas, perhaps a few upper 50s to near 60 degree readings over parts of southeastern MA and RI to go along with the showers and downpours. The main front pushes through the region this evening and the wet weather will move out, but initially, winds will be fairly light and there may be some areas of fog to contend with, so keep that in mind if you have evening or nighttime travel plans, as visibility may be reduced. Some improvement takes place tomorrow, but it may be very tough to break up all the cloudiness that remains, as we don’t have a really strong push of westerly wind to help. While an upper disturbance coming by may trigger a quick passing shower, most areas will remain dry during the day, despite the cloudiness, and the air will be fairly mild, so while the ground may remain damp, otherwise it won’t be too bad out there is you plan to get outside to walk or put up Christmas lights / decorations. If you wait for Saturday and Sunday to do these things, you’ll be in luck too. Other than a weak cold front moving through from west to east with some clouds and a very remote chance of a quick shower Saturday, it won’t be a bad day. Sunday ends up a bit cooler but will feature more sunshine. Don’t get used to that though. Things change quickly on Monday as the next storm system takes shape and heads this way. The low track on this one will be west of New England, and by later Monday we’ll find ourselves in a pretty significant southerly air flow and staring at a band of moderate to heavy rainfall. While it’s still a handful of days away, the initial thought on this is that it will be a late day and nighttime “main event” of rain, wind, and possible thunder – something to monitor and tweak as we get closer to it. But it looks like November may borrow the March lion for its exit.

Details…

TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers, including the chance of thunderstorms favoring the South Coast region. Highs 45-52 interior northern MA and southern NH, 53-60 elsewhere. Wind E under 10 MPH interior northern MA and southern NH, SE to S 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered showers and a chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. Spotty drizzle and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning and midday with a slight chance of a brief rain shower, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W around 10 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening clouds. Numerous rain showers arrive west to east by late-day or night. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)

As December gets underway, we’ll be dealing with a more amplified pattern that has a trough in the interior eastern US initially, putting our area in a southwesterly air flow aloft. The storm that approaches us on Monday will likely have a broad center across the Great Lakes region with us in mild air with a rain shower threat on December 1, although much of that day may end up rain-free. Some cooler air will get in here in modified form behind this system as it lifts away into eastern Canada and shifts the wind to more westerly December 2-3. We’ll have to watch for another storm threat December 4 and/or 5, with timing uncertain. Odds would favor our area being on the milder side of that system as well, as the pattern would probably still favor a low track over the interior eastern US, but given model divergence and inconsistency, we’ll be having to do a lot of defining of possibility and detail with this system as that time draws closer.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Continued hints of an evolving blocking pattern with additional chances of unsettled weather here, but with a trend toward a little colder weather as well, we’ll have to start thinking about the possibility of some wintry weather. Keep in mind, this is just a rough outlook on a pattern that may evolve more slowly, and that the forecast itself as low confidence based on the reasons previously discussed. So think of this as a “very rough draft outlook” if you will. 🙂

C-19 Chat Post – November 26 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Discussion…

Well, here we are, the Wednesday through Sunday period that is traditionally known as “Thanksgiving Weekend”, which includes the day-before, the holiday itself, “Black Friday”, and the actual weekend. Not to beat a dead horse, but we all know that this year is very different for many of us, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a need for a weather forecast, so here’s mine for this 5 day period, and it goes something like this…. Initially, we sit in air that is quite cold especially away from the South Coast, so it’s a good thing that the warm front that approaches us is not a bigger generator of precipitation, or we’d be dealing with some frozen stuff. A quick look at the observations as of 7 a.m. will show temperatures from the upper 20s to lower 30s over southern NH and much of eastern MA with a very light northerly air flow, except for coastal and southern areas where it is in the upper 30s to lower 40s with a light wind mostly from the southeast. There may be a few flakes of snow, pellets of ice, and drops of rain that fall from these clouds in spotty locations today, but for the most part the air is dry enough between the mid level cloud deck and the surface that anything falling out of the clouds will dry up before reaching the surface. With the surface warm front still south of most of the area this evening, and a little more moisture available, we should see a period of light rain especially north of I-90 during the evening to overnight hours, and there may be just enough cold air still at the surface for a little icing if that rain is significant enough to wet the ground. This would be most likely over interior southern NH and far northern MA. Eventually as we get to Thanksgiving morning, the surface temperature should be warm enough in these areas that any ice threat would be gone. The front itself is going to struggle getting north of the I-90 area on Thursday, so the daytime temperatures will reflect that, holding in the 40s in southern NH and far northern MA while climbing into the 50s in areas to the south, especially nearer the South Coast where a few locations may make a run at 60. A cold front will sweep eastward toward the region during the day on Thanksgiving, but this version is a little weaker than what we saw back on Monday, and the low pressure area parenting it will be doing the “gelatin effect” and wobbling its way along the frontal boundary that had been struggling to move northward through the region. But regardless of the surface shenanigans, the upper level energy will be potent enough with this system for a couple solid rounds of showers, the first Thursday morning to midday, which may include thunder in some South Coast locations, and the second one from late afternoon into evening which may include downpours and embedded thunder anywhere in the region. Since the surface set-up will feature a little bit of a low pressure center over to just east of the region as it exits, we will have a lot of low level moisture left in place to start Friday, since we will lack a good westerly air flow to clear it all out of here like what we saw with Monday’s frontal passage. So it may take a good part of the day Friday to rid ourselves of the clouds, waiting for a little upper level disturbance to cross the region, which itself may kick off a shower. But don’t cancel any outdoor decorating plans for Friday because it will be a generally dry day with air not all that cold. Saturday and Sunday look like two very pleasant days with high pressure generally in control, although a weak surface trough still has to come through the region sometime during the first half of Saturday, most likely accompanied by some clouds but only the slightest chance of a rain shower.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light snow/sleet/rain possible. Highs 37-44. Wind N to NE under 10 MPH interior southern NH and interior MA, E to SE up to 10 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle developing, with the potential for some icing interior southern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38 southern NH and north central MA, 38-45 interior central MA to northeastern MA, and 45-52 in areas to the south during the evening. Temperatures may rise slightly overnight. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers, especially morning and midday, including the chance of thunderstorms favoring the South Coast region. Highs 43-50 north of I-90, 51-58 to the south. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH north of I-90, SE to S 5-15 MPH to the south.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Spotty drizzle and patchy fog overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind W around 10 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A large scale trough approaches from the west and our area will see a temperature moderation initially with wet weather moving in on November 30 and lingering on December 1 as a frontal boundary and up to a couple waves of low pressure move along the boundary. Should turn drier and somewhat cooler December 2-3 but unsettled weather may return before the period is over.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Seeing hints of some high latitude blocking and increased chances of unsettled weather here, but this pattern is likely to be slower to evolve than any guidance suggests at this point. Still watching the December 6-8 period for a potential unsettled weather event.

C-19 Chat Post – November 25 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Discussion…

On we roll toward the end of November, with Thanksgiving just 2 days away. Today will be the coldest day of this week as high pressure in the Great Lakes delivers an air mass right out of Canada, air that crossed over snow covered ground on its way here. You’ll feel that chill in the air, minus the snow, but with a gusty breeze today. High pressure will slide eastward, its center passing to our north, tonight into early Wednesday. As a warm front approaches Wednesday, we’ll see clouds move in. As previously noted, this warm front is going to be in for a struggle to make much progress into New England Wednesday night into Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) as low pressure moves slowly eastward into the region. While the actual low center will be weakening, its center, or what’s left of it, will move along the frontal boundary, which by the time it gets into the area will become generally stationary. This means that the warm air probably gets into the South Coast and maybe as far north as I-90 but not much further. This sets up the issue of possible icing in north central MA and interior southern NH if precipitation comes in early enough Wednesday evening, and also sets up an interesting temperature forecast for both Wednesday night and Thursday. Thanksgiving Day itself is likely to be overcast through the day, and see periods of rain, especially during the morning and midday hours. Once we get to Thursday night and Friday, the wind will turn more to the north and eventually northwest, and we will dry out as clouds break, but there is still the risk of a passing rain shower as a disturbance crosses the region on Friday. Even Saturday, which looks mainly dry and milder will have the chance of a passing shower as a front passes through later in the day or during the evening.

Details…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix through midday then mostly sunny rest of afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NE and diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early morning sun and high clouds, then thicker overcast. Slight chance of brief very light snow/mix southern NH and far northern MA late morning or midday. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle developing, with the potential for some icing interior southern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38 southern NH and north central MA, 38-45 interior central MA to northeastern MA, and 45-52 in areas to the south during the evening. Temperatures may rise slightly overnight. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Chance of a few lingering showers or some drizzle in the afternoon. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA, 48-55 to the south. Wind E to SE around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few additional showers possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 37-44. Wind NE to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

I don’t know. Just kidding – killing a bad joke. Working out the timing and looks like high pressure brings a nice day for November 29 to end “Thanksgiving Weekend” before low pressure comes at us from the southwest and brings a beneficial rain event for the last day of November. There remains some uncertainty in how the first few days of December play out with guidance again all over the place. My current thought is that we may need to watch for a low pressure wave to bring additional unsettled weather at the same time we watch the approach of cold air December 1. Dry/colder weather follows that.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Hints of of what may be some high latitude blocking trying to set up at some point during this period. This would increase the chance of some East Coast storminess while we’re in the battle zone of warm air to the south and east and much colder air to the west and north. Far too soon for details, other than I’m most concerned with the December 6-8 period.

C-19 Chat Post – November 24 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Discussion…

Thanksgiving Week. I know that travel will be far less than usual, but there will still be some people on the road, depending on their situations, for errands and visits leading up to and including the holiday on Thursday, so it’s still an important forecast for moving about during these days. This morning, a warm front divides the WHW forecast area in half, still in the cool air in most areas north of I-90 while areas to the south are warmer and more humid, and this front is trying to push northward, and as previously stated, will probably never quite make it all the way through southern NH before a strong cold front from the west comes through the entire region. Widespread moderate to occasionally heavy showers will accompany this system as it passes through, and there may even be some thunder with it. This has already been occurring in parts of the region (South Coast, RI). Areas prone to flooding will likely see some, and this may be worsened by some leaf-clogged storm drains. Keep that in mind if driving. By the end of the day, we’ll be seeing the arrival of a cold Canadian air mass via the Great Lakes, and as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region through Tuesday, we’ll see a period of dry, breezy, and chilly November weather. This won’t last long, however, as the high will slide to the east and be offshore by Wednesday. But it’s not going to be just a simple case of warming right back up on Wednesday. We’ll see clouds increase ahead of a warm front, and by the end of the day some precipitation may be generated by the approach of that front, which will probably get into the South Coast region with no issue and through the Providence / Hartford area and into Boston’s southern suburbs as well, but how far north of there it gets is in question. Models tend to handle this poorly, moving the warm air too far north too quickly, although some of the guidance is already catching on that this front may never quite make it as far north as northern MA and southern NH at all, and eventually a wave of low pressure will ripple along it and move over or even just south of a lot of the region through Thanksgiving Day, which looks like an overcast and wet day. But before that happens, we may have an issue with some icing over interior southern NH and northern MA as the onset of rain/drizzle may be met with surface temperatures slightly below freezing there Wednesday evening. Regardless of how this plays out, after our unsettled Thanksgiving, conditions improve for Friday, which will be a milder and mostly dry day, although I cannot rule out a couple showers due to a disturbance moving across the region.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with widespread showers, some heavy, including embedded thunderstorms in some locations. Street and parking lot flooding may occur where heavier showers are occurring. Showers end and clouds break later in the day, and a clearing line may approach from the west quickly enough for the sun to appear before setting, at least in areas to the west. Highs 48-55 southern NH and northern MA, 55-62 to the south. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas by late day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then becoming cloudy. Highs 37-44 southern NH and northern MA, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle, with the potential for some icing interior southern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38 southern NH and north central MA, 38-45 interior central MA to northeastern MA, and 45-52 in areas to the south during the evening. Temperatures may rise slightly overnight. Wind NE to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Chance of a few lingering showers or some drizzle in the afternoon. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA, 48-55 to the south. Wind E to SE around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

If I wrote “I really don’t know” in this space it would be reasonably accurate. The insane model divergence tries to lead forecasters astray. Going to keep November 28-29 mainly dry and lean toward November 30 for the next unsettled system which would be in the form of rain. Drier but somewhat colder as December arrives, but low confidence on that as well.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Leaving this the same as yesterday: Highly uncertain outlook with many questions to be answered about the pattern’s evolution, but the scenario I feel is most likely looking at it this far in advance is for dry but seasonably chilly weather early in the period, briefly milder and still dry mid period, and a possible flip to colder with a storm threat at the end of the period, although we may be very near a boundary of warmth to the south with much colder air to the north, so that would set-up a vast range of how the weather could turn out here.

C-19 Chat Post – November 23 2020