Sunday July 5 2020 Forecast

8:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

While the clouds cleared out better than I expected yesterday, the marine layer held strong, and that has lead to a cloudier morning than I expected today. Also, the lead trough in a 1-2-punch from the northwest carries quite a bit of cloudiness above the stratus we have over much of the region now, so this will keep us on the cloudier side at least into if not through mid morning until enough of the mid level cloudiness goes by to allow the sun to work on the stratus layer below. Also, the expected early morning showers near the NH Seacoast are right in that region as of the writing of this update (8AM), and a few may clip far northeastern MA as well before exiting to sea. Eventually, we get into sunshine and it warms up rather quickly, but there will be a boundary setting up as we try to set up a land breeze against what still wants to be an onshore flow. This boundary is going to be our first potential trigger point for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. This may take place anywhere along the boundary, but probably only a couple or a few cells, so we’ll have to visually watch the clouds and of course the radar and now-cast the event if and when it unfolds a bit later. The second kicker is a short wave / cold front coming down from northern New England later in the day and this evening. Still favoring southern, especially southeastern NH, and eastern, especially northeastern MA for the greatest storm potential. These storms may appear in cluster form and have the potential for wind damage, both straight line and (lower risk of) tornadic. Wind damage should be isolated, but could be significant where it occurs. And of course hail and frequent lightning may accompany any storms today. Things settle down later tonight and then a little push of high pressure from eastern Canada comes for Monday, a day of northerly to easterly wind but with dry weather. Then as the high slips off to the southeast, the wind will turn more southeasterly on Tuesday, which may feature more cloudiness as a warm front approaches. A shower may occur near this boundary but activity should be fairly limited on Tuesday as the boundary lifts very slowly through the region. This will set up a more humid and warmer day Wednesday, with a warm front passing and a cold front approaching – a set-up for possible thunderstorms. This boundary will weaken but may still be in the area Thursday for continued humid weather and an additional risk of a shower or storm in some locations.

TODAY: Cloudy into or through mid morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern MA mid to late afternoon, and potential thunderstorms in southeastern NH and northeastern MA by early evening. Humid. Highs 80-87, but cooler along some coastal areas. Wind variable under 10 MPH this morning, E 5-15 MPH immediate coast and SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere midday on, but variable and gusty winds, potentially strong, are possible near and in any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with possible showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH, gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Slight risk of a shower. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 82-89, cooler some South Coast locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

A piece of upper level high pressure will decrease the shower and thunderstorm risk but briefly spike the heat in the region on July 10, potentially the hottest day of the summer so far. Watching the potential for some increased moisture in the region during the July 11-12 weekend translating to less heat, but higher humidity and a great shower/t-storm risk. Drier air follows for July 13-14 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

The ridge center re-forms well to the west, leaving this area in a northwesterly air flow, which features a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms from passing disturbance, and temperatures generally near to slightly above normal.

Saturday July 4 2020 Forecast

8:43AM

COMMENTARY

We may be in the midst of events we did not picture just one year ago on the country’s birthday, but it is the country’s birthday, and this should be not only a time to reflect where we have been and where we are going, hopefully learning from the mistakes made along the way, but also a time to celebrate the nation, because even if there are questions about decisions and methods of handling things, disagreements on what is what, there is one thing that remains. We are all one country under one flag. Whether you are native to this land, or descendant of the many who have travelled to it, you are part of this one, and should be regarded as such. I am hopeful that we can heal the wounds and fix the errors going forward. But we need everybody to find a little bit of that hope. Send that message to your family and your friends. Ask them to do the same. We’ve had enough bad spreading among us. Now it’s time to spread some good. Happy Independence Day one and all! Happy Birthday United States of America!

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

The WHW forecast area remains entrenched in the marine layer this Saturday morning, but we will see an erosion of that layer take place gradually today and tonight, and more completely during Sunday, which in itself may be a very interesting weather day. But first, a rather calm day today, just lots of clouds, which do erode especially away from the coast. How quickly this occurs will determine how much sun arrives and for how long. So today’s full temperature range on the forecast takes into account that uncertainty. I’m not advocating the use of personal fireworks in areas where they are illegal, but if you happen to be “viewing” them somewhere this evening, the weather will cooperate. Onto Sunday: An interesting set-up for thunderstorms, not a widespread outbreak, but warmer and more humid air at the surface, cooler aloft and a fairly vigorous disturbance coming down from the northwest. We will see a risk of thunderstorms, favoring southern NH and eastern MA, during the afternoon and evening. Some of these may be strong to locally severe, so we need to eye it closely. Additional kickers for activity may include a sea breeze boundary, and any outflow boundaries leftover by possible activity occurring offshore in the pre-dawn hours as well as any early showers and storms that may pop up. I’m making a minor change to the forecast going into early next week. Behind Sunday’s disturbance, and I should have known, comes a little push of high pressure from eastern Canada, which means Monday will be a day of northerly to easterly wind but with dry weather. Then as the high slips off to the southeast, the wind will turn more southeasterly on Tuesday, which may feature more cloudiness as a warm front approaches. This will set up a more humid and warmer day Wednesday, with a warm front passing and a cold front approaching – a set-up for possible thunderstorms.

TODAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy start. Clouds break for sun, especially away from the coast, during the day. Highs 68-75 within about 10 miles of the coast, 75-82 further inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Brief shower possible near NH Seacoast overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S overnight.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with possible showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH, gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80m, coolest coast. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 81-88, cooler some South Coast locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

A piece of the upper level ridge from the West may move into the East will increase the risk of a few hotter days during this period, and we’ll have to watch for a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as well.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

The ridge center re-forms well to the west, leaving this area in a northwesterly air flow, which features a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms from passing disturbance, and temperatures generally near to slightly above normal.

Friday July 3 2020 Forecast

9:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

A back-door cold front has made its way across a good portion of the region this morning, and while slowing down is still keeping enough momentum to finish its journey across the entire WHW forecast area by midday today. Generous low level moisture means lots of stratus clouds, which as of the writing of this blog update at 9:30AM) have yet to reach southern RI and eastern CT, but will get there too. We’ve reached the high temperature for the day at this point in most areas, with any additional rise very brief, before temperatures steady out or slide slowly back during the remainder of the day. As for thunderstorm development today, it will be confined to where the warm air is, i.e., well to the west. Remnants of these may get into Worcester County and eastern CT and even parts of northern and western RI later in the day or this evening, but that should be it for those. We may also see a shower or thunderstorm briefly visit Nantucket or the elbow of Cape Cod around midnight tonight or the early hours of Saturday due to an inverted trough nearby, but that will push offshore, and during the day Saturday the region will just be left in a layer of marine air and onshore (easterly) air flow. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side, especially at the coast, where cloudiness will also be the most stubborn. Inland locations have a better chance of seeing clouds break for some sun at times. A weak trough may cause a sneaky shower to visit the NH Seacoast in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. During the day Sunday we’ll get into a southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching trough, and this will pretty much eradicate the marine layer and allow the region to warm up. It’ll also be rather humid Sunday, and with the approaching disturbance from the north, expect thunderstorms to ignite across northern New England during the afternoon, then making their way down, at least in isolated to scattered form, late in the day or evening. Some of these may be on the strong side. Early call on the areas most likely to be impacted are south central and southeastern NH and eastern MA, but cannot rule them out in any area. So while not the best weather for Independence Day Weekend, certainly not the worst either. When we get to early next week, warm and humid weather will be in control Monday and Tuesday, and while weather systems are weak, there will be a couple disturbances nearby and those, with the help of any sea breeze boundaries can help pop some showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours, and of course outflow boundaries from these can help spark additional development.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Late afternoon showers possible central MA, northeastern CT, and RI. Highs 68-75 occurring by late morning, then steady or slowly falling temperatures thereafter. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast, except variable to eventually NE up to 10 MPH in central MA to northeastern CT.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of showers central MA to northwestern RI early. Risk of a brief shower or thunderstorm mainly near Nantucket late night. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy coast with possible drizzle. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny inland. Highs 65-70 coast, 71-76 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A brief shower possible near the NH Seacoast late night. Lows 58-65. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S overnight.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with possible showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW-N up to 10 MPH, gusty near any storms, becoming variable under 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Thursday July 2 2020 Forecast

2:48PM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

Apologies for the very late post today. The situation was unavoidable. I am currently on a mobile device using voice to text for this discussion so I will keep it as short as possible and hopefully it does not misinterpret my voice. Basically there are no changes of any significance to the forecast issued yesterday. After today’s brief taste of summer following a few days of cooler and unsettled weather, a cold front will drop southward through the region tonight and Friday and reintroduce cooler air to the region. The approach and passage of that front may still trigger some isolated showers and thunderstorms from late today through late this evening. While most areas will likely see nothing any place that does see one of these could experience briefly strong wind, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and possible hail. So be on the lookout for this just in case. During the day Friday cloudiness will be dominant, and there will be a cool northeasterly air flow. Areas much further inland will be more exempt from the cooling influence of the ocean as the front will have run out of steam somewhat while moving into that region. It’s presence there combined with more heating will be a focus for a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Friday. this would occur from southwestern New Hampshire through Central Mass into northeastern Connecticut and possibly northern Rhode Island. Areas to the east of here would be much less likely to see showers or storms of any consequence. A weak area of high pressure will try to push everything out of here on Saturday but it’s center may never get far enough south to rid at least the coastline of its cloudiness. Inland locations would have a better shot at breaking out of the clouds and being the warmest. What is left of this high pressure area should bring drier and somewhat warmer weather to the entire region Sunday, But a disturbance coming down from the northwest may trigger a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or during the evening for parts of the region. There is no real push of cooler dryer air behind that disturbance so Monday will probably just turn out to be one of those partly cloudy, seasonably warm, and moderately humid kind of summer days.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly in southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts late day. Highs 78-83 shoreline, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring southwestern NH and central MA to northern RI. Highs 68-73 southern NH and northeastern MA, 73-78 elsewhere, occurring in the morning, then turning cooler during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of showers mainly west of Boston early. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy coast with possible drizzle. Partly sunny inland. Chance of a shower anywhere. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm mainly north of Boston late in the day. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Lows 60-67. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Wednesday July 1 2020 Forecast

8:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

Change the month – change the pattern? Well, not this time, at least not today. Upper level low pressure sits over the region for one more day, with similar weather to the last few days: lots of clouds, a few showers and thunderstorms re-instigated by daytime heating, although coverage today may be down a little bit in the region overall from the last few days. Regardless, outside of flooding issues from Sunday, any rain that any area has gotten has been beneficial to putting a dent in the longer-term deficit. Finally, this low departs tonight and we get a small area of high pressure to provide a nice summer day on Thursday, but don’t blink or you’ll miss it. Down from the north comes a cold front on Friday with a push from high pressure in eastern Canada, and the wind turns northeast to east during Friday and right into Saturday – Independence Day, which I’ve been a little more concerned about weatherwise during the last couple updates. Looks to me like we will be on the cooler side of normal and see clouds dominate. What remains to be seen are the following, but all of these are a potential… 1) Thunderstorms late Thursday night ahead of the cold front. 2) Additional showers and a possible thunderstorm sometime Friday as the front pushes to the south and southwest. 3) Some drizzle or a few showers Saturday mainly from the air flow coming off the ocean. So a few details to work out. By Sunday, we should be back under a small area of high pressure and enjoy another nice day.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Patchy drizzle and isolated showers early to mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms midday through afternoon. Highs 73-80, warmest well inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible early. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-83 shoreline, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring southwestern NH and central MA to northern RI. Highs 68-73 southern NH and northeastern MA, 73-78 elsewhere, occurring in the morning, then turning cooler during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of a shower. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

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