Sunday November 13 2022 Forecast (7:24AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Our temperature step-down continues. The transition to a chilly pattern is ongoing and after we booted the tropical air and remnants of Nicole with a cold front yesterday, it stayed pretty mild behind that initial front while the dew points did drop. A follow-up disturbance and secondary front will cross the region today with some morning and midday rainfall, then another drying trend and even cooler air arriving as we end the day. By the time we see any appreciable clearing, the sun will be about ready to set anyway, so definitely not the brightest of November days today. As we start the new week we will be in a pattern of below normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure dominates, but during Tuesday, the clouds ahead of the next low pressure system will arrive. The next system will be a low pressure area moving northeastward off the Middle Atlantic Coast around Virginia late Tuesday night, which will then track northeastward, passing south and east of New England Wednesday. While this system will not be turning into a powerhouse low, it will be intensifying quickly enough to expand its precipitation shield across our region, making for a wet Wednesday. If precipitation arrives quickly enough in the early morning hours, it could be in the form of snow or at least rain mixed with snow, mainly over interior portions of southern New England. If that happens, the brief duration and relatively warm ground would prevent any accumulation of snow save for a possible brief coating on chilly surfaces (car tops, fallen leaves, etc.), but the system will be mainly a rain-producer. That moves out on Wednesday night, and a renewed shot of cold air arrives Thursday. At this time a little disturbance will be passing by above, and this can help spawn a few rain and snow showers during the day (snow showers most likely inland and higher elevation locations), but not a big deal from that. A gusty wind and chilly air will be more noticeable than any passing rain/snow shower.

TODAY: Cloudy with periods of rain through midday. Partial sun later on, especially I-95 westward. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations especially higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain ends early. Lows 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period with dry weather for most of it, and then a temperature moderation and some unsettled weather by the end of the period from the next low pressure system moving into the Northeast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Guidance inconsistency on recent runs, but overall idea remains similar. While it will be difficult to time systems this far in advance, looking for a potential threat for unsettled weather sometime in the November 24-25 window and possibly again at the very end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal is the current expectation.

Saturday November 12 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

A weekend of unsettled weather ushers in a new weather pattern. If you were up early today, you may have seen a glimpse or two of sunshine in eastern MA and RI with breaks in the clouds between last night’s rainfall and the final chapter of the remains of Nicole coming through this morning. The remnant low, combined with a cold front, associated with a large scale trough moving in from the west, will sweep across the region this morning with another round of showers and downpours, a few of which may result in damaging wind gusts, before it all exits by midday. As for the specifics regarding today’s rain, one swath of moderate to heavy showers sweeps from RI through southeastern MA up to about Boston now (before 9AM), and another swath to the west sweeps east northeastward covering most locations from the I-90 belt northward as we move through the morning, exiting via northeastern MA and the NH Seacoast late in the morning. The second half of the day will feature improvement with breaking clouds, increasing sun, a shifting wind, and drying air replacing the almost summer-like humidity we start the day with. Tonight is dry, and cooler, but the colder air holds off for a bit. Once upon a time I forecast a sunnier day for Sunday, in belief that a follow-up area of energy would ignite rainfall mainly offshore, but it’s going to happen further west, so the forecast for Sunday now shares some similarities with today’s in that we’ll have a wet weather threat in the morning to midday hours before improvement. Finally, the colder, dry air overtakes the region Sunday night and Monday. Tuesday, we’ll remain chilly and dry, but clouds will start to increase ahead of the next low pressure system which will be heading rapidly northeastward and is destined to pass not far south of here on Wednesday. This will be close enough to give us a period of rain, but this rain may start as the first snowflakes of the season for parts of the region, especially away from the coast, depending on how quickly it comes in. Just a reminder that winter, while not here yet, is on its way…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with showers likely during the morning, including a slight chance of thunder. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Highs 65-72 early, then cooling through 60s. Dew point 60+ morning, falling quickly afternoon. Wind S 5-15 mph with gusts 25-35 MPH, isolated stronger gusts possible, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: A few passing clouds evening, then more clouds overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty, becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period and right now it looks like any follow-up low pressure systems to the midweek one will stay to the south, keeping our weather generally dry, other than a rain or snow shower which may visit with any northern jet stream disturbances passing by.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Medium range timing speculation brings me to a forecast of briefly milder weather with a rain shower threat to start this period, a quick return to cool/dry weather behind it, then the possibility of another unsettled weather system about Thanksgiving (Nov 24) but very low confidence on this part of the forecast as guidance has not been consistent with that system’s existence. Dry weather would be favored either way for later in the period with near to below normal temperatures. With this being a huge travel time there will be a lot of scrutiny on the forecast so much refining will be needed as we get closer to it. You know how that goes by now…

Friday November 11 2022 Forecast (7:58AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

First, a thank you to all Veterans who have served and continue to serve our country today! For those who have today off, this ends up as a 3-day weekend. We’ll have dry weather for Veterans Day parades and ceremonies, most of which take place this morning and midday, though clouds are already rapidly moving in ahead of the long-talk-about systems we are about to encounter. We’ll have a combo of the moisture and low pressure area that was Nicole coming from the south, while a broad trough of low pressure approaching from the west pushes a frontal boundary into and across the region by midday Saturday. We’re still looking at two main batches of rainfall, one this evening and one tomorrow morning, but there maybe a few rain showers around at other times as well. While the first area will be a pretty solid area, a lot of it may be far enough west that Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore miss out on the bulk of it. The second area may also be concentrated more north and west so that these same areas get a more brief period of wet weather than other areas do for the second main batch on Saturday. There will be the possibility of some damaging wind gusts with both batches of rain showers, especially in any heavier ones. The second area has the ability to produce rotating showers that can also lead to very brief, weak tornadoes, but this chance is rather remote, just not zero. By Saturday midday and afternoon all o f the unsettled weather will be pulling quickly offshore and we’ll see quite the nice afternoon. After a very mild and muggy overnight tonight and Saturday morning, it will dry out in the afternoon but remain fairly mild, as the cold air behind this system will be lagging the departure of the rain – so despite a gusty breeze it will turn out to be a rather nice afternoon. With the trough axis still to our west and another disturbance to come along, in addition to a secondary cold front that has to cross the region, after holding out I am going to add some rainfall to the Sunday morning and midday forecast. I do not expect this to end up as a rainy day, but somewhat like Saturday, the first part of the day will be unsettled, followed by improvement, but this time the colder air will come in, along with wind, and you will definitely notice. High pressure brings fair weather and below normal temperatures early in the coming week, with some passing fair weather clouds and a gusty breeze Monday, and less wind Tuesday, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to appear in the sky ahead of the next weather system we’ll have to watch…

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Clouding up. A rain shower possible this afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers and a slight chance of thunder, though rain showers may be only scattered Cape Cod. Areas of fog. Lows 59-66. Dew point rising to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, isolated gusts 35-55 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling through the 60s. Dew point 60+ morning, then falling. Wind S 5-15 mph with gusts 25-35 MPH, isolated stronger gusts possible, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: A few passing clouds evening, then more clouds overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty, becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Below normal temperatures will be the rule throughout this time period. Low pressure from the southwest brings the chance of precipitation (possibly starting as snow for some areas but likely ending up as rain) during November 16, followed by the return to generally dry weather, but another system may approach by late in the period with a precipitation chance.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Overall similar pattern. While the below normal temperatures may relax a little we will see most of the time dry with a system somewhere around Thanksgiving (Nov 24) possible for some unsettled weather. Can’t really time these with a lot of confidence so far in advance so just the idea for now that we’ll have to watch for something around that time.

Thursday November 10 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Where there was frost, there’s now dew. A little sign of the current warm-up was apparent early this morning when most areas that were frosted over yesterday at dawn where covered with the liquid version of it – dew – this morning, as temperatures were considerably milder than 24 hours prior. We’re already feeling that warmer air moving in on the back side of high pressure, in contrast to yesterday morning’s calm cold, we have a gentle southerly breeze already blowing as I write this just after sunrise. Basically we’ve a very nice November day ahead today with lots of sun and mild air – many areas into the 60s for high temps. But we do have some unsettled weather looming, although it’s not going to be with us for very long. As we’ve been watching for several days, Nicole has made its way to and into Florida, reaching minimal hurricane status before landfall. This system will turn to the north, weaken, and become absorbed by a frontal boundary and larger scale mid latitude trough moving toward the US East Coast, and that conglomeration will impact our weather Friday into Saturday, but for a limited time. We will see lots more clouds during the day Friday, but most of the wet weather is going to wait until dark to arrive, with an initial batch of widespread showers to cross the region during the evening hours, bringing in relatively very high humidity for this time of year – a tropical feel and no surprise since that air will have made a journey from the tropics. The cold front will then sweep across the region Saturday morning with another batch of showers / downpours, maybe even some thunder, before it all exits to the east and that day ends windy, drier, and much cooler than it began. This sets the stage for a much more typical November chill as we finish the weekend and start next week. Guidance has still toyed with the idea of a storm nearby on Sunday but I still feel that most of this activity will be offshore that day, so I continue to lean dry vs. wet, but breezy and chilly. With high pressure off to the west and north we’ll continue to have breezy and chilly weather with dry conditions Monday as well.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Watching for a potential low pressure system to impact the region with some precipitation (probably rain, can’t rule out inland mix/snow) in the November 16-18 window. Medium range guidance has gotten a little more divergent on the timing and details of that in their runs, so just a very general outlook for now, to refine as time goes along. The take-away is below normal temperatures with an unsettled weather threat somewhere during the period and at least the possibility some see the first flakes of the season. Don’t draw any solid conclusions based on this just yet…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

One more low pressure system should pass by during this period, probably mid period with brief warming but the overall pattern features near to below normal temperatures heading toward Thanksgiving.

Wednesday November 9 2022 Forecast (7:41AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

If you were up early and outside you felt the chill after a few hours of radiational cooling. Once the wind dropped off late last evening and high pressure built right over us, that clear and calm combo allowed the temps to drop off quickly. Urban centers, the coastline, and some areas at higher elevations were not quite as cold as others, especially inland lower elevations, as that is where you tend to see the maximum impact of radiational cooling. Much of interior MA, especially Worcester County, experienced a hard freeze with low temperatures of 24 to 27, while many other locations saw some frost where the temp met the dew point (or “frost point” in this case). But today is going to be a nice day with a decent temperature recovery under abundant sun, albeit now shining at a very low angle and setting well before 5 p.m. since we went back to EST. So goes November! But the nice weather will last through tomorrow too, with a bit more breeze but also a warmer afternoon as that breeze will be southwesterly on the back side of departing high pressure. Meanwhile, the Nicole watch goes on to the south, with the storm now fully tropical. It moves westward through the northern Bahamas today as a strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane, then likely maintains this range of strength up until a shortly-after-midnight landfall on the eastern coast of Florida most likely between West Palm Beach and Port St. Lucie, after which it will move across the central portion of the peninsula from southeast to northwest, turn northward near the western coast of the northern peninsula portion of the state then cross the eastern panhandle. This will take place with the system as a gradually weakening tropical storm. After this a north northeast turn will take the system across Georgia and into then across the Carolinas Friday as it starts to lose its identity and become absorbed by a frontal boundary and trough of low pressure moving toward the US East Coast. For our area, this means that we see clouds moving in on Friday, Veterans Day, but with rain-free weather for parades and ceremonies during the day. It’s Friday night and the first half of Saturday that is our time window for the wet weather, in the form of fairly widespread showers and downpours (maybe some isolated to scattered thunderstorms). Some of these may produce gusty winds, and we’ll already have windy conditions ahead of the front anyway, but I’m not looking for any real issues with damaging wind. We will have to watch for leaf-clogged storm drains though, and general slippery ground where wet leaves cover it. Use caution if traveling by foot or vehicle Friday night into Saturday. The cold front sweeps through from west to east during the morning and midday hours of Saturday then pushes offshore, and the day ends vastly differently than it begins, with clearing, a a gusty shifting wind, and cooler/dry air moving in after a warm/humid start. Sunday’s weather will be far more typical of November, with a mix of sun and clouds, a gusty breeze, and the chill of later autumn. With the axis of upper level troughing still just to our west, we do have to keep an eye out for additional low pressure development near the East Coast that day. Yesterday, some guidance painted Sunday as a much cloudier, wet day, but at this point I believe model error was a big part of this forecast, and that the more offshore and weaker solution of this unsettled weather is the more likely outcome, so I am going with the fair weather forecast for Sunday at this time – but something to watch, just in case.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Watching for a potential low pressure system to impact the region with some precipitation (probably rain, can’t rule out inland mix/snow) in the November 16-17 window, otherwise much of the period will be dry with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A little more up/down on the temperatures, but below normal overall. Mainly dry pattern – one system may bring passing unsettled weather.

Tuesday November 8 2022 Forecast (6:21AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Lots to cover in today’s blog post! While we don’t chat politics here, we can definitely cover the weather for Election Day, and today is that day. We’ve said goodbye to the warm spell, and today will feature a seasonable chill in the air, along with a gusty breeze, but otherwise fair weather with no travel issues to get to the polling place if you are voting in person. Now that we have one week in the books for November, let’s review a little bit. For Boston, the average temperature for the month so far is 61.9, which puts them in first place for the warmest first 7 days of November on record. Spots 2 through 6 are 61.0 in 1994, 59.7 in 1990, 59.6 in 2015, 58.9 in 1975, and 58.8 in 1982. Ironically, ONLY 1975 held onto a warm pattern for the entire month, becoming the warmest November on record for Boston – so far unchallenged. All of the other years in spots 2 through 6 fell out of the top 10 warmest. What will happen this time? My guess is we won’t be solidifying the warmth because a wholesale pattern change is looming. In fact, it’s already starting. Stage one was our cold front sweeping across the region yesterday, although it was still a warm day, we did see the dew point drop and finally in the evening the cool air arrived. This is from a Canadian high pressure area which will build across the region providing seasonably cool air through Wednesday, which will be a day that features lighter wind than today. High pressure will then drift off the south and east by Thursday which will feature fair weather with milder air arriving. Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Nicole continues to get itself organized to the east of the Bahamas and is expected to consolidate somewhat into a more defined tropical system that may attain hurricane status before reaching the coast of Florida early Thursday, first passing through the northern Bahamas Wednesday. The forecast track for Nicole takes it northward later this week, and while it transitions to a “regular” storm system, it will be interacting with a trough and frontal system approaching our area from the west, and is very likely going to give us a good slug of rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Right now, I continue to anticipate dry weather hanging on for the daylight hours of Veterans Day on Friday – good news for outdoor ceremonies and parades that will be taking place. But at night, expect a soaker along with a gusty wind due to the combined effort of those systems. I think things will be moving along quickly enough so that we see only a wet start to Saturday with rapid improvement from west to east as the cold front sweeps through and offshore. We may salvage from about midday on with dry weather, although it will be quite breezy and turning cooler after a very mild beginning to the day – the next stage of our pattern change.

TODAY: Sunshine – just a few passing midday and afternoon clouds possible. Highs 50-57. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, some heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times, and a chance of thunder, along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

New weather pattern – below normal temperatures. Looking for dry weather for much of the time, then a potential low pressure system bringing some precipitation near the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Similar pattern, below normal temperatures, mainly dry weather, threat of one passing system with some precipitation mid to late period based on current projected timing of features. Always remember a forecast out beyond several days has a higher degree of potential error.

Monday November 7 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Summer ends today. Oops. I mean the feel of summer in November ends today. Our warm spell comes to an end after one more day of well above normal temperatures to start the week. A cold front is moving across the region as I write this discussion shortly after sunrise, accompanied by lots of clouds, though a nice sunrise was seen in some eastern areas, including a morning rainbow here at Woods Hill as rain showers approached from the west. This front crosses the region by midday with its briefly unsettled weather, then exits the region, but we’ll have already warmed nicely, and the much cooler air lags the frontal boundary by several hours, so we get the bonus warmth today before we feel the chill set in tonight on a gusty breeze. Canadian high pressure then brings us dry and seasonably chilly weather for Tuesday and Wednesday, a gusty breeze Tuesday with the high center still to the north, and lighter wind Wednesday as the high center comes right over the region. By Thursday and Friday, the high shifts offshore and we see a moderation in temperature, with fair weather through Thursday. But on Friday – Veterans Day – we will see an increase in cloudiness ahead of both an approaching trough from the west and low pressure from the south. The latter is currently Subtropical Storm Nicole to the east of the Bahamas. Nicole is expected to meander generally westward, passing through the northern Bahamas Wednesday and reaching Florida Thursday, before turning northward and moving across the Southeast States and likely off the East Coast, approaching our region by late Friday just as a trough starts to move in from the west. As it stands now, I’m reasonably confident that we’ll see dry weather through the daylight hours of Friday, including for any Veterans Day ceremonies / parades. It is late in the day and especially at night when we’re likely to see the wet weather arrive from these approaching systems…

TODAY: Clouds and rain showers cross the region from west to east morning. Sun returns west to east late morning through afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+ falls through 50s later. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers likely by end-of-day, rain at night. Highs 59-66. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable and gusty at night.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Stormy start to weekend as low pressure passes by November 12, then exits with dry, windy, cool weather for the November 13. Overall theme into next week is dry with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period with passing low pressure, then a return to mostly dry weather and below normal temperatures as we’ll be in a new weather pattern which will have shifted the warmth out and the November chill in.

Sunday November 6 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Welcome back to standard time and sunsets before 5:00 p.m. until early 2023! Two more warm days for us as a high pressure ridge dominates the weather, with our area on the warm side. A few record highs may be set today. You will have to deal with a gusty breeze though if you are outside as the gradient tightens up ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will cross the region during Monday and may produce a few rain showers. It will bring a shift in wind which will lead to a significant cool-down by Tuesday into midweek as Canadian high pressure to the north delivers a new air mass. But dry weather will dominate during this time as well.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds and possibly a passing rain shower in the morning. Sun returns afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW up to 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

We’ll be watching the evolution of a tropical system east of Florida over the next few days. While guidance is iffy on its track, the general idea is that this system will evolve and strengthen, have some impact on Florida, then in one form or another head toward the north at the same time a trough and front approach our region from the west. This combo should give us some kind of rain (and possibly wind) event in the time frame from late November 11 through November 12, which will be fine-tuned this week. Early outlook is that we are dry for Veterans Day ceremonies on Friday, with higher chance of wet weather that night and the first half of Saturday, then a transition to dry, breezy, colder weather for the balance of the November 12-13 weekend. Again, don’t set this in stone – tweaks may be needed. The general idea after that is fair and seasonably chilly weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Overall pattern looks much cooler. We may contend with one precipitation event during this period, but it’s too soon to go into any precise timing and details on that other than speculate mid period looks more likely than earlier or later.

Saturday November 5 2022 Forecast (6:23AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

High pressure hangs on this weekend with fair weather and very mild weather. A couple record high temperature may fall on Sunday. We’ll have a bit more cloudiness around at times this weekend than we’ve had the last few days, but it will remain dry. A cold front will cross the region Monday with little fanfare. It will put an end to the warm spell, but not after we sneak in one more warm day. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a new high pressure area from Canada will provide more dry weather but this time with a seasonable November chill in the air.

TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

High pressure hangs on to start the period with fair weather. A low pressure area from the south and disturbance from the west combine to give a period of unsettled weather in the later November 11 to November 13 time window, but not likely that entire time – details to be fine-tuned. Fair weather returns for the end of the period. Temperatures trend cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Two shots of colder air may occur as we start to see a pattern shift. Watching for a couple precipitation threats as well.

Friday November 4 2022 Forecast (7:36AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

High pressure keeps control of the weather through the weekend and into Monday with fair weather and temperatures running quite a bit above seasonal normals as a trough of low pressure holds all the colder and stormy weather in the western US. With a gradual increase in moisture both in the lower and upper levels we may see some low clouds and fog again tonight / early Saturday, and high cloudiness at times today and Saturday, with an increase in mid level cloudiness Saturday night / Sunday. So as we get to the weekend we won’t hold onto the sunshine quite as much, despite the continued warmth – still though, not bad at all for November! Monday we see a continuation of the well-above-normal temperatures, but the party will be about to end as a cold front starts to move across the region. There won’t be much in the way of any support for any precipitation with this front so just expect some clouds with its passage, allowing the dry spell to extend into early next week. The difference you’ll note by Tuesday though is that we’ve returned to seasonably cool weather courtesy a new area of high pressure from Canada.

TODAY: Sun may become filtered at times by some high cloudiness. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, a few gusts to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except areas of low clouds and fog especially South Coast. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine likely becomes filtered by more high cloudiness. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

High pressure sits over the region during the first couple days of this period with fair weather, chilly mornings and milder afternoons November 9-10. Veterans Day November 11 looks fair for now as high pressure hangs on. Later that day and into the start of the November 12-13 weekend we may see some unsettled weather due to a combo of low pressure / moisture from the south and a disturbance from the west, but this may move quickly enough so that the end of the period sees a return to fair weather again.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Two shots of colder air may occur as we start to see a pattern shift. Precipitation events with air mass changes are expected to be minor.

Thursday November 3 2022 Forecast (7:22AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

A persistent ridge of high pressure will bring fair and very mild weather to our region through the weekend and even to the start of next week as well. Although on Monday we will have a cold front quietly crossing the region, a signal of the end of the warm spell. A couple of record high temperatures may be challenged on Sunday and/or Monday, but for the most part, this will not be a warm stretch that does much damage to the record book.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, a few gusts to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

A new area of high pressure brings dry but seasonably cool weather to the region November 8-9 with a slight moderation to follow for November 10-11. By later November 11 onward we have to watch for impact from low pressure to the south and/or a disturbance from the west with a threat of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

The signs remain in place for a change in the weather pattern – this period starting with some unsettled weather then shifting to a cooler / colder but mainly dry episode as the ridge breaks down and moves out and is replaced by a northwesterly air flow and a broad trough in the jet stream. The evolution of this pattern may be a little slower than some guidance indicates so the cool-down may come in stages versus all at once. Fine-tuning to come.

Wednesday November 2 2022 Forecast (7:25AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

High pressure will control our weather with dry conditions and above normal temperatures through the weekend. The “coolest” weather will be today and Thursday as we have a bit of a northerly air flow initially having transported some Canadian air in, but this air is already modified and without much wind, so you’re not going to feel the typical chill from it. High pressure’s ridge axis sinks to the south so we see an increasing south to southwest air flow here toward and into the weekend, which will be decidedly more breezy than the 3 days leading up to it. We will probably see more in the way of cloudiness by Sunday as well with more moisture in the atmosphere by then.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming in interior low elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

A cold front is expected to move through the region during November 7, bringing only a slight chance of rain showers but a shift in the wind and the arrival of cooler air with high pressure taking control again November 8-9. By later next week, we’ll be watching low pressure to the south of the area, but at this point I’m expecting the high pressure set-up to maintain control with continued dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Continuing to watch for a pattern change during the middle of November. Potential unsettled weather in the November 12-13 window due to either low pressure to the south, a disturbance from the west, or a combination. Mid to late period looks drier but with a shift to near to below normal temperatures at that time.

Tuesday November 1 2022 Forecast (7:00AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

After an October that started cooler than normal then shifted to a mild pattern, and a brilliant foliage season peak for much of the region, we enter November still in a mild pattern with the now ongoing “rustic peak” of foliage. The brilliant reds and oranges are past peak, but many of the trees that are at peak now in our region produce deeper golds and browns, which in my opinion are quite nice to look at as we move into late autumn. The weather in the coming days will be quite nice to be outside looking at such sights, or shifting your focus to cleaning up the leaves that have fallen – I know I gotta do that soon! First though, a little speed bump as we start the month with a disturbance moving through, producing some rain showers this morning. This activity will push out this afternoon though clouds will be somewhat stubborn. It will be mild though. Only a very slight cool down occurs for mid week as high pressure first to our north and west provides a northeasterly air flow briefly before the high settles to the south and we get a southwesterly air flow by later in the week , warming it up quite nicely.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers through midday. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Fair weather and above normal temperatures continue through November 6 to finish off the first weekend of November. Watching for a cold front to move through with little fanfare, maybe a few rain showers, on November 7, still a mild day, but leading to cooler/dry weather for the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

This is the period of time we watch for a potential pattern change. Again, guidance has been inconsistent in details of how this happens, but the general idea right now is that we will start with high pressure holding on for a dry Veterans Day, a potential unsettled November 12-13 weekend as we watch both low pressure to the south and a disturbance from the west, then a shift to cooler/colder air as the trough which had been out to the west moves into the Northeast. Confidence is only moderate at best with this scenario, but this is the idea to work with for now, then adjust as needed. Some guidance has thrown some snow at us in its forecasts for some of these days, but it’s nothing to really lock into yet – just something to monitor as really more an indicator of a shift to colder weather at some point.

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