7:18PM
This round of Indian Summer is just about to end, but not after one more very mild day on Wednesday. A cold front will be moving into New England from the west Thursday, crossing the region from west to east at night. At the same time as this, Tropical Storm Sean will be moving northward in the waters offshore, probably far enough to keep its heaviest rain out over the water, but close enough that it will steal energy and moisture from the approaching cold front. The net result of this is probably less rain that we would have seen with these systems interacting slightly differently or arriving in a more separated fashion. There is, however, a slight chance of one slug of heavier showers along and/or east of Route 95 sometime late Thursday afternoon or early evening as one plume of tropical moisture gets away from Sean and tries to move up in the upper level southerly flow ahead of the cold front. There is about a 50/50 chance that the thrust of this heavier shower activity stays just offshore – something that we need to watch via radar on Thursday.
Behind the cold front, Friday (Veterans Day) will be a blustery, cool day, but should also be dry. I’m removing any chance of showers from the forecast as I think the already moisture starved system will be just sucking in more dry air from the west.
The Weekend: High pressure will be in control, though it will star to slide offshore by Sunday. Dry weather will dominate, along with a good deal of sunshine probably both days. Some medium range computer models try to bring cloudiness in rather quickly on Sunday, but I’m staying optimistic, thinking these clouds will be limited. Either way, expect no rain. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday, but moderate to seasonable. Sunday will turn a little milder.
Earlier, I stated that “this round” of Indian Summer was about to end. We’re not done, as I believe high pressure along and just off the East Coast will strengthen, with next week’s Monday-Tuesday possibly being very similar to this week’s – fair and mild to warm.
Forecast details for the Boston Area…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low ranging from the upper 30s inland valley areas to around 50 in Boston. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 61-66. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 46-51. Wind S under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, especially in the afternoon, greatest chance of heavier showers along and east of Route 95. High 55-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early, heaviest near the coastline. Patchy fog. One more round of scattered showers from west to east a bit later at night. Low 42-47. Wind variable becoming N to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Sun and passing clouds. High 50-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 54.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 63.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.