Minor Snow Event Thursday Night, More Saturday?

9:07PM

Cold high pressure builds across New England tonight then retreats to the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Weak low pressure will move across New England Thursday night and make an attempt to redevelop just offshore. This feature will produce snow, but amounts will be limited due to rapid movement and location of low pressure redevelopment. Another cold high pressure area will move across northern New England and southeastern Canada Friday. The next in a parade of low pressure areas will pass south of New England on Saturday. This low will have more moisture to work with and enough cold air will be in place for snow in most of the Boston area, though warmer air to the south may work into areas south of Boston so mixing and rain may get involved. Otherwise, there is the potential for at least a few inches of snow in much of the region.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the weather for the Patriots playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy with a temperature in the 30s.

Another weather system will arrive Monday, and the early call on this one is for warmer air aloft meaning rain, but lingering cold air at the surface possibly leading to some icing. Plenty of time to worry about this one.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from near 5 inland valleys to near 15 near the coast. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. High 27-32. Wind N around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 2 inches with a few amounts of 3 inches possible. Low 2o-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W increasing 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow with a few to several inches possible, some mix/rain possible especially south of Boston. Low 25. High 35.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 25. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 28. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 35. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

A Train Of Kiddie Cars

4:44PM

A train of small and mostly minor storms will affect the Boston area during the next several days. Once such event is ongoing now, and others will follow late Thursday, Saturday, Monday, and Wednesday of next week, based on current timing. None of these events are expected to bring big snow.

Highlights of the recent past and the coming week+ appeared in the comments section of the last blog entry but i will re-post them here, then follow that up with the Boston area forecast…

– Weather-past: Well our little mini snowstorm is gone. I’m not completely satisfied with my forecast on this one. It snuck up a little more than I wanted it to, and some of the amounts were just a touch higher than I forecast. But no big misses, so I’ll take it. There was some cellular nature to the precipitation, evident on radar. I had 1.7 inch here in Woburn, while in Reading center there was under 1 inch. Move a bit to the east toward Peabody and there was nearly 2 inches. So the variability caused by the cellular nature of the precipitation was apparent even over these short distances.

– Weather-now: Periods of rain through evening and maybe some patchy fog over any remaining snow cover. Once the cold front clears the area later tonight, some icy areas may form, but it should not be a widespread major problem since we’ll see a gusty wind helping to dry the ground out, and no rapid temperature drop.

– Weather-future: Things I’m keeping an eye on as far out as I can see include the following…
* Windy/cold Wednesday
* Rapid-moving and weak system with minor snow event Thursday evening
* Breezy/cold Friday
* Snow/mix Saturday (track of system not clear yet)
* In-between Sunday but cool (not too cold) for Pats game
* Possible cold-air-damning icing situation for Monday???
* Warm-up squelched by high pressure to the north Tuesday
* Storm Wednesday (1-25), probably a cutter (tracks through the eastern Great Lakes), may open the door to very mild stretch to end the month…

TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and patchy fog until midnight, then clearing. Low 30-35. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40  in the morning then cooling through the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 12-17. Wind NW slowing diminishing to 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. High 32-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

THURSDAY NIGHT:  Cloudy. Chance of snow with minor accumulation expected. Low 26-31. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to N late.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 25. High 37.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light snow or rain showers. Patchy drizzle/fog. Low 30. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 29. High 41.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 40.

Tuesday AM Update

7:21AM

Updating for time period.

A little more snow than forecast, by 1/2 inch to 1 inch in some areas. Just over 1.5 here in Woburn. Still a minor event, but given we’ve had pretty much no events,  it’s more significant to some people not used to it.

The remainder is from the previous post…

Milder air has moved in and will result in rain showers today. A strong cold front will cross the region at night, setting us up for a windy and colder Wednesday but with dry weather.

Chilly/dry weather will last into Thursday, and a weak system moving in at night will cause some snow showers. This will get out of here by early Friday with another fair but chilly day.

There are some questions for the weekend, and some potential changes to the thinking on the last post. I’m not quite sure how things are going to shake out yet, but some reliable guidance has shifted the track of Saturday’s disturbance further south, possibly increasing the chance that it will be snow. Sunday’s warm-up may also be delayed behind this system if a north or northeast wind sets up, as is shown on the same rather reliable guidance. But with this still many days away, I’ll just put out a low confidence outlook leaning in the direction of this guidance for now.

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny then cloudy. Rain returns later. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Slight chance of a snow shower late. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 14. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 23. High 35.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 29. High 49.

Minor Events

10:08PM

Warm air returning first above us and then at the surface will cause a burst of snow and snow pellets in some locations late this evening. Accumulations should be under 1 inch in just about all locations as this is a fast-moving area and not very wide.

Once a second area of precipitation arrives overnight, temperatures will be warm enough aloft for rain, and marginal at the surface near 495 so that some icing may take place. Elsewhere, temperatures should be rising above freezing so icing will not be a problem. By dawn, continued warming should take care of any icing that does occur, and expect a mild Tuesday with rain showers around.

A strong cold front will cross the region at night, setting us up for a windy and colder Wednesday but with dry weather.

Chilly/dry weather will last into Thursday, and a weak system moving in at night will cause some snow showers. This will get out of here by early Friday with another fair but chilly day.

There are some questions for the weekend, and some potential changes to the thinking on the last post. I’m not quite sure how things are going to shake out yet, but some reliable guidance has shifted the track of Saturday’s disturbance further south, possibly increasing the chance that it will be snow. Sunday’s warm-up may also be delayed behind this system if a north or northeast wind sets up, as is shown on the same rather reliable guidance. But with this still many days away, I’ll just put out a low confidence outlook leaning in the direction of this guidance for now.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, accumulating less than 1 inch. A period of rain well after midnight, with some icing possible well inland. Temperature rising into the 30s. Wind shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain showers. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Slight chance of a snow shower late. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 14. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 23. High 35.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 29. High 49.

The Week Ahead (Re-post)

11:34PM

A few tweaks otherwise no major change.

More of the same is in the offing: little if any snow, mild temperatures with brief cold shots, storm track mainly to the northwest of New England (with storm systems taking this path around Tuesday, late Thursday, and around Saturday). Enough lingering cold air may be around to produce a little light snow/ice in some areas very early Tuesday, and some snow showers Thursday night. There have been a few hints on some guidance of a brief period of steadier snow Thursday night, but not seeing solid evidence this far out that it will turn into a significant event.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Very cold. Low ranging from -5 in the deeper valleys to around 0 in many suburban areas to 5-10 near the coast and in urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valleys. Wind chill below zero at times.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high cloudiness. High 30-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow or freezing rain possible after midnight, changing to light rain before dawn. Low 25-30 early then warming back into the 30s later. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. High 41-46. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Low 25-30. Wind SW 10-15 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Chance of snow or snow showers at night. Low 11. High 37.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 29. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 32. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 47.

The Week Ahead

5:22PM

More of the same is in the offing: little if any snow, mild temperatures with brief cold shots, storm track mainly to the northwest of New England (with storm systems taking this path around Tuesday, late Thursday, and around Saturday). Enough lingering cold air may be around to produce a little light snow/ice in some areas very early Tuesday, and some snow showers Thursday night. Otherwise, no significant winter precipitation is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Very cold. Low ranging from -5 in the deeper valleys to around 0 in many suburban areas to 5-10 near the coast and in urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valleys. Wind chill below zero at times.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow or freezing rain possible after midnight, changing to light rain before dawn. Low 25-30 early then warming back into the 30s later. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. High 41-46. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Low 25-30. Wind SW 10-15 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Chance of rain or snow showers at night.  Low 11. High 35.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 32. High 39.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 32. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 35.

Sunday AM Update

2:17AM

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 17-22. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low -1 to +4 inland valleys, 5-10 most other areas except 10-15 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind NW under 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or freezing rain early, rain showers later. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 16. High 33.

Saturday PM Update

4:53PM

No major changes to previous blog entry. Just updating for time periods and a few minor tweaks. Second update Sunday morning. Full update Sunday evening.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 7-12. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH. Wind chill around zero, slightly below at times. Patriots/Broncos game-time temperature near 22 at kick off and near 16 by game’s end.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated snow showers. High 17-22. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low -1 to +4 inland valleys, 5-10 most other areas except 10-15 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or freezing rain early, rain showers later. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 16. High 33.

Snow Drought Continues Despite Cold Shots

4:26PM

This is not the first time we’ve seen this weather pattern, so before you believe anybody that says they have never seen anything like this, that’s only true if they were not born or not paying attention the last time. 🙂 While it’s true it is a rare pattern, it is not unheard of. And this will not be the last time we see it.

For some, the pattern is welcomed. For others, not so much. The reasons are obvious and not really needing to be stated here.

This weather pattern will continue to feature a lack of significant snow, but will contain shots of cold air between milder pushes of weather. The main storm track will continue to be through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada, north of New England, due to the lack of blocking (the pattern that caused us the 6-week barrage of snow last winter), and a ridge of high pressure persisting near the southeastern US.

One such storm is passing northwest of us at this time, and the cold air being pulled in behind it is first sweeping in from the southwest, but as a couple troughs move through tonight, winds will shift more to the west and eventually northwest as temperatures start to fall significantly. A few snow showers and even a snow squall may accompany these wind shifts and falling temperatures.

The weekend (long for some because of MLK Jr. Day Monday) will be a cold one. Earlier this week, I though the coldest day would be the holiday itself, but it now appears this will be on Sunday. For the Patriots/Broncos playoff game in Foxboro Saturday night, it will be a very cold night, along with some wind. As stated before, you’ll want to bundle up big time if you are going to this one! Expect the temperature to be near 22 at kick-off and near 16 by the end of the game, hopefully as the Pats leave the field victorious! Winds out of the northwest may gust over 20 MPH, pushing the wind chill down below 10 at times.

As for the previously advertised disturbance bringing a chance of snow showers for Sunday, I’m going to scale it back but not eliminate it, as there are still solid signs of some energy moving through in the upper levels that day. Snow showers or no snow showers, it will be one heck of a chilly day, barely making it above 20. A slight temperature recovery can be expected for MLK Jr. Day on Monday.

The next storm system sails through the Great Lakes late Tuesday & Wednesday, with similar results to the one just gone by, except probably less overall precipitation. This will be fine-tuned as it is closer to occurring.

And before you ask, “graupel” (see below) is basically rounded tiny little snowballs that fall from the sky. Like sleet or ice pellets, except softer. 🙂

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower of rain, graupel, or snow early. Isolated snow showers and a very slight chance of a brief snow squall before midnight. Low 22-27. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 29-34. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 8-13. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH. Wind chill around zero.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated snow showers. High 17-22. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low -1 to +4 inland valleys, 5-10 most other areas except 10-15 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or freezing rain early, rain showers later. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 16. High 33.

Friday Morning Update

3:15AM

No changes to previous for this update. Just using the existing forecast. New discussion and forecast coming up later today. Thanks to all of you for continuing to read and contribute!

FRIDAY: Cloudy into late morning with a band of rain showers, possibly heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms, moving from southwest to northeast across the region. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny midday and afternoon with passing rain and snow showers, greater probability of snow showers with time. High 43-48 in the morning then temperature dropping into the 30s in the afternoon. Wind SE 5-15 MPH early, shifting to SW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH, eventually to W at similar speeds including gusts around 40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and a slight risk of a heavier snow squall before midnight. Low 22-27.  Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, diminishing slowly.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 12-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. High 22-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 29. High 36.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 34.

One-Two Punch Leads To Cold Weekend

1:20AM

Warm when it storms, colder when it doesn’t. That’s the story of the next 7 days.

A broad low pressure trough will cross the Northeast through Friday. Surface reflections of this come in a double punch, one storm rapidly moving through today, with mainly rain (that starts off as some snow mainly well northwest of Boston). Heaviest rain comes in the morning, along with strongest winds, and a risk of minor coastal flooding at high tide. The stormy weather of the morning subsides in the afternoon though it remains a dismal day.

The second main punch will come as a piece of energy whips in ahead of the main trough on Friday morning, and this may contain a squall of rain and even thunder in the morning. This should occur before the cold air gets in, hence rain instead of snow. Behind this area, little waves of energy will cross the region from west to east through Friday evening, each one with colder air to work with, so the threat of snow showers exists. A heavier snow squall cannot be ruled out.

Beyond this activity, blustery and cold weather will take hold Friday night through Saturday. Though the strongest wind will be done with by evening, it will still be brisk and very cold for the NFL playoff game between the Patriots and Broncos. The temperature at kick-off should be in the middle 20s, but fall rapidly into the teens during the game. Bundle up if you are going to this one!

Sunday, though it’s not being advertised loudly, we still have to watch a small upper level disturbance crossing the region. This may kick off some scattered snow showers. Regardless, it will be a very cold day, probably the coldest of the short cold stretch, which will last through Monday (MLK Jr. Day).

By Tuesday, another rapid warm-up is expected as low pressure cuts through the Great Lakes. Its cold front will set off rain showers in the mild air, which may end as snow showers at night or early Wednesday as the next cold shot comes in, but this will be met with drier weather on Wednesday, though likely a strong wind once again.

Forecast…

TODAY: Overcast. Any snow in the 495 belt may leave a slushy coating before turning to rain early. Rain elsewhere,  possibly heavy for a while later in the morning before ending from southwest to northeast by 2PM. Lingering drizzle and areas of fog rest of afternoon. High 42-47.  Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH in the morning, shifting to SE and diminishing to under 10 MPH during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Drizzle ending. Areas of fog. Low 37-42. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy into late morning with a band of rain showers, possibly heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms, moving from southwest to northeast across the region. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny midday and afternoon with passing rain and snow showers, greater probability of snow showers with time. High 43-48 in the morning then temperature dropping into the 30s in the afternoon. Wind SE 5-15 MPH early, shifting to SW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH, eventually to W at similar speeds including gusts around 40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and a slight risk of a heavier snow squall before midnight. Low 22-27.  Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, diminishing slowly.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 12-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. High 22-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 29. High 36.

A Mostly Rainstorm, Then Colder For A While

11:20PM

The weather is trying to remember that it’s wintertime, and making some minor progress. 🙂

A dusting to around 1 inch (isolated areas) of snow fell almost by surprise early Tuesday morning as a disturbance coming out of New York held together well enough and in cold enough air to put down just enough snow to slick up a few roads for the morning commute. All of that melted as it turned milder during the day Tuesday, and it’s  now a memory. We have a quiet but chilly day coming up Wednesday as high pressure builds to the north of New England and a storm system approaches from the southwest, though still far enough away that we will see a fair amount of sun during the day.

The storm, carrying plenty of warm air with it, will bump into some chilly air in place as it arrives in the early hours of Thursday, so this may mean that precipitation starts as snow in some areas, especially north and west of Boston, where minor accumulations of snow are possible. Meaningful snow from this system should be confined to the mountains of New Hampshire and Maine, with some ski areas picking up significant accumulation during Thursday.  Up to a couple inches of slushy accumulation may occur in the higher elevations of Worcester County, but no significant accumulation is expected from around 495 south and east, including Boston. The Thursday storm will be a quick-mover too, so once the warm air is established and it’s raining in the Boston area, the back edge of the steady precipitation will already be approaching and should cross the region from southwest to northeast by early or mid afternoon, with only lingering drizzle after.

As far as the unsettled weather goes, this will not be the end of the story, as this is a dual storm system. The main upper level trough still has to swing through the region Friday into Saturday, and waves of energy will produce additional precipitation in bands, first in the form of rain as we remain in relatively mild air through Friday morning. It may even be unstable enough for thunder to occur in a heavier band of rain showers sometime Friday morning. Once we get to the afternoon, any rain showers will change to snow showers as colder air moves in, but they should be scattered in nature. Only a slight risk of a line of snow showers or squalls exists for Friday evening as one more trough crosses the region from west to east.

Saturday will be a tranquil but colder day. The cold air gets reinforced by another disturbance crossing the region Sunday. This disturbance may result in snow showers, but no organized widespread snow is expected. This should be gone so that MLK Jr. Day is a dry but cold one. But as has been the case for weeks up to this point, the cold will not be sustained and we’ll already be back into mild air by Tuesday of next week as high pressure slides offshore and low pressure heads for the Great Lakes.

A note on the medium range: My opinion is that we will be unable to sustain cold air for more than a couple of days at a time at least during the next 10 to 15 days. The things working against sustained cold weather in the eastern US:  Lack of high pressure ridge in western North America, too much west to east flow and Pacific air. Lack of snow cover over much of south central Canada and the US Lower 48, which allows air masses to modify more quickly than they would if they were traveling over snow-covered ground. Also, the configuration of the upper level pattern over Alaska and the Bering Sea is unfavorable for a colder setup here in this area. A rule of thumb: When Alaska is colder than normal, we usually don’t stay cold for long, if at all. We’re getting the colder shots of air at times now, but they are not staying. Getting snow in this pattern will depend on timing of disturbances. We’ll deal with those as they come along.

Enough babble, now to the detailed forecast for the Boston Area…

OVERNIGHT: Bright moonlight in a clear sky. Low 18-23. Wind N around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 34-39. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Precipitation arriving from southwest to northeast between 3AM and 6AM, rain south of Boston, rain or mix in Boston, mix or snow north and west of Boston at the start. Low 29-34. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix in the 495 belt may accumulate up to a slushy inch before turning to rain. Elsewhere, just rain, which may fall heavily for a brief time late in the morning. Steady rain ends southwest to northeast between 1PM and 3PM, with lingering drizzle and areas of fog after. High ranging from near 40 in the Merrimack Valley to near 50 from Boston south, being reached late in the day. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting more E to SE then diminishing somewhat later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Drizzle ends, areas of fog remain, but clouds may break at times. Temperature steady in the 40s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a band of rain showers and possible thunder moving from southwest to northeast across the region. Intervals of clouds and sun in the afternoon with a couple periods of rain or snow showers. High 45-50 in the morning, then cooling through the 40s into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W. Passing snow showers and possibly a snow squall at night.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 33. Patriots vs. Broncos at night in Foxboro will be played under a mostly clear sky with a temperature falling from the middle 20s at kick-off to the upper 10s by game’s end, with light to moderate N wind.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 27.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 11. High 30.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

Pattern Change?

6:38PM

More like pattern morph… It’s not sudden. It’s not drastic. We’ve seen a few recent cold shots, and another is coming, with a storm between now and then. But this storm, despite bumping into some cold air at its beginning, is going to bring too much warm air with it for any kind of significant snow in the Boston area, though from southern NH northward may be a different story, depending on the storm’s track. Warm land, warm water, and wind off the water will play a big roll in keeping the air just a touch too warm for any significant snow. This will all take place on Thursday, and following that event will be a shot of colder air for the upcoming long weekend.

Forecast Details for Boston Area…

PRE-DAWN: Cloudy with a few areas of light snow possibly dusting the ground. Low 30-35. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clearing. High 41-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 19-24. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high cloudiness at times. High 35-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain, may begin as a period of snow northwest of Boston. Low 32. High 47.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. AM rain showers. PM snow showers. Low 33. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. PM snow showers. Low 17. High 31.

MONDAY – MLK JR. DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 9. High 27.

The Week Ahead

1:41AM

Summary…  Another week in which the overall temperature will be somewhat above normal,  and again no significant snowstorms are in the offing. By the MLK Jr. Day Weekend, we’ll see colder weather and some threat of snow showers. The biggest story of the week will be the Thursday wind/rain event.

Breakdown… Monday: A bubble of high pressure brings plenty of sun and cool weather. Tuesday: Low pressure tracking SE of  Cape Cod throws clouds in for the morning and a weak cold front coming down from the north adds a few more clouds to midday, but any precipitation from the low stays offshore and the front is not likely to produce anything other than a scattered rain or snow shower mainly over hilly areas well N &  W of Boston. Wednesday: Starts sunny, ends cloudy as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Thursday: Stormy, but not snow. Wind and rain as very mild temperatures dominate. Low pressure is expected to track northeastward passing near or over Cape Cod by evening. Friday: Low pressure is beyond the region and gusty west winds and cooler air return, with a chance of a few rain showers as it remains mild (cold air is stuck back to the northwest and waits for a cold front to get through the region before it really starts moving in). Weekend: Colder air moves in, but not severely cold. Snow showers are possible at times, especially Sunday as a weak wave of low pressure moves across the region. MLK Jr. Day on Monday may see the cold air reinforced somewhat.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 36-41. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Low 30-35. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Isolated rain or snow showers possible in the hills far northwest of Boston late afternoon. High 41-46. Wind S around 10 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 26-31. Wind W around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. High 41-46. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain & wind. Low 40. High 50.

FRIDAY: AM rain showers. PM sun/clouds. Morning high 45 then cooling.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 19. High 33.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Low 18. High 32.

MONDAY – MLK JR. DAY: Variably cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 16. High 29.

Sunday AM Update

3:16AM

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind light NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 28. High 44.

THURSDAY: AM rain. PM showers. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Low 18. High 33.