8:19PM

Perseid Meteor Shower update: Though the peak of this shower was last night, tonight can still be decent, provided you are far enough away from light pollution under a clear enough sky. As far as the sky goes, it looks like it will be partly cloudy to mostly clear during the time frame of 10PM to just before dawn, when the meteors are visible. Just some patchy mid level clouds may be moving southwest to northeast across the sky.

The weather for the week upcoming…

Slow progression of weather systems will be the character of the weather during the week. High pressure builds across the region Monday with a drier but very warm summer day, then builds offshore Tuesday allowing the humidity to begin increasing as it stays warm. Wednesday, a cold front will amble its way west to east across the forecast area, interacting with warmth and humidity in place, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday will basically be a repeat of the weather expected Monday & Tuesday. Saturday looks unsettled as the next front moves through with showers and storms. Hopefully, this system keeps on moving so that activity ends that night and Sunday is nice. Going with this scenario for now.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 63-68. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-88 except 77-82 parts of Cape Cod / Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 50s inland valleys to middle 60s urban centers. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod / Islands, 81-86 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 85.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 87.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 79.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 83.

8:52AM

A very slow-moving front interacting with tropical air will keep episodes of tropical showers going through Sunday evening. It won’t rain all the time in all of the area, but most areas will see several periods of wet weather.

It would take a miracle to get clear enough sky sometime overnight Saturday night & early Sunday to view any Perseid Meteors, but there is a better chance the area clears up later Sunday night to early Monday morning. This night will not produce as many meteors as the night before, but some would still be viewable. If we do get lucky enough to get some clear sky, Perseid meteors peak in the pre-dawn hours, after midnight. Streaks are often bright but usually thin and very fast-moving. The meteors appear to come from high in the northeastern sky.

Looking ahead to the work week, high pressure should dominate the beginning and end of the week with a frontal system in the middle causing some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with episodes of showers and thunderstorms, some producing heavy downpours. Patchy fog especially Saturday night. Lows middle 60s to near 70. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Humid. Winds variable but mostly S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W later Sunday.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 85.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 82.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

10:28PM

Upper level low pressure will drop into the Great Lakes and spin around for a few days before lifting out into Canada late in the weekend. High pressure will hold strong in the western Atlantic. A cold front will settle across southern New England Friday then try to come back as a warm front Saturday, with a final front arriving from the west Saturday night into Sunday. The movement of this final front will determine Sunday’s weather, but suffice it to say that the next 3 days will feature unsettled weather with episodes of showers and thunderstorms and tropical humidity. The question is how much dry air from the west arrives during Sunday.

Perseid Meteor Shower: Meteors are visible, weather-permitting, during the overnight hours this weekend, with Saturday night being the peak and Sunday night a close second. The problem may be cloud cover. If we get lucky, some clear sky areas will work in at just the right time, so that some of the meteors will be visible. The best time to view, if the sky cooperates, will be between midnight and dawn Saturday night/Sunday morning and again Sunday night/Monday morning.  Let’s hope for a few breaks.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy but partly cloudy episodes possible. Occasional showers and thunderstorms, not raining all the time. Wettest period is likely Friday night into early Saturday morning. Tropical humidity. Highs 76-83. Lows 63-68. Winds S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Additional showers and thunderstorms, ending west to east. Still humid. Highs 80-85. Wind S-SW 10-15 MPH

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers. Low 64. High 85.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 63. High 81.

9:16PM

Nothing out of the ordinary to report in the weather department in southern New England. A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Thursday, then move through the region by late Friday only to turn around and head back to the north as a warm front during Saturday. Finally another cold front from the west will sweep it all away by the end of the weekend. Positioning and timing of fronts will determine the weather at any given time and place during this period. Summarizing, most thunderstorm activity associated with this conglomeration of fronts will take place well north and west of Boston Thursday, still mostly north and west of Boston but a little closer to the city by later Friday, pushing south and east at night. A more general rain area may move across the region as the front returns northward early Saturday, finally followed by another storm threat west to east later Saturday. Leaning optimistic that everything gets out of here Saturday night and Sunday ends up as a rain-free day in the forecast area.

Additional typical August weather is on tap for the first half of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: High clouds depart leaving the sky clear. A few fog patches forming overnight. Humid. Lows 63-68. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms mainly well north and west of Boston (interior southern NH and north central MA). Humid. Highs 85-90. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Muggy. Lows 67-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms mostly Boston north and west in the afternoon, probably pushing south and east late day and evening. Humid. Highs 83-88. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with morning rain or showers ending southwest to northeast. Partly sunny with afternoon thunderstorms developing west to east. Low 66. High 82.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 85.

7:21AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH. Full discussion later today.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from upper 70s South Coast to middle 80s inland areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-65, few upper 50s inland valleys. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 86.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 79.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 63. High 77.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 82.

2:46AM

Updated just to remove out-dated discussion and time periods and leave the forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending over far southeastern areas in the morning. Increasing sunshine otherwise. Lowering humidity. Highs 80-85. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Cooler and drier. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Dry morning, bit more humid later. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

4:47PM

Well I tried earlier, with confidence, to say that eastern MA and nearby areas would be largely storm-free this afternoon, but some pop up downpours have already proven this to be an incorrect postulation of events. And as of 4:30PM, a broken line of thunderstorms approaching Route 495 from the west is further proving my solution of today’s weather quite inaccurate.

Short term: Thunderstorms will cross much of eastern MA, southern NH, and parts of RI, between 4:30PM and 6:30PM. Although many of the storms will be weakening, some may produce gusty winds and very heavy rain

Remainder of the week ahead discussion, unchanged from previous post:

A cold front will cross the region from west to east during the first half of Monday, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. I’m not expecting severe storms as this front will be arriving at the time furthest away from maximum heating, and because of somewhat more stable air ahead of it than what would be seen if the wind were more from the southwest or west. Either way, some of the showers and storms may contain gusty winds and downpours with brief flash flooding possible. Hopefully most of this will take place before Monday morning commute time and impact will be minimal.

Once the front clears the region, a quick shot of cooler and drier air will move in for the end of the day Monday through Tuesday morning. The humidity may actually start to increase again later Tuesday but should not be too noticeable. This slow process of becoming more humid will continue Wednesday into Thursday. Wednesday looks like a fair weather day as weak high pressure remains in control. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend, things are a little less certain. A trough of low pressure is expected to drop into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. The question is, does it sit there for a while, move eastward right through the Northeast, or something in between? Obviously many people have outdoor plans, and also the nights of the 11th and 12th are important for star gazers as it will be time for the Perseid Meteor Shower. It’s too far away to start talking about detailed sky conditions. I hold out hope that if the trough holds back in the Great Lakes and high pressure off the East Coast is strong enough, we may see a pure tropical flow from the south, and though this often is a pattern of scattered showers and storms, we also see periods of clearer, haze-free sky as the air is coming from the tropics versus the more polluted Midwest. Plenty of time to figure out what will happen next weekend.

_______________________________________________________

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH EVENING: Showers and thunderstorms crossing the region west to east, weakening with time, but still locally heavy downpours and gusty winds occurring in some locations. Temperatures cooling through the 80s into the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Another band of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west mainly after midnight. Lows around 70. Very humid. Wind S 10-15 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending west to east morning. Clearing west to east midday and afternoon. Humid morning, less humid in the afternoon. Highs 80-85. Wind S shifting to W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Cooler and drier. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Dry morning, bit more humid later. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

11:39AM

With today’s (Sunday’s) weather pretty much set to be warm, muggy, but storm-free, it’s time to look ahead. Regarding today, however, we’ve seen much low cloudiness during the morning but breaks with sun coming out and going back in. As the sun heats the ground we’ve started to see these clouds make a transition into more cumulus type (puffy) clouds versus the stratus (flatter and less defined) that we had earlier across much of the RI, eastern MA, and southern NH area. A moderate breeze coming out of the south today is going to keep the atmosphere a little more stable than yesterday, and with the absence of a defined sea breeze boundary, getting showers and thunderstorms to form during the day today will be more difficult. The chance is not 0%, but it is low enough in my mind to leave them out of the forecast. If something does pop up during the day, I’ll update through comments underneath this post as well as on the WHW Facebook page.

Looking ahead…

A cold front will cross the region from west to east during the first half of Monday, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. I’m not expecting severe storms as this front will be arriving at the time furthest away from maximum heating, and because of somewhat more stable air ahead of it than what would be seen if the wind were more from the southwest or west. Either way, some of the showers and storms may contain gusty winds and downpours with brief flash flooding possible. Hopefully most of this will take place before Monday morning commute time and impact will be minimal.

Once the front clears the region, a quick shot of cooler and drier air will move in for the end of the day Monday through Tuesday morning. The humidity may actually start to increase again later Tuesday but should not be too noticeable. This slow process of becoming more humid will continue Wednesday into Thursday. Wednesday looks like a fair weather day as weak high pressure remains in control. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend, things are a little less certain. A trough of low pressure is expected to drop into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. The question is, does it sit there for a while, move eastward right through the Northeast, or something in between? Obviously many people have outdoor plans, and also the nights of the 11th and 12th are important for star gazers as it will be time for the Perseid Meteor Shower. It’s too far away to start talking about detailed sky conditions. I hold out hope that if the trough holds back in the Great Lakes and high pressure off the East Coast is strong enough, we may see a pure tropical flow from the south, and though this often is a pattern of scattered showers and storms, we also see periods of clearer, haze-free sky as the air is coming from the tropics versus the more polluted Midwest. Plenty of time to figure out what will happen next weekend.

_______________________________________________________

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 78-89, coolest around the Islands and immediate south-facing coastal areas, warmest interior MA and southern NH away from the Seacoast. Wind S 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds arriving west to east by midnight, some lower clouds from the south over Cape Cod and the Islands. Showers and thunderstorms arriving west to east after midnight. Any storms may produce gusty winds and heavy rain with brief flash flooding. Very humid. Lows around 70. Wind S 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending west to east morning. Clearing west to east midday and afternoon. Humid morning, less humid in the afternoon. Highs 80-85. Wind S shifting to W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Cooler and drier. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Dry morning, bit more humid later. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

1:14PM

Sea breeze today. Storms can fire up near the boundary of this sea breeze (mainly south, west, and northwest of Boston) and further west in the heat (air mass storms). Any storms that form today will likely be non-severe but can produce flash flooding where they occur, as they will be slow-moving storms that rain themselves out nearly in place at times. Most areas will see little or nothing.

Tonight, any activity quiets down with no solar heating to be had. The air mass will be warm and muggy.

Sunday will be a dry day. No storms are likely to form during the day save for a slight risk of a pop up isolated storm over the hilly terrain. The main action will approach late at night from the west, with a cold front. The timing of this front, late Sunday night and early Monday, will probably eliminate the threat of severe weather and may significantly limit thunderstorms overall. We will probably see a nasty squall line coming out of NY State late Sunday evening that will then begin to weaken as it makes the trip across New England. I’ll keep an eye on any activity, in case.

Once we get that front by on Monday, it looks like a couple of warm and more comfortable August days heading into the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most likely in RI, interior MA, and southwestern NH. Any storms may produce torrential rain and local flash flooding. Highs from near 80 coast to near 90 inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Muggy. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind light S.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 85-90 except upper 70s to lower 80s south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Low 67. High 85.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 82.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 78.

10:21PM

Typical August pattern.

The players during the next several days: High pressure off the Atlantic Coast, a cold front that slides down from the NW Friday and early Saturday then returns northward as a warm front late Saturday into Sunday, another cold front that moves in from the west Sunday night into Monday.

The play (a.k.a. the forecast) for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear, bright moon. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any fog dissipating early. Sunshine then developing clouds. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon may become more widespread along and south of the Mass Pike in the evening. Humid. Highs from near 80 South Coast to near 90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Any showers and storms to the south ending, clouds may linger there. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind variable 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly RI and southern MA. Slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms elsewhere. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few isolated showers. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers. A band of heavier showers/storms may approach from the west later in the day or at night. Highs in the 80s. Very humid. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers/thunderstorms. Low 67. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66.  High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

2:56PM

Hi all!

Under the weather yesterday and part of today. Feeling better. Going to update quickly now and more fully later.

Will review all comments from previous post in a while, and if anybody has any comments awaiting moderation I will get to those this evening. Thanks for your patience!

Eastern MA, southern NH, RI forecast…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with local downpours. Most areas rain-free. Temperatures 70s immediate coast to 80s elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 85-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 66. High 88.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 81.