7:23AM

A pattern of dry weather and above normal temperatures takes over today and lasts pretty much for a week. Weakening disturbances may produce more clouds as they try to crash into the dominating high pressure ridge once we get to late Friday and beyond, but so far indications are these will be mostly failures.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH THURSDAY: Sunny days & clear nights. Daytime highs 80-85, some 70s coastal areas. Overnight lows 55-63. Winds mainly S to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

1:57AM

High pressure will dominate the weather through the week, into the weekend. Does it last all the way through the weekend? That will depend on the eastward advancement of a trough to the west. Right now, feeling optimistic that shower activity will be held back. The feel of Fall will continue through early Wednesday, followed by a significant warm up from mid into late week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, & RI…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH diminishing to under 10 MPH with sea breezes in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-55, coolest inland valleys, mildest urban centers. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 84.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 59. High 75.

1:14AM

Upper level low pressure exits New England to the east today and high pressure ridging dominates much of this coming week, both at the surface and aloft. The coolest part of the week will be through early Wednesday as the region will be on the east side of high pressure. As the upper ridge crests over the area and surface high pressure slips to the south and east from mid to late week, the air will warm up. A weak front may shift winds back to north or east toward the weekend at which time it may cool down slightly. It looks like the next weather system of any significance will hold off until after the weekend, making 7 dry days very possible for much of the forecast area (eastern MA, RI, southern NH)…

TODAY: Mixed sun and clouds. Highs 70-75. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 45-55, coolest valleys, mildest urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-55, coolest valleys, mildest urban centers. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 78.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 74.

11:44AM

The last of the rain is exiting Cape Cod now, with the only other threat of any wet weather being in the form of an isolated shower over inland areas later this afternoon and maybe toward the coastal plain around sunset as some instability clouds pop up where sun is out longest well northwest of Boston, then drift southeastward before dissipating.

The upcoming week looks dry, at least through the work week and likely into if not all the way through next weekend (we’ll watch a frontal system approaching later in the weekend based on current timing). This forecast will cover through Saturday but I will add Sunday on later today when The Week Ahead is posted.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Lingering very light rain exits Outer Cape Cod first thing, clouds hang on in much of the region as a clearing line slowly approaches from the west, but sun coming out well northwest of Boston will trigger developing cumulus clouds and possibly a few pop up showers. Most areas rain free. Drier and cooler. Highs 70-77, coolest north and east facing coastal areas. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower eastern areas early then clearing finally. Low from the upper 40s inland cool spots to middle 50s urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the middle 40s inland valleys to 50-55 coastal and urban areas. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 83.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

3:35PM

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING: Tropical air mass in place and a disturbance passing by leads to isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. A few downpours possible. The severe weather has been to the west of the forecast area and it should remain that way during this time.

NIGHT: Main squall line crosses the region from west to east between 9PM and 1AM as the cold front moves into the region, but I still feel this will be on a weakening trend and though there could be localized wind damage, heavy rain, and some lightning, most areas will likely escape severe weather (damaging winds and large hail). Watch for brief flash flooding in heavier downpours.

SUNDAY: Everything pushes offshore to the east with the cold front. Improving weather!

NEXT WEEK: Fantastic September weather, cool start, warm finish!

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH EVENING: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Brief downpours possible. Most areas will not be raining at any given time. Very humid. Temperatures falling through the 70s. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A line of showers and thunderstorms moving west to east across the region through about 1AM, may produce torrential rain and strong wind for a brief time. Very humid. Lows 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.

SUNDAY: One more batch of showers may cross Cape Cod/Islands and extreme eastern MA in the morning otherwise partly sunny. Lowering humidity. Highs 73-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH early then diminishing, shifting to N late.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Mostly clear to partly cloudy throughout the period. Overnight average lows 50 Monday, 48 Tuesday -Wednesday, lower 50s Thursday-Friday. Daytime average highs 73 Monday, 71 Tuesday, 78 Wednesday, 81 Thursday, 83 Friday.

1:06AM

The weather during the next several days will behave a lot like it did in the text books I read as a young weather enthusiast (a.k.a. weather nut).

Examples…

Friday: Light wind and low level moisture = low clouds & patchy fog to start the day, then sun shining down from above burns the clouds off and sun dominates the afternoon, with some cumulus clouds popping up and only a slight chance of a couple of those clouds building into showers due to daytime heating.

Saturday: Warm southwest winds and humid with a mix of sun and clouds ahead of a cold front.

Saturday night: A band of showers and thunderstorms advances west to east as the leading edge of the cooler air (the front) pushes into the warm and humid air. However, activity will probably be weaker than it would be during the day, due to the lack of daytime heating from the sun.

Sunday: The cold front pushes through the region early in the day then off the coast. Any wet weather with it ends and the sky starts to clear from west to east. The humidity will be pushed away and cooler and drier air will start to move in behind the front.

Early next week: Refreshing air, low dew points, cool mornings as high pressure builds in and we enjoy some Canadian air on the eastern side of the high pressure area.

Mid next week: Warm weather returns as high pressure pushes to the south and east and the return flow from the south and west brings a taste of summer back to the region.

Hurricane Leslie: Tracks northward, passing east of Bermuda then accelerating through the waters east of New England by late in the weekend. Large ocean swells, rough surf, and rip currents will take place along the coast.

What form does this text book weather take in the forecast details for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH? Read on…

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog dissipating during the morning through midday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with only a slight chance of isolated showers afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s coastal areas to 80-85 inland. Wind light variable in the morning, SW 5-15 MPH in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind SW to S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Highs 80-85. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up from west to east. A band of showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region between midnight and dawn. Remaining humid. Lows 62-67. Wind SW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers ending west to east in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. Lowering humidity. Highs 72-77. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 79.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 81.

1:59AM

With one front through the region and the sorta-kinda remains of Isaac now gone, we look to the passage of a couple more fronts and watch the track of Hurricane Leslie through the coming weekend.

The front that went through on Wednesday shifted the wind to north and east and brought slightly cooler and slightly drier air in (though not bone dry). This will be noticeable during the day today as the dewpoints will have come down from the tropical levels they were at on Wednesday. The front itself will basically wash out and we’ll see a southerly air flow return by tonight through early Friday, but another weak front will pass through by midday on Friday. The timing of this front will limit the shower threat to just a slight chance late Friday morning or midday. The cycle will repeat again going into the start of the weekend, but this time a stronger cold front will approach later on Saturday. If all goes well, the timing of this front will be overnight Saturday night to early Sunday morning, with most wet weather occurring during the late night and early morning hours. This would allow most of Saturday to be rain-free but rather warm and becoming humid. Provided the front moves along, Sunday would show a drying trend once any showers/storms moved out.

Leslie’s track is still expected to take it close to Bermuda, with the center most likely passing just to the east. This would be a better scenario than if the center passed over or just west of the island. Whatever the exact track, the closest pass to Bermuda will take place Saturday night and early Sunday morning. After this acceleration will take place, and a landfall is possible by Monday night or Tuesday in Newfoundland, Canada, which could see damaging wind and flooding rain.

Also of note in the tropics is Hurricane Michael, which has encountered conditions favorable for strengthening, has become stronger and more organized, and will be a major hurricane out over the open waters of the Atlantic, no threat to land.

Back here at home, looking ahead to early next week, it looks very nice.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs from the lower 70s coastal areas to around 80 inland. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH but sea breezes at most coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm through early afternoon, then mostly sunny. High 77-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms moving in west to east late at night. Low 61. High 82.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms ending west to east in the morning. Low 64. High 77.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 71.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 80.

2:55AM

Here & There: That will be the overall theme of showers the remainder of this week. Though more widespread activity will take place into this afternoon as a good slug of tropical moisture traverses the region along a frontal boundary. Less shower threat but still some spotty activity may occur with one additional front Thursday and a warming air mass on Friday, and then some additional showers and storms can develop this coming weekend with yet another disturbance moving in.

There & Here: Way out there, i.e., the Atlantic, will be Leslie, strengthening to a hurricane, threatening Bermuda, then moving more to the north passing several hundred miles east of New England by the beginning of next week. But she will send big ocean swells and rough surf here, i.e., to the New England Coast, pretty much from today through the first of next week.  Watch for some minor beach erosion and flooding in areas prone to it. Rip currents will also increase at some beaches, so be aware of that if you plan to visit a beach.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours, most numerous through early afternoon then becoming more scattered. Tropical humidity. Highs in the 70s but may reach 80 in a few locations. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Still humid. Lows 62-67. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid again. Highs 78-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 63. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 80.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 61. High 77.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Low 60. High 75.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 72.

1:57AM

A frontal boundary draped across southern New England and a couple areas of low pressure waves  moving along it will trigger episodes of showers and a few thunderstorms through Wednesday. Some of this moisture was once associated with Hurricane Isaac, but as stated before, Isaac itself is no longer an identifiable entity.  It looks like 1 to 2 inches of rain and even locally heavier may tape place in some areas through Wednesday, with the focus for the heaviest amounts probably in northern Middlesex and Essex Counties of MA and across southern NH. A few heavy amounts to the south cannot be ruled out. A final cold front will come along later Thursday and may set off an additional shower or storm but this front looks like it may not produce much. High pressure will bring drier but still warm and fair weather on Friday. A slight cool-down will take place over the weekend. Leslie, forecast to be a hurricane, will be watched offshore but for now it appears that the only threat from this system will be large waves and ocean swells with increasing threat for rip currents on the beaches by later in the weekend.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 69-74. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Heaviest rain north and west of Boston but some downpours may occur in any area. Very humid. Lows 64-69. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours. Heaviest activity may start out north and west of Boston but may finally push south and east during the day before activity tapers off somewhat toward evening. Very humid. Highs in the 70s but may approach 80 in any areas that sun pops out. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms late. Low 66. High 82.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 77.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 75.

1:43AM

For some of us, it’s still the weekend on this Labor Day Monday. But for continuity, this post will do its typical look at the 7 day period Monday through Sunday.

What happens when the temperature and the dewpoint meet? The air saturates, and did that happen quickly in much of northeastern and east central MA during the first hour of the new day. We went from a mostly clear sky to heavy fog in a matter of moments. As the sun rises and goes to work on the fog bank where it is (not everywhere will fog in but many places will during the pre-dawn hours), the fog will thin and dissipate with sun taking over. A great day is in store!

Then begins a 3-day unsettled period Tuesday through Thursday. The heaviest and most widespread rainfall is now expected to take place Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Getting the timing right on these is always a fun task. Anyway, some locations may see 1 to 2 inches of rain and even heavier amounts. The most likely area for the heaviest amounts as it stands now will be southern NH, but much of MA and even parts of RI can get in on the heavier action as well. A final cold front will pass through on Thursday, but it is unclear how much shower and thunderstorm activity will be associated with this. One thing is for sure, tropical humidity is going to be locked in for the 3-day period.

Friday and at least the start of next weekend look much better as high pressure moves in. However, Hurricane Leslie will be offshore in the Atlantic and sending large ocean swells to the New England Coast. Rip current threats will be high by the end of next week, and some areas prone to coastal flooding may see some, due to heavier surf and large swells. The storm itself will stay far offshore and never reach New England.

Eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog into mid morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs ranging from near 70 immediate coast to near 80 well inland. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 61-66. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 72-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Muggy. Lows 67-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the morning. Tropical. Highs 77-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 77.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 76.

11:22AM

Upper level disturbance produces more clouds and a remote shower threat today but still not a bad day! (For my computer-model-following readers, this disturbance was seen several days in advance by the European Model and eventually picked up by the GFS. The NAM showed it in the short range. Again though, a win for the Euro, seeing it first.)

Labor Day looks great!

Moisture spreads into the region in advance of a frontal system Tuesday. Yes some of this moisture was once Isaac but one wouldn’t know it was the remains of a hurricane as it will just produce typical showers and possible thunderstorms, though some may be heavy.

Going to reduce the shower threat a little for Wednesday as we will be between the first slug of moisture and another cold front to the west. But it may turn out quite warm and muggy.

Shower and thunderstorm threat Thursday with a cold front, but the magnitude of this threat I am not sure of yet…

Friday and next weekend look just fine at this stage!

Tropical Storm Leslie, soon to be a hurricane, remains over water for the next few days. Some of the predicted forecast tracks take it toward Bermuda and this area should monitor the storm. I still feel the center stays east of Bermuda, though a side-swiping may take place. Too early to really be certain of this. The East Coast of the US will likely see large ocean swells from the hurricane by next weekend. Something to keep in mind if you have plans to make a late season visit to a beach.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs upper 60s immediate shore to middle 70s inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 coast to 80 well inland. Wind SE-S 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms especially afternoon and night. Low 62. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially morning. Low 65. High 83.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially afternoon. Low 62. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 78.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 74.

10:12AM

I should have made a note that the Euro model was picking up on a minor upper level disturbance that may add some clouds and a remote chance of a few showers on Sunday. This will certainly not ruin what will be a great Labor Day Weekend, however! Don’t cancel any plans you have.

Isaac’s remains, if they are even identifiable as such, will pass through in pieces after the weekend is done. The timing for this moisture is likely Tuesday into Wednesday. This represents a slight change in that the moisture will be a little slower in arriving than I indicated on my previous forecast. It is also evident that the “possible” cool/dry shot of air for the middle of next week is no longer in the cards, and that it will probably be somewhat muggy and unsettled through Thursday as trailing trough comes along behind the Isaac moisture. Details far from being known for all of this, you’ll just see a more unsettled end to the forecast than you did on the previous one. In the mean time, enjoy a great weekend!

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, may touch 80 some inland areas. Wind N 10-20 MPH through midday shifting to E and diminishing slightly to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in a few areas. Lows 55-60. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers especially far west and north of Boston. Highs in the 70s, around 80 some areas interior northern MA and southern NH. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs from the lower 70s immediate coast to lower 80s inland. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 78.