4:26PM

70+ for the first time in many areas Tuesday! But it came along with a gusty wind. Still, quite enjoyable. And I hope you did enjoy it, because that short-lived party is about to end. A front will sink southward across the region tonight as another disturbance passes by. This front will then spend a few days south of the region with additional disturbances, keeping it cloudy, much cooler, and occasionally wet. A stronger low pressure system passing just southeast of New England Friday night may even have enough cold air associated with it for mix/snow in parts of the region (timing will be key). Looking ahead to the weekend, looks dry and chilly Saturday, not as cool Sunday, and for those extending the weekend to Patriots Day (Monday), it looks fair and mild. Have to keep a close eye on things heading into the middle of next week as it appears additional back door cold fronts and high pressure to the north may put a lid on any possibility of a lasting warm-up.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Rain showers arriving west to east well after midnight. Lows around 50. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers end west to east in the morning. Highs 55-60 in the morning then cooling back through the 50s to the upper and middle 40s by late in the day.  Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with episodes of rain. Lows 40-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of sprinkles of rain or drizzle. Highs 45-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain south, rain/sleet/snow north. Low 32. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 53.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 56.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 40. High 51.

5:54PM

The only thing normal about April is that it is seldom ever “normal”, that is, on any given day, the temperatures are usually not all that close to the long term averages. It is much variability that leads to these averages, and this will be the case during the next 7 days.

After a weekend that featured a gusty northwesterly breeze and chilly air on Saturday and a continued gusty breeze Sunday, this time from the south, and slightly milder air, a cold front will swing through during the late night hours tonight with nothing more than a few passing rain showers. This will set the stage for a bright day Monday but with not that much cold air behind the cold front, it will be on the mild side. This front will push back to the north Monday night into Tuesday morning when clouds and another shower threat occurs. Can’t rule out thunder as this warm front pushes through. Timing is perfect that this front gets far enough north to open the gates to much warmer air for Tuesday midday and afternoon. Many areas (except where winds cross cool water along the irregular coastline) will see their first day near or above 70. It is not out of the question that with enough sunshine, a few inland locations could make a run at 80 before the afternoon is out. Though this would be a much above normal temperature, it is not that unusual to get a day or 2 like this in the month of April. Enjoy that brief warmth, because the same front will oscillate southward again Wednesday and then probably set up shop just south of New England for the second half of the work week, leading to a cooling trend and more unsettled weather. By next weekend, a stronger low pressure wave that comes through late Friday should be exiting by Saturday. With some uncertainty in timing, the early call on next weekend is dry weather, windy/chilly Saturday, less wind/milder Sunday. Of course, during Spring, changes can happen quickly, so remember to check back daily for updates.

For now, here’s my best shot at the week ahead weather for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds until well after midnight along with a few passing rain showers. Clearing out west to east by dawn. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW shifting to W, 15-25 MPH gusting to 35 MPH early, diminishing later.

MONDAY: Sunshine dominates but clouds appear in the western sky by the end of the day. Highs break 60 in most areas and reach 65 in some, some 50s Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Perhaps a rain shower in some locations overnight. Lows upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds dominate the morning along with the threat of a few showers and even possibly a thunderstorm. Sunshine prevails midday and afternoon. Highs around 70 most areas, may shoot well into the 70s some interior areas but hold in the 60s or even upper 50s where wind comes off water (especially South Coast &  Cape Cod/Islands). Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, W 10-20 MPH afternoon.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. AM shower. Low 49. High 56.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 39. High 49.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. PM rain, may end as mix/snow night. Low 36. High 44.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny & windy. Low 33. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 64.

8:26AM

This is really only a quick update again, but there is some good news in it. Timing is such that we may make it to 70 in parts of the region on Tuesday before cool air returns. The warmer air responsible for the shot at 70+ is moving in today and will cause some cloudiness as it comes in via a weak warm front. This will be followed by a weak cold front that may bring a rain shower tonight but never really clears the region before heading back by late Monday night or early Tuesday to the north allowing a second, stronger warm push. A stronger cold front will come through at midweek and will start a falling temperature trend and set up the possibility of unsettled weather later in the week upcoming. More on this later in The Week Ahead post this evening.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-65 except 50s south-facing shores. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 45-50. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind W to variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 70, cooler some coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Low 50. High 60.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 40. High 50.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Early rain/mix. Low 33. High 48.

7:29PM

This is a quick update on the previous blog as there are no big changes, just a few timing tweaks.

Cold front going through southern New England now (Friday evening), cold air set to rush in during the night and linger into Saturday. Warm front traverses the region early Sunday, leading mild air back into the region. Another cold front will settle across the region from north to south Monday and set up a situation where a front will oscillate back and forth around the area for much of next week, making temperature forecasts very difficult. Eventually it may turn more unsettled later next week as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 Boston and coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH, sending wind chill to the upper teens late.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, light variable for a while, then S 5-10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 60-65 but remaining in the 50s south-facing coastal areas. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 60 then turning much cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 55 coast to 65 far inland.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 45 coast to 55 inland.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 36. High 48 coast to 54 inland.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Low 39. High 48.

3:55PM

This 7 day forecast will be fairly low confidence because there is a whole lot of potential for big differences resulting from only slight shifts in positioning of weather systems.

This is how I think it will break down (many updates to follow as we progress):

Tonight… High pressure slips south of the region. Dry and chilly but not as cold as the last few nights.

Friday… Low pressure tracks east northeastward, south of New England, throwing some clouds across the region and perhaps a period of rain across RI and southeastern MA in the morning. This low pressure area will be moving more quickly that I had originally thought, so the timing is faster than you saw on my last update (which obviously means that any rain/snow threat for Friday night is non-existent).

Saturday… High pressure builds in from the west with a chilly and breezy start to the day, then clouds slide in from the west late in the day as a warm front approaches from the west.

Sunday… Warm front should push through the region but the day may start gray before becoming brighter and warmer.

Monday… Indications that the frontal boundary that moves north of southern New England Sunday slides back down the coast as a back-door cold front, chilling off at least eastern MA. Cloudiness will be a wild card so will play the wording generically for now.

Tuesday… “Anything can happen.” Well this many days in advance I suppose that is somewhat true. I have seen forecasts ranging through the 60s to 70 for temperatures, but I’m going to make an early call of a mild day, but below 60, behind a weak wave of low pressure and front pushing south of the region and small bubble of high pressure moving in.

Middle of next week… Looking colder to me, and have to watch the potential for some storminess before the week is out.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy morning but thickest cloudiness southeastern MA and RI where some rain is possible, and clouds may be thin enough for sun to show through to the northwest. Increasing sunshine afternoon. Highs around 50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 30 inland, middle to upper 30s over coastal areas. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine much of day, clouds advance late. Highs around 50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds early, more sun later. Low 38. High 64.

MONDAY: Sun early, more clouds later. Low 44. High 60 but possibly much cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 39. High 56.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 49.

7:43AM

Many people this time of year ask the question: “Where is Spring?” The answer I give is: “This IS Spring”. I am not sure where the idea that Spring in New England brings consistent warmth and fair weather came from. But other than in a very anomalous pattern, it could not be further from the truth, and again that will be shown in the coming several days as a variety of weather systems and air masses impact this area including cold winds between high pressure and low pressure funneling a late-season arctic airmass across the region today, milder winds around the back side of high pressure Thursday, a wave of low pressure passing just to the south of the region Friday and Friday night, the cool side of high pressure Saturday, the warmer side of it again Sunday, and more changes early next week as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny start then passing clouds. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds vanish early. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain, may change to mix/snow before ending late at night. Low 38. High 53.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 49.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 63.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 54.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 52.

5:38PM

After a mild and fair weekend and first 2/3 of Monday to end March and start April, we’re in a transition as a strong cold front crosses the region from west to east to end Monday. During the night, cold air will rush in, and will be with southern New England into the middle of the week as high pressure builds in but is centered west of the region, allowing a northwesterly flow and direct access by the cold air. High pressure sinks to the south by Thursday and moderation will be swift, but will be cut off by another cold front Friday. Along with this we’ll be watching the track of a wave of low pressure passing south of the area Friday night which could bring some rain and even a little snow if timing is right. Looking ahead to next weekend, still no changes from the previous outlook – a drier weekend with a chilly start and a warmer finish.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

THROUGH SUNSET/TWILIGHT: Lots of clouds. Showers and thunderstorms pushing across east coastal and southeastern MA, lastly across Cape Cod and the Islands. Brief downpours possible. Temperatures falling into and through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, with some gusts to 40+ MPH possible.

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 54.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers day, a period of rain or snow at night. Low 33. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 30. High 51.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly cloudy PM. Low 38. High 64.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day rain showers. Low 46. High 62.