4:18PM

The cold pool is gone, but the sea breeze front (where edge of sea breeze meets a land breeze) has been responsible for causing some pop up clouds again during the day Saturday, but no heavy showers, just a risk of an isolated sprinkle prior to sunset. Once the sun goes, the clouds will do so as well and a clear and coolish night will follow as high pressure builds over the region. This will lead to a spectacular weather day Sunday, high pressure in control, mild to warm air and lots of sun, with just some coastal sea breezes and a few clouds popping up (less than Saturday).

Once we get to Monday, this high will have slipped further offshore and started to open the door to a more southerly flow, albeit weak, with a slight increase in humidity but still plenty of sun and a few clouds during the day. Tuesday, the south to southwest wind will increase a bit between this departing high pressure area and an approaching cold front from the west.  The trough of low pressure driving the surface low that parents this cold front will dig deeper than usual into the Great Lakes and Midwest, as several previous troughs have done. This will push the front into the region Wednesday, which will be a shower and thunderstorm day. The front should push through the region by early Thursday, but another pool of chilly air above will have to cross the region Thursday and Friday, and though this will probably not be as cold and potent as the one we just saw, it will probably be enough to cause pop up clouds/showers Thursday, and some additional pop up clouds Friday. A very early look at next weekend looks promising, providing that trough moves along.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH EVENING: Clouds and an isolated sprinkle/shower possible mainly northwest of Boston otherwise partly cloudy to mostly clear. Temperatures coast down through the 70s, upper 60s coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes dying out.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Bright nearly-full moon. Lows in the 50s, lower 60s urban areas and immediate shoreline. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny through midday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 75 beaches to 80-85 inland. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A few evening clouds otherwise clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86, cooler South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 79.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered PM showers. Low 61. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 80.

9:34PM

An anomalous pool of cold air almost literally put Winter above Summer Thursday, as the air which was only a little cooler than normal for much of the day at ground level was much colder than average aloft. This made the atmosphere unstable and allowed showers and thunderstorms to pop up. The lack of haze allowed for great visibility and viewing of storms which included spectacular cloud formations, heavy downpours, lightning, and hail. Not every place saw these conditions, yet some saw them more than once. It all depended on where you were in relation to the storms.

Now to look ahead. The chilly pool of air will be moving away to the east but its western edge still still be over eastern MA and NH on Friday, allowing additional clouds to pop up with another risk of showers and thunderstorms. Activity will not be as widespread as it was Thursday.

The weekend: High pressure dominates with fantastic Summer weather – low to moderate humidity, lots of sun, mild to warm air.

Early  next week: High pressure starts to slip offshore allowing warmth and humidity to increase.

Middle next week: Frontal system and another advancing trough brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms with a cooling trend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 50s, around 60 urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, then sun/cloud mix with a risk of isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly afternoon favoring eastern MA and southeastern NH. Highs 73-81, mildest interior eastern MA and interior southern NH. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NW.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind light W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-63. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind light S with sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 80.

7:43AM

Quick forecast update, full discussion and new forecast later today…

TODAY: Lots of clouds with isolated showers morning. Partly sunny with a couple opportunities for scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Any storm may be strong. Highs 70s to lower 80s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Wind light NW to N.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers & t-storms. Highs 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Low 58. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 86.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 87.

11:30PM

As talked about in the previous blog, a trough of low pressure will slowly traverse the Northeast this week, with somewhat unsettled weather as we transition from warmer and slightly more humid air Tuesday into Wednesday to cooler and a drying trend later in the week. The only change is going to be to add a chance of a few lingering showers to Friday’s forecast. The weekend still looks great! An offshore frontal system will help steer Tropical Storm Bertha to the north then northeast between the East Coast and Bermuda, with the only impact being some increased ocean swells and rip currents later in the week at the beaches.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers/t-storms. Any showers and storms could produce downpours. Highs 73-80 South Coast, South Shore, and Cape Cod, 80-87 elsewhere. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-68. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable, mainly SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers & t-storms. Low 60. High 78.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Low 58. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 86.

8:12PM

Well here we are at the end of the first weekend of August. Summer’s rolling along and whether you like heat or not, I bet you are wondering why we haven’t had any prolonged spells of heat. It’s just not the pattern this year. The various atmospheric indices have combined and conspired to produce a southward-displaced jet stream and frequent troughs dropping from Canada into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, or Northeast. This has kept heat in check. This same general pattern will continue into the middle of August. But pulling back a bit it’s time to look at the upcoming 7 days for the weather systems and resultant weather during this time.

We’ll continue to have that old frontal boundary sitting offshore early in the week, and a broad but weak trough of low pressure traversing the Northeast from west to east. It will take 4 days (through Thursday) to do this, so there will be daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though it certainly will not rain much of the time, and some nice weather will also take place. By the time we get to Friday, the trough should be exiting to the east and a push of dry, cooler air will arrive. This sets up what looks at this time to be a great weekend as high pressure dominates. Again there is no major heat in sight.

Also, Tropical Storm Bertha will be taking a track between the US East Coast and Bermuda, passing well southeast of New England about midweek. The only impact will be some increased surf and rip current risks later in the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog.Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible morning-midday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 72-79 South Coast, southeastern MA, and East Coast beaches, 79-85 elsewhere. Wind mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. Lows 60-66. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 70s Cape Cod and coastal areas, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to general showers/thunderstorms especially late. Low 65. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Pop up afternoon showers. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 78.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

2:51AM

Brief update for now with a full discussion to be posted this evening with The Week Ahead.

Minor change for today – more showers further northwestern than expected, so a little on the wet side this morning, and less so this afternoon.

Approaching trough from the west and still a weakness in the pressure field along the coast will keep the risk of unsettled weather going for much of the coming week through Thursday, but shower activity will just be isolated to scattered with no long-lasting rain. Tropical Storm Bertha will move from the north central Caribbean into the eastern Bahamas today, then curve north to northeast between Bermuda and the US East Coast by the middle of the coming week. This path will keep the wind/rain from the storm well offshore but may increase surf and rip currents at the beaches by later in the week.

Low pressure trough may be slow to leave so some clouds and a shower may hang around even on Friday. High pressure should arrive by the start of next weekend with some nice weather!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Limited sun – lots of clouds. Episodes of showers, possible in any areas this morning but favoring southeastern areas overall through the day. Highs in the 70s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 80.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 58. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

9:47AM

A frontal system will be just offshore through the weekend and it looks like it will remain east of southeastern New England, keeping this area on the cloudier, cooler side. We’ll also be dealing with areas of rain sliding up along the front, most notably today, which will be the wettest day, coverage-wise, with rain for a good portion of RI, eastern MA, and southern NH to some extent, into the afternoon before the area pushes back to the east and out of the region. Clouds may even break late in the day with a few areas possibly (no promises) seeing some sun before it sets. With temperature and dew point hanging out around each other tonight, we cannot rule out areas of fog forming. It looks like clouds will be the rule Sunday but most of the rain should stay offshore, with another patchy area possibly forming but staying to the west of the region. This should leave southeastern New England in between with just a slight risk of showers.

The front that sits just to the east during the weekend likely dissipates by Monday as a  new trough from the west pushes into the region, but takes 4 days to pass by. What does this mean? It means humid, but not hot, and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday. Details and timing will be worked out as each day moves closer.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with rain ranging from steadiest and moderate at times in southeastern MA and RI to lighter and more occasional further north and west. Decreasing rain from west to east mid afternoon with all areas rain-free by day’s end, lots of clouds still remaining but some breaking clouds with even some sun possible later on. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable to mostly E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Daily risk of showers/t-storms. Overnight lows mainly 60s. Daytime highs middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low around 60. High around 80.