7:32AM

SUMMARY…
This is a short update making only a few adjustments. Warm front struggles to get across the region today, typical of Spring in this area. Temperatures starting out in the middle to upper 30s this morning with areas of rain and fog. It will struggle to reach the 50s by late in the day. Southeastern New England spends a few hours in the warm sector this evening but rain showers announce the arriving cold front. Fear not, this front brings good news and that is a drier weekend. You’ll have to endure a gusty breeze and less than 100% sun on Saturday as cold air aloft allows for some clouds to form. By Sunday, high pressure overhead means nothing but sun, but the light wind may allow for coastal seabreezes, spoiling the “60s party” that some inland areas may finally make it to. By Monday, going to be optimistic and go for a southwest wind and a warmer scenario for all but the South Coast and Cape Cod. A cold front swings through Monday night with rain showers then offshore Tuesday which will be another mild day with sun returning. A chance for the end of the forecast period is to call for dry and slightly cooler weather Wednesday and warmer again Thursday as another bubble of high pressure comes across the region. As always, the details of the end of the forecast period are lower confidence.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain with embedded heavier showers. Slight risk of thunder. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s not until late in the day. Wind light N to E through mid morning, E to SE late morning into early afternoon, eventually S increasing to 5-15 MPH later in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Partly cloudy late. Lows in the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH overnight.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows in the 30s. Diminishing W wind.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-65 inland but 50s coast and may cool back below 50 immediate shore. Wind light variable with coastal seabreezes.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Rain showers at night. Low 45. High 65.
TUESDAY: Early rain showers then clearing. Low 50. High 60.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 55.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60.

7:36AM

SUMMARY…
Quick discussion due to lack of time this morning. Still on cold side of boundary, drizzly and overcast today. A northward push of the boundary brings a chance of rain tonight and gets southeastern New England into milder air Friday, but still dominated by cloudiness and a rain shower threat ahead of a cold front. This front clears the region by early Saturday and turns the weather much nicer for the weekend. Cold pool of air aloft allows for some diurnal clouds Saturday. Sunday should be sunnier with high pressure overhead. High moves offshore early next week and allows it to warm, but coastal areas may be subject to ocean winds which would modify temperatures significantly there. Details to come as it gets closer. Disturbance arrives from the west by next Wednesday with a rain shower threat.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Drizzle and areas of fog mainly this morning. Highs around 40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady around 40 then rising toward 50. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 55-60, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 55.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 60.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s, cooler coastal areas.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 50. High 60.

3:28AM

SUMMARY…
The boundary line between Spring warmth and Spring chill is located just south of New England and will wave around there through Thursday. A disturbance will move along this boundary from west to east Wednesday night and early Thursday while high pressure tries to push down from the north as well, supplying cold air. In mid Winter, this would be a set-up for a light to moderate snow event. At this time of year, it will be an event of rain, mix, and some snow, depending on where you are. It’s a little iffy getting these zones just right, but it looks like most of the precipitation will be Wednesday night and in the form of snow/sleet in southern NH, sleet and rain in northern MA with some snow possible, and mostly rain in southern MA and RI with some sleet possible. Another disturbance and a northward push of the boundary later Thursday through early Friday will end up as rain with warmer air moving in aloft. Finally on Friday, southeastern New England should end up on the warmer side of the boundary, but still with lots of clouds and a rain shower threat as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will push through the region early Saturday and we will see a transition to slightly cooler, drier air during Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday and moves off to the east Monday with fair and generally mild weather, but watch for the ocean’s influence keeping coastal areas somewhat cooler. High pressure will try to hang on Tuesday but we’ll also have to watch another disturbance advancing in from the west.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain/sleet/snow afternoon. Highs 40-45 north, 45-50 south. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Mix to snow/sleet southern NH with 1/2 to 2 inches accumulation, rain to sleet and some snow northern MA with coatings likely, rain mixed with sleet southern MA/RI with no accumulation expected. Lows 32-40, coldest to the north of Boston. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light mix north and rain south. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures rising slowly through the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle mainly northern MA and southern NH early. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon from northwest to southeast. Highs in the 50s to near 60. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered rain showers early. Low 45. High 55.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60, cooler some coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 55 coastal areas to 65 inland.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 60, cooler some coastal areas.

6:54PM

COMMENTARY…
Forecasting: It’s predicting the future. And it’s not easy. Nor can it be done in great detail without some error. And the further out in time you go (sometimes not far out at all), the greater the error becomes, most of the time, unless you’re lucky. Yesterday I made a forecast which had today cloudier and a little cooler in some areas than it turned out, and with a little more precipitation in it than actually took place. Though I did expect a frontal boundary to lift to the north and allow at least some partial clearing to come in, and that did indeed happen, there were some other surprises. I’m not sure I would have forecast Boston to be 41 and Hartford to be 61 at 4PM, but I do also know that this is not all that unusual either. It’s just little details that sometimes have significant results. That was one such detail / result. As Hartford was sitting at 61, Mount Washington, the “top of New England” way up in NH was a frigid 16 and shrouded in fog and snow – a reminder that “Winter” is not that far away. And to add to the contrast, a the Boston Red Sox opened their season in Philadelphia PA, where the high temperature was 74 today – a little hint of Summer. So there you have it, the contrast. It’s a common thing and especially so in the Spring of the year in the Northeast, as well as other parts of the country. And it can sure make forecasting an adventure. This is the reason why it is very important to follow updates if you are tracking the weather for upcoming events or just everyday needs. Hopefully if you follow this blog for that reason, I’ll be able to update frequently enough to satisfy you. That said, I’m heading to Florida in mid April for a week, because I have decided to go search for Summer a little early this year. Actually, I’m just going to Disney World. 🙂

SUMMARY…
A wavy frontal boundary drifted to the north of the Boston area Monday but will come back to the south by early Tuesday, and sit down there to the south through Thursday. That spells chilly and unsettled weather with little if any sun for most of southeastern New England during the next few days. So the bonus sunshine and somewhat milder air of Monday will be gone. But fear not, there are signs of improvement late this week, and that gloomy outlook I originally had for the weekend may find a need to be scrapped in favor of a better forecast as it looks like things will move along and high pressure will take over for the weekend then move offshore slowly by Monday as high pressure makes an attempt to build aloft along the East Coast – something that hasn’t happened much in recent weeks. And dare I say it: Some of you may find early next week “warm”. But a caveat: It’s April, and there is a very cold ocean sitting next to us. That can change things at least along the coast. Early next week (Monday) is also 7 days away.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clouds return. Spotty light rain late. Lows 40-48. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of light rain, favoring southern MA and RI. Temperatures steady 40-48, may cool slightly to upper 30s immediate eastern coastal areas. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of rain/sleet/snow. Only brief snow/sleet coatings possible at most. Lows in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A little sun possible southern NH and northern MA morning. Spotty light rain/mix possible later. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 40.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 60.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 55.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 60.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 65 inland, cooler coast.

5:43PM

SUMMARY…
For the next 7 days, we’ll be in an unsettled pattern. Does that mean overcast and precipitating all the time? Certainly not. But don’t look for any bright sunny days and warm Springtime air. We’ll spend most of the time in cloudiness, with occasional breaks, along with bouts of precipitation, mostly rain, but maybe some that is not rain. Timing will be difficult to determine but this is my best shot at how I see it breaking down. West-to-east frontal boundary sits over the Northeast, spending most of its time just south of southern New England, but may push far enough north for a break and somewhat milder air in southern portions of southern New England later Monday into early Tuesday, then sinks more to the south allowing the colder side to dominate later Tuesday and Wednesday. It may chill down enough so that anything that falls from the sky is not just rain, but possibly mixed and even some snow by later Wednesday. Again, uncertainty here, so don’t buy it as a high-confidence forecast. Updates will be needed. The boundary may push far enough south with a larger high pressure area to the north on Thursday so that we get some sun, at least in portions of the region, but low pressure returns to domination on Friday with cloudiness and a better chance of wet weather. A peak into the weekend shows additional low pressure in the region with more unsettled weather, but again, exact details are impossible to determine this far in advance. Stay tuned…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of light rain and possible mix/snow from south central MA to the South Coast, less chance to the north. Lows 33-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, variable under 10 MPH for a while, then light SE.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few periods of light rain mainly southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 44-52. Wind light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle near eastern coastal areas. Lows 33-39 except 40-45 South Coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle, especially southern MA and RI. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to ENE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle/mix. Temperatures cool to 30s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Lows around 35. Highs around 50.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows around 45. Highs around 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows around 45. Highs around 55.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/drizzle AM. Breaking clouds PM. Lows around 40. Highs around 50.

9:38AM

This is just another quick forecast update…discussion will appear on The Week Ahead post this evening.

Happy Easter to those of you celebrating the holiday today!

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 15-30 MPH and gusty this morning, diminishing slowly this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of light rain/snow. Minor snow accumulation possible. Lows in the 30s. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain/snow early. Highs in the 40s. Wind light E to SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle. Low 40. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 55.

10:48AM

No discussion on this update due to other obligations today including a wake for my aunt. I will update again later with a full discussion. A forecast update follows…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON: Sun and clouds. Temperatures falling slowly through the 40s. Wind W to NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 40 MPH and above likely.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows in the 20s to around 30. Wind NW 15-30 MPH and gusty early, diminishing late.
SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of very light rain/mix afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of mix to snow with minor accumulation possible. Lows around 30. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain at times. Highs around 40 north of Boston to 45-50 southwest of Boston. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of light rain/drizzle/sleet/snow. Temperatures 33-45.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of rain showers. Temperatures 45-55.

7:27AM

SUMMARY…
Well here we go, from a day that will make it feel like May, to a reminder of Winter, to what will feel like permanent March. That is Spring in New England. And here we go. In the warm sector today, warmest of course away from the South Coast where a southwest wind still comes off the chilly ocean water. Showers in most areas will hold off until day’s end, except near the cooler South Coast, the area that gets the worst of the deal today. Does someone hit 70 today? I think so…but it won’t be the South Coast. Get the idea here? No big changes to the expectations tonight into Saturday as a cold front settles into the region slowly, waits for a low pressure wave to ride along it enhancing rainfall, then pulls through and offshore more rapidly later Saturday morning as low pressure moves away. Cold air comes in but not fast enough to flip rain to snow before precipitation ends. Then comes the wind for Saturday afternoon and night, into Easter Sunday, along with the cold, but dry weather. Not a great trade off considering how cold it will feel. We’ll be dealing with wind chills Saturday night. Then…it looks like we get into one of those ruts, which in Springtime are usually not great ones for this part of the country. That will be the case this time, as we end up in a cold ocean flow with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south for many days next week. There is hope for a break somewhere in there but odds don’t favor it, so it won’t show up in this forecast for now…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast with episodes of showers. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny elsewhere. Clouds thicken all areas evening. Highs ranging from 45-50 South Coast to 65-70 west and north of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, along with embedded heavier showers. Lows 45-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with rain, ending southwest to northeast by midday. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-55 morning then falling through the 40s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty morning, diminishing afternoon.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of light rain/sleet/snow possible. Temperatures generally 33-45 throughout the period.

8:18AM

SUMMARY…
A warm front moves through southern New England today with periods of cloudiness and eventually more sun. What you will notice most of all is it feeling much milder by late in the day. This mild air will continue to flow across the region on a gusty wind through most of Friday as well but will come with periodic showers, mainly overnight tonight, part of Friday morning, and later in the day Friday. There may be some rain-free periods and even breaks of sun possible during the day Friday – not a perfect Spring day but it will feel quite nice, breaking 60 in many areas with the exception of areas that a southwest wind comes off water (South Coast, Cape Cod). A cold front slowly moves across the region Friday night into Saturday but slows enough for a wave of low pressure to come right across the region in the early hours of Saturday. This will enhance rainfall overnight into Saturday morning as the mild air tries to hang on. The rest of Saturday will feature lots of clouds, maybe a rain or snow shower, some sun, and a colder wind as opposed to the mild wind of Friday. This sets up an Easter Sunday that will feature more sunshine but along with very chilly air. I don’t believe the disturbance that I was watching earlier will be significant enough to cause any snow shower threat, so that’s gone from the forecast. What will be on the way is an extended stretch of unsettled weather next week, but to allow you some time to enjoy the milder weather coming in today and Friday we’ll leave out details of next week for now.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Variably cloudy with clouds dominant through early afternoon and sun more dominant thereafter. Highs in the 50s except 40s Cape Cod and immediate South Coast, may touch 60 interior eastern MA area. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Rain showers likely late evening and overnight. Lows around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Breaks of sun at times? Rain showers likely early and again by evening but only isolated most of the day. Highs 45-50 immediate South Coast and Cape Cod, 60s most areas with a narrow ribbon of 50s in between just inland from the South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with additional rain. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon with a passing rain or snow shower. Temperatures fall from near 50 to the upper 30s. Windy especially afternoon.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle possible. Temperatures 35-45 daily.

7:26AM

SUMMARY…
So in comes April, but don’t be fooled. This month, like March, has its fair share of built-in volatility. And this April will start out just that way as we remain in a transitional pattern. High pressure makes today nice, but a warm front arrives Thursday with cloudiness, maybe a touch of very light rain in a few locations briefly then brighter and milder later in the day. But clouds return at night and Friday as cold front approaches. This front will bring rain showers at times on Friday and as it passes it will slow down and park itself across southeastern New England. This will allow a low pressure wave to form on the front and come right up across the area with a period of rain Friday night which may end as snow in parts of the region morning or midday Saturday. The rest of Saturday will feature wind and falling temperatures with lots of clouds remaining as low pressure starts to move away. This will lead to a cold Easter Sunday (any surprise by now?) with maybe a passing snow shower as a small disturbance move through. The early part of next week looks unsettled as a warm front approaches Monday. Not sure if that front gets all the way through the region, but it would probably be unsettled Tuesday either stuck just north of the warm front in the cool air with some rain or between a warm and cold front in milder, showery weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with a slight chance of very light rain mainly north central MA and southern NH. Partly to mostly sunny mid afternoon on. Highs 50-55, 40s South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Windy. Low 50. High 60.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain ending as snow AM. Mostly cloudy PM. Windy. Temps fall 50s to 30s.
SUNDAY: Sun and clouds. Slight chance of a snow shower. Windy. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Low 40. High 55.