7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)
Heat makes a quick return today on a light northwesterly air flow and there may just enough instability in the atmosphere to kick off an isolated shower or thunderstorm, though the risk for any one region is very slight. A disturbance will cross the region Friday into Saturday with a couple opportunities for showers and storms. And that previously-advertised potential of a cooler shot of air comes to fruition Sunday and Monday, our first delivery of drier air from Canada in a while, before it warms back up a bit by the end of the period. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 64-70. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple episodes of scattered to general showers and thunderstorms possible. Any thunderstorm can be strong especially well west of Boston. Highs 76-84. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms can be strong. Lows 64-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms with the chance decreasing from north to south. Highs 75-83. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)
Warming back up during this period. A front may bring a few showers and thunderstorms August 22 with another threat around August 25.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)
Late August looks warmer than average, humid, and with a few additional shower and thunderstorm opportunities, though not as wet as the first half of the month was.

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)
High pressure moves in today and dominates through Thursday. Next disturbance arrives with a shower and thunderstorm threat Friday into Saturday, with another on its heels for late Sunday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Highs 74-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-68. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 coast, 83-88 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly afternoon and evening. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest eastern coast.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly morning. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 70s to lower 80s, coolest coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers, mainly late-day. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)
Shower risk into August 20 and again late August 21 and August 23 as a series of disturbances cross the region. Temperatures fairly close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-28)
High pressure backs up and strengthens a little bit off the East Coast, returning more heat and limiting rainfall.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)
The pattern that set itself up at the end of last week, high pressure further east offshore and a series of weak troughs making their way through the Northeast, will continue through this period. We will have to watch for shower and thunderstorm development later today, after areas of dense fog burn off to a sky of clouds mixed with sun. I have been concerned about possible strong storms, but I do think it will remain stable enough over most of the region today to prevent this, with most of the heavier activity occurring west of the region. Still looking for a drier interlude later Wednesday and Thursday before the next disturbance arrives during Friday and departs during Saturday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with areas of dense fog into mid morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 inland. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Highs 74-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-68. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 coast, 83-88 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers mainly afternoon and evening. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest eastern coast.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly morning. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 70s to lower 80s, coolest coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)
Another risk of showers August 19 with the next in a series of disturbances, followed by another one about August 21 and possibly August 23. Temperature fairly close to normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)
High pressure backs up and strengthens a little bit off the East Coast, returning more heat and limiting rainfall.

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)
High pressure remains off the East Coast but far enough to have allowed an upper level low pressure area to toy with the region for a few days, and in some cases result in flooding rain. This low keeps it unsettled for a few more days but each of these days will have a slightly different character, today being the coolest and most damp of the days with a continue light northeasterly fair flow, Tuesday feeling more tropical with a more southerly flow, and also a day we have to watch for what won’t be a widespread severe outbreak by any means but the possibility that a few strong storms may develop, and Wednesday will be a day that is warm but may start to feel a bit of a drop off in the humidity as the wind turns more westerly after our low pressure area, which starts out south of the region, backs up to the west and becomes part of the larger scale pattern then swings back through as a trough from west to east by the middle of the week. This sets up a nice day Thursday, which for now I will leave showers out of the forecast, only to bring them back as a risk for Friday as another disturbance approaches from the west. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. Isolated to scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 67-72 coast, 72-77 inland. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with a slight risk of a few strong storms late in the day. Humid. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 inland. Wind light S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Highs 74-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest eastern coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)
Shower risk early August 18 then drying out as one disturbance moves out to the east. Shower risk returns August 19 as another disturbance moves in from the west. Another disturbance comes through around August 21 with a shower/thunderstorm risk as the ridge to the east remains far enough out there to allow the same pattern to continue.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)
Quick shot of cooler air comes early in this period followed by a return to heat as high pressure strengthens off the East Coast. Limited rainfall.

11:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)
Not too much to change or add for today’s update. Low pressure to the south of New England continues to deliver a humid and relatively cool (in comparison to recent weather) episode with occasional wet weather including heavy downpours. This will go on through tomorrow in the form it’s in now, then take on a little more tropical feel by Tuesday as we see the low back up to the west and start to become absorbed in a large scale southerly air flow. There are some other parameters that will be present on Tuesday that may result in a risk for some severe storm development. I’m not convinced of this, but it is something to watch closely. By Wednesday, the remains of our current low pressure system will come back eastward across the region in the form of a trough, which still results in a shower/storm risk for part of the day, but once it passes introduces slightly drier air. This will set up a very nice summer day for Thursday as high pressure moves in. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy but breaks of sun possible. Scattered to isolated showers and possible thunderstorms, some with very heavy downpours. Humid. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated to scattered showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Humid. Highs 73-78 coast, 79-84 interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms with greatest chance morning, lesser chance afternoon. Gradually lowering humidity. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)
While the ridge in the Atlantic hangs a little further east a couple more disturbances will be able to move through from west to east. This would bring a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, right now favoring August 17 and 19 for the wetter days. This may change as timing is not certain. Temperatures close to or even slightly below normal but humidity will be higher much of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)
A possible quick shot of cooler/drier air to start the period then warmer/humid weather returns with a couple shower opportunities. Heat may try to build later in the period as high pressure again strengthens off the East Coast and backs westward.

11:31AM

COMMENTARY
We currently have a good example going on of medium range uncertainty in forecasting. Guidance alone pretty much failed to pick up on this small low pressure area impacting the weekend weather when this period of time was beyond several days in the future. The general outlook was one that would probably have you envisioning a more typical August weekend with warmth, humidity, and maybe a few showers/storms. Well, this is not actually all that far off of that, being cooler due to cloud cover and an onshore flow, but with the humidity and some wet weather, just a little more widespread. We started to pick up on this a few days ago, and even then still had to adjust timing and location as initially it looked like the South Coast would be the wettest place today. The lesson here, even though we can see a lot of things in the future, never take a day 5 forecast and expect it to verify exactly. There is a reason why forecasts, including the one on this blog, is updated daily. Predicting the future is not easy. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)
Low pressure will impact the weather for this entire period, but that does not mean 5 days of rain and cool temperatures either. We will witness an evolution in details as low pressure spins to the south of New England this weekend and then backs up to the west early next week, being absorbed by a larger scale southerly flow, then the remains of the low coming back across the region in the form of a trough by the end of the period. What does this all mean for the weather here? Well we’ve already seen some heavy showers in southern areas but the axis of most widespread rain will now shift to one that runs from southeastern NH and northeastern through central MA down through RI & eastern CT, and these areas will be wettest most often through this evening, including some embedded downpours which may result in some road flooding, as well as the chance of a few rumbles of thunder. To the southeast of this, activity will be more isolated, but any downpours that do develop there have the chance to produce a strong wind gust with even some local damage possible. Tonight, that axis will pivot eastward and a more general area of showers/thunderstorms will move back across the entire region before exiting early on Sunday. During Sunday, activity will be much more isolated regionwide, but some breaks of sun can still fuel some pretty serious downpours, so while many areas may get through the day with little or no rainfall, some areas that do see it can pick up quite a bit in a short time. Another surge of energy may increase the coverage of showers/storms on Monday. By Tuesday when our friendly low pressure area has moved back to the west we’ll get into a more tropical-feeling southerly air flow with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms, and Wednesday is the day when it all comes back east as a trough with additional showers and storms possible, but probably more then exception than the rule. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, some heavy. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Most numerous shower activity southeastern NH, northeastern through central MA, RI, and eastern CT. Humid. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH. Slight risk of briefly stronger wind gusts in any isolated downpours/storms in southern areas.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Numerous showers with probable embedded thunderstorms, some heavy. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light E but briefly strong wind gusts possible in any storms.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered to isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower to middle 70s coast, upper 70s to lower 80s interior.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)
While the ridge in the Atlantic hangs a little further east a couple more disturbances will be able to move through from west to east. This would bring a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but overall this period would not be all that wet. Seasonably warm and somewhat humid weather will be the rule, though August 16 may be briefly less humid.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)
A possible quick shot of cooler/drier air to start the period then warmer/humid weather returns with a couple shower opportunities. Heat may try to build later in the period as high pressure again strengthens off the East Coast and backs westward.

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)
Some adjustments to the forecast today, as the unsettled weather is going to make a quicker arrival than I had been thinking. Enjoy one very bright, warm, and less humid day today, as an easterly air flow takes over this weekend along with some period of wet weather, as low pressure evolves south of New England. This will persist into early next week but as the low finally drifts westward and high pressure off the East Coast strengthens a little bit later in the period the air flow will become more southerly by Tuesday, allowing it to warm slightly. The humidity, which takes a bit of a break today especially away from the South Coast, makes a comeback from the weekend onward, but this time without the heat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 62-68. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm interior areas. Humid. Highs 72-80. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)
The ridge offshore may not be quite as strong as expected before so this may allow additional disturbances from the west to enhance the shower/thunderstorm risk at times in an overall warm/humid pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)
A quick shot of cooler air is possible early in the period then turning warmer to hotter with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)
No big changes on this update. Humidity hangs around today as a cold front slowly moves through the region, so after the damp start with some lingering showers behind last evening’s showers/storms, there may be some additional showers and storms developing again during today, though more scattered to isolated than the activity ended up being yesterday. The pick of the week, weatherwise, will be Friday – a very warm day with somewhat lower humidity. The weekend will be less warm, but more humid, thanks to a low pressure circulation south of New England and a general southeasterly to easterly air flow. As the low start to move to the west the flow may turn more southerly by Monday, still a humid set-up with a shower threat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous to scattered showers morning. Partly cloudy with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. More humid. Possible showers favoring the South Coast. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)
Additional showers and possible thunderstorms with most south to southwest air flow August 14 followed by a more westerly air flow with a drier and warmer to hotter trend again.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)
A disturbance from the west cuts into the ridge with a shower/thunderstorm threat and a quick shot of cooler air before warmth and humidity resumes control.

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)
The Dog Days have been in full force and we get one more today, but then a little break is coming up, more from the heat than the humidity, however we are going to feel somewhat of a break in the humidity as well for a short period of time during the end of this week. First, 3 players will be the trigger for possible showers and thunderstorms. The first will be a sea breeze boundary that forms today along both eastern and southern coasts of southern New England which can trigger isolated to scattered showers/storms any time from early afternoon to early evening. The second will be a trough approaching from the west that will have already fired off showers/storms in more of a line or line clusters to the west of the region. This will bring the risk of isolated to scattered showers/storms in from west to east later this evening and into the morning hours of Thursday. The third is a cold front which will be crossing the region during the course of the day Thursday and this will extend the showers and storm threat, although coverage is expected to drop off from west to east during the day. Beyond this conglomeration of firing mechanisms, we get a sliver of warm but drier air for Friday. The position of high pressure, and a bit of a low pressure circulation developing to the south, is going to result in an air flow from the east or southeast during the coming weekend, resulting in a more significant break from any heat. The moisture associated with the low pressure circulation should stay far enough south to allow a rain-free Saturday, but the threat of some wet weather increases by Sunday as this area creeps a bit to the north. We’ll also notice the humidity making a comeback during the course of the weekend, especially by Sunday, even without the heat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Hazy sun dominant early then clouds popping up leading to a variably cloudy sky with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 65-73. Wind light SE shifting to SW.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous to scattered showers and thunderstorms morning. Partly cloudy with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)
A low pressure circulation to the south combines with trough moving eastward in the jet stream, allowed by a weakening and shifting eastward of the Atlantic high pressure ridge, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms during the August 13-14 period. A more westerly flow with drier weather follows this and with a little more strength to the ridge off the coast it pushes the jet stream north again and allows a trend to hotter weather after a cooler start to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)
The ridge holds on early in the period then gives way briefly to a passing trough, a shower/thunderstorm threat, and a quick shot of cooler air, before a quick return to warmth and humidity later in the period.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)
Very quick update because 1) there are no changes (again) and 2) I spent too much time in the comment section. Another hot one today as the ridge sits atop the area. Then the long-talked-about eastward slip of the ridge takes place starting later today and onward through late this week, allowing the trough to the west to approach and a front to slowly cross the region. Our opportunity for showers/storms, isolated at first, arrives late today from west to east, and they will be of the scattered variety Wednesday only to become more isolated again during Thursday as we enter the final hours of the window of chance. Another opportunity may present itself in isolated form by later Saturday as another front gets close. “Cold fronts” in this pattern are not going to deliver refreshing dry air, as they are usually at the end of their life cycle and in the process of washing out. So without further ado, here is a detailed forecast very much the same looking as the one before it…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon on favoring areas well west of Boston. Humid. Highs 82-87 coast, 87-92 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-74. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 82-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Humid. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows 65-73. Wind light S to SW.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slightly less humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon. Highs 80-87. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)
Isolated thunderstorms are possible August 12 and 14, otherwise mainly dry weather and temperatures ending up above normal with more building heat as the dominant high pressure ridge slides back to the west, closer to the Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)
Very warm to hot pattern with mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms at times as the Bermuda High remains dominant but some heat from the middle of the US also gets transported via the Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of another advancing trough through this first half of this period. By late in the period this trough may send a more general area of showers/storms through followed by a brief shot of cooler air.

6:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)
High pressure ridge dominates and heat peaks today, then the ridge slips back to the east a little and allows a trough from the west to get closer. This will create an approximately 48 hour long period in which showers and thunderstorms are possible from about the middle of Tuesday afternoon to the middle of Thursday afternoon, but the most likely time to see these will be Wednesday. This chance diminishes late in the week as the piece of the trough that comes eastward lifts out and high pressure regains control. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-88 south-facing shores, 89-96 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-73. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 82-87 coast, 87-92 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-74. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Highs 82-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slightly less humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon. Lows from the lower 60s to lower 70s, warmest in urban areas. Highs in the 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)
Isolated thunderstorms are possible August 12 and 14, otherwise mainly dry weather and temperatures ending up above normal with more building heat as the dominant high pressure ridge slides back to the west, closer to the Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)
Very warm to hot pattern with mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms at times as the Bermuda High remains dominant but some heat from the middle of the US also gets transported via the Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of another advancing trough.

8:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)
Short and sweet update, with basically no changes from yesterday’s forecast. More heat for a few days as ridge dominates and then that ridge slides to the east again and a trough brings in a better shower/storm risk by the middle of next week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 64-72. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-88 south-facing shores, 89-96 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-73. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Highs 82-87 coast, 87-92 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Lows from the middle 60s to middle 70s, warmest in urban areas. Highs in the 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slightly less humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows from the lower 60s to lower 70s, warmest in urban areas. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)
Isolated thunderstorms are possible August 11, 12, and 14, otherwise mainly dry weather and temperatures ending up above normal with more building heat as the dominant high pressure ridge slides back to the west, closer to the Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)
Very warm to hot pattern with mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms at times as the Bermuda High remains dominant but some heat from the middle of the US also gets transported eastward as well.

12:51PM

COMMENTARY
Apology for the late regular update. Got caught up in following the band of rain/thunderstorms that included a couple tornado warnings. Significant damage occurred in Webster MA but it is unclear yet whether this was caused by a tornado, microburst, or straight-line winds. The NWS will investigate and issue a report on it. The area was under a tornado warning at the time but that is no guarantee that a tornado actually touched down. It was occurring in an area of heavy rain and very poor visibility so there was likely no human sighting of an actual tornado on the ground. The NWS will investigate the damage.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)
The “fun” of the morning is generally over with but the band of rain and some downpours continues to press eastward through eastern MA and southeastern NH and there are still some areas of flooding being reported. As this area moves away today the atmosphere remains unstable, and with a front still yet to come through, other showers and storms will form, and though they may not be as widespread as this morning’s activity, some of them can be rather strong. This threat goes on until around sunset before things settle down tonight, and then high pressure moves in and it’s all about the feel of summer. Although the humidity will drop a little bit for Sunday and Monday, you won’t feel much of a difference as it will heat up. Humidity comes back up Tuesday as the heat continues, and then when we get to Wednesday we may be looking at some interesting weather as showers/storms appear likely as a front moves into the hot and humid air mass. Forecast details…
THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Rain and possible thunder east coastal MA and NH through Cape Cod gradually diminishing but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible anywhere else and can develop rather quickly. Very humid. Highs 75-83. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusty at times, also becoming variable at times.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a lingering shower possible early. Clearing but with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind light variable becoming W up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-70. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-88 south-facing shores, 89-96 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows from the middle 60s to middle 70s, warmest in urban areas. Highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s, coolest south-facing shores.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Lows from the middle 60s to middle 70s, warmest in urban areas. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)
Isolated thunderstorms are possible August 9, 11, and 12, otherwise mainly dry weather and temperatures ending up above normal with more building heat as the dominant high pressure ridge, which briefly lets go of the area, makes a comeback mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)
Very warm to hot pattern with mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms at times as the Bermuda High remains dominant but some heat from the middle of the US also gets transported eastward.

9:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)
Again a lot of repeating here. Bermuda High, etc etc, you get it by now. Today will be like yesterday, very warm and humid, chance of passing storms later but favoring areas west and north of Boston. The axis may end up a little further northwest than it was able to get yesterday but we’ll see if this holds, because outflow boundaries from storms can “recreate” where things happen. Still expecting a front to cross the region Saturday and an additional wave of low pressure on it may make things a little more interesting in terms of where and when storms occur and how severe they may end up. More on this in the comments below and on the next update. Slightly less humid but hotter air arrives Sunday into Monday but by Tuesday the ridge slides to the east a bit and a new trough approaches from the west with a greater risk for showers/storms again. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely, favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 78-87, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely early, then gradual clearing but areas of fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise mostly sunny. Slightly less humid. Highs 82-87 coast, 87-92 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. More humid. Chance of afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows from the middle to upper 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)
Opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with warmth and high humidity as a ridge is offshore, though further east, and a trough is anchored to the west of New England. In August, this is a warm, muggy, and somewhat showery pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)
Atlantic ridge comes back west and mid August heat and humidity and a daily risk for isolated to scattered showers/t-storms seems to be what we’ll experience.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)
Bermuda High controls the weather and will be the driving force for some time, however there will be a front from the west that does make it through the region during the weekend. After 2 days of air mass type isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday, activity may increase with this front Saturday and then some drier, but hotter air will be here for Sunday and Monday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely, favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 78-87, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY & MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)
Ridge slips back to the east and allows more Midwest trough to slide into the Northeast, and while the heat eases the humidity tries to stay in place, and couple fronts interacting with it will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)
Our friendly Atlantic ridge comes back west, humidity generally stays, showers/storms become more isolated, and heat increases again.