7:41AM
DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)
High pressure is exiting today but is close enough that we start with sunshine, but a vigorous low pressure trough moving eastward from the Upper Midwest and carrying a surface low will spawn a secondary low just southwest of New England this evening that will move rapidly northeastward right across southern New England tonight, maxing out in intensity by early Thursday as it does a cyclonic loop over NH/VT, then pulls away through Maine later Thursday. This type of track brings a quick shot of heavy rain to the region in most cases, and this won’t be much different than the average case, though the heaviest of the rain will likely occur west of southeastern New England, with another strip of heavier rainfall offshore, leaving this area somewhat “in the middle”, though not to downplay the impact of heavy rain reducing visibility for overnight driving, and road flooding especially as wind/rain knocks down leaves and clogs up storm drains. So even though the heaviest rainfall, which may contain embedded thunderstorms, will have exited pre-dawn, there may be some lingering road and parking lot flooding into the Thursday morning commute to be aware of. The other story with this system is the wind, which will become moderate to strong from the southeast and east ahead of the low’s arrival, variable during its passage and somewhat weaker, then returning from the west to northwest at moderate to strong speeds during Thursday, then diminishing only gradually through Friday as the low expands its size while traveling through eastern Canada as high pressure approaches from the west. Some tree damage is inevitable in our aging forest, and therefore some power outages will likely result. Coastal flooding will not be an issue with this storm system. Need a break? You got it this weekend as high pressure takes over, centered to the south, allowing a nice moderation in temperature, although expect a cold start on Saturday morning and a chilly Sunday morning. It will be the afternoons that are pleasantly mild to warm.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 58-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving evening from southwest to northeast, peaking overnight with moderate to heavy rain and possible thunder, diminishing to scattered rain showers by dawn from south to north. Lows 50-57. Wind SE to E 15-25 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH coast, stronger gusts in all areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with numerous to scattered rain showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind variable 10-20 MPH early to mid morning, becoming W to NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)
High pressure moves off the coast and low pressure heads for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley early next week, and our weather starts mild and fair October 21 then transitions to rain showers followed by clearing and cooling during October 22-23 based on current timing. Next disturbance may bring rain shower threat by later October 24 or early October 25 followed by breezy/cooler weather to end the period.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)
Still feeling that westerly flow should dominate overall but will continue to watch for a digging trough of low pressure trying to kick something more important off in terms of storminess to the south of the region. We will probably see an overall trend to near to below normal temperatures. Still much fine-tuning to do for late month’s weather.