C-19 Chat Post – April 23 2020

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 22-26)
A cool and active weather pattern continues and will for the foreseeable future, and certainly overall for these next 5 days, although we sneak in a fairly nice spring day Saturday between low pressure systems that will bring some rain to the region Friday and again Sunday. Before that, a windy and chilly but dry Wednesday, and a more tranquil Thursday but increasing cloudiness ahead of Friday’s system.
TODAY: Sun, some passing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusting over 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight, especially southern areas. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, steadiest/heaviest I-90 southward, lighter to the north, tapering off late day from northwest to southeast. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may mix with sleet or snow interior higher elevations late-day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 27-MAY 1)
Low pressure departs to east but upper level low pressure lingers with scattered showers of rain/sleet/snow possible April 27. Fair April 28. Next low pressure area impact the region April 29-30 with anomalously cold air in place with rain/sleet/snow all possible. Dry weather returns May 1. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 2-6)
Milder, but temperatures still below to near normal. Somewhat drier, but a couple minor rainfall events possible.

C-19 Chat Post – April 22 2020

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 21-25)
A strong cold front will charge across southeastern New England later today bringing one or 2 bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms. At the very least, the final band should be a pretty solid one, lasting up to a couple hours in terms of rainfall, but may be accompanied by a burst strong wind and brief small hail. Isolate wind damage can occur, which could lead to a few power outages. Also where rain is heavy enough, reduced visibility and ponding of water can make travel more hazardous, so be on the look-out for these conditions if you have to be out. Once this front clears the region tonight, we’ll turn windy with the feel of late winter settling in, and as I mentioned on the previous blog, only our high late April sun angle will keep Wednesday from feeling like a winter day with a temperatures considerably below normal and a gusty wind. Also look for some fair weather clouds to pop on Wednesday due to even colder air aloft. Many times in the spring we see things slow down in the atmosphere and systems hang around for days at a time. That is not the case with the current pattern and as quickly as we lose the influence of the cold front and the windy chilly Wednesday we’ll be seeing more changes Thursday and Friday. First a warm front approaches Thursday and sends the clouds back in, but that front won’t ever make it through here as its parent low will track south of the region early Friday, spreading a shield of rain across much of the region, steadiest/heaviest to the south, before moving out late in the day and allowing a drier interlude to take place Saturday as a small area of high pressure moves in.
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Clouding over afternoon with showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east by later in the afternoon. Showers/storms may be heavy and contain small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Showers end west to east early followed by clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds forming. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate evening. Clear overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight, especially southern areas. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with rain likely south and a chance of rain north. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 26-30)
Active pattern with low pressure areas bringing chances of rain April 26 and lingering showers April 26, repeating again April 29 and 30. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 1-5)
Pattern relaxes a little. Still a couple rain shower threats with passing disturbances. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 21 2020

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 20-24)
A cold front crossed the region from north to south quietly overnight and will result in today being a slightly cooler day than yesterday. Also, a lot of cloudiness will be in the sky as a low pressure area passes south of New England but only close enough to bring brief rain today to Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and possibly the outer part of Cape Cod before heading out into the open Atlantic. What will not largely miss the region is the strong cold front that will charge across the region late Tuesday, a day that will be a little milder, but may end on the stormy side for many, as what will probably be a solid line of showers, possibly heavy, will sweep across the area between mid afternoon and mid evening. I’ll try to have this pinned down to exact hours for tomorrow’s update. When it comes through, expect gusty winds and at least moderate to possibly heavy rain for a period of time. There may be strong enough wind gusts for some localized damage, and some hail and rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out either, as this is a strong front moving into a somewhat unstable air mass with lots of cold air aloft. Behind the front it will clear quickly and turn windy and cold. The only thing that will save it from feeling like mid winter on Wednesday is the fact that it’s late April with a high sun angle. That will be a windy and chilly day with sun to start then lots of passing fair weather clouds. As high pressure builds in Wednesday night and early Thursday, it will remain quite chilly but become more tranquil as winds drop off, but already a warm front will be stretching toward the area and clouds will be on the increase Thursday. The low pressure area parenting this front will track south of the region on Friday, but probably closer than today’s system, so the idea at this time is to go for a better chance of rain for most of or all of the region, though it will still be more likely to the south.
TODAY: Thinnest clouds southern NH and northern MA with filtered sun and heavier clouds to the south with possible rain Islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 48-55, coolest Cape Cod. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts at times Cape Cod and Islands.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Clouding over afternoon with showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east by later in the afternoon. Showers/storms may be heavy and contain small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Showers end west to east early followed by clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds forming. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate evening. Clear overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight, especially southern areas. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain north. Rain likely south. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 25-29)
The pattern remains active during this period. There is a lot of divergence in medium range model guidance, which is not being taken too literally, but the general idea is that April 25 should be dry during the day but may rain at night. April 26 looks wet, with lingering instability showers April 27, a break April 28, and another chance of rain or showers by the end of the period. Fine tuning needed. Temperatures likely average below normal for the 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
A little relaxation in the pattern is possible, although don’t count on 5 dry days. Just think of it as fewer chances to see wet weather and temperatures that are a little bit closer to but still probably averaging somewhat below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 20 2020

8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)
High pressure sliding off the Mid Atlantic Coast exerts enough influence on southern New England for a very nice day today. That won’t last. A cold front drops through from north to south later this evening with perhaps a passing rain shower, and then a broad low pressure area passes south of New England by Monday night, spreading its cloud canopy over the region but keeping most of its rain offshore to the south. There may be some rain near the South Coast, up to I-90 at most, before it retreats and moves away. But the quick-moving pattern continues and we’ll be back to fair weather early Tuesday, and showery weather later Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches, then passes, setting up a windy and much cooler Wednesday with fair weather. By Thursday, a warm front will be approaching, and clouds will be on the increase once again.
TODAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible near the South Coast mainly afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast early. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers and a risk of a thunderstorm mid afternoon on west to east. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)
Rain likely April 24. Rain showers possible April 26. Rain possible April 27 into April 28. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)
Dry end to April. Rain showers possible in the early days of May. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 19 2020

9:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)
Storm system unfolded as expected, from the start as rain in many areas to the flip to snow in most areas to the areas expected to stay as rain, to the snowfall amounts. Meteorology over modelology. Some of the model forecasts were very poor on this event. Mid spring snow events do not behave according to model depiction of them, in general. So now this system will wind down gradually today. With April daylight, the accumulating snow is pretty much done, even though it continues to fall as of 9:00AM over a large portion of the region. But as we go through the morning and midday, the atmosphere is warming and a lot of that snow will mix with and turn to light rain/drizzle before tapering to showers and gradually ending as drier air works in behind the departing low pressure area. And as is typical of spring, tomorrow you’d never know this happened as all the snow will be long gone and we’ll have a fair and much milder day ahead of a cold front. That front will slide across the region from north to south early Monday just before a wave of low pressure passes south of the region Monday night. This low should be a miss for most of the region but can be close enough for some South Coast rainfall late Monday. Tuesday looks milder again but yet another cold front will charge toward the region bringing a rain shower risk by Tuesday night, followed by fair and cooler weather Wednesday.
TODAY: Snow (rain South Coast) turns to light rain / drizzle from south to north then tapers to showers before ending west to east later. No additional snow accumulation. Highs 45-52, occurring late day. Wind N under 10 MPH morning, NW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)
Dry April 23. Rain likely April 24. Rain showers later April 25 into April 26. Dry April 27. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)
Rain shower risk April 28 and possibly again by the first couple days of May. Temperatures near normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 18 2020

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)
You never call the snow season over in February, March, or even April, around here. Yes, it’s fairly rare to get measurable snow on any given day in April, but since Logan Airport averages over 1 inch of snow for the month of April, you know that it happens sometimes. Will Logan measure in this system? I think so. Will it be over 1 inch? Tough call. For snowfall accumulation in April you often need elevation, which will help in this situation, but it’s also going to be a nighttime event with cold air above us, even though the surface air will be above freezing and the ground temperatures considerably above freezing. So we have competing factors here with regards to accumulating snowfall. In fact it will be mild enough so that a fairly large portion of the region will see raindrops to start out before it cools enough for a flip to snow. I do think it may snow heavily enough for long enough during the dark hours to manage to get measurable snow right at the airport, but it may only be a thick coating, to perhaps 1 inch maximum, which will also be the case down the coast to north of Plymouth, over to near Providence RI, then southwestward into eastern CT. South of there, probably nothing more than flakes in the air in an otherwise mainly rain event, and even a burst of snow in those locations would be falling into air and onto ground to warm to really accumulate at all. Heading north from there is where 1 to 3 inches will accumulate, but mainly on grass, dirt, and cold vehicle tops, etc. The amounts will probably be on the lower side of that range and may not even make 1 inch from the Merrimack Valley to southeastern NH where the precipitation will be lighter. Add elevation, such as the Worcester Hills, then 3-5 inch amounts are possible, though I think that the lower side of that range is also the way it will go. You’d need heavier precipitation for as long as possible to get higher amounts and that may not be possible with the heavier bands remaining to the south, but there with a milder surface you’ll still need some elevation to realize anything more than the lower side of the range. For pavement and cement, cut these amounts at least in half. This event will be caused by low pressure passing just south of New England as it moves west to east and will wind down early Saturday, though it may take much of the day for clearing to begin. The balance of the weekend sets up to be nice on Sunday as a small area of high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic and we turn mild with fair weather. Two systems will miss a phase on Monday, which will probably be an unsettled day with cloudiness and at least a chance of some rain, but the bulk of rainfall from low pressure passing to the south of the region may miss to the south. Still have to watch that as it’s not a certainty yet. A cold front will charge across the region west to east Tuesday with a rain shower threat.
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arrives as mostly rain, then turning to mainly snow, except mixed with rain at times Merrimack Valley and southeastern NH and down the eastern coastline to north of Plymouth, but mainly rain from Plymouth southward and westward along the South Coast region. See the discussion above for expected accumulations. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with lingering rain/mix/snow morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except E 10-20 MPH near the South Coast.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers, mainly afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)
Dry April 22. Low pressure area impacts the region with a rain chance late April 23 and April 24, and another low probably tracking further north brings a rain shower threat sometime April 25 into April 26.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27-MAY 1)
Temperatures near to below normal. Rain shower risk around April 28 and possibly again at the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – April 17 2020

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)
A disturbance moving through the region early this morning produces snow showers. This will be fleeting and gone by about mid morning. Dry weather will dominate from late morning today through the daylight hours of Friday. The next low pressure wave moves into the region Friday night and exits Saturday. This system has enough cold air to work with so that snow will fall for part of the region, but it will depend on both elevation to some degree and intensity of precipitation to a greater degree. Based on this, the best chance to see accumulating snow will be along the I-90 belt and southward for some distance, but probably not so much along the South Coast where it will be too mild. There’s also less of a chance toward the north from around the Merrimack Valley to southern NH because the intensity may be too light to drag enough cold air down from above for accumulation more than just a coating. Still may need to tweak this as the system’s precipitation shield will be fairly narrow, so check tomorrow’s update. On the heels of this system will be another more potent low pressure area that brings a chance of rain for Monday, although recent trends for this on medium range guidance has been to shunt it a bit to the south.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with a few snow showers (snow or rain showers near the South Coast). Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arriving, expected as mostly rain along the South Coast and mostly snow elsewhere except possibly still mixed with rain Merrimack Valley and southern NH. Accumulation of snow a coating to 2 inches, most significant I-90 belt including southern MA, northeastern CT, and northern RI, with up to 3 inches possible in higher elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering rain/mix/snow to start, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain possible overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)
Temperatures remain below normal. A few rain showers with a passing front April 21. Dry April 22-23. Chance of rain April 24. Clearing April 25.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)
Temperatures near to below normal. Rain shower risk around April 27-28. Dry weather either side.

C-19 Chat Post – April 16 2020